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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The negotiations have are purely shame at this stage . Both sides offer compromise they know will be rejected in order to win the blame game

The EU has been avoiding playing the game for long enough now - they need movement, and if sticking in the boot creates movement - it's worth it.

Who even cares about optics anymore anyway? no matter what is done/said it can and will be twisted to suit/go against whatever narrative it needs to. And in 24 hours the frenzy will move on to the next nugget, and so on.

prawnsambo

spacecoyote wrote: »

If its a solution that's amenable broadly to both sides, then the DUP become an irrelevance surely

Assuming it offers a Brexit with a "deal" then theoretically they could get it through with a Conservative & enough Labour MPs to get it done, surely?

Lib Dem, SNP & DUP wouldn't be enough to stop it, if enough Con & Lab MPs are willing to vote for it.

I know its a big "if" around getting Labour MPs to vote for a Boris led Brexit though

Or you could get enough abstaining to make it happen anyway.

Stop moaning ffs

Weird. Sinn Fein also saying no. Thought they would have went for it

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1181861204450578432?s=21

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Another option might be a referendum every four years of the people of NI. Costly but worth it overall.

That's already in the current UK proposal and condemned as utter madness by everyone except the DUP. The last thing NI needs is a reason to pit Orange against Green every four years.

And besides, it is (apparently) undemocratic to ask the population to review their decision once a referendum has been held. 17.4 million say so ... :rolleyes:

Tacitus Kilgore

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Weird. Sinn Fein also saying no. Thought they would have went for it

Hardly being pragmatic?

Stop moaning ffs

Readings from twitter saying this is a very shrewd move from the EU. Cancels the undemocratic backstop nonsense and firmly shifts the blame away and shows EU have been flexible and been refused.

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Weird. Sinn Fein also saying no. Thought they would have went for it

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1181861204450578432?s=21

Not really. It would make a brexit deal more likely and a UI less likely.

Edit: Sinn Fein saying they don't like it, immediately makes it more palatable to the DUP and the Tories. NI politics is so confusing.

Stop moaning ffs

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not really. It would make a brexit deal more likely and a UI less likely.

Good point. Should always keep that in mind as their true motivation / destination in all this.

Can someone explain how it is the DUP don’t see how all their moves to date bring the border poll towards us at speed? They don’t seem to see it

listermint

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Weird. Sinn Fein also saying no. Thought they would have went for it

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1181861204450578432?s=21

Perhaps they want an electorate decision and not an assembly one

Which would be a sound position to take.

Daemonic

All this assumes the Assembly will be sitting to vote on this?
What happens if they can't resolve the problems for which it is currently suspended?

Stop moaning ffs

listermint wrote: »

Perhaps they want an electorate decision and not an assembly one

Which would be a sound position to take.

That’s a perfectly sensible idea. And you know dup would be dead set against it as they’d lose. Every time.

Charles Babbage

This Assembly thing is a dead end end, endless pointless debates on the EU would wreck the Assembly if it ever does get back.
There is an existing formula for NI referendums, let the Secretary for NI decide to call a referendum to end the backstop if he/she believes that there is a majority for it. Since 60% of people want the backstop the Secretary of State would reasonably never call such a referendum, and if a majority in the Assembly continued to want the Backstop then that would be good evidence that there wasn't much support for ending it.

GM228

Decision from the Inner House to come much earlier today - expected in the next 10 minutes....

Oral submission summary on the Outer House appeal here:-

https://www.scottishlawreports.org.uk/publications/exceptional-cases.html

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

Perhaps they want an electorate decision and not an assembly one

Which would be a sound position to take.

I have no skin in that particular game, but I would agree that any decision of this importance should be made by the electorate as individuals, not delegated to MPs or Assemblymen. We've seen the DUP appoint themselves as the voice of all NI, but know that they don't even represent all Unionists. Similarly SF claim more seats on the republican side than their Fenian support warrants.

Unless it is very precisely defined who can represent the unionist and republican communities - and, I would argue, those who choose not to identify as either - then anything other than a straightforward one-person-one-vote referendum is likely to cause more dispute than it resolves.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

The thing is, it may not matter what they say. This proposal could bring Labour MPs on board and also many (if not all) of the Tory rebels. The LibDems will oppose it, as will the SNP, but it could go through with opposition (ad hoc) support.

edit: and abstentions of course.

