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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Oh I see. So the No Deal "bargaining chip" is actually a threat to damage Ireland's economy if they don't get their own way in talks. Nice.

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm living in the reality as pointed out by our Irish Central Bank. Down 6% growth, recession, 110,000 less jobs - that's reality. You probably don't even listen to the Irish Central Bank FFS.

So yeh cut out the lies about getting this from the telegraph or you're heading for ignore. No-one likes a liar.

LOL calm down, yes i read the news and im well aware of the projections so maybe hop down off your ever so "informed" high horse?

How is the current situation any different to the previous 2 "deadlines" where no deal was a very real possibility? Answer: its not and no deal is still just as much of a threat as it was then, in that it isn't one at all.

The reality is the EU stance hasn't changed, Johnson has changed something in the last week, what it is we aren't exactly sure of but its lead to negotiations being possible and a deal once again on the table. You are the one denying reality to suit your own stance. Ignore me if you want but your quite obviously living in your own echo chamber as it is already.

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

So i guess we'll be back to the likes of Priti Patel threatening food shortages? One thing we have, at least, is the support and friendship of 26 other countries, not to mention the good will of the US, or the democrat side of it at a minimum. If the worst comes to the worst, i do believe we'd be able to ride the storm until some form of normality is restored.

ToBeFrank123

prawnsambo wrote: »

You're forgetting that May's deal would have had much the same effect, except with a two year stay of execution. So the losses would be spread out over a longer period of time, but would still impact us.

Sorry you are wrong. We are only in the WA phase now. A trade deal has to come after.

Without a proper WA, we revert to WTA rules. That's tariffs on our products going into the UK, one of our biggest markets. Its also tarrifs coming the other way, that means an increase in the prices of goods that come from the UK.

We need the WA to get us to the trade deal, otherwise its WTA tarrifs.

I can't believe there are some people such as Vinlieger who think Ireland wont be badly affected by No Deal.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

Why do you think the EU have to play nice?

Also what do the HOC votes have to do with the negotiations the EU is in, they are negotiating with the Government and its their job to get a deal through the HOC not the EU's.

You really dont seem to understand how this all works, which is surprising since its 3+ years on and kinda well documented.

Professor Moriarty

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

Why should Ireland or the EU pay any attention to HoC votes? Should British people scrutinise Dáil votes? British exceptionalism at its finest.

Okay, so you agree that your "bargaining chip" No Deal is actually a threat to damage Ireland. Grand, so you'll understand when Ireland stabs Britain in the back as many times as it can.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes.

Seriously ...

The British have to follow the EU's rules if they want to play with the EU. Simple as that. They can do what they like in the HoC (and have done so for three years, for all the good it's done them), but they are a smallish island state off the coast of north-western Europe that has decided to revert to form of 17th century sovereign isolationism. They'll find it very difficult to play with anyone until they give up their little cos-play adventure and re-join the modern world.

ToBeFrank123

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL calm down, yes i read the news and im well aware of the projections so maybe hop down off your ever so "informed" high horse?

How is the current situation any different to the previous 2 "deadlines" where no deal was a very real possibility? Answer: its not and no deal is still just as much of a threat as it was then, in that it isn't one at all.

The reality is the EU stance hasn't changed, Johnson has changed something in the last week, what it is we aren't exactly sure of but its lead to negotiations being possible and a deal once again on the table. You are the one denying reality to suit your own stance. Ignore me if you want but your quite obviously living in your own echo chamber as it is already.

Now you are rowing back. A minute ago you were saying I was talking garbage to say Europe or Ireland wouldn't be affected by no deal.

Which is it? Is there an impact from No Deal or not?

No-one wants No Deal and most if not all want this overall issue resolved soon. You can't kick the can down the road forever, although I suspect some people would.

Seth Brundle

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You know well that No Deal will do as much damage to Ireland as anywhere.

Tell us what other bargaining chip they had to try to get a deal which can get past the HoC? We've seen a permanent backstop won't get far.

It will not do "as much damage" to the RoI as it will to the UK.
The RoI will be affected but nowhere near what the UK would face.
However, as ever, I'm open to correction so if you have actual evidence or research to show that Ireland will face as much damage as the UK will then I'd love to see it!

