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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

We are really specifically talking about the 19 lab mps who wrote to Johnson recently outlining their case for a deal. Obviously it's only speculation as to how many will cave but if Johnson is relying on them then he has merely an outside chsnce. Think that much is fairly clear.

Watch the herd move.

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems there might be some truth to it.

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/1184791671327936513

According to the UK government there will be an alternative process if Stormont isn't sitting.

Maybe I'm interpreting it wrong but it sounds like if unionists have the numbers to get to the 46 majority mark in Stormont in a future election then they would have the potential to determine what happens, even if Stormont were to be brought down again?

Take a step back from this for a second: if a majority in the assembly wish to step out of the provisions that would indicate something fundamentally wrong with the arrangement. And if that happens everyone has two years to figure that out in line with the GFA.

In reality, the majority of people and therefore representatives in NI will be happy with what has been proposed and it’s highly unlikely we end up in such a scenario.

In many respects, this is a good thing as a definite complacency had taken hold regarding the peace process. NI needs constant work, constant dialogue, constant reaffirmations of consent on all sides for decades to come before we can truly put the past to bed.

Varta

munstermagic11 wrote: »

They were last time as well. How did those votes go?

As I have said, their backs were not against the wall at that time.

Dyr

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems there might be some truth to it.

https://twitter.com/markdevenport/status/1184791671327936513

According to the UK government there will be an alternative process if Stormont isn't sitting.

Maybe I'm interpreting it wrong but it sounds like if unionists have the numbers to get to the 46 majority mark in Stormont in a future election then they would have the potential to determine what happens, even if Stormont were to be brought down again?

Leo has gone from "No hard border in Ireland" to "No hard border in Ireland unless the NI assembly says there is"

Fairly spectacular reversal.

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

I think you are taking an ideological stance. It is a fact that a huge number of Labour constituencies are pro brexit. Objectively, this could be a deciding factor.

i'm really not i'm basing my position purely on what those mp's have done repeatedly when faced with this exact situation.
the talk of 15-18 labour rebels is based on wishful thinking by right wing commentators, those numbers have been bandied about before every vote and have never materialized.

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

Watch the herd move.

Well who knows but there is absolutely no solid basis to suppose any significant lab support. None whatsoever unless you happen to be the most blinkered brexiter optimist.

Akrasia

farmchoice wrote: »

the vote will be on Saturday most likely
as of now it does not look good for johnson, he doesn't have the dup, a number of ex tory mp's will continue to vote against him and in the last little while Ian Duncan smith has come out against the deal apparently which means more ERG will follow.
this will leave him any where between 10 and 50 short.

what might pass though is amendment to hold a second referendum.

Also worth considering is that there is a massive protest planned for London on Saturday which is calling for a 2nd referendum. This protest could be over a million people strong and will be audible from westminster while the HOC are debating this.

It's going to be hard for conservatives to be banging on about the will of the people while a million people are on the streets demanding a 2nd referendum

Imreoir2

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

From a cynical view, we can only assume that this is at least partly posturing before an election. Boris has to try to build a coalition of support behind him to form a government, hard Brexiteers who largely back Borris at this point are important to that but not enough by themselves. He needs to try to keep the One Nation Torys on side at least to some extent. Trying to get a deal with the EU, even if it is rejected by parliament, is how he does that. If there is no Brexit deal by the 31st, that can be blamebd on remainers, the Lib-Dems and Labour and not Borris, at least within the conservative ranks.

farmchoice

Varta wrote: »

As I have said, their backs were not against the wall at that time.

well their backs are probably less against the wall this time as the benn act pretty much guarantees an extension.

Zubeneschamali

Varta wrote: »

I think you are taking an ideological stance. It is a fact that a huge number of Labour constituencies are pro brexit. Objectively, this could be a deciding factor.

Why didn't they pass May's deal, which was a better deal than this one?

1st meaningful vote on 15th January 2018, 3 Labour MPs voted for it.

