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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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prawnsambo

YouGov often seem to be a bit of an outlier in polling intentions. But I think this is the first time any poll put the LibDems ahead of Labour.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think the plan is designed to fail.

Johnson wants an extension and he wants a General Election. Devious and despicable.

He's the perfect PM for the Leave voters, he's as bad as they are.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think the plan is designed to fail.

Johnson wants an extension and he wants a General Election. Devious and despicable.

And his ideal scenario is where he is either forced legally or asking for the extension is taken out of his hands. That way he is the victim and he can try and spin it that way to get the Brexit Party vote.

GM228

Dear god, is Baker quoting Satan as inspiration for Brexit:-

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1179184311108538369?s=19

GM228

Just an update on the Nob Off case, substantive hearing this Friday, ruling on Monday (Outer House) by Lord Pentland, appeal likely on Tuesday (Inner House) with final appeal week commencing the 14th (Supreme Court).

WHL

Surely this plan becomes irrelevant because of the Benn Act and the UK must now go back and look for an extension. Is there any possibility that the opposition unite under a compromise leader at some stage (not Corbin but perhaps Margaret Beckett for example), request an extension and continue to run the country as opposed to calling an immediate election (as polls suggest there would be a Tory majority). Wouldn’t a Labour negotiated deal be very different as they don’t have red-lines related to Customs Union etc. Would the EU be amenable to re-opening negotiations with them ending in a new deal and a referendum on this deal or revoke. Would such a deal be appealing to the DUP as NI is treated the same as the rest of the UK and, in my mind, have a safer future in relation to jobs, trade etc. I guess that Tory Rebels might be an issue but if they went back there would clearly be a No Deal which most strongly oppose. This obviously doesn’t fly as nobody is talking about it so will be interested in hearing where it falls apart.

[Deleted User]

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Couldn't SF issue a counter petition of concern. Which would lead to no change in the status quo?

It would depend on how it is set up:
NI Assembly has to approve continuing the agreement past four years -> Unionist petition blocks this -> agreement ends at the end of the four year period.

There is no way for Sinn Fein to petition against that.

If it was set up differently:
Agreement continues unless assembly objects -> Unionists propose ending it -> Sinn Fein petition blocks it -> agreement continues.

It is the first method that seems to be proposed.

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It would depend on how it is set up:
NI Assembly has to approve continuing the agreement past seven years -> Unionist petition blocks this -> agreement ends at the end of the four year period.

There is no way for Sinn Fein to petition against that.

If it was set up differently:
Agreement continues unless assembly objects -> Unionists propose ending it -> Sinn Fein petition blocks it -> agreement continues.

It is the first method that seems to be proposed.

There's no point in even analysing the hogwash.

Sam Russell

WHL wrote: »

Surely this plan becomes irrelevant because of the Benn Act and the UK must now go back and look for an extension. Is there any possibility that the opposition unite under a compromise leader at some stage (not Corbin but perhaps Margaret Beckett for example), request an extension and continue to run the country as opposed to calling an immediate election (as polls suggest there would be a Tory majority). Wouldn’t a Labour negotiated deal be very different as they don’t have red-lines related to Customs Union etc. Would the EU be amenable to re-opening negotiations with them ending in a new deal and a referendum on this deal or revoke. Would such a deal be appealing to the DUP as NI is treated the same as the rest of the UK and, in my mind, have a safer future in relation to jobs, trade etc. I guess that Tory Rebels might be an issue but if they went back there would clearly be a No Deal which most strongly oppose. This obviously doesn’t fly as nobody is talking about it so will be interested in hearing where it falls apart.

I think that it is not being talked about is because that would kill it stone dead. The same logic applied to the Irish Gov refusing to talk about a hard border on the island of Ireland.

It makes no sense for the UK opposition to give up their control of parliament just to hold a GE, which they could well lose. They should form a GNU and aim to get a referendum before a GE as it takes 50%+ to win a referendum but only 30%+ to win a GE.

Better to form the GNU, announce the ref for 6 months time, followed by a GE. In the meantime get austerity done - by stealing the Tory spending plans. The Tories will still own austerity and hostile environment and other nasty policies.

Current atmosphere is too febrile for any kind of rational political discourse. Corbyn would be greatly praised (in some media outlets) as a statesman, and not as a commie power grabber.

