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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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CelticRambler

briany wrote: »

The deal wouldn't have to be significantly different. It could be as simple as asking the EU if what was proposed in Dec 2017 was still an option, i.e. the NI-only backstop.

But that wasn't even a great deal - it was a May's-Unworkable-Red-Lines deal. There's no point bringing a fresh team into negotiations to work with old material. The EU has been completely open about their willingness to review any and all aspects of the WA if the UK drops some or all of its red lines. Johnson went in and drew over May's lines with extra-thick red marker; the next team needs to go in with a trolley-load of Tippex - and that means more than a two-night break in Brussels.

CelticRambler

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Is this the basis for Johnsons claims that he will obey the law but that the UK will leave at the end of October, ask for an extension but rule out any further negiotation during the extension period making an extension pointless?

That's what I've been thinking ...

Hurrache wrote: »

And there's this
[url]
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1181302738719793154?s=19[/url]

There's a great quote buried in the comments "I love it when the problems start in article 1(a)"

ancapailldorcha

liamtech wrote: »

Of course, its like another Toryograph - but unless the response from 10 Downing St is a total fabrication, then it seems they are looking for No Deal - but also expect ireland to throw a last roll of the dice

They expect this - but i dont see it happening? does anyone

Use the proper names of publications here please.

Hurrache

So this Stormont Lock they claim is not them trying to sneak a unionist veto in but we all know it is, is in fact a unionist veto according to this unionist.
[url]

https://twitter.com/DebShoes72/status/1181328675146551302?s=19[/url]

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

So this Stormont Lock they claim is not them trying to sneak a unionist veto in but we all know it is, is in fact a unionist veto according to this unionist.
[url]
https://twitter.com/DebShoes72/status/1181328675146551302?s=19[/url]

Heh "unionist" veto. More like DUP veto and I really think they're starting to get desperate now. People are asking questions and they're being found wanting. Still laughable that they think they can get a veto and everyone else doesnt like it the 1970's thinking really coming out of em now.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Discussing the Spectator chit chat on Newsnight, sounds like pure desperation stakes on the part of No 10.

I honestly think if Macron and that turn around and basically say "we have tried everything we can but the British Goverment are unwilling if not outright refusing to present a plan that meet's the needed legal criterea and have even re-neighed on previous commitments and we have little option but with a heavy heart to assume a no deal will occur on Oct 31st bar an extention request" come Friday we could see real movements against Boris and co. No Deal is still avoidable but there simply needs to be a serious push to flush Boris,the Troll Party (formerly the Tory Party), and that shítstirrer cummings down the toilet like the difficult turds they are at this point. Boris and co needs to go they're all only a liability to the UK so long as he's in no 10 and the rest have any grip on goverment and they need a caretaker PM either Ken Clarke or even John Bercow to guide the UK out of this mess before there's real risk to peoples lives.

10000maniacs

Just watching Newsnight now, and Downing Street is reduced to blackmailing EU members into opposing an extension on the 31st.
The ones who oppose an extension will be top of the queue in any future negotiations. LOL.
Just when you thought Johnson couldn't get any more pathetic.
I am not a big fan of Emily Thornberry but she was spot on when she called them a bunch of children.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching Newsnight now, and Downing Street is reduced to blackmailing EU members into opposing an extension on the 31st.
The ones who oppose an extension will be top of the queue in any future negotiations. LOL.
Just when you thought Johnson couldn't get any more pathetic.
I am not a big fan of Emily Thornberry but she was spot on when she called them a bunch of children.

What a pathetic country the UK has become. It's a shame because it has a lot to be proud of and its people are mostly decent. But it's a joke now.

Tell me how

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching Newsnight now, and Downing Street is reduced to blackmailing EU members into opposing an extension on the 31st.
The ones who oppose an extension will be top of the queue in any future negotiations. LOL.
Just when you thought Johnson couldn't get any more pathetic.
I am not a big fan of Emily Thornberry but she was spot on when she called them a bunch of children.

How long does Downing St think it is going to be before these countries are negotiating from outside the EU?

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What a pathetic country the UK has become. It's a shame because it has a lot to be proud of and its people are mostly decent. But it's a joke now.

If there's any silver lining out of this it might be that many over there might realise the toxic trap their country's fallen into over this and they might take some serious steps at reform if they can somehow manage to dig themselves out of the hole they've made for themselves before its too late.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

If there's any silver lining out of this it might be that many over there might realise the toxic trap their country's fallen into over this and they might take some serious steps at reform if they can somehow manage to dig themselves out of the hole they've made for themselves before its too late.