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Up until about the 1st October, the EU, Ireland and UK repeatedly said there was little prospect of a deal.

When the possibility of No Deal came into view, all sides got focussed.

They've all said in the last week, that a deal is now possible, pathway to a deal, etc. Funny how that happened when the threat of No Deal was on the table.

I don't agree with No Deal, in fact its the very worst case scenario. But it has focused minds.

The EU have concluded negotiations and it's packaged up in the WA. They will not deviate from this. It is the UK red lines that will change.
The EU did not need to re-focus. They were always focused at the UK and how the UK was not taking talks, etc seriously.
This has not stopped the EU from preparing for the worst case scenario and in fact meant that the EU was (as they said themselves) fully prepared for a UK crash out whilst the UK, well the UK have done little to prepare for a crash out.
If you think that the EU took their eye off the ball and had to re-focus once Oct came then you are seriously mistaken.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Without a proper WA, we revert to WTA rules. That's tariffs on our products going into the UK, one of our biggest markets.

For someone who claims to be informed, you seem to have missed the publication of the UK's position on import tariffs. We'll be grand - most of our exports will enter the UK market tariff-free.

ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why should Ireland or the EU pay any attention to HoC votes? Should British people scrutinise Dáil votes? British exceptionalism at its finest.

Okay, so you agree that your "bargaining chip" No Deal is actually a threat to damage Ireland. Grand, so you'll understand when Ireland stabs Britain in the back as many times as it can.

You know very well a deal agreed by EU and UK is as worthless as the paper its printed on if it doesn't pass the HoC. Completely worthless.

Did I say No Deal was my bargaining chip?

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Now you are rowing back. A minute ago you were saying I was talking garbage to say Europe or Ireland wouldn't be affected by no deal.
Which is it? Is there an impact from No Deal or not?

Now who's the liar ehh? Quote the post where i said exactly "Europe or Ireland wouldn't be affected by no deal." as you claim or admit your talking out of your arse.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No-one wants No Deal and most if not all want this overall issue resolved soon. You can't kick the can down the road forever, although I suspect some people would.

Well we know that's not true, Farage, Cummings, Mogg and the ERG and many other hardcore brexity types 100% are calling for no deal for quite a while.

The only people who've been kicking the can down the road are the conservative party ever since Cameron announced he would be holding a referendum if he got an overall majority.

ToBeFrank123

You all know Johnson has cited numerous times that No Deal is his bargaining chip.

Do ye even follow UK news at this stage?

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You all know Johnson has cited numerous times that No Deal is his bargaining chip.

Do ye even follow UK news at this stage?

And why do you think that matters to the EU again when the UK will have to come straight back asking for a trade agreement?

ToBeFrank123

VinLieger wrote: »

Now who's the liar ehh? Quote the post where i said exactly "Europe or Ireland wouldn't be affected by no deal." as you claim or admit your talking out of your arse.

Sure. Its here in black and white.

VinLieger wrote: »

How are you still regurgitating this garbage? There is no real threat to Europe in no deal as the UK will always still have to come back looking for some form of trade agreement and they will have them over a barrel on that.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

sure. Its here in black and white.

Yup that full quote implies nothing like what you are inferring, your selective reading skills are spectacular.

I said its not a threat, not that it wouldn't have an affect, you understand there's a large difference between the two yeah?

Professor Moriarty

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You know very well a deal agreed by EU and UK is as worthless as the paper its printed on if it doesn't pass the HoC. Completely worthless.

Did I say No Deal was my bargaining chip?

It's how you described it:

Without the threat of No Deal, there was nothing to bring the EU to the table. We've seen that in recent weeks. When the EU thought Boris was serious about No Deal, they also got serious about negotiations. Its about the only bargaining chip the UK has.

Therefore it is your description.

The EU must deal with the British government, not the HoC. The fact that British democracy has been shown to be a shambles has nothing to do with the EU in negotiations. They must negotiate with the government's representatives.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous Britain looks today? Any idea how much credibility and goodwill they've squandered?

ToBeFrank123

VinLieger wrote: »

Yup that full quote implies nothing like what you are inferring, your selective reading skills are spectacular.

I said its not a threat, not that it wouldn't have an affect, you understand there's a large difference between the two yeah?

