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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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trellheim

I mean the queen reads the speech prepared by her government but how likely is that any of what's in the speech has any chance of getting done ?

Most of the debate centred on the Queen's EU hat if I recall for the last one. Which was prophetic as the UK comprehensively wasted the last two years fighting itself in a phonebox

FrancieBrady

BarryD2 wrote: »

It's not how the Brexiteers may see it, it's how the voting public see it when Boris and Tories will run their election campaign. The story they can spin.

There is nothing the EU or Leo can do about that.

Boris's goal is to get elected, he is going to spin whatever happens.

Zubeneschamali

BarryD2 wrote: »

It's not how the Brexiteers may see it, it's how the voting public see it when Boris and Tories will run their election campaign. The story they can spin.

It is absolutely not the job of Varadkar or the EU to try and help the UK opposition to beat the Government parties in an election.

Seth Brundle

I'm reading from a few sources on Twitter that the Eu have agreed internally to offer an extension, e.g. below
Anyone able to verify?

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1183651234332528641

Shelga

Even if Johnson and the EU agree an NI-only backstop, a deal that takes the UK out of the single market and customs union will never be approved by any of the opposition parties, will it?

What’s the point at this stage, without it being a BRINO-type deal? And then of course it becomes, what’s the point of leaving at all?

lawred2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm reading from a few sources on Twitter that the Eu have agreed internally to offer an extension, e.g. below
Anyone able to verify?

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1183651234332528641

Does it not have to be requested?

[Deleted User]

9 - 12 more months?

Please god no.

Harry Palmr

Genuinely strange business announcing a policy programme which will not be passed and yet not trigger an election (we presume!). I bet Her Madge is thrilled to be dragged out of Buck House for such an unimportant matter

Seth Brundle

lawred2 wrote: »

Does it not have to be requested?

The UK have to write in for an extension but nothing stopping the EU offering one first.
Still can't find anything conclusive that they're offering one apart from the likes of this suggestion...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/13/eu-ready-to-grant-brexit-extension-as-johnson-prepares-for-key-summit

jem

Out last night having a quite pint with a few friends met a husband and wife. Both highly intelligent both quite elderly. She holding a phd in maths and he a former very highly ranked civil servant in London She originally from Ireland . they having lived in london for many many years.
Conversation turned to brexit and the wheels came off.
they both voted for brexit, could not accept in any way that they were cutting off their noes to spite their face. got the 17.4 million line , got brexit means brexit etc etc . To be honest I was stunned.
i brought up about a second vote , that they know more now than they did when the voted- they found this very insulting and said so.
I brought up about the many forms of brexit and at the time of the vote the leave campaign said about the easiest deal ever, done over a cup of tea in an afternoon. That the GFA wasn't even thought of etc no avail
only movement was if there is a second vote it should only be held after they leave- I did say that this made no sense and reminded them about the fact that the referendum was only advisory- they would not accept this at all- back to the 17.4 million line.
They had never heard of the read deadline for the money men behind brexit of Jan 1 with the new EU law on offshore assets.
One of the things they said was that they had been in eastern europe in 1980's/90's and the locals had no money and everything was cheap but now if they go back the locals have far more money and stuff is dearer to buy and it was the UK money that did this- my response was surly this is good- if they have more money they can buy more goods including British goods- no avail.
Even got the clearing of the swamp with regard to the politicians and judiciary.

To be honest I now see what barnier etc is up against- there is no logic it is a idea that has gotten inside their head and there is no shifting. Logic has gone out the window. There is no realisation that the real negotiations only start after they leave.
Still in a state of shock- There is a huge difference in watching on TV and having a actual face to face discussion.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

Even if Johnson and the EU agree an NI-only backstop, a deal that takes the UK out of the single market and customs union will never be approved by any of the opposition parties, will it?

Correct, but soon enough there will have to be a General Election, and Johnson clearly plans to run it as a sort of even-worse referendum on Brexit, with him as the champion of Leave at al costs. Give me a majority and I will Get Brexit Done!

He could get an overall majority with just 35% of the vote, and then his deal would pass. Even the ERG types would hesitate to block it if it gets a mandate as part of an election manifesto.

Of course, the election could be indecisive, or could give an edge to an alternative Labour/LibDem/SNP Government, which would either hold a referendum on that deal vs. Remain, or spend 6 months negotiating a Lexit deal and then hold a Lexit/Remain referendum.

As long as the Johnson deal is OK with the EU (and if it isn't, it isn't any sort of deal, just empty words), any of these outcomes is OKish, although Remain > Lexit > Johnson's Deal. As long as we avoid No Deal, we are not too badly off.

