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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Joe_ Public

Remember years ago when the Irish national rugby team was total garbage and some wise old stager was asked if he could see any light at the end of the tunnel and replied, "sure i can't even see the feckin' tunnel". Kind of reminds me a bit of the brexit deal situation right now.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The bigger question being, why was Leo so desperate to go for this now, when he dismissed similar ideas before?

I suppose he sees it as his very last chance to stave off No Deal. At least nobody can accuse him of being 'intransigent'.....he has tried to engage with the British side and to facilitate a deal, even if it comes to nought.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is that what it says on their passports? I thought they were British citizens, loyal to their monarch and attending their parliament in London.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They are British nonetheless. They're entitled to their identity, especially as they are British citizens.

A common misconception. They are citizens of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. That's what it says on their passports. Note the use, on formal documents issued in the name of Her Majesty, of a specific phrase to indicate that one territory of the Kingdom is separate and distinct from Great Britain.

The vast majority of Northern Irish unionists are no more British than the millions of Americans who insist they're Irish on account of some long-forgotten ancestor with an O'Something in his name. They are, however, accorded "British" (i.e. UKish) citizenship on account of the circumstances of their birth.

It is strange how this question of confused identity runs through the whole Brexit debate. Even within Great Britain, there are people appear to struggle with whether or not they are "British" with many now emphasising their Englishness or Scottishness in preference to the British designation. Another unforeseen consequence of the referendum, and one which hasn't yet run its course.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is that what it says on their passports? I thought they were British citizens, loyal to their monarch and attending their parliament in London.

Same as the Welsh and Scottish who see themselves as Welsh and Scottish respectively.

gooch2k9

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would they do that?

I'm sure there are countries out there who are sick of dealing with the UK and would rather see them on their way. Macron had to be persuaded to give them this one, which they were told not to waste. He'll need serious persuading again I would say.

Mr.Nice Guy

Can't see Johnson shifting towards a NI-only backstop, at least not at this juncture. He's got few enough friends as it is in Westminster and it wouldn't make sense to risk the wrath of the DUP and ERG, since this would hurt his credibility amongst the Brexiter electorate and give Farage room to paint him as not a true Brexiter. He'd find himself in May's predicament, squeezed by the hardliners. Perhaps he'd be willing to move towards this in a post-election scenario - only he knows - but would seem a very high risk move to try this now. Still think we're looking at a talks breakdown in the coming week.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

A common misconception. They are citizens of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. That's what it says on their passports. Note the use, on formal documents issued in the name of Her Majesty, of a specific phrase to indicate that one territory of the Kingdom is separate and distinct from Great Britain.

The vast majority of Northern Irish unionists are no more British than the millions of Americans who insist they're Irish on account of some long-forgotten ancestor with an O'Something in his name. They do, however, have a right to apply for British citizenship on account of the circumstances of their birth.

It is strange how this question of confused identity runs through the whole Brexit debate. Even within Great Britain, there are people appear to struggle with whether or not they are "British" with many now emphasising their Englishness or Scottishness in preference to the British designation. Another unforeseen consequence of the referendum, and one which hasn't yet run its course.

I agree with much of your post with two exceptions.

These are three dictionary definitions of 'British':

British means belonging or relating to the United Kingdom, or to its people or culture. Collins
Belonging to or relating to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland or its people: Cambridge
Relating to Great Britain or the United Kingdom, or to its people or language. Oxford

So DUP members are most certainly British.

Also, the bit in bold is wrong.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Am I right in thinking that if BJ does not ask for an extension, the opposition can get a VONC and then install a caretaker Gov, ask for the extension, and then set up a 2nd ref, and when it is done, call a GE.

They would not require a huge amount of time to do all of that if they get the extension. I would think a May GE might be ironic.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next week. I see the idea of a 2nd referendum is gaining momentum and it seems like the numbers are almost there to get it across the line as well.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1183395994794414081?s=20

As for the UK position, well seems like Johnson is playing it close to his chest and we will have a further update on Tuesday to see where they feel they stand,

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1183468560015863818?s=20

I am not confident a deal will emerge, there is just so many items that either side cannot compromise on which makes it impossible. I think Varadkar had to go and try and get a deal. Ireland and the EU could not be seen to stop a deal, this has always been true and especially with Johnson trying to frame it this way as well. It seems to me the past talks was just an exercise to give the UK enough rope, once their proposals are officially out there and can then be seen by all it would be clear which side was realistically looking for a deal, instead of the mudslinging Johnson was doing before these talks started.

