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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Imreoir2

Hurrache wrote: »

Let the fevered speculation begin!
[url]
https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1182616333420244992?s=19[/url]

Well we can only assume that Johnson has conceeded on customs, otherwise there would be no point in going into the tunnel. The question is what Johnson wants in return for this concession. Is this just an excercise in domestic politics to keep the opposition off his back for a little while, or is it a real effort to get a deal. The risk with coming back with a deal is of course that it opens you up to criticism from the right that the deal is not Brexity enough because of the lack of unicorns, but an arangement on NI consent may be the key to fending off such attacks. Any fig leaf around NI being able to opt out of the backstop in some form or another may be enough to allow Johnson to clam victory over the unescapable backstop.

That does beg the question, why would Johnson want a deal? He is after all portrayed as the villian driving the UK to no-deal with plenty of people suggesting that no-deal is what he really wants. It is worth bearing in mind that he did vote for May's deal and as such he is not such a dyed in the wool Brexiter as he might like to pretend. Then there is the seeming coin flip decision he made to support Brexit before the referendum. I don't think Johnson is an ideologue, I think he is an opportunist that will do what ever serves his own interests best. No-deal has been made very dificult and I can't see it serving Johnson well as a choice. So perhaps he does want a deal, for his own selfish reasons.

Perhaps, as reported, he has accepted that his party wont accept a no-deal manifesto for the GE. Maybe now the next best thing would be to come back with a deal and have the opposition vote it down and as a bonus also force an extension. He can then say that the opposition are the ones that blocked both Brexit with a deal and Brexit without a deal. That could well set up an election where the idea that Labour is blocking any kind of Brexit is very plausible.

The trick for Johnson is to fight an election where the pro-brexit side is relativly united behind him while the remainers are devided between Labour and the Lib-Dems. This could well be what he will get.

josip

Why are the DUP so quiet this time?
Politically they still wield almost as much clout as when Arlene scuppered May's deal.
BJ can't cut them loose because he may still require their support to form a majority after the election.
But they're unnaturally quiet, even the rabid, hardline, loose cannons.

Professor Genius

josip wrote: »

Why are the DUP so quiet this time?
Politically they still wield almost as much clout as when Arlene scuppered May's deal.
BJ can't cut them loose because he may still require their support to form a majority after the election.

He won’t be thinking that way. An NI only backstop with some consent to continue of both communities (ie essentially no way it won’t be consented to) will be the outcome. Enough Labour MPs will vote for it to get through HoC. It’s game over for DUP

josip

Professor Genius wrote: »

He won’t be thinking that way. An NI only backstop with some consent to continue of both communities (ie essentially no way it won’t be consented to) will be the outcome. Enough Labour MPs will vote for it to get through HoC. It’s game over for DUP

Agree with you, but why aren't they screaming blue murder for this betrayal and being abandoned?

farmchoice

fergiesfolly wrote: »

A bit preemptive, but if a deal is agreed and the UK have an orderly exit from the EU, what happens next?

once the deal is agreed and the passed in the UK an and europe the uk officially leaves the EU (whether this is the 31st of October remains to be seen).
the WA means there is then a transition period during which everything in the UK remains the same as it is now (same as eu membership, freedom of movement etc etc). initially that was up to 31-12-20 (i think) and that is still the date in the WA but i suppose the uk might look to have this extended out now seeing as we have lost so much time.
in this transition period (or as T May called it the implementation period) the UK will look to negotiate their future relationship with the EU covering all areas.

then on the 1-1-21 they head off into the brave new world either with the backstop in force or not depending on how the previous negotiations have gone.
the chances of a full future relationship deal being done in less than 2 years seems wildly optimistic so prepare for brexit crisis mark II to crank up in to the run up to that date , whenever it may be.

Hurrache

josip wrote: »

Agree with you, but why aren't they screaming blue murder for this betrayal and being abandoned?

They have no idea what's happening I reckon.

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

They have no idea what's happening I reckon.

Id say they are running around like headless chickens right now

blackcard

BJ was recently being cheered to the rafters and hailed as a hero by the DUP. If he throws them under the bus, I can't imagine the vitriol that Arlene Foster and Sammy Wilson will throw at him.
But it will show BJ's true nature as looking after himself first and not being a person to trust

Nate--IRL--

I suspect the DUP were told not to worry, BJ is just playing for time - it's not a real negotiation. It will be interesting to see if he stabs them in the back.

Nate

gooch2k9

blackcard wrote: »

BJ was recently being cheered to the rafters and hailed as a hero by the DUP. If he throws them under the bus, I can't imagine the vitriol that Arlene Foster and Sammy Wilson will throw at him.
But it will show BJ's true nature as looking after himself first and not being a person to trust

British PMs have done so before and likely will do so again in the future. They simply don't care for NI. It's a particularly blinkered view ulster unionists have of the relationship. I wouldn't even put this down to Johnson, any English PM would do the same if necessary.