For the UK, of course, the same is true only more so. Remain > Lexit > May's Deal > Johnson's Deal > ... > No Deal, but that is not our main concern.

AlmightyCushion

Batrachotox wrote: »

9 - 12 more months?

Please god no.

A crash out Brexit will be bad for us but I'm just so sick of it and them at this stage. The pragmatic, sensible part of me is saying that the longer this goes on the more time we have to reduce the impact of a no deal Brexit. The other part of me is saying 'Fúck it, just piss off and leave already, no extension'. That second voice has gotten a lot louder over the past few months.

Joe_ Public

Wouldn't it be utterly baffling to the EU (ok, maybe nothing could be that utterly baffling, but anyway...) if they'd agreed a deal, it had passed the Commons and then only to see it fail because they ran out of time? So I imagine it would be well within their moral right to offer an extension at that point, just enough to get the legislation done. Of course, those elements within the UK would start banging on about interference and bullying again, but that needs to be just ignored for the nonsense it is.

davedanon

I imagine it's like meeting a die-hard Trump supporter, the real 'own the libtards/lock her up' types. The same complete inversion of objective reality.

trellheim

Relevant paragraph

Article 50 TEU

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012M050&from=EN

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Zubeneschamali

Batrachotox wrote: »

9 - 12 more months?

Please god no.

That'll only be the start. 10 years of trade negotiations coming after that, and an immediate beginning of the rejoin the EU campaign.

The only thing that'll make it go back to normal is revoking A50 - even Farage and the ERG will go back to normal, complaining from the backbenches of Westminster and the Euro parliament.

I told ya

Does not surprise me. I've felt over the last 12 months or so that it's gone beyond the economic argument. It's like they've been radicalised. You hear people saying they don't care about jobs losses, even their own, the war, blitz spirit, etc. My sister lives in the UK, says it's very polarised, in her circles people don't speak about anymore, too divisive.

briany

Batrachotox wrote: »

9 - 12 more months?

Please god no.

Oh, yes.

Offering a longer extension is the best thing the EU can do. It can break down like this,

- The prospect of a longer extension is the jeopardy for UK parties to try and really get something done.

- If the Commons votes against such an extension, then it is do or die on the deal. I would expect Labour to be whipped to vote in favour of even a long extension, but some could break ranks.

- If the UK and EU come to an agreement, this will be put before the HoC. If it passes, the extension will be, in effect, much shorter, and only last as long as it takes to put the supporting legislation in place.

Seth Brundle

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That'll only be the start. 10 years of trade negotiations coming after that, and an immediate beginning of the rejoin the EU campaign.

The only thing that'll make it go back to normal is revoking A50 - even Farage and the ERG will go back to normal, complaining from the backbenches of Westminster and the Euro parliament.

I'd disagree. Any trade negotiations will be left to the experts and not carry much weight in the media.
If they were to revoke, then the Brexiteers would be up in arms and you'd see the anti-Eu nonsense step up a gear. Then the whole farce would repeat itself over the next 10, 20 or 30 years

[Deleted User]

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That'll only be the start. 10 years of trade negotiations coming after that, and an immediate beginning of the rejoin the EU campaign.

The only thing that'll make it go back to normal is revoking A50 - even Farage and the ERG will go back to normal, complaining from the backbenches of Westminster and the Euro parliament.

Apart from the riots, and the UK separatist terrorist actions.

This genie is not going back into the bottle.

Joe_ Public

I told ya wrote: »

Does not surprise me. I've felt over the last 12 months or so that it's gone beyond the economic argument. It's like they've been radicalised. You hear people saying they don't care about jobs losses, even their own, the war, blitz spirit, etc. My sister lives in the UK, says it's very polarised, in her circles people don't speak about anymore, too decisive.

I'd say if it was every truly about the economic arguments, we'd never have got to this point in the first place. All those leave voters in the midlands and further north who took the Farage bait and opted to sock one to the establishment surely know deep down that following these bluffers will in no way address the dire economic plight they face in any meaningful way. Yet many of them stubbornly stand by their vote and say they'll do it again given the chance. I can understand the labour position of trying to win those traditional left voters back, but it may just be that they are fighting a losing cause.

Joe_ Public

This is all vaguely hilarious, isn't it? Just heard a former "black rod" (still no idea what that is) on sky news complaining about the fact that Dennis Skinner used to take the p""" out of them. And the Lords looks more like a santa claus convention today than a house of legislature.

And Skinner just gets a burst of laughter in the Commons for some class of snarky comment. Really is all a funny business, isn't it?

