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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Sierra Oscar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bullish on what?

The Cove didn't seem so bullish earlier this morning.

The optimism is being replaced with cynicism it seems.

I think the EU negotiation team are rightly fearful that the UK Government is making concessions just to advance the Brexit talks to the next stage without any real plan as to how they can deliver on those concessions.

All the talk this morning has been about how the UK Government has been unable to set out the technical details as to how they will implement their proposed customs and tariffs arrangements. Concessions are useless if they are not deliverable.

It seems to me the EU is gearing up for an extension - no agreement until the technical details have been nailed down.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bullish on what?

The Cove didn't seem so bullish earlier this morning.

Particularly bullish on accepting any veto for Unionists on the island of Ireland.
Nothing particularly new in what she said tbh.

Kermit.de.frog

Bullish on what?

The Cove didn't seem so bullish earlier this morning.

Beechwoodspark

Mary Lou McD quite bullish on RTÉ morning Ireland at the moment.

Tell me how

Some in England finally catching on.

https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1183402794704949248

Kudo's Mr Connelly and Fintan O'Toole, amongst many more.
I hope younger journalists, politicians, diplomats and diplomatic corps are learning from the exemplary work that has been done so far by many representing us.
Long may it last and hopefully we're not commenting in times to come 'Remember when we had people like.....' because things have taken a turn for the worse.

careless sherpa

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In that the term is a perfect descriptive for the situation. Nobody was bothered about NI when voting to leave in 2016 so why would they be now?

It's why the term in Irish is sasamach, English out as it is a predominantly English decision. The Welsh were overlooked in the coinage of the term

Mr.Nice Guy

CelticRambler wrote: »

Besides, it's not like the DUP's most closely-held traditions even have a place "on the mainland" - you'd be hard pressed to find any British person who could tell you what an Orange parade was, unless maybe they confused it with the F du Citron on the Cd'Azur. (worth a visit, if ever you get the chance)

You would not be hard pressed to find someone in Scotland, particularly in Glasgow and the surrounding areas.

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

As is anyone born to a British parent in Switzerland, Somalia or South Carolina.

This is specific to the De Souza case though where she identifies as Irish as is her right. The UK Home Office recognizes this, but still considers her a British Citizen as they say she has to renounce her citizenship first before she is treated as Irish when it comes to immigration rules relating to her partner.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But if a person is born a British citizen, has allegiance to the British monarch and the British parliament, and identifies themselves as British, then what more can they do to prove that they are actually British?

Nothing - because it's a state of mind more than anything else.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

These are three dictionary definitions of 'British' ...

Dictionaries contain thousands of abstract nouns and adjectives. They also include definitions arising from "common usage" that don't translate well into real life.

Enzokk wrote: »

everyone born in NI who has a British parent is British until they renounce their British citizenship.

As is anyone born to a British parent in Switzerland, Somalia or South Carolina.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, they are British by citizenship i.e. by default. So I'm afraid it's up to you to substantiate any claim that they identify as anything other than British.

My children (red hair, blue eyes, freckled faces, fiery tempers, weirdly-spelt names) identify as Irish and travel on Irish passports, even though none of them was born in the country, and they grew up and were educated in two different countries neither of which was Ireland.

One of them has since chosen to reside in Ireland while completing his studies, but remains officially domiciled in France where I pay my taxes to the French government and am subject to the vagaries of French law. Whenever I feel my Irishness being diluted, I can top it up with a few cups of Lyons Tea and an hour of Radio na Gaeltachta. Putting a French stamp on a letter, and posting it in a yellow post-box beside a flagpole with a blue, white and red French tricolour doesn't diminish my Irishness one iota.

The point is: in the Act of Union, the United Kingdom recognised Ireland as a separate but co-equal island in the Kingdom, from a geographical/territorial point of view. Not hugely different to concept of a European Union. That the surface area was reduced in 1922 to just six of the 32 counties is irrelevant - it's still a distinct territory, and the people who live there are no more part of Great Britain than the British are part of the Netherlands, with whom Great Britain shares a long, tangled, bloody history starting with the arrival of King Billy.

