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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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10000maniacs

I don't know why investors are buying sterling. We all know the deal is not going to get through the HOC.
It will be at least 40 shy of 320.
Unless Johnson adds a second referendum stipulation to the deal.

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit Hardman Steve Baker supports it, and he carries enormous weight with these goons. If he's behind it, can only assume he will take the majority of the ERG with him.

Would majority even be enough though? Two or three erg voting against would be a big enough problem on it's own.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Problem with Twitter people just rushing to get even the flimsiest of news out there, desperate to be first. Should have higher standards.

I think it is the same as Tony Connolly last night, the news from Brussels from EU sources is different from the UK. It seems to me that the information being passed to the EU is not reliable (shock and horror that a Johnson Government is spreading lies) and thus we are getting conflicting information.

The problem I see if they are trying to bump the DUP into a deal is that it will have the opposite effect. At the very least if it was me I would buckle down out of hardheadedness.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184767658966822913?s=20

Kermit.de.frog

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit Hardman Steve Baker supports it, and he carries enormous weight with these goons. If he's behind it, can only assume he will take the majority of the ERG with him.

Yes.

When push comes to shove these guys will not be taking a bullet for NI.

They don't care one jot about NI.

LeinsterDub

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit Hardman Steve Baker supports it, and he carries enormous weight with these goons. If he's behind it, can only assume he will take the majority of the ERG with him.

Majority isn't good enough however ,they need every vote

robinph

joe316 wrote: »

One useful outcome out of this morning's shenagins is that the UK mainland will be seeing first hand, how braindead, awkward and self serving, the knuckle draggers that call themselves the DUP are.

The DUP are idiots, but at this point in time I'm delighted that they are continuing along that line. If they were to agree to anything then there is a chance that Brexit could happen in two weeks time, so whilst they continue to shoot themselves in the foot multiple times as they can't understand what they are doing it's all fine with me.

Bring on the Benn Act and the extension.

[Deleted User]

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Problem with Twitter people just rushing to get even the flimsiest of news out there, desperate to be first. Should have higher standards.

True. Peter Foster is after doing a u turn.............

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184768544673845249?s=20

Enzokk

In any case this deal will not be ratified before the weekend. It seems a text can be agreed but the deal will need approval from the EU parliament and they are not sitting until next week.

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1184613116123987969?s=20

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

I think it is the same as Tony Connolly last night, the news from Brussels from EU sources is different from the UK. It seems to me that the information being passed to the EU is not reliable (shock and horror that a Johnson Government is spreading lies) and thus we are getting conflicting information.

The problem I see if they are trying to bump the DUP into a deal is that it will have the opposite effect. At the very least if it was me I would buckle down out of hardheadedness.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184767658966822913?s=20

I agree. Connelly did get it wrong but I'm not going to hammer him for it, he had multiple sources and was genuine. But yes, I do think it is UK gov giving them a bum steer and they should definitely be more cognizant of it.

Hurrache

jm08 wrote: »

Boris presumably is going to try and get the hardliners in ERG onside.

If he doesn't and they crash out with no deal, or asks for an extension, his political career as a PM has to end.

First reason is that he fails to get his deal over the line and therefore basically doesn't have the confidence in his own party.

Secondly, his dead in a ditch claims will kill him if he asks for an extension and is not out of the EU by the 31st.

The author of the "Burned" (the cash for ashes book), Sam McBride, is on Sean O'Rourke and has said Foster is terrible for details, which should worry the DUP. It may also explain why on so many occasions they appear to have rowed back on things, she agrees to something not knowing the details, someone else comes along and points out stuff, and she's oh yeah, maybe not.

Tell me how

Adam Boulton chairing a very interesting debate on Sky.
Poland, Finland, Ireland, France and Germany represented.
Mairead McGuinness doing very well.

None of the 5 guests think that the UK will actually be outside the EU on the 1st November.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Peter Foster (Telegraph) thinks they are on board.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1184764123822903296?s=20

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1184766292953325568

We need to get it from the horse's mouth. People saying both

There were reports earlier this week saying the DUP was split, so it may be depending on which side of the DUP are talking!

Joe_ Public

robinph wrote: »

The DUP are idiots, but at this point in time I'm delighted that they are continuing along that line. If they were to agree to anything then there is a chance that Brexit could happen in two weeks time, so whilst they continue to shoot themselves in the foot multiple times as they can't understand what they are doing it's all fine with me.

Bring on the Benn Act and the extension.

Absolutely. Dup are remainers biggest friends at the moment, my enemy's enemy kind of way. Strange alliance you'd have to say but this is brexit, anything goes.

