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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Enzokk

I think we are going to read and here a lot about fudge again in the coming week. How the UK will fudge the WA to resell it to their voters that it is new and better, when in reality it is May's deal all over again. And then you are going to see some scenes in the HoC to try and get it through. Johnson will perform and insult and do anything he can to get MPs to vote for the "new" deal to get him out of asking for an extension on the 19th.

If he is able to get the deal passed, I don't know what happens as he will not ask for an extension and there is no time to get the deal through legislation in time before the 31st. I still think he is trying to play all sides to get no-deal, there just isn't time left to leave by the 31st without a deal so I take the path of least resistance. Johnson wants no-deal to get rid of the Brexit Party vote so he can win a General Election after the 31st. Nothing else makes much sense to me.

jimmycrackcorm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rees Mogg saying DUP and ERG will support the proposed deal Johnson is putting forward today.

Which is?

I guess the gameplan is as was all along. Try to show you made an effort but the EU wouldn't budge so on with no deal, extension and GE.

Water John

Johnson may have looked into the, black hole, that is No Deal and decided it's not a nice place to end up, even if PM of a new Govn't. I think he now wants a deal.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

Johnson may have looked into the, black hole, that is No Deal and decided it's not a nice place to end up, even if PM of a new Govn't. I think he now wants a deal.

If that's the case, the EU should string out the negotiations to ensure he has to ask for an extension. Just because.

Seth Brundle

Am I correct in thinking that based on these two tweets below, the UK aren't completely engaging in avoiding a no-deal and it looks like this will go on an on (or else a crash out)?

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184040170213068800

https://twitter.com/HMcEntee/status/1184016826746978305

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1184030547250679808

Can only be a positive sign really i'd have thought.

54and56

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Let me guess....Something dreamed up by the DUP that doesn't respect the GFA or the Nationalist community up the north

Heard JRM's Q&A on LBC earlier and interestingly when asked directly by Nick Ferrari if the deal being negotiated would have the support of the DUP he was ambiguous in his answer by saying that it would have broad unionist support and that the DUP weren't the only unionist party. He then went on to clarify that the Tory's are a unionist party.

Sounded very like he was preparing the ground for isolating the DUP as being intransigent but that BoJo's deal would have enough "unionist" support, including of course from the Conservative Party of GB & NI to justify moving forward with it. Such a move would force the DUP into making a very difficult decision. Oppose BoJo's deal and if it doesn't get through the HoC take a large portion of the blame for a no deal or climb down off their ladder and support it but risk losing the support of their more hard line voters.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1184030547250679808

Can only be a positive sign really.

Might be reading too much into it, but Ian Paisley Jun looked completely deflated after coming from the meeting and speaking to Claire Daly last night. Couldn't help giving the impression that he was climbing up on the barricades not against the EU but No. 10.

Water John

DUP hard line voters have nowhere harder to go.

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rees Mogg saying DUP and ERG will support the proposed deal Johnson is putting forward today.

Which is?

Like they supported May's deal v1.0, before remote-egging her from afar, just as her pen was poised over the dotted line in Brussels?

Rush meetings at no.10 between the PM and the DUP, co-temporously with withdrawal agreement tunnel sessions and mere days before an EU Council meeting at which the PM is due to make-or-break...I think that's precisely what they coined the "déjà vu" Frenchism for.

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Am I correct in thinking that based on these two tweets below, the UK aren't completely engaging in avoiding a no-deal and it looks like this will go on an on (or else a crash out)?

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184040170213068800

https://twitter.com/HMcEntee/status/1184016826746978305

Johnson does not want to sign that letter.

No chance his negotiators leave the field now. :pac:

[Deleted User]

Water John wrote: »

Johnson may have looked into the, black hole, that is No Deal and decided it's not a nice place to end up, even if PM of a new Govn't. I think he now wants a deal.

I don't think he has ever wanted No Deal..

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1184030547250679808

Can only be a positive sign really i'd have thought.

Unfortunately, more than any other place in these islands, it is very much a binary win or lose mentality. If 'concessions' are made to the EU then Unionists lose and Nationalists win. Ditto vice versa. This perspective is deeply entrenched in the subconscious minds of both cohorts. So, 'winning' while the other 'loses' can be more important than the local economy or even peace.

gooch2k9

Water John wrote: »

DUP hard line voters have nowhere harder to go.

Jim Allister's TUV are more uniony than the DUP I believe. He left DUP because they entered power sharing with SF.

Water John

The DUP's problem is that it misread its voters.

gooch2k9

Water John wrote: »

The DUP's problem is that it misread its voters.

In this case I think they misread the gravity of potential impact rather than their voters. Many times before they have got away with skulduggery because they could fall back on the defend the union line. This time they're visibly responsible for raising the question of the union at all. They've crossed the line for a lot of their voters this time, and hopefully push some moderates away.

An awful lot of talk that it needs to be agreed this evening for Barnier to recommend acceptance at this week's council so I can't see a deal being struck this week. Only offer a 12 month extension, but have actual hard checks on it this time so that the UK can't waste another year. Both sides of the debate in the UK need to step up to the plate and come to a decision.

Water John

Yes, build milestones into the extension.

ancapailldorcha

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Jim Allister's TUV are more uniony than the DUP I believe. He left DUP because they entered power sharing with SF.