Besides, it's not like the DUP's most closely-held traditions even have a place "on the mainland" - you'd be hard pressed to find any British person who could tell you what an Orange parade was, unless maybe they confused it with the Fête du Citron on the Côte d'Azur.

(worth a visit, if ever you get the chance)

And this is the fatal weakness of Brexit: not only was the referendum run against a portrayal of "Europe" as some foreign place, but even within the UK, there is a deep misunderstanding of who holds what status within the Kingdom, who's really British, and what kind of British are they (c.f. the Gurkha citizenship saga)? The collapse of the British Empire left an awful lot of obsolete dictionary definitions lying around, just waiting to clog up the machinery of "British" politics.

And now it's happened.

robindch

In April of 2018, JRM described TM's plan as "completely cretinous, impractical, bureaucratic and a betrayal of common sense".

In October of 2019, JRM says that, in repsect of a similar deal from BJ, he's prepared to "eat his words" because Churchill found that doing so was "nourishing":

Remember - War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength.

https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1183299227537022976

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Maybe the answer is why would they need to prove their Britishness? Surely if you felt an affinity to Britain, why do you need to prove it? I think the need to prove how British they are maybe shows an insecurity in their own identity.

Which is understandable. They are living in an artificially created state which didn't even exist 100 years ago, something akin to East Germany, Yugoslavia or North Korea.

It's little wonder they are insecure or worried about the future when you see what usually happens to such states.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Maybe the answer is why would they need to prove their Britishness? Surely if you felt an affinity to Britain, why do you need to prove it? I think the need to prove how British they are maybe shows an insecurity in their own identity.

Their sense of Britishness is deepened by the threat they feel to that Britishness. No other cohort in the UK feels under such threat.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But if a person is born a British citizen, has allegiance to the British monarch and the British parliament, and identifies themselves as British, then what more can they do to prove that they are actually British?

Maybe the answer is why would they need to prove their Britishness? Surely if you felt an affinity to Britain, why do you need to prove it? I think the need to prove how British they are maybe shows an insecurity in their own identity.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

The problem I see with identifying with a region or culture is that it comes down to feelings. I mean anyone can participate in a march, lots of people do in St Patrick's Day parades but it doesn't make them all Irish. But if they feel Irish who can tell them they are not, other than legally off course. I mean someone who is the child of Irish parents in the US but doesn't have Irish Citizenship could be more Irish than a naturalized citizen in Ireland but who still feels culturally tied to their country of birth where most of their family most likely is still living. Basically when it comes to feelings all bets are off because facts cannot always trump feelings.

But if a person is born a British citizen, has allegiance to the British monarch and the British parliament, and identifies themselves as British, then what more can they do to prove that they are actually British?

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what I was pretty much driving at. Legally, everyone in NI is part of the UK. They can request Irish citizenship should they so choose but that does not make them culturally British. People separated by large bodies of water can't remain culturally homogeneous with each other so I'd disagree with your Liverpool example. The marching bands, the bonfires and the other Unionist cultural nonsense are completely anachronistic with the rest of the UK save for parts of Scotland. Ironically, the Irish and NI Nationalists have more in common with the English than hardline Unionists IMO.

The problem I see with identifying with a region or culture is that it comes down to feelings. I mean anyone can participate in a march, lots of people do in St Patrick's Day parades but it doesn't make them all Irish. But if they feel Irish who can tell them they are not, other than legally off course. I mean someone who is the child of Irish parents in the US but doesn't have Irish Citizenship could be more Irish than a naturalized citizen in Ireland but who still feels culturally tied to their country of birth where most of their family most likely is still living. Basically when it comes to feelings all bets are off because facts cannot always trump feelings.