LeinsterDub

The good law project are going to take the deal to court . They contend it's illegal due to JRM's law

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

Adam Boulton chairing a very interesting debate on Sky.
Poland, Finland, Ireland, France and Germany represented.
Mairead McGuinness doing very well.

None of the 5 guests think that the UK will actually be outside the EU on the 1st November.

I laughed when it was mentioned that the EU needs to be careful that the UK doesn't become a tax haven and Boulton said his information is that the level playing field has been agreed. The response I believe from the German contributor (I believe) was priceless, "Why would you leave the EU then?"

Zubeneschamali

10000maniacs wrote: »

It will be at least 40 shy of 320.
Unless Johnson adds a second referendum stipulation to the deal.

It isn't up to Johnson anymore, he doesn't have a majority. Labour+SNP+LibDems+Ex-tories have the numbers to add an extension+referendum to the deal in the HoC.

Not Labours ideal play, since they would prefer to have a Remain vs. Norway referendum, but maybe they will go for it. LibDems would prefer Remain vs. This Deal, since this deal is a lot worse than any Norway and less likely to win.

This deal with it's sweetheart treatment of NI is nearly as good as No Deal for the purposes of the SNP, so I'd say a ref. on this one would suit them.

[Deleted User]

Brexit Deal has been done and its time to move on, according to the EU. So it looks as if they have gone ahead regardless of the DUP's misgivings.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-deal-has-been-done-and-its-time-to-move-on-says-eu-38604208.html

Enzokk

Barnier press conference on now.

Kermit.de.frog

From the horses mouth in Downing Street

EHEmonqWkAAr34D?format=jpg&name=medium

"Special arrangements" = Special status.

Akrasia

This is the 2nd deal that has been accepted by the EU.

If the British Parliament rejects this again, then they will be the laughing stock of the civilised world (moreso)

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From the horses mouth in Downing Street

"Special arrangements" = Special status.

That is going fall apart under any scrutiny in the HoC, how can you be in a different customs union and keep a open border? You have a special arrangement, or the backstop by another name.

j8wk2feszrnpao

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

gooch2k9

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.

That will influence opinion in HoC.

Eric Cartman

Enzokk wrote: »

I laughed when it was mentioned that the EU needs to be careful that the UK doesn't become a tax haven and Boulton said his information is that the level playing field has been agreed. The response I believe from the German contributor (I believe) was priceless, "Why would you leave the EU then?"

Yeah, yesterday on twitter somebody was saying that the agreement specified level playing field rules and tax harmonisation to stop ‘singapore on thames’ and access to fishing territory , if theyre giving that up theres actually no point, those are 2 of the biggest elements of it.

I vote tax haven, its literally the only way for britain to come out of this profitable.

Tell me how

munstermagic11 wrote: »

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

To have Labour imploding over antisemitism during the most significant time in the UK's history since WW2 is something which consistently has to be considered as to just how bad they have been as cohesive party and him as a leader.

Akrasia

Nigel Farage will have a field day with this on his LBC show this evening. He will mobilise his brexiter hoards this evening to flood social media with soundbytes that include 'surrender' and 'sham' and 'breakup of the UK' etc etc

There is more than enough complexity and nuance in this agreement for the Brextremists to spin it any way they like.

I expect Farage to announce this evening that he will campaign against the Tories in the upcoming GE on the basis that this is not real brexit.

Dyr

jm08 wrote: »

If you are referring to the 'consent' part of the GFA being undermined, just heard Bertie Ahern say on Sean O'Rourke that this is not the case. The part about consent is to do with consent is the the only way there will be a United Ireland. This is not required by the GFA for divergence in Customs and VAT which is effectively what this is.

Bertie qualifies as both deluded and disingenuous

We're going to put the existence of one of the main principles of the Good Friday Agreement in the hands of Stormont and Stormont alone. Without requiring the consent of the British or Irish Governments or the people of Ireland, North and South, Stormont could put a hard border on this Island.

All on the basis of "Shur, what are the chances of it actually happening"

Beechwoodspark

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

Zubeneschamali

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.

Well, no, the UK can revoke A50 and forget the whole mess any time they want.

And if Labour with SNP backing were to win an election (unlikely I think), I don't think the EU would really say no to negotiating a deal based on different red lines.

Remind me

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.

That will influence opinion in HoC.

Pointless. This is a re-hashed original deal. The EU previously stated deal or no deal.

This will not get through commons. I would be sceptical of some deals done with DUP and that they might have done a deal to vote this down on Saturday.

Even someone like Boris knows this deal can’t be portrayed as a good one for him and that it is an old offer.

To me this is a waste of time and the situation is no different to a month ago.

Extension, get the UK to sort their sh*t out, if they return Boris at an election then no option but the deal to be passed.