2nd meaningful vote on 12th March, again 3 Labour votes.

3rd meaningful vote on 29th March, 5 Labour votes.

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

i'm really not i'm basing my position purely on what those mp's have done repeatedly when faced with this exact situation.
the talk of 15-18 labour rebels is based on wishful thinking by right wing commentators, those numbers have been bandied about before every vote and have never materialized.

Again, it is different now. It is crunch time. Forget about right or left wing commentators and focus on the reality of what is actually happening. This thing is moving again and gathering momentum.

Dyr

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

In reality, the majority of people and therefore representatives in NI will be happy with what has been proposed and it’s highly unlikely we end up in such a scenario.

It was highly unlikely that UK would leave the EU
It was highly unlikely that Boris would be PM
It was highly unlikely that Dominic Cummings would be spearheading the UK governments withdrawal negotiations
It was highly unlikely that Jeremy Corybn would be leading the Labour Party in the UK.

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

Leo has gone from "No hard border in Ireland" to "No hard border in Ireland unless the NI assembly says there is"

Fairly spectacular reversal.

Like I said earlier this week, demographics would have them heading to a united ireland referendum sooner than them dropping out of this.

Mr.Nice Guy

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Take a step back from this for a second: if a majority in the assembly wish to step out of the provisions that would indicate something fundamentally wrong with the arrangement. And if that happens everyone has two years to figure that out in line with the GFA.

In reality, the majority of people and therefore representatives in NI will be happy with what has been proposed and it’s highly unlikely we end up in such a scenario.

In many respects, this is a good thing as a definite complacency had taken hold regarding the peace process. NI needs constant work, constant dialogue, constant reaffirmations of consent on all sides for decades to come before we can truly put the past to bed.

Can't see the DUP ever being happy this. After all, the majority of NI were happy with the GFA and that didn't matter a jot to them. And I wouldn't be confident the UUP will differ substantially to them if the majority of unionists indicate strong opposition to this, which is looking likely.

I don't see this as a good thing at all. It plunges NI into a continuing cycle of arguments about the EU, borders and regulations. It will exacerbate the differences between unionism and nationalism.

Perhaps it won't matter in the long run as a border poll might not be far off.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Varta wrote: »

As I have said, their backs were not against the wall at that time.

Means nothing. We've been here before. DUP for example would prefer a hard Brexit than this deal. Early indications suggest the spin game has only just begun before Saturdays vote.

Zubeneschamali

Bambi wrote: »

Leo has gone from "No hard border in Ireland" to "No hard border in Ireland unless the NI assembly says there is"

Fairly spectacular reversal.

On the ground, the situation has gone from "Hard border in Ireland on 1st November until the UK are so humiliated in trade talks that they concede some sort of backstop, which might take 10 years or never happen" to "No hard border in Ireland for 7 years, and then only if MLAs take leave of their senses".

Varta

farmchoice wrote: »

well their backs are probably less against the wall this time as the benn act pretty much guarantees an extension.

1. Do MPs from Labour pro-brexit constituencies want another extension? Maybe yes and maybe no.

2. The Benn act doesn't guarantee anything until it has been tested and Johnson's camp are playing that one very close to their chests.

Take a moment to review the behaviour of the opposition over the past year or so. They have been all over the place, squabbling amongst themselves. The chances of them stooping this now are growing weaker... not stronger.

golfball37

I hope this gets passed in the HOC. Whilst Brexit is bad for Ireland it would be ridiculous and make a laugh of democracy if Britain didn't leave the EU after the result in 2016.

Joe_ Public

If Labour imposes 3 line whip, which you'd suspect they might, what do potential lab rebels do then? Vote for deal and they can't stand for party next election. How many would defy whip in that scenario?

Kermit.de.frog

The DUP are always going to vote against ANY change.

To vote for it is to own it.

They have to be seen not to own it.