Labour MPs cannot possibly vote for this deal other than those who voted for May's deal. This one is worse than May's deal and in reality you should see less Labour votes for the deal than for May's deal. Remember only 5 Labour MPs voted for May's better deal.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour MPs cannot possibly vote for this deal other than those who voted for May's deal. This one is worse than May's deal and in reality you should see less Labour votes for the deal than for May's deal. Remember only 5 Labour MPs voted for May's better deal.

I doubt it would be Johnson's back of a fag packet proposal. A lot of what was in that was just May's deal with lots of Tipp-Ex applied. So I suspect it would be back to May's deal with this new backstoppish thing and all the level playing field stuff gone because it's not a UK-wide backstop any more.

johnnyskeleton

CelticRambler wrote: »

What happens if the non-tribal-aligned electorate has a majority over both unionist and republican communities? Sounds like the headbangers will have a permanent veto (unless or until a UI ref changes the status quo)

If that would happen:
1. The cross community tensions would be over;
2. The people of Northern Ireland could have rational politicians representing them;
3. Power sharing would end and a new Stormont of majority government or coalition forming would be brought in; and
4. The Irish government would respect that their decisions on what level of EU association is good for Northern Ireland is a representative view of NI, and not sectarian positioning

Stop moaning ffs

Like clockwork but surprised to see it from the times. Senior Downing Street source at it again

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1181816775236882432?s=21

GM228

I guess Johnson just didn't understand what Leo was saying:-

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1181867285075628032?s=19

Strazdas

I suspect by 2025 events will have long since overtaken anything happening in NI. Brexit and the English far right (along with their media pals) will be so discredited and in disgrace that we will be in a very different place politically.

AlmightyCushion

People saying this double majority vote is more or less as good as the backstop because the nationalist side will never vote to get rid of it have very, very short memories. A few years ago, we were saying Trump would never get the republican nomination, then we were saying he would never win the presidency, then we were saying the UK will never vote to leave the UK. Sometimes the things you think will never happen, actually happen.

darem93

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Like clockwork but surprised to see it from the times. Senior Downing Street source at it again

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1181816775236882432?s=21

Neale Richmod has been straight on the case calling it out for the rubbish that it is.

https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1181832850049515520

The British media really have gone to hell. Do the government really have them that much in their back pocket that they're printing blatant lies and reporting it as legitimate news?

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

I guess Johnson just didn't understand what Leo was saying:-

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1181867285075628032?s=19

Very possible - I don't think Johnson and Cummings are politically bright or astute at all. A couple of spoofers / bluffers who haven't a clue how to negotiate with international partners.

GM228

GM228 wrote: »

Decision from the Inner House to come much earlier today - expected in the next 10 minutes....

Oral submission summary on the Outer House appeal here:-

https://www.scottishlawreports.org.uk/publications/exceptional-cases.html

And here it is:-

The case will continue after the Benn Act deadline, they have delayed their ruling to see if Johnson will comply with the law!

Court will reconvene on the 21st and issue a ruling based on Johnson's actions.

They are holding a blank court order and a loaded pen to his head - and rightly so.

LuckyLloyd

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Weird. Sinn Fein also saying no. Thought they would have went for it

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1181861204450578432?s=21

They’re right though. The assembly is not guaranteed to sit as we have seen; and no one political body should hold the power to transform fundamental issues of citizenship, nationality and statehood.

Any solution around this should be based on a NI referendum.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1181872209381466112

Tories continue to split. At this rate the solution to Brexit is just to wait for everyone to defect to the Lib Dems

Christy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Like clockwork but surprised to see it from the times. Senior Downing Street source at it again

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1181816775236882432?s=21

Love all the comments just saying no he didn't. Downing street is lying to you and you know it.

prawnsambo

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

People saying this double majority vote is more or less as good as the backstop because the nationalist side will never vote to get rid of it have very, very short memories. A few years ago, we were saying Trump would never get the republican nomination, then we were saying he would never win the presidency, then we were saying the UK will never vote to leave the UK. Sometimes the things you think will never happen, actually happen.

All those were still close run things, even when they started out. Trump was an early front-runner in the GOP primaries. Brexit polling was also close

Sinn Fein/SDLP taking the same stance as the DUP would be a thing of such fantastical proportions, squadrons of pigs would take to the air and fly in perfect V-formation over Stormont.

Seth Brundle

Another company has set up a hub in Dublin as a consequence of Brexit.
This time it is an Investment company with assets worth £26billion.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/uk-funds-company-merian-hires-for-dublin-office-before-brexit-1.4045049

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1181876630173736962