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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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GM228

Water John wrote: »

Crossings with NI are 300.

There are 208 formal crossings (at least that is the agreed number between Ireland and the UK) and probably just as many informal.

Hurrache

Ffs, first question after Greer was some bloke using "Eire" in relation to it buying back Northern Ireland. Ffs, we never sold it in the first place.

boggerman1

Shelga wrote: »

Bonnie Greer is amazing on this programme!

A white English man in the audience disagreed with her when she said it’s hard to be a foreigner in the UK right now. My god, how she restrained her anger at such a moronic comment from someone who has never, and will never, have to deal with xenophobia and racism because he probably never sets foot outside Merseyside, I do not know.

About being foreign- “you’re not, I am, so I know what I’m talking about”- damn right.

Quite agree.bonnie greer was absolutely brilliant and told and English audience that will not listen not to f**k with Ireland from an American point of view.

Cookie_Monster

Hurrache wrote: »

Ffs, first question after Greer was some bloke using "Eire" in relation to it buying back Northern Ireland. Ffs, we never sold it in the first place.

Maybe Trump would be interested in buying it given the Danes won't sell him Greenland?

blackcard

boggerman1 wrote: »

Quite agree.bonnie greer was absolutely brilliant and told and English audience that will not listen not to f**k with Ireland from an American point of view.

The danger is that the UK will blame Ireland for Brexit not happening

maebee

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

When are we going to get another round of votes in parliament, they were good craic.

I agree that they are good craic but it's beyond craic now. It's pretty serious.

Hurrache

Now it's from The Sun, but they're running with the story that the UK did indeed follow through on the cash bribe to Ireland, which I think was first mooted by Javid a while back.

[url]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1179866822511865857?s=19[/url]

They're also claiming this nonsene, as well as some EU countries blaming Dublin for the deadlock.

Some senior EU figures are secretly pressing Ireland to accept Mr Johnson’s money offer as they are growing tired of how Irish politics is log-jamming Brexit.

One senior Eastern European diplomat said: “It is time this all comes to a conclusion. Dublin have a lot of leverage now, they should use it and name their price.”

Varta

blackcard wrote: »

The danger is that the UK will blame Ireland for Brexit not happening

What's dangerous about that?

blackcard

Varta wrote: »

What's dangerous about that?

A lot of Irish people work in the UK. A lot of tourists come from the UK to here. They buy a lot of our goods. The UK need a scapegoat

NotToScale

Varta wrote: »

What's dangerous about that?

I'd strongly underline that it's a very particular segment of English (and Northern Irish) politics that would blame Ireland for Brexit failing. It absolutely is not all of the UK and plenty of others would be delighted that we stood up for ourselves and by proxy for their rights too.

The same people who would blame Ireland for Brexit not happening are generally the same segment of British politics who always disliked us anyway.

You can't please everyone all the time (see: Theresa May) and we certainly won't have lost any friends by standing our ground on this and talking sense.

Sometimes your best friend is also the one who tells you to go home when you're drunk, ranting and picking fights with bouncers.

liamtech

Worth Pointing out that those of us that watched the View - are about 35 minutes behind on question time

But i will say that the American Lady is absolutely fighting in our corner

Sorry to sound like a broken record but - Miriam O Callaghan - hope your watching! Thats how its done

GM228

Hurrache wrote: »

They're also claiming this nonsene, as well as some EU countries blaming Dublin for the deadlock.

More BS from The Sun (no surprise), remember what Tusk said earlier:-

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1179762497466830848?s=19

"We stand fully behind Ireland"

As President of the EC it's pretty safe to say that "we" = Europe.

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

Now it's from The Sun, but they're running with the story that the UK did indeed follow through on the cash bribe to Ireland, which I think was first mooted by Javid a while back.

[url]
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1179866822511865857?s=19[/url]

They're also claiming this nonsene, as well as some EU countries blaming Dublin for the deadlock.

Also, this story. It's sh1t stirring of epic proportions.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1179867328164630544

joeysoap

The American panelist on QT understands the Irish perspective better than the majority of English people.

maebee

Hurrache wrote: »

Now it's from The Sun, but they're running with the story that the UK did indeed follow through on the cash bribe to Ireland, which I think was first mooted by Javid a while back.

[url]
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1179866822511865857?s=19[/url]

They're also claiming this nonsene, as well as some EU countries blaming Dublin for the deadlock.

Johnson pleads with EU - what a shift from "We hold all the cards, great deals. Bla Bla

[Deleted User]

joeysoap wrote: »

The American panelist on QT understands the Irish perspective better than the majority of English people.

Yep.
She’s also just after outlining the fact that N Ireland voted remain and how the DUP’s Brexit stance is not representative.
Probably the first time I’ve heard it said on British tv

Mr.Nice Guy

Hurrache wrote: »

Now it's from The Sun, but they're running with the story that the UK did indeed follow through on the cash bribe to Ireland, which I think was first mooted by Javid a while back.

Yeah I think Javid was pushing that idea during the leadership campaign. This has his fingerprints all over it.

They really are tone deaf when it comes to us.

Robert McGrath

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Yeah I think Javid was pushing that idea during the leadership campaign. This has his fingerprints all over it.

They really are tone deaf when it comes to us.

Jesus. They still think it’s all about money. They really don’t get this whole EU thing at all, do they?

