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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

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ToBeFrank123

Varta wrote: »

The WA may have to go back to the HoC three more times, or even thirty more times. But one day, even perhaps after a no deal, the HoC and you will have to accept the backstop. The EU will wait however long it takes.

The chances of the HoC voting for the backstop are remote/zero. Round we go again.

Infini

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

Read more here ----> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7528723/Lib-Dems-leapfrog-Labour-new-poll-disaster-Jeremy-Corbyn.html

It should be noted that in an Ironic sort of way the Liberal party (LD's predecessor) was the one that fought with the convervatives for power in the 19th and early 20th centuries until Labour eclipsed it after the Irish Free State was formed. They never gained power as a Major party again.

So ironic that Corbyn's dithering on Brexit actually could risk the rise of a Liberal Dem goverment with LABOUR as the junior member a century after Labour took the 2nd place and alternative goverment spot from them.

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

You keep misunderstanding what is happening here. The UK voted to leave, but want some of the things the EU have. So they have asked can they keep the stuff they like.

The EU said it'll cost you, this is the price. The UK said no. A normal negotiation would see the UK look elsewhere, but the EU has a monopoly on EU trade and as such they dictate the price.

It's a **** place for the UK to find itself for sure, but they put themselves there.

This was never about the EU, their position have been known from Day 1. This has been, and continues to be, all about the UK and whether it really thinks it can do better outside the EU.

Your original statement was badly phrased which is why I questioned it.

The general view is Johnson wants to leave without a deal. The UK leaving without a deal would be a disaster for all concerned including Ireland.

That we might ride it out or someday there may be a border poll etc because of it is pie in the sky stuff.

Our preparations for a No Deal crashout are as bad as Britains.

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our preparations for a No Deal crashout are next to none.

This statement is based on?

ToBeFrank123

Water John wrote: »

The contempt Johnson is showing to the interests of NI and its people needs to be highlighted over the next few days. The only ones this was run past for their view, was the DUP. the main reason to do that was to get the ERG on side.

There is no one else in the HoC from NI to run it past to get support. Why would he bother running it past Sinn Fein for example when they don't vote there?

AllForIt

robindch wrote: »

Odd that Mr Johnson forgot to shake the hands of two specific front-row delegates:

https://twitter.com/rodkelly50/status/1179426128458588163

The reply to this post is unavailable

Peregrinus

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There is no one else in the HoC from NI to run it past to get support. Why would he bother running it past Sinn Fein for example when they don't vote there?

But that just suggests that Johnson's only concern is whether he can get this deal through the House of Commons; he is unconcerned about whether it is welcome or even workable in NI. And yet a proposed deal that is not workable in NI is not credible.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As for Irish people thinking a No Deal is a positive, get real. It would be a disaster for this country.

All forms of hard or no deal Brexit will be more or less similarly bad. Ireland's only options are to stop Brexit or soften Brexit (by getting rid of the Tories) or is there must be a hard/ND Brexit making sure it is one with a backstop.

As for the HOC, it is more accurate to note that they voted 600 to 12 in favour of the backstop- I think you'll agree that the HOC is very much in favour of the backstop.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Varta wrote: »

The WA may have to go back to the HoC three more times, or even thirty more times. But one day, even perhaps after a no deal, the HoC and you will have to accept the backstop. The EU will wait however long it takes.

The chances of the HoC voting for the backstop are remote/zero. Round we go again.

Then why did the HOC vote c. 600 to 12 in favour of the backstop when asked to vote on it? Remember the people of Ireland and NI want the backstop and now everyone admits that the only way to comply with what the Joint Report admits are required to comply with the obligations under the GFA is the backstop. And you believe the HOC would not support that and will in fact actively look to destabilize NI? Have some faith in basic human goodness.

[Deleted User]

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Your original statement was badly phrased which is why I questioned it.

The general view is Johnson wants to leave without a deal. The UK leaving without a deal would be a disaster for all concerned including Ireland.

That we might ride it out or someday there may be a border poll etc because of it is pie in the sky stuff.

Our preparations for a No Deal crashout are as bad as Britains.

Do you understand that agreeing to a deal without a proper backstop means Ireland signing up to a border in the future? It doesn't make any sense for Ireland to sign off on what it really does not want.

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The general view is Johnson wants to leave without a deal. The UK leaving without a deal would be a disaster for all concerned including Ireland.