However, it is unlikely that they will rise to the challenge.

prawnsambo

WHL wrote: »

Surely this plan becomes irrelevant because of the Benn Act and the UK must now go back and look for an extension. Is there any possibility that the opposition unite under a compromise leader at some stage (not Corbin but perhaps Margaret Beckett for example), request an extension and continue to run the country as opposed to calling an immediate election (as polls suggest there would be a Tory majority). Wouldn’t a Labour negotiated deal be very different as they don’t have red-lines related to Customs Union etc. Would the EU be amenable to re-opening negotiations with them ending in a new deal and a referendum on this deal or revoke. Would such a deal be appealing to the DUP as NI is treated the same as the rest of the UK and, in my mind, have a safer future in relation to jobs, trade etc. I guess that Tory Rebels might be an issue but if they went back there would clearly be a No Deal which most strongly oppose. This obviously doesn’t fly as nobody is talking about it so will be interested in hearing where it falls apart.

I'm not sure Labour actually want to be in the hot seat on this. Brexit is toxic because you're screwed if you do and screwed if you don't. So a Tory brexit that's a disaster would suit them electorally. Hence the fence-sitting and the insistence that an opposition government would be a Labour one with support from the rest, because that's unlikely to happen. An election on their terms would suit them best. As long as they have a lame duck Tory PM, they can dictate the agenda and decide when to push for an election.

The only problem with this approach is that they are bleeding votes to both sides of the brexit debate.

Enzokk

WHL wrote: »

Surely this plan becomes irrelevant because of the Benn Act and the UK must now go back and look for an extension. Is there any possibility that the opposition unite under a compromise leader at some stage (not Corbin but perhaps Margaret Beckett for example), request an extension and continue to run the country as opposed to calling an immediate election (as polls suggest there would be a Tory majority). Wouldn’t a Labour negotiated deal be very different as they don’t have red-lines related to Customs Union etc. Would the EU be amenable to re-opening negotiations with them ending in a new deal and a referendum on this deal or revoke. Would such a deal be appealing to the DUP as NI is treated the same as the rest of the UK and, in my mind, have a safer future in relation to jobs, trade etc. I guess that Tory Rebels might be an issue but if they went back there would clearly be a No Deal which most strongly oppose. This obviously doesn’t fly as nobody is talking about it so will be interested in hearing where it falls apart.

I don't know if the WA changes with another party at the helm, the backstop there is to ensure there is a legal obligation on the UK that they keep to their promises to the EU on multiple occasions. The destination changes but the WA that needs to be agreed before you get there doesn't.

As for the GNU, unless I have it totally wrong the court case GM228 posted about could make the need for a GNU redundant and if it is determined that someone other than the PM can send the extension request, once it is received and acknowledged by the EU then the opposition could start the process for a General Election. What happens after that is up to the people and the new government.

[Deleted User]

J Mysterio wrote: »

There's no point in even analysing the hogwash.

I understand that it is nonsense, just explaining how the proposal is an effective Unionist veto.

Zubeneschamali

WHL wrote: »

Surely this plan becomes irrelevant because of the Benn Act and the UK must now go back and look for an extension.

The opposition parties would really like to force Johnson to request the extension, to make him break his "do or die" promises so that the Brexit Party take a bite out of the Tories for failing to deliver.

But Johnson has said he will not, and there seem to be hints that they plan to go to court to somehow get around the law. Probably futile, as the whole prorogation thing shows they don't know nearly as much about the law as they think they do, but if they can drag out a court case, the opposition may have to go with a VoNC and a new PM of some sort.

LeinsterDub

Deleted User wrote: »

I understand that it is nonsense, just explaining how the proposal is an effective Unionist veto.

Thanks for that it was very helpful.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The opposition parties would really like to force Johnson to request the extension, to make him break his "do or die" promises so that the Brexit Party take a bite out of the Tories for failing to deliver.

They could achieve the same end by forcing him to resign before the 31st Oct. In effect, fulfill the "die" part of his proclamation.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The opposition parties would really like to force Johnson to request the extension, to make him break his "do or die" promises so that the Brexit Party take a bite out of the Tories for failing to deliver.

But Johnson has said he will not, and there seem to be hints that they plan to go to court to somehow get around the law. Probably futile, as the whole prorogation thing shows they don't know nearly as much about the law as they think they do, but if they can drag out a court case, the opposition may have to go with a VoNC and a new PM of some sort.

The problem with challenging the Benn Act in court is that until/unless it is overturned, it's the law. And there's precious little time to do that before it comes into force. It can't go direct to the SC, so it has to hit the HC first. Tick tock.

Incidentally, the EU won't receive the UK proposals until later this afternoon.

LeinsterDub

prawnsambo wrote: »

The problem with challenging the Benn Act in court is that until/unless it is overturned, it's the law. And there's precious little time to do that before it comes into force. It can't go direct to the SC, so it has to hit the HC first. Tick tock.

