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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Sleepy

What kind of chance has Boris of actually getting *ANY* deal passed by Westminster? He's the leader of a minority government and can't even rely on the votes of everyone in his own party?!

CelticRambler

Varta wrote: »

When you finally remove a parasite your first instinct is to crush it.

Not at all: if the parasite is any way interesting, your first instinct is to wonder WFT? while marvelling at it's ability to feed off its host so greedily and for so long. Then you stick it in a jar to be a lesson to others.

VinLieger

So here's my theory hes using the current pantomime to try and get him beyond the Benn act with Parliament and then pull the plug on it when its too late to do anything and then default into No Deal.

I don't believe Parliament will fall for it but its what he's trying to do.

ancapailldorcha

Sleepy wrote: »

What kind of chance has Boris of actually getting *ANY* deal passed by Westminster? He's the leader of a minority government and can't even rely on the votes of everyone in his own party?!

I wouldn't be confident enough that I would casually rule it out, put it that way.

The primary appeal of a deal is that it means Brexit is done, for now at least. He might be able to spin it such that Jeremy Corbyn will be campaign to thwart democracy and that he's the champion of Brexit. He also removes the motive for Remainers voting Labour on the basis of securing a People's Vote as well as neutralising Farage's Brexit party.

If the UK signs the deal, I don't know if it can still revoke Article 50 but I am sure that it cannot as the notice period will have expired. MP's will be voting on what is essentially a less favourable relationship with the EU than the privileged membership replete with veto and rebate the UK had previously enjoyed.

I do not think that this will pass in the House, ultimately. He needs too much support from outside his party to compensate for the loss of One Nation Tories, Free Marketeers and Whigs or the DUP and extreme Brexiters if it means keeping the whole UK in the backstop. Remember that the EU's 27 national and some regional Parliaments will need to unanimously ratify the deal if it is changed in any meaningful way so it seems likely that Johnson will be securing token changes and passing them off on the back of his popularity among the Conservative and Brexit faithful. An extension looks to be on the cards one way or another though. Of that, I'm certain.

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

Will NI be staying in the single market as well as the customs union? How does this affect free movement in NI?

Original proposal was they'd stay in single market for 4 years and then there'd be a vote, obviously that's going to be tweaked but principle will still stand. The CTA will also be in place but it's not clear how effectively it could function in the event of a hard brexit.

Tell me how

VinLieger wrote: »

So here's my theory hes using the current pantomime to try and get him beyond the Benn act with Parliament and then pull the plug on it when its too late to do anything and then default into No Deal.

I don't believe Parliament will fall for it but its what he's trying to do.

If that is the case, the EU will be bringing guns to the knife fight that the trade negotiations are actually going to be once this phase is over.

Even if they leave on a No Deal, it would be off the charts madness to imagine them not trying to negotiate with the EU and just looking to US, China, India etc and the appalling apathy which the UK government has shown for everyone including some of the countries in their union, the 16.2M who voted to remain, EU citizens living in the UK and the EU parliament itself will catch up to them eventually.

A Dub in Glasgo

Parliament hated Mays deal for other reasons (cannot remember them) not just the backstop. Now we hear everything is about replacing the backstop with 'alternative arrangements', does this mean the rest of Mays deal is still there?

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If the UK signs the deal, I don't know if it can still revoke Article 50 but I am sure that it cannot as the notice period will have expired. MP's will be voting on what is essentially a less favourable relationship with the EU than the privileged membership replete with veto and rebate the UK had previously enjoyed.

It hasn't been discussed here, but apparently Jo Swinson told Sky this morning that she would vote for a Johnson deal on condition that it included provision for a People's Vote. I didn't see/hear the interview, only the subsequent references to it. I'm sure Barnier could be persuaded to add a paragraph to the WA that would allow for such an eventuality, and it would hardly be seen as too problematic by the EU27.

The risk - for the Lib Dems and others who might follow them - would be that a Johnson promise wouldn't linger much longer than a fart in a strong breeze, and they'd have given away their chance at potentially king-making electoral gains.

Joe_ Public

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Parliament hated Mays deal for other reasons (cannot remember them) not just the backstop. Now we hear everything is about replacing the backstop with 'alternative arrangements', does this mean the rest of Mays deal is still there?

