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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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54and56

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

lawred2

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

.

The responses are all quite well spirited as it goes.. it's quite funny without crossing into abusing auld Jamie.. much as it might be warranted

FrancieBrady

The EU building tonight. If it isn't a photoshop it's kind of amazing.

thecretinhop

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

politics is strange anything could happen if it fails what then?

imo all good for Johnson

pass: i got brexit
fail: see i was blocked vote tory to get Brexit

Atlantic Dawn

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

54and56

Bambi wrote: »

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

Completely disagree.

The WA ensures no hard border unless a majority of people in NI wish to impose one.

You can only have a soft or invisible border with the consent of the parties on either side. If NI no longer want an invisible border for some reason they should be allowed to make that decision.

FrancieBrady

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

.

It's vicious and he deserves a lot of it tbh.

Frank Bullitt

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

I was a little sceptic of the proposed arrangements earlier but having read through the thread my worries have faded away. Will have to wait and see how saturday pans out, I would be cautiously edging towards it passing.

I am the same.

Was texting my friend about it and how the deal looks, it all faded away once we asked each other how we thought it would do in the HoC. I am on the side of it failing.

Tacitus Kilgore

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1184872071291166723

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

I was a little sceptic of the proposed arrangements earlier but having read through the thread my worries have faded away. Will have to wait and see how saturday pans out, I would be cautiously edging towards it passing.

thecretinhop

i am not a fan of EU Varadkar etc but this deal does look decent, or best of bad bunch.
i am bewildered why DUP fighting it...

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/RickOShea321/status/1184793872314130432

This is a bit awkward...and also hilarious, and sad.

Kermit.de.frog

FT saying Boris is confident he can win the DUP over.

That means money and lots of it!

sondagefaux

Bambi wrote: »

For the last three years it was the risk their entire strategy was built around accepting. That if the Brits caused a hard border then so be it but they would not compromise on the backstop. You may have noticed Leo being quite vocal on the subject during the summer

That tune changed yesterday. Personally I think because EU got the compromises they wanted in other areas.

At least you admit the tune changed, you've some strange sorts of reverse brexiteers around here trying to deny the reality that:

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

In theory Stormont can opt-out. In practice, it won't.

If you know for a certainty that the Northern Ireland Assembly will never vote to opt-out of Northern Ireland following EU rules on product standards, customs and VAT, why wouldn't you allow the Assembly to have a say on the matter?

It's a theoretical concession that means nothing in practice.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the nationalist vote splits, it is irrelevant. Nationalists will never vote for a hard border. Alliance (Remain party) will never vote for a hard border. Neither will some unionists. The voting trend is towards the centre (DUP -7%, UUP -6%) which means that the Alliance party is burgeoning (+12%). Demographics are against unionism, for instance, younger voters tend to be less hardline than older voters.

Well played Leo.

Well at least you've shifted from denying its even possible to denying that its likely. I actually agree that it is unlikely but to a far less degree than you think it is

If the nationalist vote is split then you will have less nationalist MLAs returned and more Unionist MLAs returned, as happend in the early days of the Assembly.

Demographics has been delivering a united ireland for two decades now and its as far away as ever. Demographics will not deliver it, a seismic event that will force people into a binary choice will. Same with a Unionist Majority in Stormont.

Headshot

Guys when will we know the possible amendments for Saturday?

[Deleted User]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Arlene seems to think the deal won't pass.

But it's already looking VERY close and before Johnson starts the charm offensive on other MPs.

I predict this will pass on Saturday.

ERG’s Andrew Bridgen on board. Nicholas Soames says he will vote for the deal too. If BJ can pull all the Tory factions together, then its the Brexit leaning Labour MPs who want a deal that will decide this.

Dyr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In politics, you must assess risk and make pragmatic choices. Under this deal the risk of a hard border is vastly less than without this deal. Should Ireland and the EU have taken the risk that there would be a hard border either in two weeks, or in a few months had they held out on the backstop?

I don't think that would have been a wise choice.

For the last three years it was the risk their entire strategy was built around accepting. That if the Brits caused a hard border then so be it but they would not compromise on the backstop. You may have noticed Leo being quite vocal on the subject during the summer

That tune changed yesterday. Personally I think because EU got the compromises they wanted in other areas.