Wasn't there some talk that the last judgement of the SC had a nod to the Benn Act. Basically saying no more law breaking/ignoring

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

They could achieve the same end by forcing him to resign before the 31st Oct. In effect, fulfill the "die" part of his proclamation.

It has the same effect wrt Brexit, but not in voting terms. If you vote him out, he is seen to go down fighting. If he asks for the extension after swearing blind he will not do that under any circumstances, the Brexit Party make hay.

Best of all would be if he has to resign as PM to avoid requesting the extension, since that paints him as a quitter. I don't know if the Tories could allow someone who resigns as PM to lead them into the resulting General Election.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Wasn't there some talk that the last judgement of the SC had a nod to the Benn Act. Basically saying no more law breaking/ignoring

I don't think so. It may have been mentioned in relation to the inability of parliament to hold government to account because of prorogation.

boggerman1

Boris doing a comedy speech.a buffoon

FrancieBrady

Thought he was going to outline 'the plan' in detail. Skipped over it with plenty of gung ho wrapping paper.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

The problem with challenging the Benn Act in court is that until/unless it is overturned, it's the law. And there's precious little time to do that before it comes into force. It can't go direct to the SC, so it has to hit the HC first. Tick tock.

But Johnson wants the clock to run down, so a delay is good. He simply refuses to follow the so-called law, saying it is invalid for some technical reason, and goes to court to prove it. The longer it takes, the better he likes it.

You may say that it breaks all norms for the PM to do that, but we already know he likes breaking norms. The Express already floated the idea of Johnson winning the next election from jail.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Incidentally, the EU won't receive the UK proposals until later this afternoon.

That is weird, the plans were seemingly that they would receive the plans already. So the UK has delayed passing the plans on to the EU, you would suspect to avoid a tweet going out at the same time as his speech to blow his plans apart.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179326751501164546?s=20

But as you state the plans have not been received yet and will only be passed on later.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179344126480924672?s=20

By the way, the first lies has already appeared in his speech,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1179347664305053698?s=20

If they leave the customs union and single market there will be checks, he cannot avoid them. He just keeps lying an lying.

FrancieBrady

Did even RTE got fed up listening to him?

liamtech

prawnsambo wrote: »

YouGov often seem to be a bit of an outlier in polling intentions. But I think this is the first time any poll put the LibDems ahead of Labour.

Ok this is interesting

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep

If this is true and verified to have a reasonable sample size
and the next few polls from the various sources (Ipsos, Opinium, comres) - confirm that there is a swing away from labor to the Lib Dems
AND that a possibility exists of the Lib Dems being in 2nd place polls wise going into a GE, and therefore possibly the 2nd largest party coming out

Do we think this would have an effect on Corbyn's leadership, and support within the Labor party?

Just asking the question, assume the above hypothetical's are true - ?? The end of Corbyn? (before anyone asks, im a leftie)

boggerman1

My god this speech is truly woeful.he's rambling on and on like some annoying auld drunk in the pub.the crowd seems bored too

Seth Brundle

Tony is quoting some of the nonsense from Johnson. I'd love to know if Johnson managed to keep a straight face during the speech...
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179347290596794368
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179347150897057793
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179347855460519936
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179348146796806145
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179348370214793217

Ben Done

boggerman1 wrote: »

My god this speech is truly woeful.he's rambling on and on like some annoying auld drunk in the pub.the crowd seems bored too

It's sickening to listen to his pound shop stand-up act, in light of the turd he dropped in our letterbox yesterday.

prawnsambo

liamtech wrote: »

Ok this is interesting

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 23% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
If this is true and verified to have a reasonable sample size

and the next few polls from the various sources (Ipsos, Opinium, comres) - confirm that there is a swing away from labor to the Lib Dems

AND that a possibility exists of the Lib Dems being in 2nd place polls wise going into a GE, and therefore possibly the 2nd largest party coming out

Do we think this would have an effect on Corbyn's leadership, and support within the Labor party?

Just asking the question, assume the above hypothetical's are true - ?? The end of Corbyn? (before anyone asks, im a leftie)

It would need to be mirrored by other polls tbh. YouGov have been a consistent outlier with regard to Tory vote share and the gap to Labour.

Kermit.de.frog

Enzokk wrote: »

So the UK has delayed passing the plans on to the EU, you would suspect to avoid a tweet going out at the same time as his speech to blow his plans apart.

They don't want to receive the "no" before the end of the day.

If NI does not remain in the customs union and the single market there will be a physical border on the island.

It's as simple as that.

There is no middle ground.