This may have been very shrewd move by the EU to change the framing of who is to blame. The EU has been open to talks to get a deal but the proposals weren't acceptable because they aren't realistic. That is easier to fight than the narrative that they are just saying no without even looking at our proposals.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Same as the Welsh and Scottish who see themselves as Welsh and Scottish respectively.

Indeed. But they are British in so many different ways. Especially as they are citizens of the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. But they are British in so many different ways. Especially as they are citizens of the UK.

I'm going to continue to disagree. I see virtually no similarities between Northern Ireland's Unionists and the English save for some shared beliefs between them and the Tory hard right.

Leroy42

They appear to be even further from a deal that previously. Johnson has basically torn up the WA, and not only that but asked the EU to tear up their rulebook. We are back talking about stuff that was laughed at at Chequers, but now the EU are willing to discuss it?

ToBeFrank123

A referendum of the people of NI on the future of the backstop would be the fairest way of deciding it.

NI parties routinely fail to represent their constituents views. You only have to look at the shuttered Stormont to see that.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm going to continue to disagree. I see virtually no similarities between Northern Ireland's Unionists and the English save for some shared beliefs between them and the Tory hard right.

Sure. But there are shared loyalties. A shared history. A shared parliament. A shared economy. A shared Protestantism. DUP members see themselves as British. And they're entitled to do that.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sure. But there are shared loyalties. A shared history. A shared parliament. A shared economy. A shared Protestantism. DUP members see themselves as British. And they're entitled to do that.

None of this makes them British. I don't think the DUP's members do see themselves as British. Even if they do, they don't speak for Unionism as a whole thanks to the broken voting system.

gooch2k9

In fairness Professor M is right, they do see themselves as British and that's fair enough. That's what half the problems with flags are about here, their insecurity over the matter.

The GFA gave the people here the opportunity to identify whichever way they wished so you have to respect their right to call themselves British. We can't cherrypick which parts we adhere to.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

They appear to be even further from a deal that previously. Johnson has basically torn up the WA, and not only that but asked the EU to tear up their rulebook. We are back talking about stuff that was laughed at at Chequers, but now the EU are willing to discuss it?

'Discuss' is not a negotiation though. These are just ideas that are being bounced backwards and forwards, a sounding out of each other's positions.

ancapailldorcha

gooch2k9 wrote: »

In fairness Professor M is right, they do see themselves as British and that's fair enough. That's what half the problems with flags are about here, their insecurity over the matter.

The GFA gave the people here the opportunity to identify whichever way they wished so you have to respect their right to call themselves British. We can't cherrypick which parts we adhere to.

I'll change my mind if I see any data but I'm struggling to find any so I've only my own background and opinion to go by and judging on those, their culture is partly Irish but it's a distinct subculture.

Thargor

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also everyone was in recession last time except maybe Canada and Norway.

This time it will be just the UK.

Anything worth salvaging will be bought up and probably asset stripped by foreign investors once the £ drops enough.

Australia is coming up on 30 years without a recession.

NotToScale

It speaks volumes that even the adjective they use and the noun for UK Citizen is "British" which completely ignores the fact that it was the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Team GB should be Team UK. The use of GB as a country code on things is yet more Northern Ireland erasure.

The UK has a massive problem with its own identity and this is what is bubbling through all of this. Effectively British seems to mean England and those who are loyal to England. It's not really an inclusive term unless you're willing to submit to some kind of hierarchy of nations within the term British.

It's most unlike the way American as an adjective tends to be extremely inclusive of all of the US states. Or the way European sits quite happily along side all sorts of national identities. Oddly it's mostly English nationalists who seem to find huge offence in that.

Enzokk

gooch2k9 wrote: »

In fairness Professor M is right, they do see themselves as British and that's fair enough. That's what half the problems with flags are about here, their insecurity over the matter.

The GFA gave the people here the opportunity to identify whichever way they wished so you have to respect their right to call themselves British. We can't cherrypick which parts we adhere to.

Well the UK Home Office has decided that the GFA is trumped by the 1981 British Nationality Act and everyone born in NI who has a British parent is British until they renounce their British citizenship. So it is not clear from the UK Government side if they even respect the choice to identify as either Irish or British.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

'Discuss' is not a negotiation though. These are just ideas that are being bounced backwards and forwards, a sounding out of each other's positions.

