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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Spanish Eyes

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

The erg are the hardliners against the EU. They are a subset of the Tory party. Approx 60-80 MPs as far as I know. Obviously their votes are required by the PM to get his bills through.

Why don't they establish their own party? Well I know why of course, but honestly, they have influence far beyond their representation. Most of them come across as total idiots, like Mark Francois and Jacob Rees Mogg. and some others.

They should be forbidden from calling themselves ERG, they are Tory elected. Bet they had Tory (Blue) stickers on their election day. Did they call themselves Tory/ERG? doubt it. So they got in by the back door.

And who are they researching anyway? I have not to date read an ERG paper. But that may be just me.

BarryD2

And we again may ask where will the SF MPs be next Saturday? Pulling their weight for Ireland? Sitting on their hands? If things go pear shaped for NI, let’s hope the respective voters of SF and the DUP kick them out next opportunity.

A Dub in Glasgo

BarryD2 wrote: »

And we again may ask where will the SF MPs be next Saturday?

You know the answer to that one

Mr.Nice Guy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no unionist veto there then.

That's fine for me tbh.

Not sure it is fine for me.

Imagining a scenario in which the unionist parties look like they have the numbers to return to the UK customs fold and they're thwarted by Sinn Fein pulling the plug on Stormont. I don't want to think about the fury that would generate within loyalist areas. 'Our Britishness is under threat', 'we're being annexed by Irish republicanism' etc.

Also not sure the Irish government has fully thought through the wisdom of effectively giving Sinn Fein the weight of responsibility in protecting Ireland's customs relationship with the EU for the forseeable future.

Kermit.de.frog

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Not sure it is fine for me.

Imagining a scenario in which the unionist parties look like they have the numbers to return to the UK customs fold and they're thwarted by Sinn Fein pulling the plug on Stormont. I don't want to think about the fury that would generate within loyalist areas. 'Our Britishness is under threat', 'we're being annexed by Irish republicanism' etc.

Also not sure the Irish government has fully thought through the wisdom of effectively giving Sinn Fein the weight of responsibility in protecting Ireland's customs relationship with the EU for the forseeable future.

Yes,

But the problem is you assume we will get everything we want and the other side can't even "pretend" they have got something they can use for their base in order to sell it.

That is not how negotiation works. There is always give and take.

We have advanced more than enough changes to meet the objective of no hard border.

If unionists want to comfort themselves with something in practice they would never use, good luck to them.

Tea Shock

After reading all the updates, I gave 2 thoughts

1: There is no way the proposals so far outlined are passing thru a HoC vote

2: If this does pass, the Government front bench are up to no good. We have been speculating for the last month as to why they were being so smug about whatever mechanism they had dreamed up to get around the Benn Act. If they support this, it was their trick all along. Undoubtedly!

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Lawson on newsnight earlier suggesting the "people" would burn down parliament if brexit was delayed again. Nobody skipped a beat. Sign of where we've got to with all this, I guess.

That's not what he said. He referred to this night 180 (thereabouts) years ago when parliament burned down and the public did nothing to help put out the fire. He then said that if it were to burn down after brexit was delayed the public would might react in the same way.

I'm not being picky, but misquoting and misattributing has been a serious problem in this whole mess.

Mr.Nice Guy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes,

But the problem is you assume we will get everything we want and the other side can't even "pretend" they have got something they can use for their base in order to sell it.

That is not how negotiation works. There is always give and take.

We have advanced more than enough changes to meet the objective of no hard border.

If unionists want to comfort themselves with something in practice they would never use, good luck to them.

The problem is you assume they will put pragmatism before patriotism and that is not the way those parties work.

Reminder Stormont is on ice at the cost of millions because they can't stomach a basic Irish language act. These are the guys who sat by and watched millions go down the drain over fleg protests like the Twaddell Avenue one that was a serious pain on public resources.

These are the guys we have to trust to look after our all-island economy, and if we're concerned they won't then we have to hope Sinn Fein risk the peace process by bringing down the Executive again.