Agree the DUP don't know exactly what's going on so can't rail against it.

ToBeFrank123

The less information given to the DUP the better.

They can't say No to something they know nothing about. Can they?

Can NI set its own corporation tax by the way? Being in the Customs Union would be a huge opportunity for the north.

josip

Hurrache wrote: »

They have no idea what's happening I reckon.

VinLieger wrote: »

Id say they are running around like headless chickens right now

It might be nice to think that, but ever since BJ lost his Commons majority they'd have known that this day could come, regardless of what BJ said out of the other side of his mouth.
So they'd have had the vitriol prepared well in advance.

They've been bought off, with something that has value to them, whatever that is. Might not be money.

J Mysterio

I still maintain it will be:

1. Extension
2. Johnson majority
3. Sea border backstop Brexit

No.3 will have some consent/ ref element.

VinLieger

Edward Carson (1921) wrote:

What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.

You can't say they weren't warned

Water John

After a GE is a new Govn't. Firstly odds are reasonably low that 10 seats are critical. Also all have to live with the situation in front of them. Remember Johnson says, this Parliament is dead. Even if this HOC rejects the Deal, he'll present it and get it through a new Parliament.

briany

blackcard wrote: »

BJ was recently being cheered to the rafters and hailed as a hero by the DUP. If he throws them under the bus, I can't imagine the vitriol that Arlene Foster and Sammy Wilson will throw at him.
But it will show BJ's true nature as looking after himself first and not being a person to trust

We'll have to wait until we see further details, but the DUP cannot be publicly opposed to something that stipulates cross-community consent. In this whole thing, the DUP have been claiming to represent the interests of NI. We know, of course, that they do not. At the very least, if they did come out against cross-community consent, they would be shown for what they are and the conversation could be moved forward on that basis.

On a side note, what are the EU optimistic about? That they're close to achieving an agreement with Johnson? It was just about this time last year that they came to an agreement with May, and look how that worked out. It would be naive to be optimistic over the same course of events. Unless Johnson has given assurances that an agreed deal can get through parliament, which I don't see how he can, then the only reason for optimism is to appear optimistic, as a strategic measure.

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

I still maintain it will be:

1. Extension
2. Johnson majority
3. Sea border backstop Brexit

No.3 will have some consent/ ref element.

This makes sense, especially if Johnson gets his majority and can then just let GB crash out hard in 18 months or whatever it is when the transition period is up. There's no "extension" he can be forced to ask for then. He would have to lose a VoNC to be removed but if he's got a healthy majority of ERG types that won't happen.

He may have simply realised that he can't get no deal now because of parliamentary arithmetic, but if he's prepared to wait a little longer he can get the same thing (minus NI which nobody cares about anyway).

Quin_Dub

reslfj wrote: »

You do not understand anything about power-politics and the size of the EU in this the real world, where adults rule.

The EU member states will not long or even medium term accept, that some countries and indeed geographically nearby 3. countries do not enforce a 'Level Playing Field' in taxation, environment, working condition etc.

The EU member states will surely not for long accept the LX or Irish model of allowing huge global companies to use EU rules and regulations to 'migrate' the profit from their business in other member states e.g. Germany, France or Sweden into Ireland or LX and pay all taxes there(at low or extremely low rates)

Small countries with good and sane governments will know when it's "An offer they can't refuse" and their game is up.

Lars

PS! All EU countries are small in these respects when alone

No , I absolutely understand. I don't think our post contradicts anything I've said.

The question was , will they make us change our Corporate tax rate?

The answer is no , they cannot do that but as I said , they absolutely will resolve at some point the future the repatriation of profits between countries seeking the lowest tax rates.

That does not change Irelands tax rate , but it will change what money companies can apply that tax rate to.

They cannot "force" Ireland to do anything as it relates to Taxation , but they can change the rules for everyone , which will be harder, Ireland is not the only country to benefit from the ability to move profits between states.

Enzokk

Professor Genius wrote: »

He won’t be thinking that way. An NI only backstop with some consent to continue of both communities (ie essentially no way it won’t be consented to) will be the outcome. Enough Labour MPs will vote for it to get through HoC. It’s game over for DUP

There was support for May's deal at the last vote of 5 Labour MP's. The deal Johnson will bring back will on no way be better for the UK workers or what Labour wants since then, so how do you reckon they get the votes this time? Labour and the opposition can do what they want with Brexit as Johnson has lost his majority and they are playing the long game of the election that will hopefully sort all of this out after an extension is granted.

I cannot see Labour supporting this deal other than those 5 that did so before and thus there will not be a majority for the deal. If it looks like May's deal then the ERG will kick up a fuss, if it is a Irish Sea Border then he loses 10 DUP votes he has to make up somewhere else. If it suits the ERG then the rebels and MPs he lost will not vote for it.

