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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Dyr

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How is this different to for example , UK + EU went with the backstop, UK + EU agreed a trade deal, the backstop is removed , UK pulls out of the deal at some point down the line.

Because the Irish Government and the EU said that any deal would be contingent on the guarantees to the GFA that the backstop brought about being maintained.

Though in retrospect that would have probably turned out to be horse**** too :rolleyes:

Is there anyone here who's going to try claim that the Irish Government did not roll back on the 2 red lines that it laid down from the start?

Poor Theresa May must be wondering why the f**k she didnt get this offer from Leo, though I have an idea why

Tacitus Kilgore

Is this deal good from an Irish perspective? Are we now never more than 6 years away from a potential hard border?

I can't see how it's good for NI at all, (better than no-deal of course) but doesn't it just extend uncertainty into perpetuity? and basically allow brexit to re-emerge every 4 years.. I can't see much FDI happening in such a place for one,

Would love to see how this works from our perspective as I cannot get my ceann around it today..

Joe_ Public

If there is no extension that surely has to bring the question of a vonc back into play this weekend. Have to come up with alternative plan and very promptly.

dancingwith

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU have finally run out of patience with the UK political system and House of Commons game playing.

I agree, patience in the EU must be completely frayed. The French in particular are not in favour of an extension.

gooch2k9

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If there is no extension that surely has to bring the question of a vonc back into play this weekend. Have to come up with alternative plan and very promptly.

That would just cement no deal? If an extension is ruled out it's this deal or no deal.

I think it's just politics from Juncker. The EU want this done. They're not happy with it but have other things to deal with.

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Adamant about no extension if it's passed. Not if it's rejected

That is how I took what he was saying when being repeatedly asked the same questions by reporters who seemed a bit shocked at what he was saying.

By the end of the chat with the English speaking reporters he was sounding more like he was saying no extension ever again, and that is the bit they will be replaying on the Brexit propaganda networks.

But that still doesn't really change the options open to parliament. They can still reject the deal, they can still ask for an extension, it will very likely be given, but if not then that is still really the same place as they would be in anyway. They still have the options of a VoNC and appointing another PM and revoking/ asking for an extension in order to have a peoples vote.

The EU would not be looking very good if they rejected a proposal from a new PM for a revoke or peoples vote options.

ancapailldorcha

The EU must be expecting a request for an extension. They must know that, even being optimistic there is a real chance of this failing on Saturday.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU must be expecting a request for an extension. They must know that, even being optimistic there is a real chance of this failing on Saturday.

Don't believe the reports anyway. Too many bum steers already, fliers all over the place.

tanko

How can the EU trust the UK to operate their customs regime on their behalf?
Surely this is a recipe for disaster.

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can't see the EU refusing an extension if one is requested for a GE or a People's Vote. The chances of this getting through Parliament are sketchy at best.

You are probably correct, however, judging by the comment earlier fro EU that the DUP in or out was a UK issue, the EU seem to be distancing themselves from the UK and an extension is by no means guaranteed.

MrMusician18

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That's incorrect. The deal must be passed by the HoC or else he has to ask for an extension

I wasn't sure, thanks for clarifying.

The question is, will the European council entertain an extension request now that a deal is on the table, considering that the council concludes before the HoC vote.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Don't believe the reports anyway. Too many bum steers already, fliers all over the place.

Yeah. I should probably wait until more fleshed out analysis from The Economist or the FT appears.

Varta wrote: »

You are probably correct, however, judging by the comment earlier fro EU that the DUP in or out was a UK issue, the EU seem to be distancing themselves from the UK and an extension is by no means guaranteed.

I would disagree if it's to facilitate cancelling Brexit. It's why they've allowed two extensions already. I could be wrong but I shan't despair just yet (though I do wish I spoke German or French all the same).

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If there is no extension that surely has to bring the question of a vonc back into play this weekend. Have to come up with alternative plan and very promptly.

It might be too late. There is no guarantee now that the EU would grant an extension after a vonc. Brexit has gathered momentum over the last few weeks and it is belting along today.

Joe_ Public

gooch2k9 wrote: »

That would just cement no deal? If an extension is ruled out it's this deal or no deal.

I think it's just politics from Juncker. The EU want this done. They're not happy with it but have other things to deal with.

True, wasn't thinking properly. Have to wait to see if any truth in this, looks very doubtful to me.

LeinsterDub

Bambi wrote: »

Because the Irish Government and the EU said that any deal would be contingent on the guarantees to the GFA that the backstop brought about being maintained.

Though in retrospect that would have probably turned out to be horse**** too :rolleyes:

Is there anyone here who's going to try claim that the Irish Government did not roll back on the 2 red lines that it laid down from the start?

Poor Theresa May must be wondering why the f**k she didnt get this offer from Leo, though I have an idea why

You ignored my question. How is the current deal different to the situation I outlined?

fash

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Maybe they will, probably not, but it could happen. That depends on who the people of NI choose to represent them.

The structure of this is interesting though, that two year cooling off period is key I think. Will the DUP want to launch NI into an interim period with a clock ticking down to a hard border? What is the likelyhood that such a scenario would see the conditions for a border poll being met during that interim period?

There can be no hard border unless a majority of the people of NI decide they want one, that is good enough for me.

