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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Best of all would be if he has to resign as PM to avoid requesting the extension, since that paints him as a quitter. I don't know if the Tories could allow someone who resigns as PM to lead them into the resulting General Election.

That's the scenario that I was imagining - have the Rebel Alliance push him closer and closer to the edge, either to the point that he calls the VoNC in himself, or he's forced to resign. Neither option would be a great sell in a subsequent GE.

[Deleted User]

"we are the party of the NHS"

So much so, they voted against its formation TWENTY ONE times.

Enzokk

Did this just happen? Johnson said there were people skeptical of wind farms and how they couldn't even pull the skin off a rice pudding but the UK showed them they were wrong.

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179353250824364032?s=20

That is Boris Johnson calling out Boris Johnson. This is a joke of a PM, not even worth the time of the day to be honest. He is a liar and a cheat and shouldn't be in charge of anything as he is lazy and it seems like he has passed on responsibility to Cummings for running the country.

gooch2k9

Deleted User wrote: »

"we are the party of the NHS"

So much so, they voted against its formation TWENTY ONE times.

Please don't go against the narrative. They're the party pumping money into education, policing and healthcare. It was an entirely different Tory party that took all that money away in the first place. We musn't talk about them.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting to see the Ulster Unionists finally finding their voice and opposing Border checks - are we finally seeing the DUP endgame within Ulster Protestantism?

Roger_007

I'm watching Liz Truss on the politics programme on BBC2. I used to think the dumb blonde was just a stereotype; now I'm not so sure!

Tippex

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1179358704338178049

Did I just hear this correctly "We are proud female employment at record lows"

nc6000

Tippex wrote: »

Did I just hear this correctly "We are proud female employment at record lows"

I presume he meant to say UNemployment.

Strange to have PMQs like that with neither the PM or the opposition leader present.

woohoo!!!

Deleted User wrote: »

"we are the party of the NHS"

So much so, they voted against its formation TWENTY ONE times.

Should be on the next Led by Donkeys poster.

NotToScale

At one stage during the speech he was quite literally babbling on about kangaroo testicles!

It's impossible to even satirise this stuff. You couldn't make it up.

Zubeneschamali

liamtech wrote: »

[*]AND that a possibility exists of the Lib Dems being in 2nd place polls wise going into a GE, and therefore possibly the 2nd largest party coming out

That isn't how the UK system works.

Labour voters swinging to the LibDems is more likely going to give the Tories a thumping majority than elect a lot of LibDems.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But Johnson wants the clock to run down, so a delay is good. He simply refuses to follow the so-called law, saying it is invalid for some technical reason, and goes to court to prove it. The longer it takes, the better he likes it.

You may say that it breaks all norms for the PM to do that, but we already know he likes breaking norms. The Express already floated the idea of Johnson winning the next election from jail.

It's not about norms. The Benn Act is law until it's overturned in court. Or parliament. Which is very unlikely. You don't get injunctions against laws while you're challenging them in the courts. The system would fall apart if that were the case. If he ignores the law, he's in contempt and could face jail.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

If he ignores the law, he's in contempt and could face jail.

Well, yes, as I said in my previous, he may fancy his chances winning an election from jail as a Brexit Martyr.

farmchoice

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's not about norms. The Benn Act is law until it's overturned in court. Or parliament. Which is very unlikely. You don't get injunctions against laws while you're challenging them in the courts. The system would fall apart if that were the case. If he ignores the law, he's in contempt and could face jail.

the benn act is law, but it requires a person, boris johnson in this case to send a letter, asking the eu for an extension which they may or may not grant. if he fails to do so then the clock ticks down to 31st of October and out they go.
the likely court challenge would come from the opposition who will challenge his action or lack of, as unlawful.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1179343991889960961

Boris Johnson plan does not achieve a single one of these things. Not one.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson plan does not achieve a single one of these things. Not one.

And that is deliberate, he does not want to risk the EU agreeing to talk about it since that would be surrender talk in the eyes of the Brexiteers.

It has to be rejected outright for Boris to be their hero.

robinph

nc6000 wrote: »

Tippex wrote: »

Did I just hear this correctly "We are proud female employment at record lows"

I presume he meant to say UNemployment.

