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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Capt'n Midnight

Scotland is preparing for the next election.

SNP to demand indyref2 in return for support of Labour government
But it will be supply and confidence rather than coalition.

Ruth Davidson unlikely to seek re-election
Scottish Tory MPs are an endangered species.

Kermit.de.frog

Hard to see Scotland remaining in the UK much longer.

They are essentially being taken out of the EU by England. If Scots feel the same about EU as Irish do I just can't see them accepting it in the short to medium term.

The UK is a complete mess of contradictions now.

MrMusician18

Headshot wrote: »

I wasn't.

This is what being part of something collectivity means, we go beyond the call to support members and have their back.

If EU throw Ireland under the bus it would be the end of the EU as all the small countries (especially eastern Europeans) would start asking "will you have my back if so Russia starts invading" or in Spains case rejecting Catalan independence

Italy and Greece were thrown under the bus in the migrant and debt crises respectively.

The idea that union solidarity is both unquestionable and unshakable is a myth that's developed here in the last three years. Solidarity here is cheap, if it were the Balkans facing an aggressive Russia, do you think all the EU 27 would be rushing to provide military assistance? Do people think Ireland would send troops?

Forty Seven

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I dont see the Scots going for independence when push comes to shove. There are too many Unionists in Scotland, and Unionism is entrenched in the Scottish psyche.

200,000 at that independence march yesterday and Tories have thrown in the towel in Scotland completely. It’s a certainty at this stage.

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

lawred2

Forty Seven wrote: »

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Well Brexit against their will will have given a lot of them plenty justification where none might have previously existed.

Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving for the Independence campaign.

Forty Seven

Water John wrote: »

Porogue can really be challenged again as, the PM has said, this Parliament is dead. What's porogue for?

To allow the queens speech. Doubt this will be challenged, it's standard practice to end a session. The other was challenged on the length of it. It was unprecedented and if this normal procedure is challenged this time around we will be on extremely shaky grounds democratically. Very, very, civil war type shaky.

CelticRambler

Forty Seven wrote: »

No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Doesn't the first flow directly from the second? :pac:

The English Nationalist isolationism that is Brexit being forced on Scotland is a damn good reason for wanting independence. Plenty of examples across Europe of it all working out for the better, starting with Ireland in 1922 and including countries like the Czech Republic and Slovenia.

Water John

Ah, why did the Irish want to leave the Union??? Wouldn't we too have been better off under the Queen's guardianship?

CelticRambler

Forty Seven wrote: »

if this normal procedure is challenged this time around we will be on extremely shaky grounds democratically. Very, very, civil war type shaky.

Can you give one good reason why the Queen should set out her government's agenda for a new session when her Prime Minister has said Parliament is dead and called on the opposition to trigger an election?

ilovesmybrick

Forty Seven wrote: »

No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Change English in that sentence to Europe and you have the Brexit vote. Don't assume that economic and political pragmatism (as it did in 2014) holds precedence over an emotive reaction.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Daily Express has helpfully put up an image of who the biggest loser will be in the EU for it's readers in it's latest pro Brexit article

https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/secondary/2094755.webp?r=1570307084999

The main takeaway is that this is not a zero sum game.
Everyone looses.

Express Link https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1175293/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-no-deal-election-tory-amber-rudd

Belgian docs with the original data - how come the Brexiteers can't come up with similar detailed analysis of how great things will be ?
https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20study%20main%20takeaways%20from%20Flanders.pdf
https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf
Figure 5b shows we lose nearly 6% but our annual growth is 6% so

fash

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Headshot wrote: »

I wasn't.

This is what being part of something collectivity means, we go beyond the call to support members and have their back.

If EU throw Ireland under the bus it would be the end of the EU as all the small countries (especially eastern Europeans) would start asking "will you have my back if so Russia starts invading" or in Spains case rejecting Catalan independence

Italy and Greece were thrown under the bus in the migrant and debt crises respectively.

The idea that union solidarity is both unquestionable and unshakable is a myth that's developed here in the last three years. Solidarity here is cheap, if it were the Balkans facing an aggressive Russia, do you think all the EU 27 would be rushing to provide military assistance? Do people think Ireland would send troops?

dude! Answered already- EU has no competence in relation to migration and very limited competence in relation to fiscal matters. These are primarily normal state issues - especially the migration

fash

lawred2 wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Well Brexit against their will have given a lot of them plenty justification where none might have previously existed.

Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving for the Independence campaign.

Indeed: they should take back control from the unelected bureaucrats. They hold all the cards and the English need them more than they need the English. Plus why send £X million/week in oil/gas through when they could spend it on the NHS etc. This stuff writes itself....

briany

fash wrote: »

Indeed: they should take back control from the unelected bureaucrats. They hold all the cards and the English need them more than they need the English. Plus why send £X million/week in oil/gas through when they could spend it on the NHS etc. This stuff writes itself....

The House of Lords is a room full of unelected old men. And women.

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Italy and Greece were thrown under the bus in the migrant and debt crises respectively.

The idea that union solidarity is both unquestionable and unshakable is a myth that's developed here in the last three years. Solidarity here is cheap, if it were the Balkans facing an aggressive Russia, do you think all the EU 27 would be rushing to provide military assistance? Do people think Ireland would send troops?

Your at least consistent in your anti EU bias.

