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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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[Deleted User]

Tea Shock wrote: »

I hear the DUP are threatening to sue Merrion Press and Sam McBride over this new book but are unable to answer any questions about what is inaccurate within it.

The relevance being, if this is also going to get dirty, and a Stormont Vote is necessary to approve of new border controls, it probably won't happen if all this stuff is getting dragged up again

Huh...well I’ll certainly be buying that now, straight to amazon with me

The high horse brigade

It's ironic that this is needed
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-brexit-free-new-pop-up-channel-to-launch-tomorrow-at-5pm-11835610

farmchoice

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Katya Adler seems to have become more of a realist in recent weeks:

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1184113045787807744

katya adler has really upped her game since the summer, she has obliviously gotten sick of being fed ****e by her usual ''sources'' and has acquired some new ones, she has also started doing some critical thinking or someone else is doing it for her.

Kermit.de.frog

Guardian reporting BJ has accepted has accepted a customs border in the Irish sea.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

Tell me how

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Katya Adler seems to have become more of a realist in recent weeks:

I'd love to know the back story. A massive difference in a few weeks. The same on the Brexitcast podcast, much more realistic than previously where she used to seem to always want to put a semi-humorous take on the inevitable EU row back.

Think the shift came around the time Laura Keunnsberg was getting heat for pointing out guy who challenged Boris was a Labour activist.

Champagne Sally

If this is indeed true about a customs border down the Irish sea, what are the numbers do people here think for that deal in HoC, do you think he has the numbers to get this passed?

Sam Russell

Akabusi wrote: »

Yes, even if they are not fully on-board the EU is stronger with them in. You would hope that at some stage the likes of Farrage would stop being elected to Europe and they get serious politicians who are focused on bettering the EU as a whole.

Or even just bettering their own position within it.

For example, why do they not go for the full metric system instead of the half arsed system they have - milk in quarts, pints, half pints. Petrol in litres, but miles per gallon. Distances always quoted in miles. Butter in half pounds*, and everything sold in greengrocers is either by unit or by pound. However, plumbing is all metric (while we still use imperial). What a mishmash of standards.

They should accept Schengen and the Euro as it would give them better security for immigration and economically. They should also accept National Identity cards for the same reason (as should we).

They could also improve foreign language teaching in school (as should we). All children leaving school should have a working knowledge of at least one other European language.

Nearly 50 years after they joined and they are still a laggard at being European.

*(we still sell butter in pounds - and it is illegal in Ireland to sell butter in any measure but pounds and half pounds - it was to stop what is currently called 'shrinkflation where quantity is reduced to disguise price increases!)

farmchoice

Tell me how wrote: »

I'd love to know the back story. A massive difference in a few weeks. The same on the Brexitcast podcast, much more realistic than previously where she used to seem to always want to put a semi-humorous take on the inevitable EU row back.

Think the shift came around the time Laura Keunnsberg was getting heat for pointing out guy who challenged Boris was a Labour activist.

ya, i wonder was her previous ''source'' a Theresa may loyalist and with may gone she did not feel the need to pedal the ridiculous party line.

briany

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Guardian reporting BJ has accepted has accepted a customs border in the Irish sea.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

Agreed in principle.

OK, but we've been here before.

Last time, the UK used this just to get into phase 2. The EU negotiators would be morons to forget this.

gooch2k9

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184127055333605376

Tony killing the buzz. I'm not believing anything until it's official at this point. Too much shenanigans in all this.

EDIT: But maybe the Taoiseach just isn't in the know.

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1184125559212826628

Inquitus

Sam Russell wrote: »

*(we still sell butter in pounds - and it is illegal in Ireland to sell butter in any measure but pounds and half pounds - it was to stop what is currently called 'shrinkflation where quantity is reduced to disguise price increases!)

Well we sell it in grams, just so happens that gram amount corresponds to lb (454g)and 1/2lb (227g)

Hurrache

Champagne Sally wrote: »

If this is indeed true about a customs border down the Irish sea, what are the numbers do people here think for that deal in HoC, do you think he has the numbers to get this passed?

Mogg has been shaping up to eat his words, even to the point of comparison with Churchill. I think the rest of the ERG may follow suit, and there's even discussion that the only difference between what's looking possible now, and what May's deal was, is that one is from a bloke, the other a woman.

And no surprises what it has taken for the DUP to return Stormont without condition...
https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184127184199397378

Varta

One by one they have been called in to number 10 and Cummings has opened their dossier. And one by one they have realised that they will have to do as Johnson/Cummings wish. Thus we reach resolution.

