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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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irishgeo

The first of the rain is now showing up on the met.ie radar. Probably hitting west Galway in the next hour.

Supercell

Nothing burger here, glad to be honest.

Wicklow mountains sheltering wind flow in southern Dublin area currently I'd imagine.
Airport taf pretty much says thats all folks (Dublin), maybe some more gusts but nothing major was the wind veers more westerly.
Currently 8 knots at Dublin airport:

EIDW 031730Z 15008KT 110V170 9999 -DZ FEW005 SCT018 BKN024 14/13 Q0999 TEMPO 4000 BKN007

TAF EIDW 031700Z 0318/0418 21015G25KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
BECMG 0318/0321 24020G30KT
TEMPO 0318/0319 5000 -RA BKN012
BECMG 0322/0401 23015G27KT
TEMPO 0401/0408 5000 RA BKN008
BECMG 0409/0411 31012KT
PROB30
TEMPO 0409/0415 BKN008
BECMG 0415/0418 VRB03KT

signostic

Knock Taf issued @ 1700z (1800BST)

TAF: EIKN 031700Z 0318/0418 21018G32KT 9999 BKN012 BECMG 0321/0324 23023G38KT TEMPO 0321/0404 3000 SHRA BKN005 SCT018CB BECMG 0400/0403 26023G39KT TEMPO 0404/0406 3000 -RA BR BKN005 BECMG 0407/0409 29020G30KT BECMG 0409/0411 32017G28KT BECMG 0412/0414 32010KT BECMG 0416/0418 VRB03KT

TTLF

Rain is starting to Pick up now

-S.Dublin

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing not as strong winds since the earlier run. Much slower on this run to make it to the coast , probably around 06.00 or 07.00 so shedding most of its energy over the sea . That is a fair decrease in wind speeds since this morning, now looking like gusting 100 to 110 on coasts from Sligo to Clare with some stronger gusts on exposed headlands. Not showing the strong winds penetrating to far inland.

Mortelaro

Supercell wrote: »

Nothing burger here, glad to be honest.

Wicklow mountains sheltering wind flow in southern Dublin area currently I'd imagine.
Airport taf pretty much says thats all folks (Dublin), maybe some more gusts but nothing major was the wind veers more westerly.
Currently 8 knots at Dublin airport:

EIDW 031730Z 15008KT 110V170 9999 -DZ FEW005 SCT018 BKN024 14/13 Q0999 TEMPO 4000 BKN007

TAF EIDW 031700Z 0318/0418 21015G25KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
BECMG 0318/0321 24020G30KT
TEMPO 0318/0319 5000 -RA BKN012
BECMG 0322/0401 23015G27KT
TEMPO 0401/0408 5000 RA BKN008
BECMG 0409/0411 31012KT
PROB30
TEMPO 0409/0415 BKN008
BECMG 0415/0418 VRB03KT

Here though south of the Dublin mountains, its 20 gusting 30kmh SW with nothing much to hinder the wind
So it's not that.

I've had stronger sea breezes in summer!

Gaoth Laidir

That sensor tower Dún Laoghaire harbour is in an excellent location on the top of the sea wall to get an open exposure from all directions. I'd have no reason to doubt the 52 knots.

That was some Föhn in southwest Dublin/NE Kildare today. It made a difference of 2 or 3 degrees and caused a fair bit of nice sunshine in Tallaght most of the day.

Can't stanf George Lee on the Six-One news. Resorted to warning people about the danger of chainsaws in the end as there's not much else to hype about. Awful. I can't believe that they're having a special program live on RTE 1 from 7 am tomorrow. I think they might end up talking about Brexit...

It seems the centre has followed more like the Icon, which a couple of days ago was showing a more northerly path. The German FAX forecast charts were showing it taking a northerly path and fizzling out, which won't be right. Somewhere between the two looks right.

Reati

Mortelaro wrote: »

Here though south of the Dublin mountains, its 20 gusting 30kmh SW with nothing much to hinder the wind
So it's not that.

I've had stronger sea breezes in summer!

Same here. Well south of Dublin, by the coast and it peaked at 60kph and eased off since.

Meteorite58

Now set to track slowly on to the coast and across Ireland filling rapidly as it goes.

igCorcaigh

Will it even come inland then?
Or just fizzle out at sea and go north?

And icon was slated a bit earlier..

Meteorite58

Rainfall now set to be at its highest towards the far NW because of the systems slow progress .

igCorcaigh

Posted too soon.
Thanks meteor.

Meteorite58

ICON looks the strongest , the american models really kill the winds but the ARPEGE looks about the average I would reckon.

Jimbob1977

Relatively calm outside Limerick City. 7.30pm

Gaoth Laidir

2016

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Relatively calm outside Limerick City. 7.30pm

I just cycled from Limerick City into East Clare and agree. A major deviation from the models wind predictions for the area so far today.

Meteorite58

Pressure and gust readings so far.

Currently 10 min avg 23 km/h WSW. Highest gust 70.1 km/h at 07.13 outside Tralee near the coast.

Light Blue avg wind, dark blue gusts

AJoUWXL.png?1

RoisinD

2016 wrote: »

I just cycled from Limerick City into East Clare and agree. A major deviation from the models wind predictions for the area so far today.