Yep. I actually thought at one point that they were moderate because my aunt votes for them.

Enzokk

Another day and more stories of the Home Office refusing visas for spurious reasons it seems,

UK to deport academic to Democratic Republic of Congo – which she has never visited

Furaha Asani, a young academic at Leicester University, was shocked when her visa application was rejected in August. But real fear set in when she realised Britain plans to deport her in three weeks’ time to the Democratic Republic of Congo – a war-torn country she has never visited and where the Home Office agrees sexual violence is pervasive.

Dr Asani came to the UK on a full scholarship to do a PhD on infection and immunity at Sheffield University, and has since been undertaking cardiovascular research at Leicester University. Her father was from the DRC, but fled in 1968 because as a student activist, his life was at risk. Asani grew up in Nigeria. Although she has a Congolese passport, she has never been to the DRC, which has one of the worst human rights records in the world. She does not speak the main language and knows no one there.

This is not new and where it was targeted at the Windrush Generation before we can see now that the Home Office has taken a view that everyone is a target. Well done Theresa May, your vision of a hostile environment is playing out well.

This makes me wonder how the EU thinks they can trust the UK. We have seen that they are very open to using their own incompetence to bypass one of the essential pillars of the GFA when Ireland did that. Let us not forget the words of Gove who said that if MPs vote for May's deal that it could always be changed later.

briany

Water John wrote: »

Yes, build milestones into the extension.

I don't see much difference between a 12 month extension with milestones and a series of 3 month extensions. Presumably, an extension with milestones would be terminated if the UK weren't shown to be working toward a solution when review time rolled around.

Although I remember that this current extension also had a review period built in, and I don't remember the EU anything besides what it says anyway. The UK was sitting on its hands at the time as well. No penalty.

I like the suggestion that another poster made, and I think it bears repeating - an indefinite extension to be offered, with the proviso that the UK can give a 2 month notice of its termination at any time, e.g. because a deal has been reached, because the Commons voted for no-deal or because they decided to revoke the whole thing altogether. Puts the pressure squarely on the UK and means that any failure to leave the EU comes squarely down to UK politics.

gooch2k9

briany wrote: »

I don't see much difference between a 12 month extension with milestones and a series of 3 month extensions. Presumably, an extension with milestones would be terminated if the UK weren't shown to be working toward a solution when review time rolled around.

Although I remember that this current extension also had a review period built in, and I don't remember the EU anything besides what it says anyway. The UK was sitting on its hands at the time as well. No penalty.

I like the suggestion that another poster made, and I think it bears repeating - an indefinite extension to be offered, with the proviso that the UK can give a 2 month notice of its termination at any time, e.g. because a deal has been reached, because the Commons voted for no-deal or because they decided to revoke the whole thing altogether. Puts the pressure squarely on the UK and means that any failure to leave the EU comes squarely down to UK politics.

That's a good idea. The onus of any extension has to be to make the UK come to a decision. There has just been too much dithering and delay!(:pac:)

I see the EU has caved at the last minute and set BJ a midnight deadline to agree to cutoms in Irish sea. Glad to see UK have dropped Stormont lock idea. The politics of NI render that unworkable.

Guardian Link

[Deleted User]

Midnight.. Seems like it's really coming down to it now.

Kermit.de.frog

The EU have called the UK's bluff.

trellheim

The UK are continually amazed that the EU pays close attention to their reported media

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Another day and more stories of the Home Office refusing visas for spurious reasons it seems,

UK to deport academic to Democratic Republic of Congo – which she has never visited

This is not new and where it was targeted at the Windrush Generation before we can see now that the Home Office has taken a view that everyone is a target. Well done Theresa May, your vision of a hostile environment is playing out well.

This makes me wonder how the EU thinks they can trust the UK. We have seen that they are very open to using their own incompetence to bypass one of the essential pillars of the GFA when Ireland did that. Let us not forget the words of Gove who said that if MPs vote for May's deal that it could always be changed later.

I do wonder if one of the problems with Brexit and its all-consuming nature, is the utter lack of humanity of this tory government tends to get lost or forgotten in all the fog. Her Valentines Day tweet, windrush, the go home van, her reference to Grenfell in her resignation speech - what an utterly toxic, shameful legacy that May has left behind. And then, as if to underline just how much compassion they lack, they go and put an even harder case, Priti Patel, in the office. With their actions on foreign nationals over the last couple of years, or lack of as the case may be, they have actually ended up using their own EU-based citizens as pawns and bargaining chips, or they are at least getting caught up in the crossfire. The sheer incompetence is staggering.

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

Midnight.. Seems like it's really coming down to it now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1184043538297905152

How does this relate to that?

[Deleted User]

briany wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1184043538297905152

How does this relate to that?

Possible they'll continue into next week if Johnson gets that over to Barnier tonight?

trellheim

the mood music is NOT good at the moment ( although this is classic car sales walk-away time , darkest before the light etc etc etc )

gooch2k9

briany wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1184043538297905152

How does this relate to that?

The midnight deadline is for him to recommend acceptance at the council this week. Otherwise, he would recommend further talks I suppose.

briany

trellheim wrote: »

the mood music is NOT good at the moment ( although this is classic car sales walk-away time , darkest before the light etc etc etc )

The nature of these last minute negotiations reminds me strongly of the TruCoat scene from Fargo.

We had a deal, here, for 19,5!