ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.
Jim2007 wrote: » And what do yo actually do the day after No Deal? How are you going to deal with the fact that you have lost trade agreements covering 92% of your exports, preferential access to a wealthy market covering 48% of your exports, loss of passporting of financial services, a failure to get trade schedules agreed at the WTO, No US trade deal, no EU trade deal, no deals with Canada and Japan, no tariffs on imports thus exposing you economy to unrestricted imports from low cost countries such as China etc??? How much pain are you willing to take - tax increases, job losses etc... and more importantly how much do you think the great British public will accept?
Imreoir2 wrote: » The UK is not so important to Ireland anymore. It is only a handful of sectors that have any significant exposure to the British market. A no-deal Brexit would be bad for Ireland, but we do have another 26 nations in our single market and trade deals with half the world to fall back on, the UK will have nothing.
Varta wrote: » Are you sure you aren't living in Westminster and being paid by Cummings?
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » I can sense anger on this thread, but making sh*t up like No Deal is your bargaining chip just doesn't wash. Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Our Central Bank would appear to disagree. And in these matters I will take on board their views even if I am in the minority about that. I will always listen to the experts.
trellheim wrote: » Calm down folks FGS. Ireland will have serious problems in a No Deal scenario. But as I think someone said earlier the alternative is worse if it means we fall even farther back in NI so hung for a sheep etc . To answer a recent point : with TM's deal, if it hadnt been the backstop the ERG didn't like, it would have been something else , level playing field and what not would have been the rock on which it foundered. Also : never seen such quiet out of Brussels - must be something going on.
VinLieger wrote: » Yes the central banks predictions arent great but they aren't ad bad as they would have been say 10 years ago due to our reducing reliance on the UK and with the EU behind us it is absolutely recoverable from whereas the UK will have nobody to lean on.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Nope. And for that lie, you've earned yourself ignore.
Imreoir2 wrote: » Perhaps I am wrong, but the central bank are suggesting that the impact of Brexit on the Irish economey would be to reduce our growth rate to being in line with the EU average, with the posibility that we might enter a slight recession in a worst case scenario? It's not great, but its not the negative 12-16% devestation that some parts of the UK, including NI are projected to suffer.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Our growth is 4.5% this year. A 6% decline would push us into recession. That means cutbacks. Yes agreed, the UK may have it worse. But it will also have a serious impact here.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Wow, you finally concede I was right. Took you long enough and only after you threw plenty of insults out. There will be a serious short and medium term impact to Ireland.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » I'm not interested in the impact on continental Europe. I am interested on the impact on Ireland. But at the same time, Ireland is part of Europe. So to say as Vinlieger said, No Deal will have no impact on Europe simply isn't true. And he knows it. It will have a serious impact on Ireland. The No Deal threat used by Johnson could have a serious impact on Ireland. We all know that. Of course he shouldn't use it and I despise the ERG and Johnson as much as the next person. But they have cited it as their main weapon for weeks now. It is why Johnson hate the Benn Act.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » You know well that No Deal will do as much damage to Ireland as anywhere. Tell us what other bargaining chip they had to try to get a deal which can get past the HoC? We've seen a permanent backstop won't get far.
jimmycrackcorm wrote: » No deal isn't a bargaining chip as the EU knows parliment stint allow that. They've been very consistent in saying that they are open to discussions that are in line with the WA which is exactly what is happening. As for Ireland, we'll recover quicker from no deal than we will if we're go back to opening up the troubles via imposition of a border.
jimmycrackcorm wrote: » As for Ireland, we'll recover quicker from no deal than we will if we're go back to opening up the troubles via imposition of a border.
Varta wrote: » But it is only a weapon in their heads. It doesn't actually exist because, as has been said many times, if they crash out they will be back pronto looking for a deal. The EU knows this and therefore is not bothered by Johnson's threats of 'No Deal'. At this point I would like the UK to just saddle up their fastest unicorn and ride into the sunlit uplands. They do not belong in the EU. In fact, they do not even belong in Europe. It's a pity Mother Earth wouldn't just squeeze Britain and eject it like a blackhead and thus move us closer to the mainland. And I don't want to hear from remainers either, because most remainers I know talk about staying in the EU but making radical changes! The UK just doesn't belong in the EU and never did.
Muahahaha wrote: » Was listening to Drivetime and they were discussing the threat of loyalists over the weekend when one of them said "we'll see how hard the border is when bombs go off in Limerick". Some unionist was on basically saying that if Boris shafts them then loyalists are going to hit the streets and it would put the flegs protests in the ha'penny place. He seemed to be insinuating that if they dont get what they want then loyalists are going back to terrorism and that it would be our fault. Its not up on Drivetime yet but worth a listen back when it is, I couldnt believe my ears. Also got me thinking they could follow though on the threat and bomb an Irish city within the first few weeks of a deal.
20silkcut wrote: » The further this goes on the more I think Fintan o toole is right. The fact they were never invaded in any kind of recent history had led to this unbelievable unwarranted hubris. Every other European country has been humiliated and subjugated at some point in their recent history. Which surely has contributed to the spirit of Co-operation upon which the European Union was founded. Every other European country has a sense of pragmatism and vulnerability that encourages the spirit of better together. It’s completely absent in the UK. Even as you highlighted , amongst a lot of remainers. There is this stupefying concept of if it’s not British it’s not right.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Jesus, can't believe I have to explain this to you. Let me use a simple analogy.Hitler made a threat to invade the UK in 1940. Well known fact. Now if I point that out, does that mean I made a threat to invade the UK? That's literally what you are saying. I can sense anger on this thread, but making sh*t up like No Deal is your bargaining chip just doesn't wash. Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.
20silkcut wrote: » The further this goes on the more I think Fintan o toole is right. The fact they were never invaded in any kind of recent history had led to this unbelievable unwarranted hubris.Every other European country has been humiliated and subjugated at some point in their recent history. Which surely has contributed to the spirit of Co-operation upon which the European Union was founded. Every other European country has a sense of pragmatism and vulnerability that encourages the spirit of better together. It’s completely absent in the UK. Even as you highlighted , amongst a lot of remainers. There is this stupefying concept of if it’s not British it’s not right.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » Look at the disrespect here:https://twitter.com/HMRadioUK/status/1183764320955654144 Really highlights how divided Westminster is, and how England and Scotland are literally heading in different directions.