Judge a politician on his actions and not his words, especially a serial liar like Johnson. He says he wants a deal but all the dithering and this proposals for a deal he has presented the EU doesn't dovetail with his pronouncements of him wanting a deal.

Make no mistake there is a realistic deal out there for the UK, the just have to accept the truth that they will not get all they wants for the price they want. If people cannot see this by now then a hard shock needs to happen. We will have to face the effects of the shock as well as we are the closest to the UK, but that is life sometimes. You cannot always avoid disaster, you just deal with it the best you can.

Enzokk

Very interesting piece by Marina Hyde on the Tory Conference.

Raising hopes and denying gropes: Tory conference leaves no fantasy untouched

Her take on the recent conference is a good read. At least it provides a few smiles when you consider if the polls are correct this would be the people running the UK for 5 years in a GE. I will just leave the opening paragraph here,

For the Conservative party’s Manchester conference, the slogan was “Get Brexit done”. Yet again, Boris Johnson swears blind he’s going to withdraw on schedule. A promise an unspecified number of single mothers have heard before.

riddles

This is not an attempt at a deal it’s merely a platform to launch an election campaign to draw in moronic voters.

The tag line will be “ the EU wants to humiliate us but that’s not going to happen!”

The EU have seen through this already. It is not unreasonable to suggest that the island of Ireland is viewed as one regulatory body for the purposes of moving this thing along. It seems our orange friends are not expected to compromise is anyway.

Galway56736

robindch wrote: »

Odd that Mr Johnson forgot to shake the hands of two specific front-row delegates:

I'm far from a Boris supporter - but to be fair everyone else offered their hand to shake or else looked for a hug, whereas those 2 gentlemen didnt and kept clapping.

prunudo

Galway56736 wrote: »

I'm far from a Boris supporter - but to be fair everyone else offered their hand to shake or else looked for a hug, whereas those 2 gentlemen didnt and kept clapping.

Same here, its a bit a stretch to be implying he's racist from that clip, everyone else was looking for a handshake. Looks bad but thats it.

VinLieger

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Our preparations for a No Deal crashout are as bad as Britains.

Well thats a lie

Theres the introduction of several new Roro routes, hiring of 100+ new customs officers, the constant refrain from government to businesses to prepare for the worst, the preparation of a 2nd budget for post october 30th if its needed, which is far more than the UK have done and is still not all weve been doing.

Enzokk

Galway56736 wrote: »

I'm far from a Boris supporter - but to be fair everyone else offered their hand to shake or else looked for a hug, whereas those 2 gentlemen didnt and kept clapping.

prunudo wrote: »

Same here, its a bit a stretch to be implying he's racist from that clip, everyone else was looking for a handshake. Looks bad but thats it.

I agree, but then I look at his previous record and the racist pieces he wrote or things he said and I see them not wanting to shake his hand and it looks bad either way for him. There aren't a lot of BAME Tory members I would think and to have 2 of them refuse to shake his hand speaks volumes for me.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Not so fast with cynicism. The Green wet dream is a Europe wide supergrid to facilitate wind in West and solar in South, areas of Europe that coincidentally need jobs.

It's not our fault the UK are pulling up anchor and sailing to lalaland

It was also pointed out here that presumably the French would be ponying up some of the cost as well.

prunudo

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree, but then I look at his previous record and the racist pieces he wrote or things he said and I see them not wanting to shake his hand and it looks bad either way for him. There aren't a lot of BAME Tory members I would think and to have 2 of them refuse to shake his hand speaks volumes for me.

Never thought of it as them refusing to shake his hand, although they are clapping quite encouragingly.

Enzokk

prunudo wrote: »

Never thought of it as them refusing to shake his hand, although they are clapping quite encouragingly.

Unless they are tracked down and their feelings are made known we are speculating, but I am going to see it as them rejecting him but respecting the office he is currently occupying. That makes him look the worst in my eyes so I am going with that.:cool:

maebee

Another interesting day ahead. According to RTE News, Johnson is to make a statement to MPs this morning. EU steering group statement coming this afternoon.

Professor Moriarty

fash wrote: »

All forms of hard or no deal Brexit will be more or less similarly bad. Ireland's only options are to stop Brexit or soften Brexit (by getting rid of the Tories) or is there must be a hard/ND Brexit making sure it is one with a backstop.

As for the HOC, it is more accurate to note that they voted 600 to 12 in favour of the backstop- I think you'll agree that the HOC is very much in favour of the backstop.