If they could stop doffing their hats to their betters, they might see the wood for the trees.

reslfj

10000maniacs wrote: »

.....
The ones who oppose an extension will be top of the queue in any future negotiations. LOL.
.....

Almost all agreements that ceases with an A50 'No Deal' Brexit will have to be negotiated and agreed with EU27 - not individual member states.

Trade, long haul lorries, planes, EURATOM,approval of UK made medicine in EU27 (with EMA), fishing rights, etc etc

Will the UK politicians ever learn? Individual member states talk with the EU commission and then the EU negotiates.

Lars

maebee

This "Battle Cry", war etc. from the UK is mad. Do they not realise that if they exit on Oct 31st, or whenever they exist, they still have to negotiate with their "enemy", the EU . I don't like being triumphalist but it's very obvious who holds all the cards now.

Kermit.de.frog

Looks like we are dealing with what can only be described as verging on a maniacal regime at this point.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1181334406751035393

10000maniacs

reslfj wrote: »

Almost all agreements that ceases with an A50 'No Deal' Brexit will have to be negotiated and agreed with EU27 - not individual member states.

Trade, long haul lorries, planes, EURATOM,approval of UK made medicine in EU27 (with EMA), fishing rights, etc etc

Will the UK politicians ever learn? Individual member states talk with the EU commission and then the EU negotiates.

Lars

I think what Downing Street was getting at was, if Spain supports an extension, maybe we will get our oranges from Brazil instead. Likewise Olives from Tunisia instead of Italy, Red Bull style drinks from Argentina instead of Austria. etc.

beggars_bush

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think what Downing Street was getting at was, if Spain supports an extension, maybe we will get our oranges from Brazil instead. Likewise Olives from Tunisia instead of Italy, Red Bull style drinks from Argentina instead of Austria. etc.

As if Downing Street think they can stop importers and suppliers buying stuff from specific countries

The UK isn't north korea.
Then again...

10000maniacs

beggars_bush wrote: »

As if Downing Street think they can stop importers and suppliers buying stuff from specific countries

The UK isn't north korea.
Then again...

Try telling that to the Irish cheese and butter producers who are probably going to be squeezed out of the North American market by excruciating tariffs.
The USA is a better example than North Korea.
But Trump and Johnsons strategies are doomed to failure in the long term.

beggars_bush

10000maniacs wrote: »

Try telling that to the Irish cheese and butter producers who are probably going to be squeezed out of the North American market by excruciating tariffs.
The USA is a better example than North Korea.
But Trump and Johnsons strategies are doomed to failure in the long term.

The Irish produce is usually already in a high value product section of most supermarkets over there.
I know, was in plenty of them the last few weeks.

So the people buying the stuff probably won't be hit too badly by the price increase.

As with most Trump policies, it hits the average person the hardest in the pocket

Tippex

I wonder how long after brexit the british public start complaining about the effects of them leaving. this is going to run for years and years. When will they realise they are screwed?

Capt'n Midnight

How will the UK government reward EU governments ?
It can't be a trade deal , maybe it will be lots of immigration ?

IIRC the previous bribe/sweetener for us was to pay a few hundred million for border infrastructure. Compared to the £9Bn a year they've been spending on NI subvention it's nothing. And it's nothing we want.

Nearly 7 years later they are still trying to cherry pick
(not counting the 6 months planning the speech)

23 January 2013

David Cameron has said the British people must "have their say" on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election.

...
France and Germany both warned the UK could not "cherry pick" EU membership.

eire4

beggars_bush wrote: »

The Irish produce is usually already in a high value product section of most supermarkets over there.
I know, was in plenty of them the last few weeks.

So the people buying the stuff probably won't be hit too badly by the price increase.

As with most Trump policies, it hits the average person the hardest in the pocket

That is true to an extent about Kerrygold being priced for the upper end of the market in most supermarkets but its not the full story. Kerrygold butter right now is the number 2 selling butter in the US. As well as being in most supermarkets Kerrygold butter and cheese is also sold in wholesale stores in bulk sizes for cheaper prices so while the tarriffs if they come into operation on October 18th won't wipe Kerrygold out in the US they will hurt.
Then there are the many Irish creams on sale in the US. There is a whole section in the stores for all the Irish creams they sell. Even Kerrygold have their own version in the US. They will get hurt badly if the tarriffs go into effect.

fash

liamtech wrote: »

Hurrache wrote: »

It's The Spectator, a mouthpiece for conservative propaganda.

