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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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prawnsambo

A fight broke out at the Conservative Party Conference and an MP has been arrested apparently. The 1922 committee treasurer is reportedly the one arrested. Is this a metaphor for where the UK is right now?

prawnsambo

KildareP wrote: »

The Australian's value a FTA with the EU far more than a FTA with the UK, to the point they're not prepared to sign anything with the UK that might in any way possibly jeopardise an EU FTA, now or at any point in the future.

Likewise New Zealand objected to the UK/EU split of the EU WTO schedule because they did not want their EU quota pro-rataed with the UK.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

A fight broke out at the Conservative Party Conference and an MP has been arrested apparently. The 1922 committee treasurer is reportedly the one arrested. Is this a metaphor for where the UK is right now?

I think you're dead right. An excellent metaphor for the Tory party (and for the country unfortunately). Tory MPs battering the heads off each other. I'd pay good money to watch.

McMurphy

prawnsambo wrote: »

A fight broke out at the Conservative Party Conference and an MP has been arrested apparently. The 1922 committee treasurer is reportedly the one arrested. Is this a metaphor for where the UK is right now?

Am I the only one who immediately thought of the UKraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXxq8kNTXXc

WomanSkirtFan8

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think you're dead right. An excellent metaphor for the Tory party (and for the country unfortunately). Tory MPs battering the heads off each other. I'd pay good money to watch.

agreed but in all honesty, is anyone really surprised? This isn't really surprising tbch. They've tried blame everyone else for their woes and it hasn't worked so the only thing they can do now is try and blame each other. Strange times indeed.

Professor Moriarty

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

agreed but in all honesty, is anyone really surprised? This isn't really surprising tbch. They've tried blame everyone else for their woes and it hasn't worked so the only thing they can do now is try and blame each other. Strange times indeed.

If there is a silver lining in all of this, it's the implosion of the Tory party. Nobody knows what kind of phoenix might rise from the ashes but at least they'll be on the back foot for a while.

Patser

Seen this on Twitter, and it may be coincidental that they just needed new cars, but to me seems a bit too coincidental and looks like planning is being out in place

https://twitter.com/bcab4eu/status/1179007997248454657

farmchoice

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If there is a silver lining in all of this, it's the implosion of the Tory party. Nobody knows what kind of phoenix might rise from the ashes but at least they'll be on the back foot for a while.

the extraordinary thing is if there was an election in the morning they would top the poll.
people complain about Irish politics being tribal FF/FG but we are in the ha'penny place when it comes to england.

prawnsambo

farmchoice wrote: »

the extraordinary thing is if there was an election in the morning they would top the poll.
people complain about Irish politics being tribal FF/FG but we are in the ha'penny place when it comes to england.

They probably would. But it looks like that would be in the mid to high twenties/low thirties rather than up in the high thirties or early forties as they were back in 2017. That could still work out ok for them seat-wise, but it wouldn't give them a majority by any stretch.

derossi

Patser wrote: »

Seen this on Twitter, and it may be coincidental that they just needed new cars, but to me seems a bit too coincidental and looks like planning is being out in place

https://twitter.com/bcab4eu/status/1179007997248454657

Maybe, https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/careers/career-opportunities.aspx

farmchoice

prawnsambo wrote: »

They probably would. But it looks like that would be in the mid to high twenties/low thirties rather than up in the high thirties or early forties as they were back in 2017. That could still work out ok for them seat-wise, but it wouldn't give them a majority by any stretch.

true, i feel the lib dems are playing their hand badly at the moment, they are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. this terror of being seen to support corbyn as an interim leader to avoid a crash out is short sighted, IMO they will only prosper if they try and rise above the usual fault lines of British politics and with this they are only playing into the old stereotypes.

Swinson in not in an electoral position to be making such sweeping demands, she had damn all Mp's compared to the snp let alone labour, yet she sees fit to try to dictate the policy of the opposition.

Kermit.de.frog

derossi wrote: »

Maybe, https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/careers/career-opportunities.aspx

Planning is for no deal I'd imagine which is very likely now.

Govt thinking seem to be the UK govt would have to back within weeks of no deal negotiating due to economic and social fallout.