Johnson is snookered and unless he comes back with a deal Labour and Corbyn can support (customs union, single market membership just about and protection of workers rights) he is not getting it through. If he gets a Brexit deal the Brexit Party votes will break for him and Labour loses their chance of a majority/coalition. There is very little chance of Labour supporting Johnson's deal.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

We'll have to wait until we see further details, but the DUP cannot be publicly opposed to something that stipulates cross-community consent. In this whole thing, the DUP have been claiming to represent the interests of NI. We know, of course, that they do not. At the very least, if they did come out against cross-community consent, they would be shown for what they are and the conversation could be moved forward on that basis.

On a side note, what are the EU optimistic about? That they're close to achieving an agreement with Johnson? It was just about this time last year that they came to an agreement with May, and look how that worked out. It would be naive to be optimistic over the same course of events. Unless Johnson has given assurances that an agreed deal can get through parliament, which I don't see how he can, then the only reason for optimism is to appear optimistic, as a strategic measure.

Seems to me, they are optimistic because Varadkar is optimistic. But, of course, Tusk is reminding us not to get carried away

blanch152

briany wrote: »

We'll have to wait until we see further details, but the DUP cannot be publicly opposed to something that stipulates cross-community consent. In this whole thing, the DUP have been claiming to represent the interests of NI. We know, of course, that they do not. At the very least, if they did come out against cross-community consent, they would be shown for what they are and the conversation could be moved forward on that basis.

On a side note, what are the EU optimistic about? That they're close to achieving an agreement with Johnson? It was just about this time last year that they came to an agreement with May, and look how that worked out. It would be naive to be optimistic over the same course of events. Unless Johnson has given assurances that an agreed deal can get through parliament, which I don't see how he can, then the only reason for optimism is to appear optimistic, as a strategic measure.

The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland.

I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

I still maintain it will be:

1. Extension
2. Johnson majority
3. Sea border backstop Brexit

No.3 will have some consent/ ref element.

This seems most likely, but his majority will depend how the extension is applied for. If he sends the letter he will not get a majority and the Brexit Party will eat him alive.

murphaph wrote: »

This makes sense, especially if Johnson gets his majority and can then just let GB crash out hard in 18 months or whatever it is when the transition period is up. There's no "extension" he can be forced to ask for then. He would have to lose a VoNC to be removed but if he's got a healthy majority of ERG types that won't happen.

He may have simply realised that he can't get no deal now because of parliamentary arithmetic, but if he's prepared to wait a little longer he can get the same thing (minus NI which nobody cares about anyway).

I still see a lot of obstacles for a Johnson majority though, he will have to try and get the Brexit Party votes which will mean he will have to go for a no-deal Brexit, but that will lose the moderate Tories to the Lib Dems and he loses a majority. If he goes for the moderate vote Farage will take his votes on the extreme side that he has been courting all this time.

I don't think a Johnson victory is guaranteed. I can see a Labour/Lib Dem coalition only because the Tories will have around 150 seats only if Johnson isn't careful.

LuckyLloyd

josip wrote: »

Why are the DUP so quiet this time?
Politically they still wield almost as much clout as when Arlene scuppered May's deal.
BJ can't cut them loose because he may still require their support to form a majority after the election.
But they're unnaturally quiet, even the rabid, hardline, loose cannons.

I don’t think they command any clout in the absence of a functioning government depending on them to maintain a majority.

hometruths

blanch152 wrote: »

The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland.

I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.

That's a very good point. The DUP could be bought off in this way. Is it in Leo/Johnson's power to amend the GFA to do this if they can agree themselves?

An Ciarraioch

The Commission's tweet reads as though the UK has made a suggestion, but will take a significant length of time to see if it actually can be practical:

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1182632481180307456

Enzokk

blanch152 wrote: »

The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland.

I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.

Interesting, but surely that is not in the spirit of the GFA if it is up to the NI Assembly whether they leave the UK and unite with Ireland instead of the people in a referendum?

LuckyLloyd

The EU can only negotiate with the UK government of the day. Reaching an agreement with them would absolutely be a positive optimistic thing. The EU has not to date and certainly should not try and negotiate with UK political elements outside of the government.

I told ya

Maybe the DUP have read the writings of the Late Conor Cruise O'Brien.

Something along the lines of " the Ulster Unionists need to realise that their last battle will not be with the Irish Nationalists but with the English Nationalists"

Or maybe Carson's line about the Tories.

IMV that piece in The Telegraph is a warning to the DUP. I can't see any other reason why they would adopt that position now, without a nod from No. 10 or Tory HQ.

Also, I am surprised why the cost of NI v EU has not been raised before this. Maybe a case of keep your powder dry.

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Commission's tweet reads as though the UK has made a suggestion, but will take a significant length of time to see if it actually can be practical:

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1182632481180307456

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

Tippex

Enzokk wrote: »

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

yep it does not seem to be anywhere near that stage yet so we may hear some bits and pieces over the next few hours.