Wow, another personal insult. Keep it up. Impressing no-one.

What exactly are you trying to say? You are all over the place!

You said No Deal would not have an impact on Europe.

For the last time, will No Deal have an economic impact on Europe or not?

All I'm seeing is you changing the goalposts every time you are caught out.

Varta

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

Of course people ignore the HoC votes. The HoC is the UK parliament. They can vote as they like, all day long if they like. It has nothing do do with us.

Leroy42

No Deal will of course have a major impact on RoI, not just economically but politically aswell.

But in overall terms it won't have that big effect for the EU. It is like the 39bn. UK seem to think that isca bargaining chip that can be held over the EUs head, but in terms of EU budget it is relatively small. And the price they wanted for it was far too high.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Without the threat of No Deal, there was nothing to bring the EU to the table. We've seen that in recent weeks. When the EU thought Boris was serious about No Deal, they also got serious about negotiations. Its about the only bargaining chip the UK has.

(Not that I agree with it, but if they didn't have it, the withdrawal process would drag on with neither side willing to compromise).

This is nonsence. The EU was available to negotiate from the triggering of A50. They agreed their guidelines well in advance, set up a taskforce and gave them a mandate to negiotiate on behalf of the EU. Then we had to wait for the UK to go off on a tangent by needlessly calling an election, followed by UK megaphone diplomacy where their PM made several speaches before any proposals were brought forward. Indeed the whole process has been charachterised by the wait for the UK to figure out what it wants and to bring forward proposals. Then we have had the constant dragging of feet from the UK which has only been broken by looming deadlines. Starting with making sufficient progress before finaly agreeing to the joint declaration back in late 2017. There followed more months of feet dragging as the EU waited and waited for the UK to put forward detailed proposals. Once the UK did so, the EU got down to intence negiotiations with the UK which resulted in the fully legally operable Withdrawl Agreement. The EU sailed through its own ratification process, while the UK got itself bogged down in the morass of its own domestic politics. The EU agreed and provided several clarfications to the WA as the UK sunk deeper and deeper into the bog of its badly devided and hamstrung parliamentry process.

Then the UK asked for an extension, which the EU quickly granted. The UK then almost reset the clock by going off on another tangent with thier leadership election, the new PM essentially repudiating the Joint Decleration and wasting months dragging their feet and going back over old ground. Indeed it is only another looming deadline that has forced the UK to finally come forward with some proposals. The EU as ever was ready and waiting when the UK got its act together and was able to sit down with the UK again to see if a deal can be found.

At no point in the process has the EU needlessly dragged out the process, found itself unable to move in the direction it wanted or failed to abide by commitments it had made. At no point has the EU needed an extension to get its house in order. The UK on the other hand has needed two so far and will be aslking for a third in just a few days time. It has consistantly been the UK that has gone off on tangents, dragged its feet, gotten locked into negiotiating with itself and not the other side, and gotten bogged down in its own proceadures. Indeed the charge you made against the EU, that the prospect of No Deal is the only thing that has focused minds, is far more applicable to the UK and really has no resemblance to how the EU has acted.

There is no onus on the EU to compromise for the sake of giving the UK half a unicorn. The UK can compromise and accept a workable deal as defined by the EU, or they can leave with no deal, or they can cancle Brexit. That is ultimatly the extent of the choices available. The EUs actions have made this reality clear and the threat of No-Deal does not alter this.

Varta

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm living in the reality as pointed out by our Irish Central Bank. Down 6% growth, recession, 110,000 less jobs - that's reality. You probably don't even listen to the Irish Central Bank FFS.

So yeh cut out the lies about getting this from the telegraph or you're heading for ignore. No-one likes a liar.

Are you sure you aren't living in Westminster and being paid by Cummings?

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Wow, another personal insult. Keep it up. Impressing no-one.

What exactly are you trying to say? You are all over the place!

You said No Deal would not have an impact on Europe.

For the last time, will No Deal have an economic impact on Europe or not?

All I'm seeing is you changing the goalposts every time you are caught out.

I never said it wont have an effect/impact or whatever other word your going to substitute for next, I said it wasn't a threat.

