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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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gozunda

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well on the other hand some coastal conditions probably verified the orange level warning, it's up to the presenters and news media to clarify the application of warnings to counties, as everyone on this forum seems to understand that they won't always verify throughout a given county.

The centre of old Lorenzo has finally made contact with land around Donegal Bay, and once it moves inland, I think it will take 2-3 hours for the gradient to slacken then a rapid improving trend will set in for the west. The east will see a slight increase in wind speeds as what's left of the cyclone approaches from the northwest, and there will be a spell of moderate rain. The storm, such as it is for the east, will likely just dissipate rapidly around the early afternoon hours.

Wind has ramped up here again over the last 2 hours with some very strong gusts atm. Unfortunately my Anemometer is down.

North Cork limerick border

DOCARCH

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Longford, Westmeath, Galway, Mayo, Roscommon and Clare

Strong westerly winds persist for a time this morning, mean speeds 50 to 65 km/hr with higher gusts.

M.T. Cranium

Well on the other hand some coastal conditions probably verified the orange level warning, it's up to the presenters and news media to clarify the application of warnings to counties, as everyone on this forum seems to understand that they won't always verify throughout a given county.

The centre of old Lorenzo has finally made contact with land around Donegal Bay, and once it moves inland, I think it will take 2-3 hours for the gradient to slacken then a rapid improving trend will set in for the west. The east will see a slight increase in wind speeds as what's left of the cyclone approaches from the northwest, and there will be a spell of moderate rain. The storm, such as it is for the east, will likely just dissipate rapidly around the early afternoon hours.

DOCARCH

Mace Head gusting 58kts/107kmh in 0600 report. Mean of 45kts/83kmh.

That mean speed technically satisfies requirement for red warning.

Oscar Bravo

4am

Mace head gusting 57 knots (107 km/h)

Graces7

Something just changed out here; increasingly savage gale. Dwelling shaking. Has it changed direction? Gusting dangerously.

west mayo

Something just hit the roof or came apart!

Just realised that this is Lorenzo passing nearer? Certainly far worse than before; things flying out there and the dwelling shaking. Like Callum. Ah well.. " this too shall pass."

Graces7

No easing here. Still savage gusts and loud deluges on the windows. wish I had the means to measure windspeed.. just loud and louder and very loud! VERY loud now..

west mayo offshore island

Graces7

kerryjack wrote: »

fair play guys ye called it fairly well all week I pitty any old people living alone and listening to rte the life would be frightened out of them.

Young person! I am nearly 80 and there is no way any weather or forecast would " frighten the life out of me" and the same applies to all the old folk I know! We have all experienced and weathered weather you can only guess at! We prepare for these events

And I hope that you are following through with your concerns and calling in on your old neighbours? Bless you for that!

Awful lot of nimbyism here. It was only ever going to be a west coast event. And be sure it is! I am west coast and we are being thrashed and battered by Lorenzo.

Have been all the night long. Still have power and my dish is still intact.. but that could change any minute.

m17

Co galway 03/10/19

An Ri rua

kerryjack wrote: »

fair play guys ye called it fairly well all week I pitty any old people living alone and listening to rte the life would be frightened out of them.

While it's true that the media got carried away, it was a major news story 2 days ago, sufficient to cause the National Coordination Group to convene in the NECC.
It's a very anomalous weather event which could have had devastating effect across Ireland.
We did dodge a bullet, for all of the knocking of Joanna on the Chat thread.
Preparation and forecasting are everything, lest we have a Michael Fish moment and end up with dead citizens.
I also thought Eoghan Murphy was fudging it re school closures but, the more I thought it through, the NCG have done their job. They are not fortune tellers.

Gaoth Laidir

Just 7 hours to go to RTE's Lorenzo Special...

George, here's the SMAP surface wind chart for around 19.30 this evening. The brown shows 50+ knot winds, not quite high enough to be called "fierce", but maybe there is time for it to change.

wassie

BlackandGreen wrote: »

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

No - due to physics. A hurricane is another name for a tropical cyclone. As the name suggests, these storms form only in the tropical latitudes and dissipates when they move over waters significantly below 26.5 °C. The colder waters mean less energy for the storm system, causing it to to lose its tropical characteristics. That being said, it still can pack a punch!

Gonzo

very quiet day here in Meath today apart from breezy conditions this morning, mostly light rain on and off through the day, a few heavier bursts earlier in the evening.

Daffodil.d

Slight breeze so far this evening in Waterford. Lots of rain earlier. Nothing out of the ordinary. Generally we escape the drama. I want to ask a question though. How often 'in laymans terms' does a hurricane head up in our direction. What are the stats? We're more in tune to the technical analysis now but are these events becoming more commonplace?

M.T. Cranium

Didn't extratropical Wilma (2005) have some minor effect on the weather in Ireland? It was at one point a cat-5 hurricane. I remember how it was progged to hit as quite a strong storm by the GFS six days in advance then that got downgraded. But I think some part of it still hit Ireland eventually.

Most cat-5 that I can recall went inland somewhere in North America. Dorian had some indirect aftereffects on weather systems that reached Ireland, not really a good example though.

Oscar Bravo

11pm

Mace Head gusting 52 knots
Belmullet Gusting 51 knots
Shannon Airport gusting 42 knots

All other stations fairly quite.

John mac

BlackandGreen wrote: »

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

BlackandGreen

Question: Has there ever been a category 5 hurricane that made its way up here before? (i know its no longer a category 5)

uck51js9zml2yt

Wind has picked up in North Kerry tonight.
Gotten cold as well.

Danno

Lorenzo has split in to two lows by the looks of the latest satellite imagery.

Andrew00

Extreme gusts of wind now in Galway.

redbuck

Starting to get gusty here in Killala now.

Danno

tom1ie wrote: »

Are/when are we expecting the worst winds to hit the Dublin area?

Probably the next storm TBH. Dublin most likely not see anything more than a standard wet and windy autumn night.

Oscar Bravo

10pm

Mace head gusting 51 knots
Belmullet gusting 45 knots

squonk

Wind finally picking up here appreciably in Ennis in the last few minutes. We had heavy ra8n earlier but that’s fine through now. Seems the wind comes in waves. It’s gibe quieter just now.

[Deleted User]

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Guys I'm confused. Everyone is joking about how weak the storm is. But is it not due to hit full strength after midnight?
I do think RT performance in particular is ridiculous but I still think there's plenty to come from this storm.
The only thing that annoys me is its a relatively standard bad winter storm for the west coast but to justify the nonsense RTwill focus on any small bit of damage done tomorrow and hype it up. They are in to deep now. No going back. Storm Special, the prime time guy deployed.

between 1 and 3am in Galway anyway suppossed to be the strongest. But pretty strong speeds until 7/8am.

CeeCeeBloom

Dublin this evening.

Not a huge breeze here by any stretch.

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

How is your hat still on considering your roof is gone 🤔?

It's a complicated story. Where to begin...

Kristopherus

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A sudden pick up in winds here in Castlebar.

And a good dash of rain with it !!!