Well lucky for you in East Clare were you in NW Clare, near the coast, you would last all of 2 seconds on your bike and would more than likely gone sailing over the cliffs.

Mortelaro

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Can't stanf George Lee on the Six-One news. Resorted to warning people about the danger of chainsaws in the end as there's not much else to hype about. Awful. I can't believe that they're having a special program live on RTE 1 from 7 am tomorrow. I think they might end up talking about Brexit...

George only has one setting in his mood ometer and that's crisis
Frown cruise control doesn't work, the pedal there is stuck also

To be fair to him,he was at the same crack about the economy a decade before it crashed, everything was doom and gloom
So I guess we may watch out,the country will be flattened by a hurricane before 2030 probably
Make preparation now ...
The programme tomorrow morning is silly

m17

03/10/19 19.47

Meteorite58

Rain making its way into the West now

Oneiric 3

George Lee reporting here. Oneiric 3 kindly gave me his permission to use his account.

Conditions in Tuam are worsening by the minute. Wind speeds have increased to Cat 4 status. Roofs are being off torn off houses and business premises. Streets and main roads have become streaming torrents with cars, vans and bodies flowing down them. Children are screaming and Banshees are wailing in anticipation of even worse to come. What have we done to our world.

:(

Tune in tomorrow morning for more details (there'll be lots of nice ads for you to watch)

M.T. Cranium

Lorenzo appears to be undergoing some east-west elongation as first stage of the right turn, apparently located just to the north of the K4 buoy which is 120 miles northwest of Belmullet.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105

Would expect landfall of reduced cyclone around Sligo at about 0300h. Heavy rain may become the main concern now, the weakening trend will likely offset the track change to keep winds fairly constant at current levels, although they may tick up slightly for Newport and Mace Head.

No reporting stations between Finner and Malin Head (on the met.ie list) but would expect winds in that stretch of Donegal to back around from southeast to east as the centre of Lorenzo adjusts course, staying in the 40-60 km/hr range mostly.

Interesting event from our point of view but probably will be seen as underperforming by many. I had a p.m. making a good point about steady moderate winds and saturated soils combining to place stress on fully-foliated trees in these conditions so might expect more tree problems than the wind speeds alone would suggest. This might be particularly true in Connacht and west Ulster.

M.T. Cranium

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

George Lee reporting here. Oneiric 3 kindly gave me his permission to use his account.

Conditions in Tuam are worsening by the minute. Wind speeds have increased to Cat 4 status. Roofs are being off houses and business premises. Streets and main roads have become streaming torrents with cars, vans and bodies flowing down them. Children are screaming and Banshees are wailing in anticipation of even worse to come. What have we done to our world. :(

Tune in tomorrow morning for more details

Will alert my contacts in the Canadian Navy, sounds like they can sail right in there to assist.

easypazz

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

George Lee reporting here. Oneiric 3 kindly gave me his permission to use his account.

Conditions in Tuam are worsening by the minute. Wind speeds have increased to Cat 4 status. Roofs are being off torn off houses and business premises. Streets and main roads have become streaming torrents with cars, vans and bodies flowing down them. Children are screaming and Banshees are wailing in anticipation of even worse to come. What have we done to our world. :(

Tune in tomorrow morning for more details

Hope the beat factory survives, because without sugar there can be no bread.

eastie17

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Lorenzo appears to be undergoing some east-west elongation as first stage of the right turn, apparently located just to the north of the K4 buoy which is 120 miles northwest of Belmullet.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105

Would expect landfall of reduced cyclone around Sligo at about 0300h. Heavy rain may become the main concern now, the weakening trend will likely offset the track change to keep winds fairly constant at current levels, although they may tick up slightly for Newport and Mace Head.

No reporting stations between Finner and Malin Head (on the met.ie list) but would expect winds in that stretch of Donegal to back around from southeast to east as the centre of Lorenzo adjusts course, staying in the 40-60 km/hr range mostly.

Interesting event from our point of view but probably will be seen as underperforming by many. I had a p.m. making a good point about steady moderate winds and saturated soils combining to place stress on fully-foliated trees in these conditions so might expect more tree problems than the wind speeds alone would suggest. This might be particularly true in Connacht and west Ulster.

There are no trees in Connacht and west Ulster

Villain

Seas are getting big!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1179843835935039489?s=21

Oneiric 3

I think when all is said and done regarding model performance regarding 'Lorenzo' this last week. They all have, in some form or other, been pretty decent in handling all of the possible outcomes. But my hat has to go off to the UKMO global model as it never really bought into the GFS/ICON's more westerly track, and pretty much dissed the ECMWF trend for a couple of days which had its track way off to the south. I think the UKMO did show this scenario for a couple of runs alight, but it did back off from this quicker than the ECMWF if I remember correctly.

Oscar Bravo

A sudden pick up in winds here in Castlebar.

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done regarding model performance regarding 'Lorenzo' this last week. They all have, in some form or other, been pretty decent in handling all of the possible outcomes. But my hat has to go off to the UKMO global model as it never really bought into the GFS/ICON's more westerly track, and pretty much dissed the ECMWF trend for a couple of days which had its track way off to the south. I think the UKMO did show this scenario for a couple of runs alight, but it did back off from this quicker than the ECMWF if I remember correctly.

How is your hat still on considering your roof is gone 🤔?