BorneTobyWilde

Priti Patel started her speech word for word like a Trump speech

'' we are the party of law and order, we stand with our police, we are against the drug barons and thugs, rapists and murders'' She said everything but '' build that wall''

BorneTobyWilde

''we will end the free movement of people, ONCE AND FOR ALL !!! ''

She's watching too many Trump rallies .

murphaph

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

''we will end the free movement of people, ONCE AND FOR ALL !!! ''

She's watching too many Trump rallies .

She means it and she's not limiting herself to EU citizens! They'd love it if you needed papers to go from Liverpool to Manchester.

Professor Moriarty

Isn't Priti the woman who thought capital punishment was a good idea? Isn't she the Priti who had to resign from government two years ago because she hid 14 dodgy meetings with 'businessmen', a lobbyist and the Israeli government? Is this the Priti who suggested that Britain should starve Ireland into submission?

prunudo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

''we will end the free movement of people, ONCE AND FOR ALL !!! ''

She's watching too many Trump rallies .

But not all the people from the countries that will want visas in return for them doing great trade deals with the UK.

Injuryprone

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

''we will end the free movement of people, ONCE AND FOR ALL !!! ''

She's watching too many Trump rallies .

I'm sorry if this is old ground that's been gone over before, but how are they going to end freedom of movement of people if they have an open border in NI.

There was another MP on sky news this afternoon talking about the border and he said the people part of the border was a non issue because of the CTA, that it was only a goods issue. But what if someone comes from one of the other 25 EU countries comes to the Republic and crosses the border?

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Isn't Priti the woman who thought capital punishment was a good idea? Isn't she the Priti who had to resign from government two years ago because she hid 14 dodgy meetings with 'businessmen', a lobbyist and the Israeli government? Is this the Priti who suggested that Britain should starve Ireland into submission?

Yep, that's the one. Thousand pound an hour Priti. It's a cabinet of the incompetent and grasping.

Akrasia

prawnsambo wrote: »

A fight broke out at the Conservative Party Conference and an MP has been arrested apparently. The 1922 committee treasurer is reportedly the one arrested. Is this a metaphor for where the UK is right now?

Last week at the Labour conference the tories revelled in a little bit of political infighting. Today, at the Tory conference and there was an actual fight involving a senior member of the party and a sitting MP...

The question they're all asking themselves, is, how will they manage to somehow make this Corbyn's fault?

Kermit.de.frog

This is absolutely delusional.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1179027851867295745

Of course they want to deal with a smaller country directly so they can impose their will.

CelticRambler

farmchoice wrote: »

i feel the lib dems are playing their hand badly at the moment, they are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. this terror of being seen to support corbyn as an interim leader to avoid a crash out is short sighted

Are you sure it's the Lib Dems being short-sighted? Poll after poll shows that Boris Johnson still enjoys a higher "satisfaction rating" amongst the electorate than Jeremy Corbyn, despite Corbyn mostly keeping his nose clean (apart from the odd anti-semite allegation) and Johnson being shown up for a lying, cheating, funds-diverting, constitution-ripping, alleged sex-pest.

If the British Public have been indoctrinated to hate the Labour [Champagne-Socialists-Will-Steal-Your-Soul-Communist] Party almost as much as they've been taught to hate the EU, how is it "short-sighted" and a mistake or the Lib Dems to not tie themselves to his leadership. They were burnt badly by going into coalition with the Tories; do you not think they deserve some credit for treading very carefully now ... especially when they don't have to do anything just yet?

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is absolutely delusional.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1179027851867295745

Of course they want to deal with a smaller country directly so they can impose their will.

If it was actually a UK - Ireland bilateral issue, it could probably be sorted out relatively easily.

It's the fact that it is the UK - EU Single Market frontier where all the problems lie.

prawnsambo

farmchoice wrote: »

true, i feel the lib dems are playing their hand badly at the moment, they are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. this terror of being seen to support corbyn as an interim leader to avoid a crash out is short sighted, IMO they will only prosper if they try and rise above the usual fault lines of British politics and with this they are only playing into the old stereotypes.

Swinson in not in an electoral position to be making such sweeping demands, she had damn all Mp's compared to the snp let alone labour, yet she sees fit to try to dictate the policy of the opposition.