Strange to have PMQs like that with neither the PM or the opposition leader present.

Just mentioned on the 1 o'clock news and seemed to be making use of the lack of Johnson for having a standin for Corbyn also to be the first black person to ask a question at the despatch box PMQ as it's black history month.

J Mysterio

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Should be on the next Led by Donkeys poster.

Mail them, they like suggestions

Umaro

prawnsambo wrote: »

It would need to be mirrored by other polls tbh. YouGov have been a consistent outlier with regard to Tory vote share and the gap to Labour.

I decided to check out how close YouGov got the 2017 election, there's an article about it here.

Looks like their polling method was pretty close to the end result:

Election%20model%20vs%20final%20result-01.png

Election%20model%20vs%20final%20result-01.png

Should definitely be cause for alarm in the Labour party. Could turn out that Corbyn sitting firmly on the fence isn't such a great strategy.

LuckyLloyd

Umaro wrote: »

I decided to check out how close YouGov got the 2017 election, there's an article about it here.

Looks like their polling method was pretty close to the end result:

Should definitely be cause for alarm in the Labour party. Could turn out that Corbyn sitting firmly on the fence isn't such a great strategy.

Their polling also demonstrated a massive shift during the actual election campaign - Corbyn benefits from campaigning and the more stringent reporting rules placed upon media

beggars_bush

robinph wrote: »

Just mentioned on the 1 o'clock news and seemed to be making use of the lack of Johnson for having a standin for Corbyn also to be the first black person to ask a question at the despatch box PMQ as it's black history month.

Which is amazing considering the cultural diversity in the UK

prawnsambo

farmchoice wrote: »

the benn act is law, but it requires a person, boris johnson in this case to send a letter, asking the eu for an extension which they may or may not grant. if he fails to do so then the clock ticks down to 31st of October and out they go.
the likely court challenge would come from the opposition who will challenge his action or lack of, as unlawful.

You're forgetting the Nob Off (I do like that shorthand) petition that's hitting the courts on Friday. Timetable estimates it will be through by the 14th. Assuming it gets through of course. Chances are high though.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1179384886051909634

I except to see a lot more of these kind of announcements

quokula

Umaro wrote: »

I decided to check out how close YouGov got the 2017 election, there's an article about it here.

Looks like their polling method was pretty close to the end result:

Should definitely be cause for alarm in the Labour party. Could turn out that Corbyn sitting firmly on the fence isn't such a great strategy.

That was the day before the vote.

This is what Yougov were projecting when that general election was actually called:

Voting%20intention%2018-19%20Apr-01.png

boggerman1

Just listened to a loyalist from the north on lbc.rewriting history and there was never any problems at the border.delusional stuff

Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1179384886051909634

I except to see a lot more of these kind of announcements

See, like we've been told for the last 3 and a half years - they're finally throwing us under that bus :pac:

gooch2k9

boggerman1 wrote: »

Just listened to a loyalist from the north on lbc.rewriting history and there was never any problems at the border.delusional stuff

That's something they are very good at up here. If you'd believe them you would think only one side ever caused any bother.

Any word on the proposals being presented?

RTE saying Varadkar Johnson phone call later on.

Water John

M/s McKenzie from one of the NI business groups, absolutely furious at having not one but two borders. Johnson knows it won't fly and doesn't want it to.

Ext will be sought by someone other than Johnson. His problem is then keeping the Brexit vote together in a subsequent GE, with Farage roaring about Johnson and the Tory failure.

AlmightyCushion

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

See, like we've been told for the last 3 and a half years - they're finally throwing us under that bus :pac:

It's clearly the EU bribing us to back down on the backstop. :pac:

Mefistofelino

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

See, like we've been told for the last 3 and a half years - they're finally throwing us under that bus :pac:

I wouldn't be too ecstatic. Currently there are interconnector projects between the Ireland & UK and UK to France. Effectively, because of Brexit, we've now got to install a massive extension lead between Ireland and France. Given the cost of similar projects, that will be North of a billion euro, of which the EU will give~ half. We still have to pony up at least half a billion Euro for infrastructure that probably wouldn't have been required otherwise.