Failing to see where the 'give' is here for us.

MrMusician18

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Honestly everything was going fine wasn't it? Until someone decided that UKIP might usurp things in time. Eu via Cameron was approached to see if it would change things to suit UK, non.

And then there was Brexit. Just a short summary!

And so here we are.

Everything was not going fine. The world had gone through the sharpest recession since the 1930s and just like then, ordinary people were led to believe that the cause of all their ills was the EU.

Of course it hadn't helped that the British media had free the UK public a diet of lies for the past 40 years wrt Europe.

Varta

The only interesting piece on Newsnight was the piece on NI where so many unionists seemed resigned to a UI.

Tea Shock

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Not sure it is fine for me.

Imagining a scenario in which the unionist parties look like they have the numbers to return to the UK customs fold and they're thwarted by Sinn Fein pulling the plug on Stormont.
.

I’m confused

I thought I read consent would be a majority of MLA’s present in the Stormont chamber? In which case SF not participating would merely make it easier for the unionists to win a simple majority!

No?

Kermit.de.frog

Tea Shock wrote: »

After reading all the updates, I gave 2 thoughts

1: There is no way the proposals so far outlined are passing thru a HoC vote

2: If this does pass, the Government front bench are up to no good. We have been speculating for the last month as to why they were being so smug about whatever mechanism they had dreamed up to get around the Benn Act. If they support this, it was their trick all along. Undoubtedly!

Apparently the UK has now signed up to level playing field conditions on regulations etc with the EU (amazingly) which means that is likely to attract Labour votes.

Mr.Nice Guy

Tea Shock wrote: »

I’m confused

I thought I read consent would be a majority of MLA’s present in the Stormont chamber? In which case SF not participating would merely make it easier for the unionists to win a simple majority!

No?

Power-sharing collapses when the Deputy First Minister resigns. That's how Martin McGuinness brought it down in 2017.

54and56

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I presume it is a simple majority in Stormont to overrule?

If it requires a 66% majority in the HoC to call an election why should anything less apply to NI on a vote to ditch the status quo arrangements?

Tea Shock

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Power-sharing collapses when the Deputy First Minister resigns. That's how Martin McGuinness brought it down in 2017.

That’s according to the GFA

This entire process being proposed is at odds with the GFA is it not?
Otherwise why would they be so explicit about the MLAs present

McMurphy

BarryD2 wrote: »

And we again may ask where will the SF MPs be next Saturday? Pulling their weight for Ireland? Sitting on their hands? If things go pear shaped for NI, let’s hope the respective voters of SF and the DUP kick them out next opportunity.

Not this shyte again.

MrMusician18

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes,

But the problem is you assume we will get everything we want and the other side can't even "pretend" they have got something they can use for their base in order to sell it.

That is not how negotiation works. There is always give and take.

We have advanced more than enough changes to meet the objective of no hard border.

If unionists want to comfort themselves with something in practice they would never use, good luck to them.

The problem with mechanisms that are often designed not to be used, often do get used.
Two examples:
The Scottish parliament was constituted in such a way that it was thought it would be impossible for the SNP to get a majority of its own, yet that has happened.
Art. 50 was designed to be so punitive that no right thinking nation would ever invoke it, yet that too has happened.

This simple majority NI assembly mechanism will almost certainly cause a crisis in time. Even the idea is odd, an international treaty laying down the mechanism how the UK operates that treaty internally. I don't think there would be much the EU could do if the UK Parliament as it's sovereign right, decided another way to resolve the border

Mr.Nice Guy

Tea Shock wrote: »

That’s according to the GFA

This entire process being proposed is at odds with the GFA is it not?
Otherwise why would they be so explicit about the MLAs present

The DUP seem to think that's the case. Foster was critical of Varadkar earlier for suggesting changes to the voting system.

They might all eventually come to agree on accepting a majority vote without any veto being used, but would there be more changes beyond that? Surely the ability of one side to bring down Stormont can't be changed since it's dependent on the sharing of power to function.