Akrasia

It's kind of funny that they were so opposed to the backstop, and now it has been removed, and turned into a 'frontstop'

The word 'Frontstop' is already an active hashtag on twitter

VinLieger

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Can't see the DUP ever being happy this. After all, the majority of NI were happy with the GFA and that didn't matter a jot to them. And I wouldn't be confident the UUP will differ substantially to them if the majority of unionists indicate strong opposition to this, which is looking likely.

I don't see this as a good thing at all. It plunges NI into a continuing cycle of arguments about the EU, borders and regulations. It will exacerbate the differences between unionism and nationalism.

Perhaps it won't matter in the long run as a border poll might not be far off.

I disagree if anything this gives moderates on both sides the badly needed middle ground of something they can both agree on to finally shift NI politics away from the extremes of both sides.

That is part of why the DUP hate it it loosens their grips on the protestant vote pool because people simply will not want to vote for a party that is pro a hard border when voting them in very possibly could lead to one.

Varta

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why didn't they pass May's deal, which was a better deal than this one?

1st meaningful vote on 15th January 2018, 3 Labour MPs voted for it.

2nd meaningful vote on 12th March, again 3 Labour votes.

3rd meaningful vote on 29th March, 5 Labour votes.

Again, it's down to how people react when they feel that their backs are to the wall. I'm not predicting a raft of Labour support for Johnson, I'm saying he is going to get some and it will be considerably more than 3 to 5.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Varta wrote: »

Take a moment to review the behaviour of the opposition Government over the past year or so. They have been all over the place, squabbling amongst themselves.

Corrected your post.
Not denying that the opposition has been poor, but this has been a government led farce.

Water John

Even if he loses the vote on Saturday, it will be by a smallish margin. He has the fall back position of taking it into a GE.
Do 18Lb MPs vote for it?

Igotadose

golfball37 wrote: »

I hope this gets passed in the HOC. Whilst Brexit is bad for Ireland it would be ridiculous and make a laugh of democracy if Britain didn't leave the EU after the result in 2016.

A slight majority voted on a non-binding referendum. Now, an enormous portion of the population wants a confirmatory vote on what's being proposed. Democracy at its finest.

The gaslighting is amazing. Brexit in ANY form is BAD for all involved. Bad for Ireland, NI, UK, Europe and the rest of the world.

Mr.Nice Guy

VinLieger wrote: »

I disagree if anything this gives moderates on both sides the badly needed middle ground of something they can both agree on to finally shift NI politics away from the extremes of both sides.

That is part of why the DUP hate it it loosens their grips on the protestant vote pool because people simply will not want to vote for a party that is pro a hard border when voting them in very possibly could lead to one.

The extremes of both sides will be the ones who gain from this as it brings constitutional issues to the fore, and will sideline issues like health, education, housing etc.

You've a lot of faith in the pragmatism of a body that isn't in place at the moment because unionists can't stomach a basic Irish language act.

Varta

funkey_monkey wrote: »

This dropping of the backstop and replacement with a vote is an awful idea - I'm not sure how Leo and the EU agreed to it.
Apart from the instability it causes for business - which they stated the first time this proposal was mooted - I just can't see it being a good idea.

It gives unionist business people a few years out of the heat of battle to make the point clear to their representatives that they want to stay close to the EU.

Dyr

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

On the ground, the situation has gone from "Hard border in Ireland on 1st November until the UK are so humiliated in trade talks that they concede some sort of backstop, which might take 10 years or never happen" to "No hard border in Ireland for 7 years, and then only if MLAs take leave of their senses".

Thats some Mark Francois level dissembling right there. You can spin all you like but the Irish Government just ran straight over its main red line to get this deal done, that it would not agree to anything that could create a hard border on this Island.

They've basically handed responsibilty for the GFA over to Stormont.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

Highly unlikely doesn't cut it when it comes the putting a hard border on this Island

If an informed majority in NI want a hard border, and the abandonment of the GFA, then the peace process is effectivly dead anyway. No point trying to hang on to a peace agreement that the people no longer support.