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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Tippex

So my take is the Leo Varadkar has gone back and reported to the EU on what went on.
And said something along the lines of we made some progress and they are moving closer but realistically this is not going to be ane overnight agreement.

Then Michel Barnier comes out with "We are not close enough to get a deal by the 31st October so we are extending an extension to the UK in order to negotiate this deal fully"

cameramonkey

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was probably party politics. However, Leo had to be seen to engage positively. There's a blame game to be won.

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

fash

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Ouch - that is the sound of a number of pants in NI being pooped...

Hurrache

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

What mistake?

Professor Moriarty

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

No. The optics of him refusing to meet Johnson would have been terrible. Better to play along while Johnson twists himself into knots.

Kermit.de.frog

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

The British side have not said anything yet but Varadkar seemed content with what he heard.

That's all we can do for now.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The British side have not said anything yet but Varadkar seemed content with what he heard.

That's all we can do for now.

To be honest, we haven't a clue what is really going on. Even the political journos in Ire and GB are trying to guess what the joint statement today actually meant.

woohoo!!!

cameramonkey wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was probably party politics. However, Leo had to be seen to engage positively. There's a blame game to be won.

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

Maybe he took a risk but so what, he's not going to refuse to meet the British PM, who only yesterday had his great DUP endorsed proposal trashed in Brussels. Now I've no great faith that there's a breakthrough but Johnson knows that his next step is being forced to send that letter for an extension. And Johnson's biggest concern is keeping himself as PM after a GE.

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

No. those were no negotiations : it was two guys walking around the grounds of a hotel at lunchtime and having a chat.

Negotiations would be two teams of officials negotiating for many hours (or even days) around a large conference table.

I completely disagree.

There are different types of negotiations. You're describing detailed technical negotiations.

Big picture negotiations, whether business or politics, often take place between the principals face to face. They agree the big moves in principle then toss it back to the teams to make the detail work.

Same all over the world in my business experience.

Today was big picture negotiation the details of which will be worked out ASAP.

threeball

I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson brought a deal back at this stage as he knows it will be shot down in the HOC. Corbyn won't back it, Johnson will look good for trying to get the UK out, he won't have to ask for an extension and he'll win the election hands down.

Stacksofwacks

Varadkar would only be this pleased if Boris agreed to move on the backstop, where checks would be moved to the Irish sea. However he should demand an extension anyway so there is time to get this through the UK parliament and eliminate the possibility of no deal

Itssoeasy

fash wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Ouch - that is the sound of a number of pants in NI being pooped...

The safe cross code won't even help the DUP with the bus that may be coming.

liamtech

L1011 wrote: »

Nobody cares anymore. They became irrelevant the second Boris lost his majority.

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

ToBeFrank123

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Agreed. The DUP probably want a deal for some of their voters but with a veto. I don't think the ERG are bothered either way about a deal.

Johnson may need at least 50 votes from the other parties in the HoC if the ERG and DUP don't row in behind his deal. More if Tory remainers don't support it.

Surely Corbyn can't oppose a deal agreed on by Ireland, the UK and EU. It would be political suicide for Labour.

CarPark2

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

Junkyard Tom

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

The only surprise is that it's taken so long for the English press to focus in on the North as preventing Britain's journey to Xanadu.

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

He's essentially saying Johnson could genuinely be seeking a deal but it might also be a scam/ con job to get the Tory rebels off his back this weekend and to buy himself some more time.

Only Johnson / Cummings know what the real strategy is.

Either depending on which way the wind blows probably.

Beechwoodspark

Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

Imreoir2

cameramonkey wrote: »

For Ireland there was no advantage to the meeting today. It was a BJ side show to keep his own party off his back. BJ wanted it to look like he was making a deal or that things could progress, he was using Leo as a useful idiot. Leo obliged.

What does Ireland lose from this? Either Johnson moves his position or he dosen't. If he dosen't then we are no worse off than we were yeaterday, but at least the accusation of intransigence by our side looks all the more implausible.

Zubeneschamali

CarPark2 wrote: »

Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

He has to do something, or at least look as if he is doing something, so that when the election comes he can say he tried.

