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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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JJJackal

CPTM wrote: »

One risky thing I've noticed with the banks is that they're accepting contract wages as normal wages now. For example a basic contract in IT could be 350 per day which is 84k in total per year (with zero benefits) and the banks are applying a 3.5 rule to that if you've been in the role for more than a year. Their website/mortgage hotline says 2 years but in reality an exception can be made. This is personal experience. Myself and Mrs CPTM are both on higher contracts in the IT world and the amount of money their calculator is willing to lend to us is completely irresponsible in my opinion, saying as neither of us are permanent and can be let go on a whim.

You have a personal responsibility too - if you think you cant pay it off you should not borrow it. Also have you been mortgage approved? The calculator and actual approval is different

It is unfair to blame the banks for not lending enough on one hand and then lending too much on the other. The borrower too has responsibility

pearcider

lleti wrote: »

It's quite a high salary I'd say considering most people I saw were young enough, early 30's and had young kids too so childcare costs would be high too.

They all seem to have SUVs too, 151-171 range.

And with a mortgage of 390k, it's still a monthy payment of 1500 at the lowest rate. Insane figure tbh. It all sounds reasonable now because of rents but that's going to change one way or the other.

In debt up to their eyeballs due to artificial low interest rates. Just like the end of every credit cycle in history. Ordinary savers and pension funds are already paying for this madness with negative interest rates forcing the prudent investor into ever riskier assets such as the stock market and property. Anybody with half a brain knows this madness won’t last long.

CPTM

JJJackal wrote: »

You have a personal responsibility too - if you think you cant pay it off you should not borrow it. Also have you been mortgage approved? The calculator and actual approval is different

It is unfair to blame the banks for not lending enough on one hand and then lending too much on the other. The borrower too has responsibility

Yes - we're pretty cautious economically. We were approved to borrow up to 615k which is mental. We're drawing down little over half of it soon hopefully.

[Deleted User]

If people have children they will find it a lot harder to get a high mortgage, i know this personally.

I am on a pretty decent wage and i am shocked at how little the bank are willing to lend despite having a clean credit rating and record, not missing a mortgage payment etc., changing houses now and the bank want to offer me less than what i have a mortgage for now. I have just under 2x my salary and they want to reduce it to 1.5, the kids are a huge part of the calculation.

So anyone looking to move with a family wont get the same as a young couple. I cant make sense of it as most couples within a year or 2 of getting houses start a family.

OwlsZat

http://insideairbnb.com/dublin/

Didn't see this mentioned. Pretty obvious those that have made a fortune out of the housing crisis through short term holiday letting continue to do so.

scarepanda

We're approved as first time buyers for the 3.5 times salary with kids. Husband has a good salary but we're a single income family.

[Deleted User]

scarepanda wrote: »

We're approved as first time buyers for the 3.5 times salary with kids. Husband has a good salary but we're a single income family.

Thats mad, i was knocked down 35k per child straight up

scarepanda

Deleted User wrote:

Thats mad, i was knocked down 35k per child straight up

Ya tbh I was very surprised that we got approved for the full amount. I'm not complaining though.

OEP

voluntary wrote: »

That would be nice, if only real.
The average household income in Ireland is around 45k and the highest average family income is in Malahide @ 78k

https://www.thejournal.ie/cso-malahide-4690048-Jun2019/

Those average figures thrown out for things are not much use really. For example, pensioners are included in that.

CPTM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thats mad, i was knocked down 35k per child straight up

That is interesting, speaking as someone with their first baby on the way. Did you shop around, is it something you encountered with more than one bank?

Cyrus

CPTM wrote: »

That is interesting, speaking as someone with their first baby on the way. Did you shop around, is it something you encountered with more than one bank?

It makes sense

If you have child care costs they have to be factored into your ability to repay

tastyt

DellyBelly wrote: »

I agree. In fact that's probably the norm in Dublin actually maybe even on the low side. I'd say the average earnings for a couple in the city would 125k-130k

Well you'd be talking nonsense so

beauf

Average incomes.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/great-divide-in-household-income-across-the-country-is-laid-bare-38239841.html

I'd say its a safe assumption that income increases have completely fallen out of touch with property and rental increases over the past 30 yrs.

smurgen

beauf wrote: »

Average incomes.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/great-divide-in-household-income-across-the-country-is-laid-bare-38239841.html

I'd say its a safe assumption that income increases have completely fallen out of touch with property and rental increases over the past 30 yrs.

Scope for a massive cut in housing price when incomes begin to fall again.

Eric Cartman

CPTM wrote: »

One risky thing I've noticed with the banks is that they're accepting contract wages as normal wages now. For example a basic contract in IT could be 350 per day which is 84k in total per year (with zero benefits) and the banks are applying a 3.5 rule to that if you've been in the role for more than a year. Their website/mortgage hotline says 2 years but in reality an exception can be made. This is personal experience. Myself and Mrs CPTM are both on higher contracts in the IT world and the amount of money their calculator is willing to lend to us is completely irresponsible in my opinion, saying as neither of us are permanent and can be let go on a whim.

i would imagine if your contract was as a print journalist or personal trainer it would be different. finding work as an IT contractor isn't the hardest and isnt likely to get harder any time soon.

lleti

Thoughts on the Help to buy scheme only for new homes?

Surely I, not having enough for a new home deserve help to buy just as much as someone able to afford a new home?

