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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Stop moaning ffs

Barclay just openly lied to Marrs face. He said the majority of Nationalists in NI support Johnson’s deal.

Went completely unchallenged.

otnomart

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

But we must not restrict their travel. Those people who travel to Europe will see economies growing year after year while theirs be stuck in duldrums.

I am wondering: will Ireland become a safe heaven for British pensioners ?

This article states this "Also invalidated by a crash out would be the S1 reciprocal healthcare scheme used by an estimated 180,000 pensioners who paid their taxes in the UK but decided to retire elsewhere in the bloc, apart from Ireland where existing arrangements would continue."

What are the existing arrangements ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

CelticRambler

20silkcut wrote: »

Boris is parroting this line that EU membership is costing a billion pounds per day or is it per week I’m not sure.

As opposed to how much per week to keep the lights on in NI ... ?

[Deleted User]

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Barclay just openly lied to Marrs face. He said the majority of Nationalists in NI support Johnson’s deal.

Went completely unchallenged.

Outrageous they can come out with such nonsense and not be checked on it

threeball

otnomart wrote: »

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

But we must not restrict their travel. Those people who travel to Europe will see economies growing year after year while theirs be stuck in duldrums.

I am wondering: will Ireland become a safe heaven for British pensioners ?

This article states this "Also invalidated by a crash out would be the S1 reciprocal healthcare scheme used by an estimated 180,000 pensioners who paid their taxes in the UK but decided to retire elsewhere in the bloc, apart from Ireland where existing arrangements would continue."

What are the existing arrangements ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

Not just British pensioners but the British in general. I think you could see the inconceivable 50yrs ago of British people migrating here for work to escape a floundering economy.

Hurrache

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Barclay just openly lied to Marrs face. He said the majority of Nationalists in NI support Johnson’s deal.

Went completely unchallenged.

Others on twitter are saying the opposite, that he said the other parties there want to remain in the EU?

otnomart

threeball wrote: »

Not just British pensioners but the British in general. I think you could see the inconceivable 50yrs ago of British people migrating here for work to escape a floundering economy.

Scary thought about pressure on housing, healthcare, education system in Ireland !

Leroy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Barclay just openly lied to Marrs face. He said the majority of Nationalists in NI support Johnson’s deal.

Went completely unchallenged.

Really? That is unbelievable. Unbelievable that he would say it and unbelievable that Marr didn't pull him up on it.

Even a simple "the majority in NI voted to remain" would have put it up to him, not not even something difficult to have at your fingertips

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

Really? That is unbelievable. Unbelievable that he would say it and unbelievable that Marr didn't pull him up on it.

Even a simple "the majority in NI voted to remain" would have put it up to him, not not even something difficult to have at your fingertips

I’ll try Find the clip. They upload them after the show usually

Call me Al

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t understand why the DUP haven’t been thrown under the bus yet?

Surely a NI-only backstop is the obvious solution here.

It is. But the way I see it there's no upside for Boris Johnson domestically with this approach right now.
He's trying to woo back the Brexit vote the Tories have lost. He is playing the "loyal defender of the union" card against a hostile party. Foreigners to boot. But he knows the numbers in parliament won't deliver anything right now, so he has nothing to lose in hanging on to the DUP. If anything they enhance the Brexityness of the Tories right now.
He will be looking towards a GE, and a Tory leader (him) trying to form a government, to get him out of the hole he's in. And he may still need propping up and those 10 or so seats in Ulster may be the ones called on again.

Plus, ultimately NI and the border are the only really trump card the uk gov't have in any FTA negotiations with the EU.

threeball

Call me Al wrote: »

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t understand why the DUP haven’t been thrown under the bus yet?

Surely a NI-only backstop is the obvious solution here.

Plus, ultimately NI and the border are the only really trump card the uk gov't have in any FTA negotiations with the EU.

The border cannot be used in negocications as it's position must be resolved before FTA talks can begin and even to get a WA

Stop moaning ffs

Ireland and the EU specifically locked in the backstop in order to prevent any british government using it on such a way in any future negotiations. It’s there to prevent them using it as a bargaining chip.

Tea Shock

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t understand why the DUP haven’t been thrown under the bus yet?

Surely a NI-only backstop is the obvious solution here.

The Tory’s know there’s a strong chance they will need the DUP to prop them up again following the upcoming election

Stop moaning ffs

Tea Shock wrote: »

The Tory’s know there’s a strong chance they will need the DUP to prop them up again following the upcoming election

Hoping against hope this meeting with Leo and Boris will be the undoing of that and just put the border in the sea already

Seth Brundle

Stephen Barclay describes the backstop as a unicorn...
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1180782963635580928?s=19

threeball

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Stephen Barclay describes the backstop as a unicorn...
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1180782963635580928?s=19

A unicorn designed by the British which they are now trying to pass off as an Irish and EU idea. They're never called out on this.

