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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

Tony Connelly (who else) has an excellent thread that very clearly explains it here. Covers all the eventualities.

gmisk

EU leaders speaking decently and with great generosity as expected.
Leo spoke really well

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Tories think they can compete for Labour seats in the North. "Bolsover over Guildford", is a slogan I've seen, meaning they'll abandon a lot of their seats down south and target ones they believe they can win. Sounds risky to me but that's what they believe. Labour will still fight like dogs to keep their old base, wouldn't write them off completely.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Labour will need a strong manifesto, and they have the past 9 years of Tory Government to use as well. Will people really be happy to give the keys back to the same people that has made their lives hell and admit austerity wasn't really needed?

gmisk

Frosty Perception wrote: »

this is not a time for triumphalism imo.
tbh i dont think they (EU, BJ etc.) had any other choice except never ending paralysis. the irony is they could well end up having the best of both worlds, but are too obstinate/blind to see it.
they must be getting some serious flak from their constituents. i cannot believe business people, farmers in those parts are so docile.

and even the most staunch of DUP must also realise, that the majority of Brits now consider them a nuisance to put it mildly.

It is not triumphalism, the DUP have really played this badly, they could have positioned northern Ireland in a really excellent place, don't forget the majority in northern Ireland wanted to remain.
Instead they predictably yelled on about the union the union, got into bed with Boris and the conservatives and they happily threw them under a big red bus the first chance they had.

joseywhales

I am happy with that, even if they vote to leave(which is hard to imagine) it is real consent and fair.

The dup have been stripped down to what they are, a dying party that does not follow it's democratic mandate, not representing the interests of it's constituents. Instead they have let fear overcome them, institutionalized by their own rhetoric. Hopefully the alliance party dominates NI in the coming decades, so they can move toward a future dominated by the actual concerns of normal citizens.

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Johnson falling short seems to be the best guess right now.

The new WA would still stand of course : the only way the UK can legally leave the EU in an orderly fashion is via the new deal.

VinLieger

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Starmer is already trying to lay the ground work that this deal is far worse than Mays, if they can win that war over the message then johnson might be in trouble

gmisk

prawnsambo wrote: »

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

Brilliant news IMO.
They have already vetoed marriage equality in NI

prawnsambo

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

gmisk

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

I didn't think the DUP would have a veto?
At least that's what they said on sky news...

Mr.Nice Guy

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

gmisk

circadian wrote: »

They lost seats last time around, I would expect to see that trend continue after their behaviour over Brexit.

I'd expect the alliance to pick up some seats fingers crossed

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

Could be, it's all very volatile and Labour clearly have challenges, that's unquestionable. But so do tories and possibly even bigger ones. Also, we should recall that 2017 was billed as a brexit election yet polls show it turned out to be as much about other issues and if lab can repeat that they have a chance of doing ok. It's an if though!

one armed dwarf

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

Sam Russell

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

I doubt that. I never can understand a true Labour voter voting anything else.

The election will be fought by Labour on the Tory austerity, the sell off of the NHS, and the Nasty Party and what they have done to you, and will do to you.

Brexit will have happened or not, but Labour need to get the Tories OUT. [Least that is the line Corbyn will use].

[Deleted User]

joseywhales wrote: »

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

They lost seats last time around, I would expect to see that trend continue after their behaviour over Brexit.

ToBeFrank123

Joe_ Public wrote: »

One other factor is that a lot of the leave vote in 2016 was from people who never usually voted in elections, especially in more working class areas, so you're working off assumption they'll be mobilised this time too. A lot of them possibly, but you couldn't say it with any degree of certainty. Lot could depend on the campaigning.

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

FrancieBrady

joseywhales wrote: »

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

Think it might take a few election cycles. I'd expect a bit of manning the barricades first.

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

You can get 5/2 for a deal on Coral.

Powers have it 5/6 v 5/6 as in the note of that bet....

HOUSE OF COMMONS TO VOTE THROUGH WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IN 2019

So its not Saturdays vote as obviously their may be another vote before 2020.

On Betfair its 2/5 that the UK will not leave the EU by 31/10 which makes sense as its very much odds against they lose Saturday and require another extension.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157669732

joseywhales

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

RickBlaine

Varta wrote: »

So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?

No I don't think that at all.

Sam Russell

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

That maybe so, but the farce is not the lack of an election, it is the lack of a majority for anything. They have voted against everything and voted for nothing. It is not up to us or the EU to change anything just because they do not like it.

Other than getting a bit of sense, there is no real escape.

gmisk

DUP have been thrown under the bus basically?
And have no veto?
Lovely stuff

joe40

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

Surely it would be inconceivable that labour and the lib Dems would not force an election during extension period. Boris has a minority government so extension would guarantee a general election in the UK

Rjd2

gmisk wrote: »

I thought she said she wasn't running again?
Or did I imagine that?

Nope you are correct.

I forgot all about that.:o

prawnsambo

gmisk wrote: »

I thought she said she wasn't running again?
Or did I imagine that?

No, you're correct. She was going to be deselected anyway. Some talk that she's off to the BP, but unlikely in Vauxhall which was the strongest remain constituency in England.

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, these constituencies voted to leave, some with fairly significant Leave majorities. A vote for Labour would mean the whole sh*tshow is continued on again. They will veer towards Conservatives and Brexit party for one election only and that's all these parties need. Corbyn's wishy-washy approach is not going down well with anyone except maybe his Momentum base who represent a miniscule part of the electorate.

One other factor is that a lot of the leave vote in 2016 was from people who never usually voted in elections, especially in more working class areas, so you're working off assumption they'll be mobilised this time too. A lot of them possibly, but you couldn't say it with any degree of certainty. Lot could depend on the campaigning.

ToBeFrank123

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is nonsense.

There is no election due until 2022 under the FTPA and under normal circumstances if the Gov had a working majority. The Tories are disintegrating midterm and now, without the FTPA, they would call a GE, but cannot because they do not have the votes.

That is how the HoC works. The Gov needs to have a majority - but they currently do not, so they can be pushed around by the opposition.

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU don't want to be responsible for letting the UK crash out which is why they've agreed to the extensions. When Brexit fails, it needs to be the UK's own fault, not the EU's.

Change just one word 'letting' for 'causing' and everything changes. It's different now. The EU compromised and went back into negotiations on the WA once more. There is no reason to believe that they will do that again. And that would be the only purpose for an extension, because if the UK don't want this deal they can always revoke. It's up to them. For this reason it is very plausible that the EU have decide enough is enough.

Itssoeasy

So rugby World Cup games Saturday morning along with the brexit vote ? Amazing day of sport on Saturday and one for the ages.

The parliamentary arithmetic are tighter than a ducks arse from what I can see, and it was a quick glance at the wiki page of the commons make up and a very quick guesstimate as how many will and won't vote.