There's no actual need for all this posturing about a GNU and putative PM for it anyway. Johnson's government is in a minority and can basically be a glove puppet for parliament. He has to ask how high when they say jump and it's wonderful to think that the Tories are reduced to this. So he'll be sent off to Brussels to get an extension or he'll go to jail. He'll be told when to have an election and he'll be told when to dissolve parliament. What do they need a GNU for?

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is this the Priti who suggested that Britain should starve Ireland into submission?

I'll preface this by saying that I don't think Patel is a very nice person, and that she strikes me as the mascot of the Conservatives' lurch to the right. However, I don't remember her saying that the UK should starve Ireland. I know what quote people are getting that from, but it's been subjected to some Chinese whispers.

She said that it would be worth reminding the EU in negotiations that in the event of a no-deal, Ireland's current supply chains would be disrupted, which is true. The hurt would come from the UK simply observing its newfound trading relationship with the EU, not from going above and beyond.

I only point this out because if we let ourselves go with the hyperbole, we become as bad as the Brexiteers.

Enzokk

I don't see any plan or even a hint of genius that will help the UK at the Tory Conference. We know that the reason the backstop became such an issue was Theresa May and her red lines which made the discussions around those issues toxic. So what does Priti Patel do? She draws them nice and thick right down the center.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1179061961071501313?s=20

I am starting to hope Cummings is the evil genius that will outfox us and will get great deal for the UK, as it would mean very little disruption, but when you see the "talent" on display that is the government then you cannot help but conclude it is all a myth and we are in for a hard time.

[Deleted User]

I'm watching her speech now. It's just absurd. At least plenty in the crowd look uncomfortable.

farmchoice

CelticRambler wrote: »

Are you sure it's the Lib Dems being short-sighted? Poll after poll shows that Boris Johnson still enjoys a higher "satisfaction rating" amongst the electorate than Jeremy Corbyn, despite Corbyn mostly keeping his nose clean (apart from the odd anti-semite allegation) and Johnson being shown up for a lying, cheating, funds-diverting, constitution-ripping, alleged sex-pest.

If the British Public have been indoctrinated to hate the Labour [Champagne-Socialists-Will-Steal-Your-Soul-Communist] Party almost as much as they've been taught to hate the EU, how is it "short-sighted" and a mistake or the Lib Dems to not tie themselves to his leadership. They were burnt badly by going into coalition with the Tories; do you not think they deserve some credit for treading very carefully now ... especially when they don't have to do anything just yet?

well they have presented themselves as the anti brexit party who will do anything to save Britain from a disastrous crash out brexit and their recent increase in support seems to be a direct result of this.
they now have the opportunity to support a GNU (government of national unity) to unseat boris and place an alternative in situ to agree an extension and take matters forward to an election in an orderly manner.
corbyn as the leader of the main opposition party is on a democratic basis if nothing else the most entitled.
the lib dems have refused to countenance this, even discuss it and this is very much a party political position to take, so after all this talk of the opposition coming together to stop a crash out when it came to it they were frightened of losing potential votes more then they were committed to stopping Johnson.

Zubeneschamali

Injuryprone wrote: »

I'm sorry if this is old ground that's been gone over before, but how are they going to end freedom of movement of people if they have an open border in NI.

They don't plan to stop people and check visas at the border, that was never their plan. For enforcement they are relying on the Hostile Environment stuff:

They will oblige employers and landlords to ask for "Papers please" before hiring anyone or renting a room - and to report anyone dodgy to the authorities.

There will be more of the Home Office "Feck off home before we catch you" campaigns, with deportations common.

This will make for an increasingly xenophobic society, with mass suspicion of foreigners, black and brown people, people with funny accents etc.

Combine this with a deep recession after No Deal, and they won't have to worry about immigrants anymore - they'll have food rotting on farms unpicked and wards closed in hospitals for lack of staff from cleaners through porters, nurses, doctors and consultants as people give up on England as a bad lot.

And they will be very pleased with themselves.

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm watching her speech now. It's just absurd. At least plenty in the crowd look uncomfortable.

One man looked to be asleep in the crowd