But the UK are still only bringing 'ideas'. No actual plan of how it would work and, if the likes of Tony Connelly are correct, the UK have gone backwards.

These are all ideas, along the lines of mac fac, that have already been rubbished.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

None of this makes them British. I don't think the DUP's members do see themselves as British. Even if they do, they don't speak for Unionism as a whole thanks to the broken voting system.

They are British citizens. Of course they are also unionists but then you have Scottish and Welsh Unionists. And even English unionists.

This is the very first line of the DUP's mission statement:
"Our vision is to maintain and enhance Northern Ireland’s constitutional position within the United Kingdom"

So they are British. By definition, citizenship and allegiance.

They speak for far fewer people now than they did at the GE, thankfully. Still won't stop them beginning every sentence with "The people of Northern Ireland..." when interviewed.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

None of this makes them British. I don't think the DUP's members do see themselves as British. Even if they do, they don't speak for Unionism as a whole thanks to the broken voting system.

Well, the DUP is the largest Unionist party. If a Northern Irish Unionist carries a British Passport, has British citizenship, holds the British monarchy in high regard, flies the Union Jack, stands up for GSTQ, considers their cultural and historical lineage to originate in Britain and continues to favour union with Britain, then they sound pretty British to me.

I'd compare Unionists to the Boers. They consider a new land to be their home, and maintain their right to live there, but they also have a strong sense of where they originally came from and an abiding sense of otherness to the natives.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They are British citizens. Of course they are also unionists but then you have Scottish and Welsh Unionists. And even English unionists.

This is the very first line of the DUP's mission statement:
"Our vision is to maintain and enhance Northern Ireland’s constitutional position within the United Kingdom"

So they are British. By definition, citizenship and allegiance.

They speak for far fewer people now than they did at the GE, thankfully. Still won't stop them beginning every sentence with "The people of Northern Ireland..." when interviewed.

Again, this doesn't make them British. They have a distinct identity. Do you have anything to substantiate the claim that they identify explicitly as British and not Irish? If not then I'll leave it there as we're starting to repeat ourselves.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Again, this doesn't make them British. They have a distinct identity. Do you have anything to substantiate the claim that they identify explicitly as British and not Irish? If not then I'll leave it there as we're starting to repeat ourselves.

Well, they are British by citizenship i.e. by default. So I'm afraid it's up to you to substantiate any claim that they identify as anything other than British.

gooch2k9

Enzokk wrote: »

Well the UK Home Office has decided that the GFA is trumped by the 1981 British Nationality Act and everyone born in NI who has a British parent is British until they renounce their British citizenship. So it is not clear from the UK Government side if they even respect the choice to identify as either Irish or British.

Indeed, and I hope that girl wins her case. It's a nonsensical position by the UK government.

I wasn't defending British people or their government. We can only control our approach to it, and treat it in good faith. I work with a lot of people who consider themselves British, doesn't bother me. More and more young people in NI are indentifying themselves as Northern Irish now anyway, which may go some way to making an actual future for the place.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the UK are still only bringing 'ideas'. No actual plan of how it would work and, if the likes of Tony Connelly are correct, the UK have gone backwards.

These are all ideas, along the lines of mac fac, that have already been rubbished.

The FT reports this evening the EU are "baffled" by some of the UK's customs proposals and say progress has been painfully slow.

It seems time is running out rapidly and not a whole lot is actually happening.

Enzokk

Just to highlight the position right now,

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1183448110145720320?s=20

"Michel Barnier said the EU should give one last chance to the British as he met EU diplomats this evening. He said no significant progress had been made over the weekend, but thinks worth continuing talks until Wednesday - one day before European council. "

It is about giving the UK the chance to get their proposals front and centre and not have the blame shifted to the EU.

looksee

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_Northern_Ireland

Might answer some questions.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, they are British by citizenship i.e. by default. So I'm afraid it's up to you to substantiate any claim that they identify as anything other than British.

Nationalists also live in the UK, are government by Westminster and pay tax to the British state so you'd call them British as well, presumably?

I'm trying to find polls or some equivalent but nothing is turning up but there doesn't seem to be anything I can use. If you have evidence of your own, I'd be interested to see it otherwise, I think I have to leave it.