Its very funny to accuse me of moving the goalposts when you can't even admit you were wrong that you misunderstood what I posted and still continue to double down on it.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No-one wants No Deal and most if not all want this overall issue resolved soon.

I want no deal if the alternative is a bad deal - and what I'm seeing right now is lots of bad deal. So that means no deal.

Jim2007

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Without a proper WA, we revert to WTA rules. That's tariffs on our products going into the UK, one of our biggest markets. Its also tarrifs coming the other way, that means an increase in the prices of goods that come from the UK.

First of all it is WTO and second of all there will be no tariffs on most goods being exported to the UK for at least a year and more likely for several years. You would know this if you paid attention to the great BREXIT plan. That means about 90% of goods entering the UK will be tariff free, while their exports will be subject to tariffs. Which means there will not be much motivation for anyone to rush for a deal with the UK.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You are I'm afraid incredibly naïve. In fact most of you are naïve if you think the British have to play nice. They don't.

Again, most of you just ignore the HoC votes. This just goes round and round.

The UK cannot inflict anywhere near as much damage on the EU as the atempt would inflict upon themselves. No-deal is a hollow threat as in reality it would only weaken the UK position and make them even more desperate for a deal. The balence of power is already heavily on the EU side and no-deal would only make this worse for the UK.

The Brexit negiotiations are not being carried out between two equal powers. Britain is by far the weaker party and any British threat to "not play nice" will only backfire on them as they have far more to lose than the EU does.

ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's how you described it:

Without the threat of No Deal, there was nothing to bring the EU to the table. We've seen that in recent weeks. When the EU thought Boris was serious about No Deal, they also got serious about negotiations. Its about the only bargaining chip the UK has.

Therefore it is your description.

The EU must deal with the British government, not the HoC. The fact that British democracy has been shown to be a shambles has nothing to do with the EU in negotiations. They must negotiate with the government's representatives.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous Britain looks today? Any idea how much credibility and goodwill they've squandered?

Jesus, can't believe I have to explain this to you.

Let me use a simple analogy.

Hitler made a threat to invade the UK in 1940. Well known fact. Now if I point that out, does that mean I made a threat to invade the UK?

That's literally what you are saying.

I can sense anger on this thread, but making sh*t up like No Deal is your bargaining chip just doesn't wash. Johnson and the ERG have repeatedly said its their bargaining chip. You know this.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Without a proper WA, we revert to WTA rules. That's tariffs on our products going into the UK, one of our biggest markets. Its also tarrifs coming the other way, that means an increase in the prices of goods that come from the UK.

The UK is not so important to Ireland anymore. It is only a handful of sectors that have any significant exposure to the British market. A no-deal Brexit would be bad for Ireland, but we do have another 26 nations in our single market and trade deals with half the world to fall back on, the UK will have nothing.

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

No Deal will of course have a major impact on RoI, not just economically but politically aswell.

But in overall terms it won't have that big effect for the EU. It is like the 39bn. UK seem to think that isca bargaining chip that can be held over the EUs head, but in terms of EU budget it is relatively small. And the price they wanted for it was far too high.

I'm not interested in the impact on continental Europe. I am interested on the impact on Ireland. But at the same time, Ireland is part of Europe.

So to say as Vinlieger said, No Deal will have no impact on Europe simply isn't true. And he knows it. It will have a serious impact on Ireland.

The No Deal threat used by Johnson could have a serious impact on Ireland. We all know that.

Of course he shouldn't use it and I despise the ERG and Johnson as much as the next person. But they have cited it as their main weapon for weeks now. It is why Johnson hate the Benn Act.

Jim2007

fash wrote: »

I want no deal if the alternative is a bad deal - and what I'm seeing right now is lots of bad deal. So that means no deal.

And what do yo actually do the day after No Deal? How are you going to deal with the fact that you have lost trade agreements covering 92% of your exports, preferential access to a wealthy market covering 48% of your exports, loss of passporting of financial services, a failure to get trade schedules agreed at the WTO, No US trade deal, no EU trade deal, no deals with Canada and Japan, no tariffs on imports thus exposing you economy to unrestricted imports from low cost countries such as China etc???

How much pain are you willing to take - tax increases, job losses etc... and more importantly how much do you think the great British public will accept?