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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Reati

Mortelaro wrote: »

Here though south of the Dublin mountains, its 20 gusting 30kmh SW with nothing much to hinder the wind
So it's not that.

I've had stronger sea breezes in summer!

Same here. Well south of Dublin, by the coast and it peaked at 60kph and eased off since.

Gaoth Laidir

That sensor tower Dún Laoghaire harbour is in an excellent location on the top of the sea wall to get an open exposure from all directions. I'd have no reason to doubt the 52 knots.

That was some Föhn in southwest Dublin/NE Kildare today. It made a difference of 2 or 3 degrees and caused a fair bit of nice sunshine in Tallaght most of the day.

Can't stanf George Lee on the Six-One news. Resorted to warning people about the danger of chainsaws in the end as there's not much else to hype about. Awful. I can't believe that they're having a special program live on RTE 1 from 7 am tomorrow. I think they might end up talking about Brexit...

It seems the centre has followed more like the Icon, which a couple of days ago was showing a more northerly path. The German FAX forecast charts were showing it taking a northerly path and fizzling out, which won't be right. Somewhere between the two looks right.

Mortelaro

Supercell wrote: »

Nothing burger here, glad to be honest.

Wicklow mountains sheltering wind flow in southern Dublin area currently I'd imagine.
Airport taf pretty much says thats all folks (Dublin), maybe some more gusts but nothing major was the wind veers more westerly.
Currently 8 knots at Dublin airport:

EIDW 031730Z 15008KT 110V170 9999 -DZ FEW005 SCT018 BKN024 14/13 Q0999 TEMPO 4000 BKN007

TAF EIDW 031700Z 0318/0418 21015G25KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
BECMG 0318/0321 24020G30KT
TEMPO 0318/0319 5000 -RA BKN012
BECMG 0322/0401 23015G27KT
TEMPO 0401/0408 5000 RA BKN008
BECMG 0409/0411 31012KT
PROB30
TEMPO 0409/0415 BKN008
BECMG 0415/0418 VRB03KT

Here though south of the Dublin mountains, its 20 gusting 30kmh SW with nothing much to hinder the wind
So it's not that.

I've had stronger sea breezes in summer!

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing not as strong winds since the earlier run. Much slower on this run to make it to the coast , probably around 06.00 or 07.00 so shedding most of its energy over the sea . That is a fair decrease in wind speeds since this morning, now looking like gusting 100 to 110 on coasts from Sligo to Clare with some stronger gusts on exposed headlands. Not showing the strong winds penetrating to far inland.

TTLF

Rain is starting to Pick up now

-S.Dublin

signostic

Knock Taf issued @ 1700z (1800BST)

TAF: EIKN 031700Z 0318/0418 21018G32KT 9999 BKN012 BECMG 0321/0324 23023G38KT TEMPO 0321/0404 3000 SHRA BKN005 SCT018CB BECMG 0400/0403 26023G39KT TEMPO 0404/0406 3000 -RA BR BKN005 BECMG 0407/0409 29020G30KT BECMG 0409/0411 32017G28KT BECMG 0412/0414 32010KT BECMG 0416/0418 VRB03KT

Supercell

Nothing burger here, glad to be honest.

Wicklow mountains sheltering wind flow in southern Dublin area currently I'd imagine.
Airport taf pretty much says thats all folks (Dublin), maybe some more gusts but nothing major was the wind veers more westerly.
Currently 8 knots at Dublin airport:

EIDW 031730Z 15008KT 110V170 9999 -DZ FEW005 SCT018 BKN024 14/13 Q0999 TEMPO 4000 BKN007

TAF EIDW 031700Z 0318/0418 21015G25KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
BECMG 0318/0321 24020G30KT
TEMPO 0318/0319 5000 -RA BKN012
BECMG 0322/0401 23015G27KT
TEMPO 0401/0408 5000 RA BKN008
BECMG 0409/0411 31012KT
PROB30
TEMPO 0409/0415 BKN008
BECMG 0415/0418 VRB03KT

irishgeo

The first of the rain is now showing up on the met.ie radar. Probably hitting west Galway in the next hour.