Of course, its like another Toryograph - but unless the response from 10 Downing St is a total fabrication, then it seems they are looking for No Deal - but also expect ireland to throw a last roll of the dice

They expect this - but i dont see it happening? does anyone

Interesting thread here on downing Street "speaking with 2 voices" :
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1181153444532502528
It suits Johnson to have contradictory messages sent out.

Note this also makes it very difficult to respond to for foreign countries etc. Do you respond to leaks and rumours?

woohoo!!!

The only reason that an extension will be granted is because it is so clear that Johnson wants no deal. So the EU may calculate one last shot for the anyone but Johnson brigade. No great faith but 1 last short extension will a clear message pass a WA or no deal.

dePeatrick

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The only reason that an extension will be granted is because it is so clear that Johnson wants no deal. So the EU may calculate one last shot for the anyone but Johnson brigade. No great faith but 1 last short extension will a clear message pass a WA or no deal.

Extension followed by election, Who is going to win that is anyone's guess, Farage and Johnson may do a deal so it may well be them against a Lab/Lib Dem cross party alliance...Brexit, the gift that just keeps on giving

prunudo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like we are dealing with what can only be described as verging on a maniacal regime at this point.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1181334406751035393

They either a, really don't get the EU at all and that individual deals can't be done or b, these reports are aimed at the home audience so they appear like the hard men and are in control.

dePeatrick

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like we are dealing with what can only be described as verging on a maniacal regime at this point.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1181334406751035393

Johnson will do his damnedest to sabotage the functioning of the EU

Theresa May

We will crush the EU

Not a lot has changed then...

Enzokk

I think the only big way EU countries can be influenced post Brexit by some sweetheart deal from the UK is immigration, as mentioned before, but the same irony this source in No.10 mentions, the countries that would be willing to stop the extension are the ones people in the UK probably don't want immigration from. Talk about ironies.

The rest of it is typical party over country rubbish. It is about marginalizing the Brexit Party in the next election. Even before he lost his majority Johnson needed an election and he knew without Brexit there would be less chance of coming back to No.10. So they are going all out for Brexit to try and get the best chance to win a majority to stay in power in the main.

They don't care about the voters who voted to leave, never have and never will.

lawred2

dePeatrick wrote: »

Theresa May

Not a lot has changed then...

She never actually said "we will crush the EU" did she?

How did I miss that?

Torsevt

Johnson can change his tune after the election

For now he wants to hoover up all the support for the Tories and get the DUP out of the way

threeball

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49961301

£50bn overspend in the UK budget predicted next year at a time when the fiscal advisory are asking for tax increases. They'll be back in recession by January at this rate

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

She never actually said "we will crush the EU" did she?

How did I miss that?

She never said so in quite those words. But, yeah, that was the gist of it.

The "crush" language comes from the Times front-page headline over a report of a speech she gave in January 2017 (the "Lancaster House Speech"). Most of the speech was devoted to setting out her "Plan for Britain" - a statement of the negotiating priorities of the UK government in the (then, still to commence) Brexit talks.

But she finished with a rather ill-advised rant about why it would be a bad idea for the EU to seek to impose a "punitive deal" on the UK. That would be "an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe". It would "not be the act of a friend". "Britain would not – indeed we could not – accept such an approach." (It was in this section of her speech that she came up with the fatal soundbite that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain".)

The consequences for Europe, she asserted, would be disastrous; "It would mean new barriers to trade with one of the biggest economies in the world. It would jeopardise investments in Britain by EU companies worth more than half a trillion pounds. It would mean a loss of access for European firms to the financial services of the City of London. It would risk exports from the EU to Britain worth around £290 billion every year. And it would disrupt the sophisticated and integrated supply chains upon which many EU companies rely." She continued in this vein at some length. As you can imagine, this delusional bombast went down like a rat sandwich with the EU-27.

But it was well-received by the pro-Brexit press in the UK, which presumably was the intention. The speech had been leaked a couple of days in advance so they could polish their praises for May and her steel and resolution, and the press duly obliged. The Mail ran with "STEEL OF THE NEW IRON LADY", adding that "she put Cameron's feeble negotiations to shame". The Express had "DEAL OR NO DEAL WE WILL LEAVE EU" and the Times gave us "May to EU: give us fair deal or you'll be crushed". And it's the "crush" language that people remember as encapsulating the tone of the speech.