I'd be surprised if the DUP go along with it because it doesn't look great from their perspective. Suppose it depends how cornered they feel.

WomanSkirtFan8

Varta wrote: »

The only interesting piece on Newsnight was the piece on NI where so many unionists seemed resigned to a UI.

And that's in no doubt due to the hardline and absolutely bonkers position of the DUP. Because of their current stance, they're now driving a wedge between themselves and fellow unionists which can only result in disaster. :rolleyes:

J Mysterio

Worth mentioning that the chairman of the Ways and Means committee in the US, Richard Neal, reiterated his position on Brexit a few times over the last few days. I heard him on Radio 1 earlier.

Said that if UK cause harm to GFA and NI, they will not get a trade deal with the US. Says he said this ditectly to May when PM, to Corbyn, and more recently, to Raab as Foreign Minister. Reiterated support Pelosi, who herself made this point only so recently.

If there is to be Brexit, it's imperative for Johnson that he is seen to come to an agreement with Ireland and the EU on the North.

https://twitter.com/AnandWrites/status/1184604202171011073

RobMc59

Varta wrote: »

The only interesting piece on Newsnight was the piece on NI where so many unionists seemed resigned to a UI.

If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

Junkyard Tom

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Most of them come across as total idiots, like Mark Francois and Jacob Rees Mogg.

Jacob Rees Mogg is no idiot, it's worse than that, he's a calculating fanatic. JRM likely views Brexit as his Father's predictions of chaos and opportunity coming true. JRM's Father wrote that:

Societies would splinter. Taxes would be evaded. Government would gradually wither away. "By 2010 or thereabouts," they wrote, welfare states "will simply become unfinanceable". In such a harsh world, only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept person – "the sovereign individual" – would thrive.

theguardian.com/books

No doubt JRM is confusing accumulating wealth with talent and self-reliance, just as his Father seems to have. JRM is a guy who is so self-reliant he brought his Nanny canvassing with him - I doubt the guy could change a tyre or wire a plug.

Capt'n Midnight

Just an aside of how core values are being abandoned

Traditionally the Conservatives would label Labour as tax and spend.

For this election Tories are going on a full on spending spree , to be met by borrowing , because it sure won't be from increased tax revenue.

While the Tories are claiming that Labour will privatise everything take a wild guess at who is thinking of privatising Northern rail the North of England's largest rail commuter service currently owned by Arriva ?

[Deleted User]

Throw an automatic border poll on in the case of Stormont voting to bring back a border, or at least a referendum to confirm the return of a border.

BonnieSituation

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Much like Mayo in an All Ireland final I'll not get my hopes up. The odds are something will go wrong with this before Sunday.

Don't let BonnieDog read such tomfoolery.

[Deleted User]

Water John wrote: »

I have thought about it, why and when Johnson changed his approach and focus. Yes, there are reports that a detail on possible violence in NI affected him but I'm wondering was it something more personal.
I'm thinking of the public bollicking he got from his sister Rachel. Most men would actually be quite affected by how a sister would view their actions.

I thought it was a few weeks ago when he confidently flew to Europe with his ERG mates and then had to sit through their ideas being torn to shreds (followed by the no show press conference). Until then he probably did believe that his experts had a workable solution. Reports at the time suggested he sank lower and lower into his chair as he learned the reasons why the rest of the world called it unicorns. Kudos if he does bounce back with something more realistic though. Being PM must be a steep learning curve for him.

J Mysterio

Im surprised the negotiations have got so far. My feeling was Johnson wanted the extension and a GE to find a majority.

I'm more surprised about EU concessions though. Therenis movement from the UK, but it was/is much more important for them to find a deal. EU seem to have gone farther than could be expected to try accomodate UK's stated position.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

If this deal goes through then there is a very good chance that Scotland goes for independance within the next two years. Should that happen, then there is no telling how soon a UI might take place.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

I've seen commentators from NI say exactly the opposite though......they could see NI drift out of the UK's orbit in the next decade and into the EU's (which would be disastrous for the union).

kowloon

Where does the divorce bill figure in this deal?