BorneTobyWilde

Shirley a high pound outside of the EU would make it impossible for anyone to buy stuff from the UK. Usually countries that want to trade with the rest of the world want a very low value currency.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

James O'Brien wrote:

As soon as your write it down on paper the entire thing falls apart

Any deal will be torn apart just as the May deal was. He'll be out flanked on the right by the Brexit part on the left by Lib Dems who are offer revoke. It will be a mess

I think you're right but I hope not. It's hard not to think that everyone is being so accommodating to each other so that they can say "Well I tried but they wouldn't compromise." once the stuff hits the fan.

threeball

Edgware wrote: »

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Can't see Johnson shifting towards a NI-only backstop, at least not at this juncture. He's got few enough friends as it is in Westminster and it wouldn't make sense to risk the wrath of the DUP and ERG, since this would hurt his credibility amongst the Brexiter electorate and give Farage room to paint him as not a true Brexiter. He'd find himself in May's predicament, squeezed by the hardliners. Perhaps he'd be willing to move towards this in a post-election scenario - only he knows - but would seem a very high risk move to try this now. Still think we're looking at a talks breakdown in the coming week.

If Johnson can come back from Brussels with a get out deal then a General Election is the next step. That will finish the D.U.P. holding the balace of power and the end of Corbyn

Corbyn is making a complete bollox of the whole situation. He's showing no willingness to work with the opposition parties in order to take measures to remove Johnson from the wheel if required. He's half hoping the Johnson crashes the car and he'll somehow get the wreckage back up and running with him at the controls.

LeinsterDub

Edgware wrote: »

If Johnson can come back from Brussels with a get out deal then a General Election is the next step. That will finish the D.U.P. holding the balace of power and the end of Corbyn

James O'Brien wrote:

As soon as your write it down on paper the entire thing falls apart

Any deal will be torn apart just as the May deal was. He'll be out flanked on the right by the Brexit party and on the left by Lib Dems who are offering revoke. It will be a mess

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. But they are British in so many different ways. Especially as they are citizens of the UK.

And most of us voted yes to the GFA which explicitly confers the right of everyone in NI to be British or Irish or both. I still believe in the GFA so if people in NI say they are British then I accept that.

I used to think the DUP were a strange kind of exceptionalist form of British that has little in common with those in GB. Brexit has taught me I was wrong. There are loads of their like in England too unfortunately.

Leroy42

Whilst the EU can set the length of any extension they offer, any extension longer than 31st Jan needs to be voted on by the HoC.

Igotadose

MikeSoys wrote: »

they can still leave on 31st without a deal right? with all the legal actions from remainders i guess they can still leave without a deal?

The Benn act requires HMG to request an extension to the 31 Oct deadline if an agreement has not been reached. The length of the extension is up to the EU. It's likely the PM has to make the request, though the law seems to allow for the Speaker to do so, should the PM choose (illegally) not to.

So, no, I don't think the UK can leave without a deal on the 31st.

Edgware

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Can't see Johnson shifting towards a NI-only backstop, at least not at this juncture. He's got few enough friends as it is in Westminster and it wouldn't make sense to risk the wrath of the DUP and ERG, since this would hurt his credibility amongst the Brexiter electorate and give Farage room to paint him as not a true Brexiter. He'd find himself in May's predicament, squeezed by the hardliners. Perhaps he'd be willing to move towards this in a post-election scenario - only he knows - but would seem a very high risk move to try this now. Still think we're looking at a talks breakdown in the coming week.

If Johnson can come back from Brussels with a get out deal then a General Election is the next step. That will finish the D.U.P. holding the balace of power and the end of Corbyn

MikeSoys

NotToScale wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently consent will now not be a rolling issue. Instead it will be a 'one off event', source retweeted by Peter Foster. 'Single market and Customs Union, in or out'.

I am smelling a referendum here...

They're going to have to have an extension though! I mean it's entirely impossible to have a referendum setup and complete by Halloween. This should have been organised 6+ months ago.