redsteveireland

18:10, and the first letterbox rattle in Galway. Most accurate weather warning ever.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1179793552097894406

Interesting? Latest GFS and Icon seemed to show stronger winds around 6am-10am tomorrow

pauldry

50knots still seems the highest gust so far

Belmullet hit 49knots just now

A tame affair so far. Wel see what night brings

dacogawa

The Great South Wall and Poolbeg Lighthouse at high tide this afternoon.

https://twitter.com/DavidCostelloDC/status/1179797603019628547

irishgeo

Looks like a band of rain moving in to Galway soon enough based in the latest sat24 image.

SleetAndSnow

Is it slowly starting to turn or is it just spreading out on Sat 24 in the 17:25 update?

dacogawa

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

It was very rough down at Poolbeg, I'll have a video up in a while.

m17

Roonagh pier co mayo 03/10/19

Mortelaro

Raining lightly all day in the Arklow area but very light
Warmer sir is moving in
Temp is up 4c since earlier in the afternoon despite the wind and rain
Wind is veering SW as opposed to SE ,so off land not sea which could explain some of this also
Currently 1001.3mb falling steadily

m17

sideswipe

Great both threads full of 'banter'.

Plenty more moisture to come over the weekend looking at whats coming in off the atlantic.

EF89YczXoAILsv_?format=jpg&name=small

DOCARCH

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.

Fair point!

By the way a lot calmer than earlier now in Dublin 16. Was quite stormy earlier. Just a light breeze now.

cherryghost

Latest GFS run shows wider range for high gusts along the coast tonight. Everywhere else is BAU and unchanged.

JFKIRELAND

DOCARCH wrote: »

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

Sorry Docarch my point is more that there could be structural interference in the DL readings. In a SE wind,the Carlisle Pier, the RSTGYC, the NYC and the East Pier are in line, whereas the DBB is more open to the true wind.
Could be the differnce between a storm & strong gale :cool:

Discodog

My watch shows the pressure bottoming out at 994 - 14.45 in Galway. Is Sat 24 the best way to see the latest position ?

pauldry

Re Met Eireann

The Met Office in the UK always had touchdown in West Donegal and Met Eireann North Mayo

To me the Met Office always looked more correct but we willsee if the hosepipe hits a duck in Mayo or Donegal and remember Sligo is the mediator

DOCARCH

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Docarch,
Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
JK

The Dublin Bay bouy is probably around 3 or 4km from DL Harbour. In addition sensors to the bouy are only around 3m over sea level where as sensors to DL Harbour higher, around 10m over sea level.

Given that, not sure that makes the buoy any more accurate than DL Harbour?

Atm, bouy is reporting 48kt gust and DL Harbour reporting 52kt gust.

Jpmarn

UrbanFret wrote: »

For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

I think it is the jet stream that steers depressions. If anyone else might be better able to answer this question. It is probably like maneuvering a large truck around a sharp corner.

odyboody

UrbanFret wrote: »

For the uninitiated why does it not keep heading north. What causes it to veer right.

At a very basic level it bumps into the jet stream which pushes along in this case to the right of its current path

Villain

Fitzo123 wrote: »

Met Eireann just said on RTÉ that Sligo and Leitrim will probably be in Orange warnings. Clearly tracking a bit northerly than expected.

That would be inline with what the the 6z models showed that I mentioned on my live twitter update at lunch and makes sense.

JFKIRELAND

DOCARCH wrote: »

Recent gust of 52kts at DunLaoghaire Harbour.

Docarch,
Not so sure on DL Harbour readings.
The Dublin Bay Bouy is showing a difference in the gusts registered. I think the bouy is positionally better for picking up wind information - less structural interference. Highest gust so far is 47 knots (F9) and the Avg wind has been in the F7 category.
https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy
JK

SleetAndSnow

Normal enough day in cork city. Was windy this morning and then really heavy rain (drizzling now) but calmed down. I’d say from tonight onwards is when the country will start to really feel the winds.