Joe_ Public

Champagne Sally wrote: »

If this is indeed true about a customs border down the Irish sea, what are the numbers do people here think for that deal in HoC, do you think he has the numbers to get this passed?

Remains to be seen but on its own, i dont think its nearly enough. Whether DUP could be bribed enough to go for it is doubtful and how many ERG would stick with them is another question. Ultimately, i think it depends on how many of the Labour half-leavers he can get behind it and, without granting the further concessions that came out of the tory-labour talks back in the spring, i seriously doubt he'll get enough of them.

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

Mogg has been shaping up to eat his words, even to the point of comparison with Churchill. I think the rest of the ERG may follow suit, and there's even discussion that the only difference between what's looking possible now, and what May's deal was, is that one if from a bloke, the other a woman.

The possibility of Boris & Co getting a majority without the tiresome DUP in tow is a strong motivator. Seal the deal and that's what happens.

Sam Russell

Inquitus wrote: »

Well we sell it in grams, just so happens that gram amount corresponds to lb (454g)and 1/2lb (227g)

Not so. It is in pounds. It goes back a very long way. They just translated it into
metric. Kerrygold imported some of their 'spreadable' butter packaged in France in 250 g tubs but it was withdrawn for this reason. Their are other rules about butter.

We changed over a while back with milk to litres, but not butter. There was a rule that ice cream had to have a high percentage of dairy fat in it, but I'm not sure if that is still the case - probably not due to the single market.

Junkyard Tom

ZeroThreat wrote: »

From what I've seen, there seems to be an ingrained urge in the DUP to always react in a way to makes things worse or makes more certain that what they wish to avoid actually occurs :rolleyes:

Their political instincts just always seem to be wrong.

I find it difficult to understand just how utterly stupid they seem. Unionist politicians desperately need to court the moderate voter to secure their 'precious union' yet do little but widen the divide between people and alienate the middle ground.

is_that_so

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Remains to be seen but on its own, i dont think its nearly enough. Whether DUP could be bribed enough to go for it is doubtful and how many ERG would stick with them is another question. Ultimately, i think it depends on how many of the Labour half-leavers he can get behind it and, without granting the further concessions that came out of the tory-labour talks back in the spring, i seriously doubt he'll get enough of them.

DUP are deadweight. With a deal he can also appeal to those he kicked out. A deal puts Corbyn in a bind as to his legacy. Going down as the man who rejected it is a guaranteed election loss.

Joe_ Public

is_that_so wrote: »

DUP are deadweight. With a deal he can also appeal to those he kicked out. A deal puts Corbyn in a bind as to his legacy. Going down as the man who rejected it is a guaranteed election loss.

It could be tight. Just looknig at the numbers:

Tories including inds who lost the whip: 310

Lab, Lib Dem, Pl Cyn, SNP, Ind Group, Green: 310

So you can work out how many tories might go against it and how many of the opposition might go for it. Thats all a bit uncertain. If you were to add the DUP to those against, it makes a deal passing all the harder. As well as that, you have 13 independents left who could go anyway. It would be close enough but i'm not at all certain he can do it without the DUP.

Edit: just to say there's no way labour can back it. There are some issues for them in opposing a deal, but thats the thin end of the wedge. Under no circumstances can they support it, for a whole host of reasons.

gooch2k9

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It could be tight. Just looknig at the numbers:

Tories including inds who lost the whip: 310

Lab, Lib Dem, Pl Cyn, SNP, Ind Group, Green: 310

So you can work out how many tories might go against it and how many of the opposition might go for it. Thats all a bit uncertain. If you were to add the DUP to those against, it makes a deal passing all the harder. As well as that, you have 13 independents left who could go anyway. It would be close enough but i'm not at all certain he can do it without the DUP.

Can he not manoeuvre this such that is a vote between his deal and no deal? If he comes back with a deal agreed by the 19th he doesn't have to request extension. Or does the Benn Bill state it must be agreed with EU and HOC?

If it's the vote between deal and no deal he'll get the numbers.

Kermit.de.frog

Seems like it's all happening now

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184124461781540865

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1184123150394638336

54and56

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Bottom line here is, there is no real half-way house between the UK rejected proposals and the NI only backstop the EU is pushing for. There is no great fudge they can come up with that has a landing zone somewhere in the middle. Either the UK moves to the EU position or there'll be no agreement. The quicker they resolve whether that will happen, the better for everybody imo.

But ........ alternative arrangements.............technology...........trusted trader schemes........

Nigel said these all exist and the EU's own reports say they are fine and dandy.

Why is no one listening to us and more?