Amazing how Germany ... The often touted 'owner of the eu' has accepted hundreds of thousands of refugees'

I mean considering your line of thought the owners of the EU wouldn't do that and would just push off responsibilities to other 'lesser' countries.

No ?

Forty Seven

CelticRambler wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

if this normal procedure is challenged this time around we will be on extremely shaky grounds democratically. Very, very, civil war type shaky.

Can you give one good reason why the Queen should set out her government's agenda for a new session when her Prime Minister has said Parliament is dead and called on the opposition to trigger an election?

The queen will do as she is told. Cavaliers v roundheads set the precedent.

listermint

Forty Seven wrote: »

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Westminster treats Scotland as nothing more than a county council.

You can't see why Scottish people would want out. Other than a historical hatred of the English.

This has to be a joke ?

Forty Seven

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Change English in that sentence to Europe and you have the Brexit vote. Don't assume that economic and political pragmatism (as it did in 2014) holds precedence over an emotive reaction.

I know. Hence my incredulity at everyone on here singing the praises of one while shouting shame at the other.

lawred2

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know. Hence my incredulity at everyone on here singing the praises of one while shouting shame at the other.

They are not even remotely comparable.

Seeking self determination and governance where none such exists is not the same as seeking a mythical freedom from a ruler that only exists in tabloid pages and in the minds of a few wildly misinformed useful fools.

volchitsa

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know. Hence my incredulity at everyone on here singing the praises of one while shouting shame at the other.

The Scottish weren't asked if they wanted to join the Union in the first place though, were they? That's just one very significant difference.

CelticRambler

Forty Seven wrote: »

The queen will do as she is told. Cavaliers v roundheads set the precedent.

In case you missed it, precedents count for nothing any more ... But I was asking you if you could come up with one good reason why the Queen should set out a legislative agenda that has a 99.9% chance of being scrapped by the end of the month.

fash

briany wrote: »

The House of Lords is a room full of unelected old men. And women.

Plus an unelected sovereign,an unelected PM and a massively distorting FPTP system...

Jamiekelly

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know. Hence my incredulity at everyone on here singing the praises of one while shouting shame at the other.

In order to take you seriously I would have to ignore what has been going on in the UK for the last 3 years. The English specifically have voted to essentially crash the currency of the UK, isolate its nearest neighbours and allies, cripple their credit rating and throw the country into a child like tantrum yet Scotland shouldn't be questioning their membership of the UK? Now is the best possible time to break away from the union before it's too late.

The difference between the UK and the EU is night and day at this point. The EU have tried every possible diplomatic approach to Brexit while the UK has spit in the face of the EU and decided that diplomacy doesn't matter when it comes to the welfare of their countries economy and reputation. This is not a like for like comparison. It is apples and oranges.

Forty Seven

listermint wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

Westminster treats Scotland as nothing more than a county council.

You can't see why Scottish people would want out. Other than a historical hatred of the English.

This has to be a joke ?

No joke. This country cannot afford SNP policies as it stands, never mind after independence. The oil is no longer what it was, Ireland is already being used as a bridge between America and Europe so no corporate benefits, that leaves us with whisky and tourism. Hardly an economy as an island with a hostile border to the south.

trellheim

The UK is part of Europe. It cannot change that fact. Its striking to me that out of 28 very very different nations the UK is the only one that has this bee in its bonnet about taking back "control" ( well all do of course to a greater or lesser nature but somehow the show stays on the road even though they all sign up to that level playing field ).

On a not unrelated note did anyone look into the level playing field side of things - the UK only got that lovely WA because of the commitment to the level playing field - it hasnt' got much press but apparently HMG have dropped the commitment so its real "have cake and eat it" stuff

Stop moaning ffs

It seems Barniers suggestion that there will be no further extension will be granted has taken root.

Petition to revoke A50 in case of no extension

‘Revoke article 50 if the EU does not grant an extension past 31 October’

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/275680

listermint

Forty Seven wrote: »

No joke. This country cannot afford SNP policies as it stands, never mind after independence. The oil is no longer what it was, Ireland is already being used as a bridge between America and Europe so no corporate benefits, that leaves us with whisky and tourism. Hardly an economy as an island with a hostile border to the south.

That wasn't my question.

You inferred it was hatred was why they wanted out.

Which goes against all of the factual reasons.

So I ask again. Was that a joke or were you being serious.

Forty Seven

lawred2 wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

I know. Hence my incredulity at everyone on here singing the praises of one while shouting shame at the other.

They are not even remotely comparable.

Seeking self determination and governance where none such exists is not the same as seeking a mythical freedom from a ruler that only exists in tabloid pages and in the minds of a few wildly misinformed useful fools.

The only difference I see is your own applied terminology. Both are equally misguided examples of uninformed, emotion driven politics.

Kermit.de.frog

Macron saying today that UK has until the end of the week to fundamentally change it's proposals according to the Guardian.

briany

Going the full revocation route is a suicide mission. I cannot see the HoC agreeing to it.

If an extension is denied, then the only route left is to cobble together a last minute deal. This is where they may start really regretting voting down May's deal 3 times. They'll already have dismissed Johnson's proposals, and those weren't even acceptable to the EU, so it doesn't matter. Could the opposition send a special envoy of some sort to Brussels for last minute emergency talks? Well, Corbyn has been before, and he did table an alternative deal which never even got off the ground. He could try that again, and hope that it has more legs considering the drastically different circumstances of that or no-deal.