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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Kermit.de.frog

Tusk confirming that a proposal must be made by the end of the day by the UK.

Sterling on biggest 2 day rally in 3 years. The market is buying the optimism, for now.

The Varadkar bounce?

storker

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Blame then less likely to stick when it goes to the wall on 31st Oct.

I've never understood the concerns about blame for a UK crash-out, whether it's Brexiteers trying to attach it to the EU or EU-supporters concerned about avoiding this. Surely anyone can see where the blame for this fiasco truly lies: with the people who started it. To my mind, the only people who will blame the EU are the same people who were always blaming the EU for everything anyway. Perhaps some British EU-philes or more moderate Brexiteers (assuming such a creature exists) will agree with the anti-EU blamestorming, but to be blunt, seeing as they'd no longer be EU citizens at that point, who cares?

ToBeFrank123

The problem for Johnson is the same as for May.

He can agree a deal with Ireland and the EU. But the HoC could still say No.

Hopefully most MPs see sense.

fash

storker wrote: »

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Blame then less likely to stick when it goes to the wall on 31st Oct.

I've never understood the concerns about blame for a UK crash-out, whether it's Brexiteers trying to attach it to the EU or EU-supporters concerned about avoiding this. Surely anyone can see where the blame for this fiasco truly lies: with the people who started it. To my mind, the only people who will blame the EU are the same people who were always blaming the EU for everything anyway. Perhaps some British EU-philes or more moderate Brexiteers (assuming such a creature exists) will agree with the anti-EU blamestorming, but to be blunt, seeing as they'd no longer be EU citizens at that point, who cares?

It determines who has the upper hand in post no deal UK: the remainers/soft leavers saying "we told you so", the no deal/hard brexiters saying "we would have gotten away with it is it wasn't for the vindictive EU". Could be reasonably important moving forward.

Enzokk

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182600491886403585?s=20

So the update is that the meeting was positive, the EU sees a path to a deal. If there is no-deal then it cannot be blamed on the EU as they are open to one. Move back to Johnson and the UK. Bring us your proposals that we are saying in public are good proposals.

Seems very astute from the EU, puts the onus on the UK to give proposals that are workable. Lets see what Cummings can rustle up.

liamtech

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The problem for Johnson is the same as for May.

He can agree a deal with Ireland and the EU. But the HoC could still say No.

Hopefully most MPs see sense.

Hypothetically - if the deal

covers all EU red Lines - no hard border/customs checks
is supported by NI Business and manufacturing (one of the craziest things was these groups reactions to BoJo Deal 1, widespread condemnation and panic
Sees GB at the very least, leave the EU completely but with a deal and clean/orderly
Consent wise it could be that both the UK, EU, and NI have to agree on a change with all 3 having a veto (of course cries of being held hostage etc)
allows for the commencement of second stage negotiations
is agreed by Dublin
therefore also agreed by the EU

In this situation, it would be difficult to see a substantial reason for voting against it

Pro Brexit Labor would probably vote for it
the SNP wouldnt of course, and neither would the Lib-Dems
but there could be a slim majority
If Corbyn came out against it despite it meeting the conditions it would damage him IMHO

That said, i cant see the deal covering all the red lines, or having NI support - or having widespread support between the EU, UK, and NI

All hypothetical, we just have to see what 'IT' is

newport2

blackcard wrote: »

I am worried that we have used up all our favours with other EU countries and still be in a worse position than if Brexit had never happened. If other EU countries come looking for changes to our Corporate tax system, we will not be in a position to say no.

One of the key reasons for our current position on Brexit is to protect the single market, so I don't think it'll be viewed as a favour. I don't see what move Ireland could make that wouldn't undermine the single market, which is the EU's interest.

murphaph

It'll all come down to Labour if they manage to agree a deal but in reality this NI only deal is objectively much worse than May's deal as it fails even more miserably Labour's 6 tests than hers did. Hers left GB much closer to the EU. Can Labour really vote for this NI only backstop that will see GB jobs decimated? I can't see it really. I think they would push for a second referendum and campaign to revoke A50. If there's time. If the EU haven't had enough of this carry on.