[Deleted User]

CPTM wrote: »

That is interesting, speaking as someone with their first baby on the way. Did you shop around, is it something you encountered with more than one bank?

i spoke with AIB and Bank of ireland, both claim the same calc has to be used for the central bank

[Deleted User]

smurgen wrote: »

Scope for a massive cut in housing price when incomes begin to fall again.

doubt it, anyone who is doing renovations at the moment know how much the internal fit out of a house costs both in labour and materials. By your assumption if this gets hit so does the tradespeople which then triggers further consequences down to the shop keeper. As i said before people need to be very careful what they wish for. Ireland has progressed because everyone benefits (i know i will help about Johnny and Mary struggling to pay bills) down to the tradespeople, labourer, general operatives. Its peoples expectation that they can live in an A1 rated house in the most sought after areas and wanting everything now is what causes the chaos.

Ask people who bought in the 70s and 80s, people who walked to work to save on fuel, people who paid for their TV, washing machine over a few years. No it wasnt as rosey and pleasant as people try to make out. Yes they bought a house on a 20 year mortgage on 1 income but also had far less, struggled longer and had a far inferior house. Just look at the money being pumped into houses that go on the market after old people die.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

doubt it, anyone who is doing renovations at the moment know how much the internal fit out of a house costs both in labour and materials. By your assumption if this gets hit so does the tradespeople which then triggers further consequences down to the shop keeper. As i said before people need to be very careful what they wish for. Ireland has progressed because everyone benefits (i know i will help about Johnny and Mary struggling to pay bills) down to the tradespeople, labourer, general operatives. Its peoples expectation that they can live in an A1 rated house in the most sought after areas and wanting everything now is what causes the chaos.

Ask people who bought in the 70s and 80s, people who walked to work to save on fuel, people who paid for their TV, washing machine over a few years. No it wasnt as rosey and pleasant as people try to make out. Yes they bought a house on a 20 year mortgage on 1 income but also had far less, struggled longer and had a far inferior house. Just look at the money being pumped into houses that go on the market after old people die.

It cheaper to live in an A-rated house, by a mile heating bills of 200 verses bills of 2000 that driving a lot of it, outside very desirable areas.

beauf

mariaalice wrote: »

It cheaper to live in an A-rated house, by a mile heating bills of 200 verses bills of 2000 that driving a lot of it, outside very desirable areas.

Have to add the cost of upgrading to an A rated house to your annual bill. Be that mortgage, loan whatever.

Cyrus

mariaalice wrote: »

It cheaper to live in an A-rated house, by a mile heating bills of 200 verses bills of 2000 that driving a lot of it, outside very desirable areas.

we have a 2100 sq feet a3 rate house, average elec bills are 100 per month for a family of 4 (no other heating bills)

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

we have a 2100 sq feet a3 rate house, average elec bills are 100 per month for a family of 4 (no other heating bills)

Mine are not even that expensive, that over 1000k a year. A-rated is different that A3 rated and its a big consideration when buying new over second hand except in very sought after areas.

Cyrus

mariaalice wrote: »

Mine are not even that expensive, that over 1000k a year. A-rated is different that A3 rated and its a big consideration when buying new over second hand except in very sought after areas.

do you have gas or any other bill? and what size is the house? Whats your annial costs

A3 is a rated

its just A3 not A1 or A2.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

do you have gas or any other bill? and what size is the house? Whats your annial costs

A3 is a rated its just A3 not A1 or A2.

My understanding of it is its the difference between having a passive house verse an almost passive house.

[Deleted User]

Table 2: Indicative annual CO2
emissions and running costs for different rating bands for
space and water heating
Rating
2 Bed Apartment 3 Bed Semi-D 4 Bed Semi-D Detached House Large house
Area
(m2
300

Cost (€)
A1 0.4 €140 0.5 €190 0.8 €280 1.1 €400 1.6 €600
A2 0.8 €280 1.1 €380 1.6 €560 2.2 €800 3.2 €1,100
A3 1 €350 1.4 €470 2 €700 2.7 €900 4.1 €1,400
B1 1.3 €440 1.7 €590 2.5 €900 3.4 €1,200 5 €1,800
B2 1.6 €570 2.2 €800 3.3 €1,100 4.3 €1,500 6.5 €2,300
B3 2 €700 2.7 €900 4 €1,400 5.3 €1,900 8 €2,80.

http://www.seai.ie/publications/Your-Guide-to-Building-Energy-Rating.pdf

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

do you have gas or any other bill? and what size is the house? Whats your annial costs

A3 is a rated its just A3 not A1 or A2.

thanks for the table, so i take your house is A1 and passive effectively.

Be interested to the answers to the qns,

My electricity bills are obviously covering all other electrical use in the house also. And it was a new build 2 yeas ago.

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

thanks for the table, so i take your house is A1 and passive effectively.

Be interested to the answers to the qns,

My electricity bills are obviously covering all other electrical use in the house also. And it was a new build 2 yeas ago.

Not a passive house its a small bunglow and only two of us both at work most of the time pluse and I dont know if this is a facto,r but I don't like suffocating heating in a house. its gas heating. My last gas bill was for 25.96 euros.

Cyrus

mariaalice wrote: »

Not a passive house its a small bunglow and only two of us both at work most of the time pluse and I dont know if this is a facto,r but I don't like suffocating heating in a house. its gas heating.

Ok so your house is what A1 ?

Its how big in sq/m?

and whats your combined annual electricity and gas costs?

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

Ok so your house is what A1 ?

Its how big in sq/m?

and whats your combined annual electricity and gas costs?

I honestly dont know the BER its about 900sq not completely sure not sure of he yearly totals its not a good comparison as its only two of us and we dont have the heating on in the two spare bedrooms its a well-insulated house though.

Cyrus

mariaalice wrote: »

I honestly dont know the BER its about 900sq not completely sure not sure of he yearly totals its not a good comparison as its only two of us and we dont have the heating on in the two spare bedrooms its a well-insulated house though.

right

your initial post responding to mine doesnt make much sense then