Tea Shock

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Stephen Barclay describes the backstop as a unicorn...
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1180782963635580928?s=19

He seems to have suggested that a NI only backstop was rejected by the HOC

That was never voted upon!

[Deleted User]

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

UK could potentially ignore reality and bugger their people for a long time if they become more authoritarian, hell Russia did it for 70years promising people true socialism will come soon.

But we must not restrict their travel. Those people who travel to Europe will see economies growing year after year while theirs be stuck in duldrums. Someone posted graphic of UK economy flatlining since Brexit while everyone else continues to grow.

Be careful when looking for economic indicators showing "growth" if the UK does restrict immigration, then growth will slow simply due to the fact that the population is not increasing. A country can show "healthy growth" because if inward migration, but the per capita growth is zero.

Much of the growth in EU (& other) countries is simply down to the increase in head count. These extra people (or Consumers) generate growth from nothing.

Call me Al

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ireland and the EU specifically locked in the backstop in order to prevent any british government using it on such a way in any future negotiations. It’s there to prevent them using it as a bargaining chip.

I know and understand that...

But you still have Steve Barclay on TV this morning pushing back on it.. 3 years later.

[Deleted User]

otnomart wrote: »

I am wondering: will Ireland become a safe heaven for British pensioners ?

This article states this "Also invalidated by a crash out would be the S1 reciprocal healthcare scheme used by an estimated 180,000 pensioners who paid their taxes in the UK but decided to retire elsewhere in the bloc, apart from Ireland where existing arrangements would continue."

What are the existing arrangements ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...no-deal-brexit

The common travel area precedes the EEC/EU and was never rescinded.

CelticRambler

Call me Al wrote: »

But you still have Steve Barclay on TV this morning pushing back on it.. 3 years later.

The relevant point there is: he's in London on British TV this morning, because no-one in the EU was going to waste their weekend talking to him.

A Dub in Glasgo

oooft! Maybe his seat is at risk, would that not be the icing on the cake

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1180721558500909056

Torsevt

No deal brexit was never going to happen
There was always going to be a delay and an election

There is no planning or contingency for no deal whatsoever

Its not about what BJ says its what he does

ancapailldorcha

One-liners deleted.

trellheim

I'm back after hols but have been following along.

it would be easy for Boris to pivot to NI-Only backstop from here but how to get it through parliament . Labour and all the rest will likely vote against . He has not yet won a single commons vote as PM has he ?

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

I'm back after hols but have been following along.

it would be easy for Boris to pivot to NI-Only backstop from here but how to get it through parliament . Labour and all the rest will likely vote against . He has not yet won a single commons vote as PM has he ?

NI only backstop would sail through. He isn’t going to do it though unless he sees sense last minute before the EU summit.

trellheim

NI only backstop would sail through.

yeesh where you gonna get a majority ... One Nation tory rebels might but since yer man whatshisface Philip Lee went off to the Lib Dems Boris does not have a majority ... Also the Headbangers in the ERG would not vote for it so the only debate is if you could get any of the opposition parties to abstain , and then if so would that stand to Corbyn if he did so

(vote counting in other words )

CelticRambler

Someone commented earlier on this thread that there's a suspicious smugness about all these Conservatives saying Boris will comply with the law, and we will leave on the 31st.

I'm beginning to feel the same way. Despite their proven talent for believing in alternate realities, they all demonstrate this unjustifiable assurance so I've been wondering: Johnson goes to the summit on the 17th, comes back with nothing because he doesn't try very hard, writes a letter "Dear Brussels, please give me an extension" on the 19th, and then ... ... ... what? Even if he's promised not to frustrate efforts to have the EU grant an extension, he can't be put under any obligation to sincerely pursue one. Back home, he can spin any further discussions with the EU as "meaningful" to stave off a VoNC while all the time sitting on his hands in Brussels.

The only way around this that I can see, would be for the Rebel Alliance to time a VoNC for just before he gets HMQ to prorogue Parliament again and get their caretaker cabinet in place before Halloween.

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

yeesh where you gonna get a majority ... One Nation tory rebels might but since yer man whatshisface Philip Lee went off to the Lib Dems Boris does not have a majority ... Also the Headbangers in the ERG would not vote for it so the only debate is if you could get any of the opposition parties to abstain , and then if so would that stand to Corbyn if he did so

(vote counting in other words )

I’m looking at it the other way. He’s running down the clock to throw the WA with an NI only backstop on the table and hoping HoC will go for it as it’s betger than no deal.
Idealistic on my part maybe, in hoping that he’ll be sensible

trellheim

He is proroguing tomorrow right ? I just cant see it with a lame-duck parliament and an almost definite GE either way , so why have a QS at all ? Better to wait till after GE and then do QS with a clear mandate (assuming one is won, of course ) it screams shenanigans