I told ya

I think the piece in The Telegraph today is significant - millstone around our neck, NI costs more that the EU, RofI a great place to live.......

I would view it as the DUP being warned off. From a quick look at a few news sites there is no sign of Arlene or Nigel or Sammy.

Could it be a boarder down the Irish See, so smile and look happy.

Or maybe Johnson/Cummings really have a cunning plan.

Kermit.de.frog

That article slating NI's position in the UK is not an accident nor is it's timing.

100% Cummings handiwork.

Tea Shock

murphaph wrote: »

It'll all come down to Labour if they manage to agree a deal but in reality this NI only deal is objectively much worse than May's deal as it fails even more miserably Labour's 6 tests than hers did. Hers left GB much closer to the EU. Can Labour really vote for this NI only backstop that will see GB jobs decimated? I can't see it really. I think they would push for a second referendum and campaign to revoke A50. If there's time. If the EU haven't had enough of this carry on.

There'd also be job losses in NI. Even though the sea border may be the lesser of the 2 evils

Looking at the issues of the border down the Irish sea, it means tariffs on NI goods going to/from Great Britain. But NI exports treble the amount to GB that it does to RoI and it exports more than 5.5 times to GB what it exports to the rest of the EU (2017 NISRA figures)

So new tariffs with GB means job losses!

With a lot of talk about a N-only referendum on where the border goes, are we sure that given a choice between a border in the Irish Sea and a border with the Republic, would, after the usual bull**** campaigning, go the way of an Irish Sea border being implemented. Even allowing for the fact that there are a couple of other factors at play apart from just export quantities.

Tea Shock

Breaking: Tunnel negations are starting say Sky News

Tippex

Being reported that Barnier has been given the go-ahead to go into "tunnel" negotiations.
Seen it on some tweets but Sky news now reporting it.
When will we start to hear what is being offered?

Hurrache

Let the fevered speculation begin!
[url]

https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1182616333420244992?s=19[/url]

Hurrache

Tippex wrote: »

Being reported that Barnier has been given the go-ahead to go into "tunnel" negotiations.
Seen it on some tweets but Sky news now reporting it.
When will we start to hear what is being offered?

Not until negotiations are finished and a deal agreed or not, that's the idea of the tunnel.

The high horse brigade

Would that tunnel be to Scotland? What happens when Scotland get independence?

Tippex

Hurrache wrote: »

Not until negotiations are finished and a deal agreed or not, that's the idea of the tunnel.

yeah but anyone any idea the last time we got to this stage how long it took?
I'm still expecting the EU to announce it cannot be agreed in time and will require an extension to finalise the negotiations.

liamtech

I told ya wrote: »

I think the piece in The Telegraph today is significant - millstone around our neck, NI costs more that the EU, RofI a great place to live.......

I would view it as the DUP being warned off. From a quick look at a few news sites there is no sign of Arlene or Nigel or Sammy.

Could it be a boarder down the Irish See, so smile and look happy.

Or maybe Johnson/Cummings really have a cunning plan.

That article slating NI's position in the UK is not an accident nor is it's timing.

100% Cummings handiwork.

- Kermit.de.frog

I agree with this, a shot across the bow of the DUP

My opinion on said party is pretty harsh and if anyone takes offense i apologize in advance but

Moderate Unionism pragmatically values of NI's Place in the UK
The DUP - if their house was on fire, and only a 'Shinner' was available with a hose, they would watch said house burn down, uttering 'No Surrender' - nonsensical Extreme Unionists

The question now is:

Do the DUP retire back to their office and utter stern condemnations, while making sure not to derail the current situation
Or do they rally their forces, attempt to get the ERG on-board, and fight on, against BoJo this time

Given their track record im gonna go with the latter, but i welcome discussion - of course if they do the latter, and fight on, and they succeed in smashing the deal - they will be blamed - in Ireland, NI, the UK, and the EU!

john9876

Tea Shock wrote: »

There'd also be job losses in NI. Even though the sea border may be the lesser of the 2 evils

Looking at the issues of the border down the Irish sea, it means tariffs on NI goods going to/from Great Britain. But NI exports treble the amount to GB that it does to RoI and it exports more than 5.5 times to GB what it exports to the rest of the EU (2017 NISRA figures)

So new tariffs with GB means job losses!

