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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

He's essentially saying Johnson could genuinely be seeking a deal but it might also be a scam/ con job to get the Tory rebels off his back this weekend and to buy himself some more time.

Only Johnson / Cummings know what the real strategy is.

I think Johnson is a glove puppet at this stage. Cummings is running the show.

devnull

Now maybe this should belong in conspiracy theories...

But is there any chance this is a ruse by the Tory party? If they claim they have a deal and it's not fully signed and delivered by the time he is supposed to send a letter, then Boris can argue that he doesn't need to send a letter because there is not going to be no deal and it just needs a few days.

Then perhaps he could back out at the last minute of which there is no time for anyone to do anything about it. Just when they're talking about getting round the law somehow and not wanting to say how, you have to be very suspicious of any move that they make.

LeinsterDub

devnull wrote: »

Now maybe this should belong in conspiracy theories...

But is there any chance this is a ruse by the Tory party? If they claim they have a deal and it's not fully signed and delivered by the time he is supposed to send a letter, then Boris can argue that he doesn't need to send a letter because there is not going to be no deal and it just needs a few days.

Then perhaps he could back out at the last minute of which there is no time for anyone to do anything about it. Just when they're talking about getting round the law somehow and not wanting to say how, you have to be very suspicious of any move that they make.

Any deal will need an extension. There simply isn't enough time to get all the parliaments etc to approve it

Kermit.de.frog

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

devnull

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Any deal will need an extension. There simply isn't enough time to get all the parliaments etc to approve it

That's my point.

Boris still is saying that do or die they are leaving on 31st October so the only way that can be is with No Deal, so that's why there's a conspiracy theory I've read in the few places.

The theory is that pretending there is a deal which delays the formal signing of it past the agreed date for asking for an extension and then backing out at the last moment is a vehicle to get around the Benn bill.

cameramonkey

Hurrache wrote: »

Laura K must have fallen out of favour, but here's the second best thing

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1182360788998279168?s=19

looks like Leo has been used as a pawn in BJ's political shenanigans, bet you he didn't even understand.

Kalyke

I think this is a typical Borris stunt. He has promised LV something that he has no intention of delivering. Will renege privately, the deal will collapse and a torrent of blame and abuse will descend on LV and Ireland in general.

Kermit.de.frog

Kalyke wrote: »

I think this is a typical Borris stunt. He has promised LV something that he has no intention of delivering. Will renege privately, the deal will collapse and a torrent of blame and abuse will descend on LV and Ireland in general.

There is no deal.

Consent and customs still to be resolved.

Varadkar said this after the meeting. He was not as positive as the media are making out.

Nor was the statement as positive as the media making out either.

Professor Moriarty

cameramonkey wrote: »

looks like Leo has been used as a pawn in BJ's political shenanigans, bet you he didn't even understand.

You mean that Johnson will renege on any offers he made to the taoiseach? Sure we all know that. He's a proven liar. Leo wast just being statesmanlike and friendly because that's what he should do in contrast to the lying egomaniac standing beside him.

ToBeFrank123

fash wrote: »

No we do not. We accepted a bad border deal 100 years ago- and thousands are dead because of it and it resulted in vast economic damage.

Joke of a comment but no surprise it was popular!
Hundreds of thousands could have died if the unionists and nationalists were forced into a United Ireland in 1923. It would have been all out civil war and far far more than the 3000 or more that died in the recent troubles. Eventually a 6 county solution would be imposed only after we'd finished slaughtering each other.

To call the Treaty a bad deal is foolish and atrocious revisionism. Thankfully we were led by coolheads like Collins at the time and not a fool like De Valera.

cameramonkey

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You mean that Johnson will renege on any offers he made to the taoiseach? Sure we all know that. He's a proven liar. Leo wast just being statesmanlike and friendly because that's what he should do in contrast to the lying egomaniac standing beside him.

For Ireland there was no advantage to the meeting today. It was a BJ side show to keep his own party off his back. BJ wanted it to look like he was making a deal or that things could progress, he was using Leo as a useful idiot. Leo obliged.

LeinsterDub

devnull wrote: »

That's my point.

Boris still is saying that do or die they are leaving on 31st October so the only way that can be is with No Deal, so that's why there's a conspiracy theory I've read in the few places that pretending there is a deal which delays the formal signing of it past the agreed date for asking for an extension and then backing out at the last moment is a vehicle to get around the Benn bill.

