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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

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FrancieBrady

is_that_so wrote: »

They're annoyed with the EU spilling the beans! I think they want to announce it themselves "reluctantly" upon mature reflection.

That or they are under a bus. Is Boris going to try do it without them?

Tea Shock

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Reuters reporting the NI assembly would have a vote every 4 years and this has now been agreed.

Johnathan Powell on Sky News now...

Still lots of questions if this is true

Is it opt-in or opt-out?

Isn't now the time to agree what happens in the event of the sea border being done away with some day?

Harry Palmr

Maybe the Tory whips think they have enough Labour votes, they have been talking after all.

Frank Bullitt

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Very confusing given the DUP are still out on the airwaves with demands.

I think it has more to do with them not being able to control the narrative on this. The DUP always fancied themselves as a big player in this, today, that changed.

Itssoeasy

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Maybe the Tory whips think they have enough Labour votes, they have been talking after all.

It's as good a call as any harry in this mental mess that brexit was at the start and has played out as such. Maybe the Tory whips have got the calculator out and carried the one and found themselves at the magic number to get a deal through Parliament and discovery that the Northern Ireland votes aren't needed. That would stink for Mrs Foster and her party a bit.

Mr.Nice Guy

Sounds like Johnson's side expect they will have a job selling it:

https://twitter.com/TimesONeill/status/1184513931634790400

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That or they are under a bus. Is Boris going to try do it without them?

With or without them! If he can find numbers elsewhere he might but as they are already inside the tent he'd rather have them on board I suspect.

Itssoeasy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Sounds like Johnson's side expect they will have a job selling it:

https://twitter.com/TimesONeill/status/1184513931634790400

So Boris is going to have to break out the old used car sales man lark is it ? I can't see boris Johnson being like Boycie from only fools myself.

Kermit.de.frog

When will we find out all the greasy details of this deal?

Strazdas

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Any word yet on how the NI consent vote works?

No, that's what they're debating right now with no details yet.

Harry Palmr

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's as good a call as any harry in this mental mess that brexit was at the start and has played out as such. Maybe the Tory whips have got the calculator out and carried the one and found themselves at the magic number to get a deal through Parliament and discovery that the Northern Ireland votes aren't needed. That would stink for Mrs Foster and her party a bit.

Of course some of those notional Labour votes might have a pang of conscience about "selling the DUP down the river"

What a poser for Kate Hoey

Itssoeasy

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Of course some of those notional Labour votes might have a pang of conscience about "selling the DUP down the river"

When you say votes do you mean vote ? I ask because outside of Kate Hoey who is technically in labour who else would feel concerned about throwing the DUP metephorically under the bus ?

Itssoeasy

I think it's a fair that's been made on BBC five live by Anna foster who is in Brussels prior to the summit tomorrow. It's that while it's encouraging to be at this point but "we've been here before six months ago." I'm not saying any posters here are getting ahead of themselves and I think it's wise to just stall the digger just a bit. There are many more steps to go before we might be able to open the slightly warm champagne.

gooch2k9

The Guardian referring to Tony Connelly as the man who moves markets.

Itssoeasy

gooch2k9 wrote: »

The Guardian referring to Tony Connelly as the man who moves markets.

Well he seems to have gold plated sources and is the guy that is seriously in the know and not like some of the British journalists.

devnull

Are we any further forward on knowing what this loophole is that Boris intends to use to get around the Benn Act, should a deal not be agreed or one be agreed but rejected by Parliament?

There's still talk about it today in the media that he will comply with the law but still leave at the end of October and it seems that there's been clear instructions to keep it quiet internally in the Tory party as you'd expect.

Eric Cartman

devnull wrote: »

Are we any further forward on knowing what this loophole is that Boris intends to use to get around the Benn Act, should a deal not be agreed or one be agreed but rejected by Parliament?

There's still talk about it today in the media that he will comply with the law but still leave at the end of October and it seems that there's been clear instructions to keep it quiet internally in the Tory party as you'd expect.

just piss the EU off enough that they say no, he only has to ask for an extension, not be granted one, could just ask for one and ask them to decline it at the same time.

Infini

Honestly regardless of a deal or no deal I simply cannot see anything passing the HoC right now UNLESS any deal comes with a referendum on that deal vs remain.

Adamcp898

Regarding NI; If it all comes to pass, and the NI Assembly consent vote every 4 years gets the rubber stamp, it could have the effect of re-cementing the polarised politics of the north with no return to the pre-brexit moderation of NI politics we had begun to see. Everything will be framed as nationalists trying to pull NI out of the UK and vice versa.

To think it's not even four years since people were widely commenting on how much the "middle ground" in NI politics had grown and parties like the Alliance were a mainstay at the big table. This whole fiasco has been such a mess.

Mr.Nice Guy

Perhaps we shouldn't get too excited for news this evening.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184528909850812416

is_that_so

Another version of where the DUP might be at!

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1184362807523008513

Cina

So the Sterling is gone up 5c against the Euro to a five month high of €1.16 - do people think it's going to continue to go up now or is it impossible to say?

Frank Bullitt

So, can someone clear this up for me.

If this deal goes through, does the rest of the UK still leave the SM and CU? So in essence they get their hard Brexit at the expense of NI?

is_that_so

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Perhaps we shouldn't get too excited for news this evening.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184528909850812416

Well, it is an EU negotiation. They never finish till the small hours! Ever!

Infini

is_that_so wrote: »

Another version of where the DUP might be at!

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1184362807523008513

Brown Envelope 2: Return of the backhander.

I mean seriously bribing the DUP worked so well the last time didn't it but wait a sec they didnt actually GET the money last time tho right? :P

A Shropshire Lad

So, the UK is negotiating with the EU in Brussels, and Boris is still negotiating with the ERG and DUP in London.
I dont understand how that works

is_that_so

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

So, the UK is negotiating with the EU in Brussels, and Boris is still negotiating with the ERG and DUP in London.
I dont understand how that works

Eu-> Actual deal - DUP, ERG-> Votes to pass the deal!

Imreoir2

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Regarding NI; If it all comes to pass, and the NI Assembly consent vote every 4 years gets the rubber stamp, it could have the effect of re-cementing the polarised politics of the north with no return to the pre-brexit moderation of NI politics we had begun to see. Everything will be framed as nationalists trying to pull NI out of the UK and vice versa.

To think it's not even four years since people were widely commenting on how much the "middle ground" in NI politics had grown and parties like the Alliance were a mainstay at the big table. This whole fiasco has been such a mess.

As long as the mechanism does not allow the DUP to veto NI entering or remaning in the arangement, then it may well settle down fairly quickly once it is in opperation for a few years. There is little enough electoral hay to be made in trying to undermine the economic stability of your own people, at least not in the long term. It may well be the case that for all their hot air now, like with the GFA, the DUP will be defenders of these arangements in years to come.

If the DUP does not settle down on the issue, it might suit nationalists in NI well enough to have an economic realignment over time away from GB to the EU and the rest of Ireland in the background, while publicly the maintenance of the union with the UK represents a constant threat to the economic wellbeing of the six counties.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But it's still economic madness to have to have such a debate every 4 years. Very destabilising for business.

Latest survey by NI Chamber of Commerce
(77%) of respondents believe a recession is likely in the next six to 12 months.

And Half of those who took part in the survey have scaled back or put on hold investment plans so it's going to have lasting effects.

A Shropshire Lad

is_that_so wrote: »

DUP, ERG-> Votes to pass the deal!

Is that enough to pass it ?