At least you admit the tune changed, you've some strange sorts of reverse brexiteers around here trying to deny the reality that:

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

[Deleted User]

I think it will be down to the number who abstain when it comes to voting, many labour MPs who have large leave constituencies will not want to go into the next GE knowing they went against their wishes.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1184872071291166723

EHGZwp6WsAAk-8g?format=jpg&name=small

Will he still go I wonder?

older by the day

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Absolutely no reflection on who it is who is selling them down the river. They're like a child holding onto the UK's ankles.

To admit that the English have thrown them under the bus blows their raison d'etre out of the water.

As bad as the DUP, this has proved that a Sinn Fein vote is a wasted vote. I'd say if the 6 county's sank over night. England or Ireland would not kill themselves searching for it.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

You have to love Juncker when asked about the 48% of the UK voting to stay in the EU

"They were right"

lol

I found the video

Kermit.de.frog

Arlene seems to think the deal won't pass.

But it's already looking VERY close and before Johnson starts the charm offensive on other MPs.

I predict this will pass on Saturday.

gooch2k9

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1184864463167676417

The DUP so concerned about something that they didn't want in the first place.

Absolutely no reflection on who it is who is selling them down the river. They're like a child holding onto the UK's ankles.

To admit that the English have thrown them under the bus blows their raison d'etre out of the water.

Headshot

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1184864463167676417

The DUP so concerned about something that they didn't want in the first place.

That's rich alright. They hate the GFA, they cannot stand it but they love bringing it into play when it suits their agenda.

They are vile party that are stuck in the dark ages and needs to be put back in their box never to be heard from

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

TBH I stopped reading after the first sentence. Read the GFA again. Pay attention to Tier three. Then read the wording of the referendum with regard to the amendments being dependent on the GFA

In politics, you must assess risk and make pragmatic choices. Under this deal the risk of a hard border is vastly less than without this deal. Should Ireland and the EU have taken the risk that there would be a hard border either in two weeks, or in a few months had they held out on the backstop?

I don't think that would have been a wise choice.

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

Still haven't admitted that you could not have forseen any of those events. So lets just take that you believe you could and now have no credibility.

The circumstances in which Norn Irish MLAs will vote for a hard border is really simple. A simple majority of them want it.
For me is that's as simple as all it takes for a united ireland, a simple majority in a border poll. "It could never happen" bollox to that on both counts, it could.

Current arithmetic in stormont is 40 unionist MPs, 39 nationalist MPs and 11 non aligned but frankly non-aligned is Alliance which is a very soft vote. Can unionists dominate stormont again? It's possible but unlikely in the short term.

All it takes is for the Nationalist vote to be split again (as was very common until recently) or for SF to screw the pooch (which they're currently doing) and you're looking at very dicey arithmetic in the assembly.

It's also possible that the continuation of this arrangement will drift the North towards a UI but yesterday it was impossible for Stormont to impose a hard border and today it is. Nice one

If the nationalist vote splits, it is irrelevant. Nationalists will never vote for a hard border. Alliance (Remain party) will never vote for a hard border. Neither will some unionists. The voting trend is towards the centre (DUP -7%, UUP -6%) which means that the Alliance party is burgeoning (+12%). Demographics are against unionism, for instance, younger voters tend to be less hardline than older voters.

Well played Leo.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1184864463167676417

The DUP so concerned about something that they didn't want in the first place.

axer

I think this deal is a bit disappointing. A hard border will affect the republic too but we have given the decision as to whether it happens or not solely to the north. If a hard border comes about we will also be affected by the violence and associated crime that comes with terrorism that could erupt along with the economic repercussions. The UK didn't have any power here when it comes to these negotiations, the EU and Ireland should have stuck with the backstop approach rather than this messy new "solution". We will have uncertainty on this island for years to come as a result of this deal.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Why, NI has effectively become a DMZ between the UK & EU, would be a great place to "repackage" goods to meet the standards of the other side.

Headshot wrote: »

Business rely on a stable long term plan, this will counter productive for them.

We constantly hear from businesses in the UK that they cant plan for the future because they don't know what is happening with Brexit, this is similar to what's going to happen in NI

That's true of most larger companies, but small companies and some larger companies can be very flexible, especially if their business model requires low skilled staff and simple accommodation. A warehouse type business could be up and running in weeks.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

This actually looks better than it initially sounds it means they need at least 40% of both sides or more than half of both sides in order to affect any change to the arrangements, if one side abstains the vote automatically fails to change anything by the sounds of it. Maybe thats why our good old Dumbass Fleg Party doesnt like it they cant force any change they need to get the other side to agree!

No, that section is for deciding if an extension is for eight years instead of four. If a simple majority votes to leave the arangement, then it passes and is put into effect two years later.