That is not really the reality though. The reality is "you will be stuck in a never-ending "when will the second shoe drop" purgatory that will destroy your economy until a majority votes for a hard border". That is not a good deal and incentivises a hard border. Furthermore, the border affects communities on both sides of the border - those on the Republic side have no voice in this despite being equally affected.

prawnsambo

Bambi wrote: »

Because the Irish Government and the EU said that any deal would be contingent on the guarantees to the GFA that the backstop brought about being maintained.

They've also said that they would be open to anything else that could replace the backstop as a substitute. And as pointed out, that could have been anything that came out of the future relationship. Or some alternative arrangement that emerged during the transition period.

Varta

The EU have been watching the UK closely. When they might have expected a vonc in Parliament, all they saw was opposition parties bitching and refusing to compromise in even the smallest way to bring a vonc. Perhaps they have simply decided walk away.

dancingwith

This is what Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, said about ruling out a Brexit extension. He was speaking to reporters on the “red carpet” where leaders speak to journalists as they arrive for the summit.

Asked if he thought the deal would pass parliament, he said: “It has to.”

Then he added:

Anyway, there will be no prolongation.

He went on:

We have concluded a deal. So there is not an argument for delay. It has to be done now.

Asked by another journalist if he would rule out an extension if Boris Johnson asked for that, Juncker replied:

I gave a brief doorstop with Boris Johnson ... half an hour ago and I was ruling out that there will be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal, we have a deal, and there is no need for prolongation. That is not only the British view; that is my view too.

Asked again if he would officially rule out an extension, he replied:

Yes. We have a deal. So why should we have a prolongation.

ToBeFrank123

dancingwith wrote: »

I agree, patience in the EU must be completely frayed. The French in particular are not in favour of an extension.

And everyone has run out of patience with the DUP. They are holding the whole of Europe up with their inability to say Yes to anything.

No matter what deal is brought back from the EU, the DUP will say No.

Duane Dibbley

dancingwith wrote: »

This is what Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, said about ruling out a Brexit extension. He was speaking to reporters on the “red carpet” where leaders speak to journalists as they arrive for the summit.

Asked if he thought the deal would pass parliament, he said: “It has to.”

Then he added:

Anyway, there will be no prolongation.

He went on:

We have concluded a deal. So there is not an argument for delay. It has to be done now.

Asked by another journalist if he would rule out an extension if Boris Johnson asked for that, Juncker replied:

I gave a brief doorstop with Boris Johnson ... half an hour ago and I was ruling out that there will be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal, we have a deal, and there is no need for prolongation. That is not only the British view; that is my view too.

Asked again if he would officially rule out an extension, he replied:

Yes. We have a deal. So why should we have a prolongation.

And I agree with him. Move on and work on the trade agreement now.

devnull

Frosty Perception wrote: »

could that be BJ/Cummings' cunning plan to circumvent the Benn Act.
quite simply the HoC could now have a very straightforward binary choice, ie take it or leave it (with NO DEAL).
if that is the case, then it's no wonder BJ is grinnig from ear to ear.

And if this is there way around the act and the remainers still vote against the deal then they could end up being the ones that trigger their country into a chaos of No Deal by their intransigence.

Their intransigence about going all for broke on revoke already cost them a soft Brexit in the indicative votes where the Lib Dems and the TIGs voted against everything apart from this and a referendum, where if they voted for a soft Brexit we wouldn't be having this discussion now.

Boris would then be laughing all the way to the polls with all the remain parties turning on each other no doubt that they failed to agree a deal so it was no deal.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

They've also said that they would be open to anything else that could replace the backstop as a substitute. And as pointed out, that could have been anything that came out of the future relationship. Or some alternative arrangement that emerged during the transition period.

I agree with this. It also completely neutralises the DUP blame game/conspiracy theory that we were in a landgrab or trying to trap them.

And it is more or less a backstop in reality anyhow.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And it is more or less a backstop in reality anyhow.

It's being called a frontstop by some, basically the same thing but upfront.

beggars_bush

so three years of messing about and a deal could have been done within a week

Water John

Of course Juncker gave Johnson as much umph as possible to sell the Deal. If UK want an Ext for a Ref they would get it. It's not this Deal or No Deal next Sat.
Johnson will try and spin it that way, but that's not his decision, that belongs to Parliament.

devnull

Water John wrote: »

Johnson will try and spin it that way, but that's not his decision, that belongs to Parliament.

No, it's a decision for Parliament and the EU.

dancingwith

It was all fairly predictable, the Tories are saying today that Boris got rid of the Backstop.
As far as I can see whats there in the new deal is effectively a new Backstop

murphaph

Yep I would like to see them take the deal and leave in an orderly manner with transition, but they will be non-members and far weaker in any negotiations. Couple of years for businesses to relocate to Ireland too.

I can't see it getting through parliament though.

Kermit.de.frog

murphaph wrote: »

Yep I would like to see them take the deal and leave in an orderly manner with transition, but they will be non-members and far weaker in any negotiations. Couple of years for businesses to relocate to Ireland too.

I can't see it getting through parliament though.

Hopefully EU council comes out tonight and say no further extensions.

Then it's deal or no deal.

A lot of Labour MPs won't stomach no deal.