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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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igCorcaigh

Looking like it's still way out to the west.

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/satellites/europe-visible#

Is it going to make its turn eastward?

CJhaughey

irishgeo wrote: »

8.7m wave reported reported at m6, m4 probably more in the line now but that seems to only report wave measurements every 3 hpurs sadly.

Max wave height recorded was 12.5m @1300 today.
http://webapps.marine.ie/IWPGraphs/Default.aspx?Type=1&ProjectId=2&InstSite=M6&Inst=Hmax

pauldry

Looking at forecast track of the system i expect some surprises could yet be in store tonight from this. Id imagine some power outages after dark. Its nowhere near us yet.

DOCARCH

Deirdre Lowe from ME on radio now saying they do not expect landfall until around 5am or 6am tomorrow morning, somewhere between north Mayo/Donegal.

Fitzo123

pauldry wrote: »

Looking at forecast track of the system i expect some surprises could yet be in store tonight from this. Id imagine some power outages after dark. Its nowhere near us yet.

Met Eireann just said on RTÉ that Sligo and Leitrim will probably be in Orange warnings. Clearly tracking a bit northerly than expected.

Kamili

DOCARCH wrote: »

Deirdre Lowe from ME on radio now saying they do not expect landfall until around 5am or 6am tomorrow morning.

Looking at the GFS on Ventusky this seems to tie in, and it is making landfall further north and then appears to just die out by 10am.

squarecircles

DOCARCH

Recent gust of 52kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour.

SleetAndSnow

Normal enough day in cork city. Was windy this morning and then really heavy rain (drizzling now) but calmed down. I’d say from tonight onwards is when the country will start to really feel the winds.

JFKIRELAND

DOCARCH wrote: »

Recent gust of 52kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour.

Docarch,
Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
JK

Villain

Fitzo123 wrote: »

Met Eireann just said on RTÉ that Sligo and Leitrim will probably be in Orange warnings. Clearly tracking a bit northerly than expected.

That would be inline with what the the 6z models showed that I mentioned on my live twitter update at lunch and makes sense.

odyboody

UrbanFret wrote: »

For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

At a very basic level it bumps into the jet stream which pushes along in this case to the right of its current path

Jpmarn

UrbanFret wrote: »

For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

I think it is the jet stream that steers depressions. If anyone else might be better able to answer this question. It is probably like maneuvering a large truck around a sharp corner.

DOCARCH

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Docarch,
Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
JK

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

pauldry

Re Met Eireann

The Met Office in the UK always had touchdown in West Donegal and Met Eireann North Mayo

To me the Met Office always looked more correct but we willsee if the hosepipe hits a duck in Mayo or Donegal and remember Sligo is the mediator

Discodog

My watch shows the pressure bottoming out at 994 - 14.45 in Galway. Is Sat 24 the best way to see the latest position ?

JFKIRELAND

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.
Could be the differnce between a storm & strong gale :cool:

cherryghost

Latest GFS run shows wider range for high gusts along the coast tonight. Everywhere else is BAU and unchanged.

DOCARCH

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.

Fair point!

By the way a lot calmer than earlier now in Dublin 16. Was quite stormy earlier. Just a light breeze now.

sideswipe

Great both threads full of 'banter'.

Plenty more moisture to come over the weekend looking at whats coming in off the atlantic.

EF89YczXoAILsv_?format=jpg&name=small

m17

Mortelaro

Raining lightly all day in the Arklow area but very light
Warmer sir is moving in
Temp is up 4c since earlier in the afternoon despite the wind and rain
Wind is veering SW as opposed to SE ,so off land not sea which could explain some of this also
Currently 1001.3mb falling steadily

m17

Roonagh pier co mayo 03/10/19

dacogawa

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

It was very rough down at Poolbeg, I'll have a video up in a while.

SleetAndSnow

Is it slowly starting to turn or is it just spreading out on Sat 24 in the 17:25 update?

irishgeo

Looks like a band of rain moving in to Galway soon enough based in the latest sat24 image.

dacogawa

The Great South Wall and Poolbeg Lighthouse at high tide this afternoon.

https://twitter.com/DavidCostelloDC/status/1179797603019628547

pauldry

50knots still seems the highest gust so far

Belmullet hit 49knots just now

A tame affair so far. Wel see what night brings

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1179793552097894406

Interesting? Latest GFS and Icon seemed to show stronger winds around 6am-10am tomorrow

redsteveireland

18:10, and the first letterbox rattle in Galway. Most accurate weather warning ever.