It was nearly all the backstop. Labour hated it cos it didn't suggest CU, close regulatory alignment and other protective measures but reason it failed was dup and hard Tory right couldn't stomach the backstop and from around that time they basically invented the myth that it was about a no deal/clean break brexit all along.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

When do the Nationalists get asked for consent?

None of what I said was intended as a joke. Anything that will satisfy the DUP will be unacceptable to the EU.

I care about Ireland but the interests of the UK should be paramount to the UK government,not appeasing nationalists.Does the Irish government care about or consult those in Ireland sometimes called "partitionists"?

VinLieger

Th DUP pretty roundly getting ripped apart on Eddie Mair is good to hear.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

It hasn't been discussed here, but apparently Jo Swinson told Sky this morning that she would vote for a Johnson deal on condition that it included provision for a People's Vote. I didn't see/hear the interview, only the subsequent references to it. I'm sure Barnier could be persuaded to add a paragraph to the WA that would allow for such an eventuality, and it would hardly be seen as too problematic by the EU27.

The risk - for the Lib Dems and others who might follow them - would be that a Johnson promise wouldn't linger much longer than a fart in a strong breeze, and they'd have given away their chance at potentially king-making electoral gains.

Pretty much the main reason that this is dead in the water. Not Swinson so much as MP's knowing better than to trust Johnson.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I care about Ireland but the interests of the UK should be paramount to the UK government,not appeasing nationalists.Does the Irish government care about or consult those in Ireland sometimes called "partitionists"?

I never mentioned appeasement. NI's government, or erstwhile government is based on power sharing. Giving one side a veto undermines this signals to Nationalists that they don't matter. NI is part of the UK so Westminster is supposed to look out for its interests.

trellheim

someone astutely came up on twitter and mention didnt JRM make an amendment to the cross border trade making an NI CU illegal

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1184413538351222785

(id forgotten about this )

Joe_ Public

CelticRambler wrote: »

It hasn't been discussed here, but apparently Jo Swinson told Sky this morning that she would vote for a Johnson deal on condition that it included provision for a People's Vote. I didn't see/hear the interview, only the subsequent references to it. I'm sure Barnier could be persuaded to add a paragraph to the WA that would allow for such an eventuality, and it would hardly be seen as too problematic by the EU27.

The risk - for the Lib Dems and others who might follow them - would be that a Johnson promise wouldn't linger much longer than a fart in a strong breeze, and they'd have given away their chance at potentially king-making electoral gains.

There is talk of attaching a PV to either the queens speech or any deal that comes before hoc over the next week. I don't know the complexities of it but there was a labour mp on earlier who was pointing out that it may not be as straightforward as people think, even if the house passed it, didn't mean it was going to happen. Like I say, I don't understand it fully but it may turn out that only realistic hope of PV is getting an interim gov in place and we all know the issues with that!

Kermit.de.frog

Why should the DUP have a veto on any of this?

I don't understand?

trellheim

tick tick tick . Mujtaba rahman says it might be held over .

is it just me or is everyone else just pressing F5 on tony's twitter page every couple of minutes

Strazdas

VinLieger wrote: »

Th DUP pretty roundly getting ripped apart on Eddie Mair is good to hear.

Nobody likes them, they don't care (to paraphrase Millwall fans).

Joe_ Public

Hilarious. Just hearing Peter foster on drivetime and apparently the EU is optimistic but the UK are losing hope. Couple of days ago it was the EU losing hope and the UK bristling with optimism. Will they ever achieve alignment? Very doubtful I think.

is_that_so

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I wouldn't be confident enough that I would casually rule it out, put it that way.

The primary appeal of a deal is that it means Brexit is done, for now at least. He might be able to spin it such that Jeremy Corbyn will be campaign to thwart democracy and that he's the champion of Brexit. He also removes the motive for Remainers voting Labour on the basis of securing a People's Vote as well as neutralising Farage's Brexit party.

If the UK signs the deal, I don't know if it can still revoke Article 50 but I am sure that it cannot as the notice period will have expired. MP's will be voting on what is essentially a less favourable relationship with the EU than the privileged membership replete with veto and rebate the UK had previously enjoyed.