Mr.Nice Guy

Hurrache wrote: »

And no surprises what it has taken for the DUP to return Stormont without condition...

They've been saying that all along though. Their argument is that they've always been ready to return to Stormont but that it's Sinn Fein that is setting pre-conditions on a return (the Irish Language Act). In reality, there was a deal on the cards in 2018 to revivie Stormont which included a very basic ILA but the DUP got spooked by the negativity from their base and torpedoed it. Ever since, they've insisted they have 'no red lines' even though not having a language act is clearly one. I don't see them moving on that.

Joe_ Public

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Can he not manoeuvre this such that is a vote between his deal and no deal? If he comes back with a deal agreed by the 19th he doesn't have to request extension. Or does the Benn Bill state it must be agreed with EU and HOC?

If it's the vote between deal and no deal he'll get the numbers.

I still have trouble believing that Johnson wants to pass a deal with a NI only backstop, but let's just say we do get to position he brings such a deal back to the house, you're correct to speculate what kind of manoeuvrings might come with it. We simply dont know. The Benn bill does specify it must be passed by the house by the 19th, so how that holds up we'll have to see.

woohoo!!!

So unfortunately that they keep running into the meticulous and unflappable Barnier and co. One by one they've folded when at the negotiation table away from the comfort of shouting and roaring in the zoo that is HoC and away from the comfort of their spin artists in the red tops.

Mon Dieu.

ZeroThreat

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: No more jokes and one-liners please.

My question about there not being a kindle version of 'Burned' wasn't intended as a pun in case people though I was being flippant btw.

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It could be tight. Just looknig at the numbers:

Tories including inds who lost the whip: 310

Lab, Lib Dem, Pl Cyn, SNP, Ind Group, Green: 310

So you can work out how many tories might go against it and how many of the opposition might go for it. Thats all a bit uncertain. If you were to add the DUP to those against, it makes a deal passing all the harder. As well as that, you have 13 independents left who could go anyway. It would be close enough but i'm not at all certain he can do it without the DUP.

Edit: just to say there's no way labour can back it. There are some issues for them in opposing a deal, but thats the thin end of the wedge. Under no circumstances can they support it, for a whole host of reasons.

there is absolutely no way he can do it without the DUP and what will happen then is just like with Mays deal the ERG will know this an will vote against it as well to remain ideologically pure.
with the DUP and ergo with the ERG on board he has a slim chance. there are about half the tory rebels who will definitely come back into the fold if a deal is on the table but there are probably at least 6 who will never vote for it most of whom are not running again any way so have nothing to lose.
then there is 1 lib dem who will vote for it and about 4 labour mp's who will almost certainly vote for it.

so its then down to a handful of tory rebels and a handfull of possible wavering labour rebels.
the right wing commentators talk about 12-18 possible labour rebels but this is IMO wishful thinking, there has been no sign of them so far.
i think a lot of the tory rebels will only come back into the fold if there is a guaranteed confirmatory ref, that how i think it will end up.

ancapailldorcha

ZeroThreat wrote: »

My question about there not being a kindle version of 'Burned' wasn't intended as a pun in case people though I was being flippant btw.

Fair enough. There is just the physical copy for sale unfortunately.

gooch2k9

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fair enough. There is just the physical copy for sale unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/craicpype/status/1164196446096244738

It will be on Kindle chaps. He's replied to that tweet with a "Yes.", I just don't know how to show two tweets. Next week he said in another tweet I saw from him earlier.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

there is absolutely no way he can do it without the DUP and what will happen then is just like with Mays deal the ERG will know this an will vote against it as well to remain ideologically pure.
with the DUP and ergo with the ERG on board he has a slim chance. there are about half the tory rebels who will definitely come back into the fold if a deal is on the table but there are probably at least 6 who will never vote for it most of whom are not running again any way so have nothing to lose.
then there is 1 lib dem who will vote for it and about 4 labour mp's who will almost certainly vote for it.

so its then down to a handful of tory rebels and a handfull of possible wavering labour rebels.
the right wing commentators talk about 12-18 possible labour rebels but this is IMO wishful thinking, there has been no sign of them so far.
i think a lot of the tory rebels will only come back into the fold if there is a guaranteed confirmatory ref, that how i think it will end up.

I agree broadly with most of that, though i wouldnt approach any vote with any great deal of conviction all the same. I do think most of the tory rebels will back a deal (why wouldnt they?) but would be doubtful about the labour rebels because there will be a huge amount of pressure on them not to defy the whip. Some still might, but not sure it will be all that many. I would definitely bet against any such deal being passed and still think that is how Johnson and a fair proportion of his party want it.