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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Meteorite58

Oneiric 3

Pressure trend at my station over the last 12 hrs. Fairly steady fall since midnight though a few curious 'wobbles' occurring earlier on this morning:

Graces7

skyscapes out here half an hour ago

West Mayo offshore.
Bitterly cold

SleetAndSnow

Removing cork from orange was the right thing, If anything it was only small parts of cork that needed it. Regardless that doesn’t mean the winds won’t still be strong. Some gusts already this morning blowing the trees fairly strongly causing leaves to be everywhere. I’d still be vigilant as it is a different type of yellow warning with the very wet ground and trees full of leaves, could still be plenty of damage.

M.T. Cranium

Cristian Unimportant Starch wrote: »

Are the strongest winds/gusts always on the southwest side of a storm/hurricane?

Not always, but when storms of all kinds are moving northeast the strongest winds are usually found in the southeast quadrant. A storm moving from west to east would likely have strongest winds to the south.

But for hurricanes or typhoons moving northwest, you would expect the strongest winds to be in the northeast quadrant. For those moving east to west, the strongest winds (as with Dorian recently in Bahamas) would be north of the centre.

However, in all cases, the stronger the tropical system, the more concentrated the strong winds would be in the eyewall in general, and while the same rules generally apply, the eyewall all around the centre can have almost equally strong winds.

Reasons for this include the interaction of upper level winds steering the storm with boundary layer, and the forward motion of the storm added to the wind direction.

Mortelaro

1012.4mb in Arklow falling rapidly
Wind SSE gusting to 47 kmh

Snow Garden

Can someone repost the chart that shows the storm centre on a time basis - I saw the chart a few times with crudely drawn timelines. Effective for all the 'when will it hit' questions.

MJohnston

Snow Garden wrote: »

Can someone repost the chart that shows the storm centre on a time basis - I saw the chart a few times with crudely drawn timelines. Effective for all the 'when will it hit' questions.

No longer available since Lorenzo transitioned from being a hurricane. The NHC create those charts, and the storm is out of their area of responsibility now (and has been for about a day, so most of the previous charts wouldn't be accurate)

uck51js9zml2yt

MJohnston wrote: »

No longer available since Lorenzo transitioned from being a hurricane. The NHC create those charts, and the storm is out of their area of responsibility now (and has been for about a day, so most of the previous charts wouldn't be accurate)

I chuckled at the idea of someone having responsibility for a storm.

SeaBreezes

Snow Garden wrote: »

Can someone repost the chart that shows the storm centre on a time basis - I saw the chart a few times with crudely drawn timelines. Effective for all the 'when will it hit' questions.

Their last update:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/143913.shtml?mltoa34#contents

Oneiric 3

Nice WV image taken half an hour ago.

Gaoth Laidir

FAX analysis at 06Z. At 969 hPa it was 5 hPa higher than that forecasted 24 hours ago.

Kamili

Snow Garden wrote: »

Can someone repost the chart that shows the storm centre on a time basis - I saw the chart a few times with crudely drawn timelines. Effective for all the 'when will it hit' questions.

Google have started tracking it for you

https://www.google.com/maps/@49.663661,-11.8838656,5z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11fnqbt298?hl=en

Pic from the National Hurricane Center

Hector Savage

https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Munster/Fastnet_Rock/

I thought Fastnet would get a battering, but seems fine, mind you map above explains it..

Oneiric 3

Sky is getting very strange looking here. Clouds are broken with a mix of high based Altocumulus and Altostratus with deep blue sky in between. Odd thing is though there are short little heavy showers springing up and all falling from these higher based clouds with light being dispersed in a very surreal way as a result.

Hector Savage

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Sky is getting very strange looking here. Clouds are broken with a mix of high based Altocumulus and Altostratus with deep blue sky in between. Odd thing is though there are short little heavy showers springing up and all falling from these higher based clouds with light being dispersed in a very surreal way as a result.

Where are you ?
Post a photo if possible!

Oneiric 3

ICON 06z going for a Donegal landing later tonight:

Oneiric 3

Hector Savage wrote: »

Where are you ?
Post a photo if possible!

Galway. Didn't take a photo

Sky is closing in rapidly now anyway.

pad199207

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Galway. Didn't take a photo Sky is closing in rapidly now anyway.

Same here. Gone dark and clouds have lost their HD clarity look to them

dacogawa

The M3 buoy (60km off SW of Cork) and M6 (390km off Galway Bay) 9am reports. The wave height is picking up. 969hPa on the M6.

Widdershins

Same cloud layers in Clare. I didn't mention it because I didn't remember the cloud names until I saw Oneiric's post.

MJohnston

Here's where those buoys are for reference:

Water John

Lashing rain here in Cork for the last hour.

Oneiric 3

pad199207 wrote: »

Same here. Gone dark and clouds have lost their HD clarity look to them

'HD Clarity' That perfectly describes the scene.

pad199207

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

'HD Clarity' That perfectly describes the scene.

only way I could describe it really lol the way the sun was behind the clouds

Oneiric 3

Widdershins wrote: »

Same cloud layers in Clare. I didn't mention it because I didn't remember the cloud names until I saw Oneiric's post.

Very handy site to help you refresh those forgotten cloud names. Just click on any of the images and it will give you the name of them and a brief description.

https://cloudatlas.wmo.int/search-image-gallery.html

Could look at these all day.

Villain

The M6 Buoy is the one to watch, seems center passed very close in last hour.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179693956382236672?s=20

pad199207

Odd shapes and sizes

wayoutwest

Getting pretty gusty in the last half hour, with fast moving low dark clouds begining to blot out the blue sky. No rain yet. South Sligo.
Looking eastAttachment not found.

Gaoth Laidir

AMSR2 windfield at 03:37Z