I do not think that this will pass in the House, ultimately. He needs too much support from outside his party to compensate for the loss of One Nation Tories, Free Marketeers and Whigs or the DUP and extreme Brexiters if it means keeping the whole UK in the backstop. Remember that the EU's 27 national and some regional Parliaments will need to unanimously ratify the deal if it is changed in any meaningful way so it seems likely that Johnson will be securing token changes and passing them off on the back of his popularity among the Conservative and Brexit faithful. An extension looks to be on the cards one way or another though. Of that, I'm certain.

It's a win win for him and the HOC effectively killing the "potential" deal if it doesn't go through. That takes care of Labour as an option and Corbyn is done. He wanted that all along but why not do it by being in the good books of the EU and the British people. I wouldn't be so quick to call the HOC vote on this though. Some will vote against it on sight but no telling if they will all vote it down. In the impending election he will win and the vote will carry.

Call me Al

So DUP Jim Wells on radio now saying that re consent...
In the absence of stormont the issue would be decided by a committee comprised of Westminster MPs. And tough if SF have chosen not to take their seats
Like seriously still with this rubbish.
Not a hope that can fly, nor should it.

They're already talking about leaving the arrangement!

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

It hasn't been discussed here, but apparently Jo Swinson told Sky this morning that she would vote for a Johnson deal on condition that it included provision for a People's Vote. I didn't see/hear the interview, only the subsequent references to it. I'm sure Barnier could be persuaded to add a paragraph to the WA that would allow for such an eventuality, and it would hardly be seen as too problematic by the EU27.

The risk - for the Lib Dems and others who might follow them - would be that a Johnson promise wouldn't linger much longer than a fart in a strong breeze, and they'd have given away their chance at potentially king-making electoral gains.

It would not require such, nor would it really be approporiate for the EU to stipulate how a state must ratify a treaty. The EU requires that a state ratify a treaty under its own constitutional requirements. If the British Parliament decides that this inlcudes a referendum, then that is good enough for the EU. A several month long extension would be required to facilitate such a referendum so it would fly in the face of Johnsons stated intention to have the UK leave the EU within the next two weeks which is why it seems unlikely that he will choose to accept such a proposal.

FrancieBrady

Call me Al wrote: »

So DUP Jim Wells on radio now saying that re consent...
In the absence of stormont the issue would be decided by a committee comprised of Westminster MPs. And tough if SF have chosen not to take their seats
Like seriously still with this rubbish.
Not a hope that can fly, nor should it.

They're already talking about leaving the arrangement!

I hadn't heard them talking about that idea before.
If they are in Brussels trying to get that across the line, I sincerely hope there is 2nd one of those fly on the wall films shadowing the EU team. Would be fascinating.

Kermit.de.frog

Reuters reporting the NI assembly would have a vote every 4 years and this has now been agreed.

Johnathan Powell on Sky News now...

gooch2k9

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Reuters reporting the NI assembly would have a vote every 4 years and this has now been agreed.

Johnathan Powell on Sky News now...

With an absolute majority one would assume. How would that tally with the GFA? It's ardent defenders the DUP will ensure it is protected of course.

Kermit.de.frog

gooch2k9 wrote: »

With an absolute majority one would assume. How would that tally with the GFA? It's ardent defenders the DUP will ensure it is protected of course.

I think so.

But it's still economic madness to have to have such a debate every 4 years. Very destabilising for business.

Mr.Nice Guy

Significant update:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184508027728257025

Fascinated to see how they expect to win over the DUP on the so-called consent issue.

Headshot

Scotland will be in an uproar with the NI situation

Itssoeasy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Significant update:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184508027728257025

Fascinated to see how they expect to win over the DUP on the so-called consent issue.

They won't if history is anything to go by. Why would the DUP change a lifetime of being awkward to become suddenly helpful ?

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Significant update:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184508027728257025

Fascinated to see how they expect to win over the DUP on the so-called consent issue.

Very confusing given the DUP are still out on the airwaves with demands.

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Very confusing given the DUP are still out on the airwaves with demands.

They're annoyed with the EU spilling the beans! I think they want to announce it themselves "reluctantly" upon mature reflection.