I get that but as I said it simply doesn't fly any deal pretend or not would need an extension the first thing the EU would say is great we've a deal just sign this X week extension so we can get this done and dusted and under the Benn act he has to agree

fash

Kalyke wrote: »

I think this is a typical Borris stunt. He has promised LV something that he has no intention of delivering. Will renege privately, the deal will collapse and a torrent of blame and abuse will descend on LV and Ireland in general.

Kinda hard for that to happen when Irish seemed so enthusiastic. Hard to say Ireland not flexible Ireland not moving, Ireland bullying, Ireland not really trying to get a deal etc, 10 minutes after Ireland has said negotiations are going great and we'll soon have a result.
After that, it gets hard for the UK not to engage and for the UK to use intransigence and blame as an excuse to go for no deal. This causes real problems for Johnson's "do or die by October 31"

GM228

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

Is it?

Was there negotiations and has the WA been re-opened?

There's a difference between discussion and negotiation.

Professor Moriarty

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Robert McGrath

Bambi wrote: »

To report the government line straight from an off the record briefing? People criticize the BBC journos for doing the same thing. While there's less kite flying and blaggarding with Connelly, he's not doing anything too dissimilar.

Nope. Sorry. Tony consistently writes articles and tweets with technical details as to why the latest proposals/rumours will work or not work. His book is a valuable educational tool on the cross border issues created by Brexit. To compare him to Laura “mood music” K is desperately unfair

Headshot

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

God I hope the DUP are screwed, it would be the only good thing the come out of Brexit

It would make me so happy

Professor Moriarty

cameramonkey wrote: »

For Ireland there was no advantage to the meeting today. It was a BJ side show to keep his own party off his back. BJ wanted it to look like he was making a deal or that things could progress, he was using Leo as a useful idiot. Leo obliged.

It was probably party politics. However, Leo had to be seen to engage positively. There's a blame game to be won.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

No. those were no negotiations : it was two guys walking around the grounds of a hotel at lunchtime and having a chat.

Negotiations would be two teams of officials negotiating for many hours (or even days) around a large conference table.

ToBeFrank123

Robert McGrath wrote: »

I just listened to it on your recommendation.

I think literally every sentence he utters contains a factual inaccuracy - not a difference of opinion, not something that’s demonstrably false. It’s remarkable. It’s almost a piece of art.

There isn't the remotest chance of Ireland leaving the EU so his basic premise is flawed.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

Is it?

Was there negotiations and has the WA been re-opened?

There's a difference between discussion and negotiation.

Yeah. Bilateral negotiations implies that there's a capability for decision making. By all means, Varadkar can recommend a negotiating position, but that has to fly with the rest of the EU27 and Barnier's terms of reference.

Tell me how

Marked difference in how our opposition parties behave in comparison to UK.
Plenty will question his motives but I'm glad to see a largely cohesive national position.

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1182336404229107712?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Looks a pretty horrid article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/northern-ireland-burden-rest-uk-cant-let-get-way-brexit/

On cue.

All choreographed to sell it to the Brexit base.

Water John

One can suspect from this MM was in the loop.
There was no downside for Ireland in today's meeting. Nobody cares if it went sour and the UK spun lies out of it.

MrMusician18

I wonder if the ruse here is to get a deal that will obviously be unacceptable to parliament.
If I understand correctly, the Benn act only forces an extension if he fails to bring back a deal. If he brings back a deal that fails to pass parliament then they are out on 31st.
The risk here for the UK is that parliament is spooked into passing a deal worse than Mays.

ToBeFrank123

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no deal.

Consent and customs still to be resolved.

Varadkar said this after the meeting. He was not as positive as the media are making out.

Nor was the statement as positive as the media making out either.

Sounds like they are as far away as ever. No chance of a deal before 31st October anyways. Johnson will request an extension but there doesn't seem to be much hope of a deal during the extension either.

Johnson wants an election but might be trapped by ftp act.

There is no way this will be resolved by 31st October. Onto the next cliff edge.

Kermit.de.frog

Denis Staunton of the IT suggesting NI could be part of both customs zones on the back of the discussions but EU will still require Irish sea checks (click for thread).

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1182379071717683201

[Deleted User]

Sounds more and more like NI is going to become a DMZ between Ireland(EU) & GB.
Nearest thing to a win win I think we're ever going to get, if it pisses off both NI tribes, then it must be good.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

Like others have said I don't think any of it is true, neither of those things happened.

woohoo!!!

If Varadkar gets burnt and BJ is lying and we'll know more tomorrow then he can say I tried my best at the 11th hour etc.

If on the other hand something is in the offing towards a deal, everyone knows that it'll have to spun in Westminster as Ireland blinking or something. But who cares once we secure what we want how it's spun.