Water John

The LB MP, who worked with Mo Mowlam, outlined what it was really about, identity.
The notion of of it being up for discussion every 4 years , with the default being on the DUP side, is nuts.

Infini

Water John wrote: »

The LB MP, who worked with Mo Mowlam, outlined what it was really about, identity.
The notion of of it being up for discussion every 4 years , with the default being on the DUP side, is nuts.

If any agreement allows the DUP to uniaterally reject anything it will simply be rejected. They're unfit for any power and will be denied such thanks to their track record of putting flegs before peoples wellbeing.

Strazdas

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Jesus. They still think it’s all about money. They really don’t get this whole EU thing at all, do they?

Also, Ireland can't do a bilateral deal with the UK, not even if Johnson offered us £100bn. It's a UK-EU negotiation and the deal must follow SM rules.

Kermit.de.frog

It's interesting how dignified and competent Varadkar and Coveney look compared to any politician in that junta running the UK at the moment.

The difference is fairly stark particularly in the grasp of their briefs when they are on camera.

Westernyelp

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

It's interesting how dignified and competent Varadkar and Coveney look compared to any politician in that junta running the UK at the moment.

I usually can't stand Varadkar. But on Brexit he is performing very well. He and Coveney are a Stark counterpoint to Johnson, Gove and Raab et al

omerin

Why aren't the people from Northern Ireland out on the streets if this proposal is so bad for them. If the British only see the DUP as the voice of NI, that's because they are the sole party in the hoc representing Ni (I'm aware of the other sole rep). SF are leaving themselves and NI down by sitting on their hands. They need to be there now more then ever to highlight real issues in the hoc and on Uk TV. Already some labour MPs in leave seats are siding with the deal and if it goes to a vote in the hoc it may even pass, SF need to be there and vote against it. Let them cross their fingers when swearing the oath or let them reprise the empty promise that was made many decades ago

Kermit.de.frog

omerin wrote: »

Why aren't the people from Northern Ireland out on the streets if this proposal is so bad for them

This is the same issue across the whole western world.

Less and less protest on important issues because the newer generations have their eyeballs screwed to their smartphones all the time.

Rain Ascending

As is probably well understood here, the most likely outcome by the end of October is for the UK government to request an extension and the UK heading towards a November election. And yes, given the level of on-going constitution-busting of shenanigans, there are other very possible outcomes such as a no-deal Brexit ... but let's leave those other possibilities aside for the moment and focus on a general election after an A50 extension.

Given where the polls are at the moment, predicting the outcome of any general election is difficult. Most predictions I've seen give the Conservatives either a small majority (those polls with the Tories on about 35%) or a small minority (those getting the Tories closer to 30%). However that's not a static situation and there are lots of factors that will kick into play:

With an A50 extension, can Boris successfully pivot from "Do or Die" messaging (which could then be toxic) to a "Parliament v the People" message, to stave off a Brexit Party led by an odious, but politically canny Farage?
Will Labour voters ignore their party's fuzzy Brexit policy and look beyond Brexit to issues like the NHS and education? This would squeeze the Lib Dems who are focusing on Brexit. Ironically, Johnson's magic-money-tree policies and messaging could help Labour here, by distracting from the Brexit argument?
Which side (Remain/People's Vote v. hard-Brexit supporting parties) has the better GOTV (get-out-the-vote) machine? Much of the differences in the polling results from different polling companies lies not how they sample the electorate, but in their assumptions as to who exactly will vote on the day.
And most importantly in a first-past-the-post system, where are the votes, constituency by constituency?

For the last point, see this excellent twitter thread explaining graphically how to think about constituency variations, by ranking them how they voted in the 2016 referendum:
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1179382200812343296
It simplifies things a lot as compared to reality, but as a result has a lot of clarity as to the core factors involved.

Finally, to state the bleeding obvious, the outcome of that election will determine what happens before the next crunch point ... Brexit exit date number four, possibly as soon as 31 January 2019, when we get to do this horror movie all over again. Anybody got a snappy title for Brexit IV?

briany

Boris Johnson's speech to the DUP at the Tory conference was just sad.

"Northern Ireland is a part of the UK, and let it remain so forever! Let it it remain so forever!"

(from audience)

"No surrender, Boris!"

Christ almighty. The days of a neutral stance toward Northern Ireland are long gone. This is going to get considerably worse before it gets better.

emo72

Really getting fed up with UK interference in Ireland. Gave them a wide berth, but it's all kicking off now. Have Northern Ireland if you want but fer fecks sake don't ruin the rest of the country lads. But no. Everything's ruined. I'm becoming a leftie. Yis bastids.

fash

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Did I read it here or someone where else about the number of border crossing between the republic and Northern Ireland is more than the number on the eastern border of the EU ? I couldn’t believe it when I read that. It just shows if I hard border or any kind of infrastructure on the border happens just how hard it will be to police it.

it is nearly 3 times the number of crossings between northern Finland and southern Romania - and also roughly 3 to 1 versus United States to Canada if I remember correctly. So approx 100 crossings in both cases versus 250-300

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's interesting how dignified and competent Varadkar and Coveney look compared to any politician in that junta running the UK at the moment.

The difference is fairly stark particularly in the grasp of their briefs when they are on camera.

had a friend from Europe remark on the difference in professionalism and quality of Varadkar and Johnson at their joint speech when I sent her the clip.