The whole thing is a complete and utter farce and it's endangering stability in the UK both economic and political as well as undermining all sorts of long term planning in the UK, EU and beyond.

How anyone would ever trust the UK as a destination for investment again for a very long time is beyond me. The words "political instability" tend to frighten a lot of people off, particularly when that instability related to the regulation of things that impact business and investment.

At a whim they've basically pulled the rug out from under vast numbers of business both multinational and domestic and we've someone installed in No. 10 who has said "f### business".

It's looking more like Russia - a place where business can be pulled apart by political manoeuvring, rather than the great trading nation they imagine themselves to be.

they can still leave on 31st without a deal right? with all the legal actions from remainders i guess they can still leave without a deal?

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

You are both right, they are legally British but culturally they are Northern Irish. The same as Scouse not English for people from Liverpool, people will take British passports but they feel very little affinity to people from outside of Liverpool.

That's what I was pretty much driving at. Legally, everyone in NI is part of the UK. They can request Irish citizenship should they so choose but that does not make them culturally British. People separated by large bodies of water can't remain culturally homogeneous with each other so I'd disagree with your Liverpool example. The marching bands, the bonfires and the other Unionist cultural nonsense are completely anachronistic with the rest of the UK save for parts of Scotland. Ironically, the Irish and NI Nationalists have more in common with the English than hardline Unionists IMO.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nationalists also live in the UK, are government by Westminster and pay tax to the British state so you'd call them British as well, presumably?

I'm trying to find polls or some equivalent but nothing is turning up but there doesn't seem to be anything I can use. If you have evidence of your own, I'd be interested to see it otherwise, I think I have to leave it.

This research from 1989 found that Protestants identified as:

British 68%
Irish 3%
Ulster 10%
Northern Irish 16%

Sam Russell

Shelga wrote: »

I think the issue is that there is no such term as ‘UK-ish’- which is what they are. I heard someone on a podcast last week say that Brexit should be called UKexit. Not as snappy as Brexit- however the term Brexit inadvertently displays the total lack of consideration for Northern Ireland throughout this whole fiasco.

I heard someone in a 'No Border' protest on the Derry border saying calling it Brexit ignores the North. He said a better name would have been UK-off.

I do see his point.

briany

Shelga wrote: »

Not as snappy as Brexit- however the term Brexit inadvertently displays the total lack of consideration for Northern Ireland throughout this whole fiasco.

Yes, and that's what makes Brexit a very apt phrase. If you'd said D.U.P. to Brexiteers pre-2017, how many would have thought you were referring to a courier service?

Enzokk

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Indeed, and I hope that girl wins her case. It's a nonsensical position by the UK government.

I wasn't defending British people or their government. We can only control our approach to it, and treat it in good faith. I work with a lot of people who consider themselves British, doesn't bother me. More and more young people in NI are indentifying themselves as Northern Irish now anyway, which may go some way to making an actual future for the place.

I am baffled by the Home Office position as well. I understand that if someone doesn't choose an identity in NI they should be seen a British, but once you make the choice there should be no confusion of your rights as per the GFA. That is how I see it, but it is part of the hostile environment from May where they will use any and every law to deny immigrants their rights.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, they are British by citizenship i.e. by default. So I'm afraid it's up to you to substantiate any claim that they identify as anything other than British.

You are both right, they are legally British but culturally they are Northern Irish. The same as Scouse not English for people from Liverpool, people will take British passports but they feel very little affinity to people from outside of Liverpool.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

I think the issue is that there is no such term as ‘UK-ish’- which is what they are. I heard someone on a podcast last week say that Brexit should be called UKexit. Not as snappy as Brexit- however the term Brexit inadvertently displays the total lack of consideration for Northern Ireland throughout this whole fiasco.

In that the term is a perfect descriptive for the situation. Nobody was bothered about NI when voting to leave in 2016 so why would they be now?