With a lot of talk about a N-only referendum on where the border goes, are we sure that given a choice between a border in the Irish Sea and a border with the Republic, would, after the usual bull**** campaigning, go the way of an Irish Sea border being implemented. Even allowing for the fact that there are a couple of other factors at play apart from just export quantities.

Would the UK Government not refund the tariffs paid by NI businesses?

Utter Consternation

Tippex wrote: »

yeah but anyone any idea the last time we got to this stage how long it took?
I'm still expecting the EU to announce it cannot be agreed in time and will require an extension to finalise the negotiations.

Can the EU offer a delay to the UK? Would they want to do that and would the Uk accept?

reslfj

Quin_Dub wrote: »

...
Taxation is not an EU competency and they cannot ever ask a single country to unilaterally lower it's tax rate.

Will the EU at some point in the future address the issue of companies being able to pay taxes in one country for business carried out elsewhere?. Almost certainly , but that will impact more countries than just us and won't impact taxation occurring outside the EU.

You do not understand anything about power-politics and the size of the EU in this the real world, where adults rule.

The EU member states will not long or even medium term accept, that some countries and indeed geographically nearby 3. countries do not enforce a 'Level Playing Field' in taxation, environment, working condition etc.

The EU member states will surely not for long accept the LX or Irish model of allowing huge global companies to use EU rules and regulations to 'migrate' the profit from their business in other member states e.g. Germany, France or Sweden into Ireland or LX and pay all taxes there(at low or extremely low rates)

Small countries with good and sane governments will know when it's "An offer they can't refuse" and their game is up.

Lars

PS! All EU countries are small in these respects when alone

Hurrache

Tippex wrote: »

yeah but anyone any idea the last time we got to this stage how long it took?
I'm still expecting the EU to announce it cannot be agreed in time and will require an extension to finalise the negotiations.

I think it's a how long is a piece of string type question and to what extent is the existing withdrawal agreement being renegotiated/amended.

Tippex

Utter Consternation wrote: »

Can the EU offer a delay to the UK? Would they want to do that and would the Uk accept?

Of course, they can and it would totally change the narrative in so far as we can see a deal is possible but it is not possible in the time frame remaining so we are offering an extension to get this deal done. It puts Boris in a very difficult position does he insist on taking the UK out on the 31st? or does he perform a climb down and accept the extension?

fergiesfolly

A bit preemptive, but if a deal is agreed and the UK have an orderly exit from the EU, what happens next?

Kermit.de.frog

Still nothing from the DUP?

Hope they were not killed by a bus or anything...

Tippex

fergiesfolly wrote: »

A bit preemptive, but if a deal is agreed and the UK have an orderly exit from the EU, what happens next?

more negotiations the deal is only the start of it.

Seth Brundle

john9876 wrote: »

Would the UK Government not refund the tariffs paid by NI businesses?

The tariffs themselves won't kill businesses per se (although how long would businesses be waiting on the refunds?).
It is the reason for the tariffs that would be the business-killer!
The likes of my in-laws neighbour runs a florist. He will be out of business fairly soon after a no-deal exit because he can't sell flowers that were sitting in at a border crossing for several days on their way from the Netherlands.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That article slating NI's position in the UK is not an accident nor is it's timing.

100% Cummings handiwork.

As i stated when when I posted it, you only have to look at who wrote and where they're based to know it was Cummings.

Hurrache

fergiesfolly wrote: »

A bit preemptive, but if a deal is agreed and the UK have an orderly exit from the EU, what happens next?

Future relations negotiations.

Water John

Under Art 50 the UK must request the Ext. The EU then accept or reject and set the terms.
The reality at this point IWT that no matter how well the talks go, an Ext of some time will be needed.