Sierra Oscar

Johnson needs an excuse to seek an extension. This gives him the opportunity to say to his supporters that an extension is needed as there is a real chance of a deal being clenched in the weeks ahead. Seeking an extension in any other circumstance would be a devastating humiliation. I would still be weary as to his endgame intentions.

Imreoir2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Throwing NI under the bus could be the niceist thing the Tories have ever done for NI.

threeball

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Agreed. The DUP probably want a deal for some of their voters but with a veto. I don't think the ERG are bothered either way about a deal.

Johnson may need at least 50 votes from the other parties in the HoC if the ERG and DUP don't row in behind his deal. More if Tory remainers don't support it.

Surely Corbyn can't oppose a deal agreed on by Ireland, the UK and EU. It would be political suicide for Labour.

Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

Imreoir2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I wonder if the ruse here is to get a deal that will obviously be unacceptable to parliament.
If I understand correctly, the Benn act only forces an extension if he fails to bring back a deal. If he brings back a deal that fails to pass parliament then they are out on 31st.
The risk here for the UK is that parliament is spooked into passing a deal worse than Mays.

I somehow doubt parliament will lack the opportunity to assert itself and pass a new law requiring an extension "right bloody now" in such a circumstance.

Strazdas

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

Ben Lowry of the Newsletter wonders on Prime Time if Johnson is going to shaft the DUP

liamtech

threeball wrote: »

Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

No i doubt Corbyn Could move against BoJo if

The EU Agree
The ERG Agree
Northern Ireland Agree (Whether or not the DUP do is another thing and this is where things are gonna get .. WEIRD..)
Dublin Agrees

For Corbyn to block a deal accepted by the above 4, it would be suicide - i think Corbyn missed his chance - the opposition for that Matter

ALL OF THIS ASSUMES A DEAL, AGREED BY THE ABOVE

Highly unlikely but we will know soon enough

threeball

Strazdas wrote: »

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

Ben Lowry of the Newsletter wonders on Prime Time if Johnson is going to shaft the DUP

I don't see how it harms him if he does. He certainly doesn't want them in his government if he gets elected PM next time. They're a plague and he'll not want them anywhere near him.

threeball

liamtech wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

No i doubt Corbyn Could move against BoJo if
The EU Agree

The ERG Agree

Northern Ireland Agree (Whether or not the DUP do is another thing and this is where things are gonna get .. WEIRD..)

Dublin Agrees

For Corbyn to block a deal accepted by the above 4, it would be suicide - i think Corbyn missed his chance - the opposition for that Matter

ALL OF THIS ASSUMES A DEAL, AGREED BY THE ABOVE

Highly unlikely but we will know soon enough

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

liamtech

CarPark2 wrote: »

Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

This entire situation is very hard to read

For everyone watching on TV

The View is on BBC 1 NI tonight at 10:35
Question Time is on far later on BBC NI but usual time of 10:35 on BBC 1 London

I honestly have no idea whats going on now

If Varadkar is correct then suddenly it looks like BJ might through NI under a bus, from a DUP point of view anyway
This could work to every other parties advantage depending on the next election - Unionists might see the DUP as either the original sell outs (for agreeing to BJs first offer) - or the last bastion of proper unionism
The ERG - no idea what they think, watching their feeds like a hawk
Lets be frank - we DONT KNOW what these 'movements' and or 'concessions' are

May we live in interesting times - interested to see what everyone else says

Dyr

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Joke of a comment but no surprise it was popular!
Hundreds of thousands could have died if the unionists and nationalists were forced into a United Ireland in 1923. It would have been all out civil war and far far more than the 3000 or more that died in the recent troubles. Eventually a 6 county solution would be imposed only after we'd finished slaughtering each other.

To call the Treaty a bad deal is foolish and atrocious revisionism. Thankfully we were led by coolheads like Collins at the time and not a fool like De Valera.

Cool heads mor dhea :rolleyes:. Collins and Liam lynch wanted to start a civil war in the north so they could unite the pro and anti-treaty forces against Loyalism.