How long ago was that?

Hurrache

UK gov - Here, lets give them this piece of crap, they'll dump it as soon as they get it and we'll look great.
EU {to itself} - Hey guys, they're up to it again. Lets pretend we'll consider it and not play into their hands.
UK gov - ****, ****, ****. Lads, WTF do we do now. I know, everyone, from now on call the EU crazy.
EU - {tumbelweed}
UK gov - Eh, it's not working lads, what next?
Barclay - Hold my Pimm's...

UK sets European Union two-day deadline to begin talks on Boris Johnson's new plan

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-uk-eu-proposal-stephen-barclay-a9133761.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1570088407

FrancieBrady

maebee wrote: »

Another interesting day ahead. According to RTE News, Johnson is to make a statement to MPs this morning. EU steering group statement coming this afternoon.

Another familiar day, don't you mean,
The EU welcoming progress...but.
UK PM gilding the lily/turd in the HOC.

Sunset = no change there then.

prawnsambo

Hurrache wrote: »

UK gov - Here, lets give them this piece of crap, they'll dump it as soon as they get it and we'll look great.
EU {to itself} - Hey guys, they're up to it again. Lets pretend we'll consider it and not play into their hands.
UK gov - ****, ****, ****. Lads, WTF do we do now. I know, everyone, from now on call the EU crazy.
EU - {tumbelweed}
UK gov - Eh, it's not working lads, what next?
Barclay - Hold my Pimm's...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-uk-eu-proposal-stephen-barclay-a9133761.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1570088407

Saw that. As if they won't get talks. They'll be buried under an avalanche of legal questions, requests for clarification, technical queries and counter-proposals. All while various EU talking heads like M. bullsh1t are saying that it's unworkable and others saying that the UK is slow getting back with the detail they need. Tick tock...

liamtech

An Aside

My other obsession aside from politics is Satellite TV reception, and i think its worth noting that on 9E, there are two Free to Air stations, Europe By Satellite, and Europe By Satellite +

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_by_Satellite

Both are receivable in Ireland using roughly 60 odd cm dish or sky dish (larger dish required if you are tuning in multiple satellites - happy to answer questions and happy to accept DM's or open a discussion in the Satellite forum)

Also, both stations are available online

https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/

https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1

https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/2

Im sorry if anyone feels im hijacking the thread with my other hobby (Crazy satellite guy) but these stations have been very useful over the last few weeks - For example while sky tend to drift over to the European Parliament when Brexit is being discussed, EBS and EBS+ provide a live feed - so when Sky/BBC go back to studio to get the opinion of their guests - EBS and + stay with the parliament and cover the whole event/Debate

So effectively

You get to see the whole debate not just the segments that Sky/Beeb see as popular
You usually get immediate press statements including all questions asked by every news agency in Europe - with no cut-away back to studio
English is provided for all televised events - fully in synced dubbed - this is especially a bonus as SKy/BEEB tend to drift away from the EP/EU when anyone starts speaking another language despite the fact that a Live English soundtrack is provided for all!

Happy to discuss further in DM, here, or over on Satellite thread

A Dub in Glasgo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How long ago was that?

Less than 9 months ago. It was one of the options that the HoC voted on

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Less than 9 months ago. It was one of the options that the HoC voted on

Thanks. That's a powerful fact for Ireland and the EU to point out repeatedly. An awful lot of Tories must have voted for. I'm going to guess Johnson abstained.

A Dub in Glasgo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thanks. That's a powerful fact for Ireland and the EU to point out repeatedly. An awful lot of Tories must have voted for. I'm going to guess Johnson abstained.

Found it, it was the Baron indicative vote. I assume Johnson voted against it

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/15/brexit-amendment-that-might-have-limited-pms-losses-is-rejected

dePeatrick

fash wrote: »

All forms of hard or no deal Brexit will be more or less similarly bad. Ireland's only options are to stop Brexit or soften Brexit (by getting rid of the Tories) or is there must be a hard/ND Brexit making sure it is one with a backstop.

As for the HOC, it is more accurate to note that they voted 600 to 12 in favour of the backstop- I think you'll agree that the HOC is very much in favour of the backstop.

600 to 24

Baron’s amendment stated that if May’s deal was passed, the UK would have the unilateral right to terminate the backstop without the say-so of the EU. This would have gone against the withdrawal agreement with the EU, and so was not supported by the government

In favour of having the right to remove the backstop...