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'd disagree. Any trade negotiations will be left to the experts and not carry much weight in the media.
If they were to revoke, then the Brexiteers would be up in arms and you'd see the anti-Eu nonsense step up a gear. Then the whole farce would repeat itself over the next 10, 20 or 30 years

It's a bit like Coronation Street. You can tune in every day to watch the drama and plot twists. I think Brexit will be longer running though.

gooch2k9

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This is all vaguely hilarious, isn't it? Just heard a former "black rod" (still no idea what that is) on sky news complaining about the fact that Dennis Skinner used to take the p""" out of them. And the Lords looks more like a santa claus convention today than a house of legislature.

And Skinner just gets a burst of laughter in the Commons for some class of snarky comment. Really is all a funny business, isn't it?

At the end of the day it's all just a bit of diversion for a lot of these MPs. Most don't need money so it's just something to do.

J Mysterio

Queen is speaking now. It's so odd. https://www.parliamentlive.tv/
I feel bad for her for some reason.

Joe_ Public

gooch2k9 wrote: »

At the end of the day it's all just a bit of diversion for a lot of these MPs. Most don't need money so it's just something to do.

Seem like harmless old conventions to me, though you'd wonder what kind of role these sort of ceremonies should command in a supposedly modernising society. But it's not my country, so thats just a pure observation. I did notice that some MPs didnt actually go into the lords chamber to hear the speech, "refuseniks" they were reffered to on Sky. Not sure how many there were, though.

LuckyLloyd

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, there is a genuine desire on the part of Ireland and the EU to avoid a No Deal Brexit, because it will cost us a shedload of money and destabilise the North.

This last-ditch effort probably won't work, and Varadkar knew that going in, and both he and Coveney have been saying cautious things ever since, but if you don't try, you'll never know for sure.

And what does it cost us? A few more days talk.

Nice way to summarise ðŸ‘

Just shows you’re kinda damned either way: if Ireland had made no effort to meet in the middle we would also have been slammed. The EU were absolutely right to try and tease out high level concepts into a deal, no matter how unlikely.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Apart from the riots, and the UK separatist terrorist actions.

What, a bunch of pensioners poking people with their walking sticks?

I'll allow that the tattoos-and-George's-cross hooligans will come out and get beaten by the police, but there aren't enough of them for real riots.

NotToScale

J Mysterio wrote: »

Queen is speaking now. It's so odd. https://www.parliamentlive.tv/
I feel bad for her for some reason.

It could be to do with her being a 93 year old woman who is supposed to remain utterly apolitical and has been dragged into this thing several times at this stage.

Personally I don’t agree with the whole concept of monarchy but she’s a hell of a lot of patience given the utter farce she’s being expected to play a ceremonial part in.

SeaBreezes

jem wrote: »

Out last night having a quite pint with a few friends met a husband and wife. Both highly intelligent both quite elderly. She holding a phd in maths and he a former very highly ranked civil servant in London She originally from Ireland . they having lived in london for many many years.
Conversation turned to brexit and the wheels came off.
they both voted for brexit, could not accept in any way that they were cutting off their noes to spite their face. got the 17.4 million line , got brexit means brexit etc etc . To be honest I was stunned.
i brought up about a second vote , that they know more now than they did when the voted- they found this very insulting and said so.
I brought up about the many forms of brexit and at the time of the vote the leave campaign said about the easiest deal ever, done over a cup of tea in an afternoon. That the GFA wasn't even thought of etc no avail
only movement was if there is a second vote it should only be held after they leave- I did say that this made no sense and reminded them about the fact that the referendum was only advisory- they would not accept this at all- back to the 17.4 million line.
They had never heard of the read deadline for the money men behind brexit of Jan 1 with the new EU law on offshore assets.
One of the things they said was that they had been in eastern europe in 1980's/90's and the locals had no money and everything was cheap but now if they go back the locals have far more money and stuff is dearer to buy and it was the UK money that did this- my response was surly this is good- if they have more money they can buy more goods including British goods- no avail.
Even got the clearing of the swamp with regard to the politicians and judiciary.

To be honest I now see what barnier etc is up against- there is no logic it is a idea that has gotten inside their head and there is no shifting. Logic has gone out the window. There is no realisation that the real negotiations only start after they leave.
Still in a state of shock- There is a huge difference in watching on TV and having a actual face to face discussion.

Had the same thing chatting to man from uk with houses in Ireland and uk.
Obviously pro Brexit, looking forward to making trade deals independently.
For example oz. I mentioned Julia gillard at Tory party interview where she places uk way down list of importance with aus trade deals. Well, we get millions back per week. Mentioned it cost 8billion to stay and 15 billion pa to leave. Independence came back. Theres no reasoning!