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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Gaoth Laidir

Cristian Unimportant Starch wrote: »

Is that 2 am Irish time? I've to drive a big van from Limerick to Dublin at 1am Friday morning and it might be a scary experience if this bollox is blowing about..

Times in Meteociel charts are French time, so 2 am is 1 am Irish time (00Z).

irishgeo

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Big upgrades from both gfs and icon. They have both now gone for the undercut and the euros now look like the winner
GAME ON!!ðŸ˜…

Can we have that in English and I don't like to see people get excited about storms. It's in bad taste.

HighLine

irishgeo wrote: »

Can we have that in English and I don't like to see people get excited about storms. It's in bad taste.

Perhaps you wondered in here inadvertently but this is a weather forum.

pad199207

irishgeo wrote: »

Can we have that in English and I don't like to see people get excited about storms. It's in bad taste.

It’s a weather enthusiasts forum. No bad taste here in folks getting excited for storms.

Kermit.de.frog

irishgeo wrote: »

Can we have that in English and I don't like to see people get excited about storms. It's in bad taste.

Nah.

Bring on the full force of mother nature I say!

sjb25

Cristian Unimportant Starch wrote: »

Is that 2 am Irish time? I've to drive a big van from Limerick to Dublin at 1am Friday morning and it might be a scary experience if this bollox is blowing about..

Throw couple of half inch blocks in the back to hold you down

Supercell

Will my wheely bins be blown over by this on Thursday, I'm highly concerned, should I start making plans?

Gaoth Laidir

The Portuguese Met have issued the following warning for the Azores:

Western islands:

Southeast veering northwest, gusts of 190 kph, but a 40% chance of >200 kph. Heavy rain, significant wave height 10-15 metres but maximum height up to 25 metres.

Central islands:

Gusts up to 160 kph, heavy rain, swh 9-12 with max waves 22 metres.

Eastern islands:

Gusts up to 100 kph, swh 7-9 metres.

Grupo Ocidental - vento sueste rodando para noroeste com rajadas na ordem dos 190 km/h (com uma probabilidade de 40% de a rajada máxima ser superior a 200 km/h), chuva por vezes FORTE e ondas de sul, passando a sudoeste com altura significativa entre 10 a 15 metros, podendo a altura máxima de onda atingir os 25 metros.

Grupo Central - vento sudoeste com rajadas até 160 km/h, períodos de chuva e ondas de sudoeste passando a oeste com altura significativa entre 9 a 12 metros, podendo a altura máxima de onda atingir os 22 metros.

Grupo Oriental - vento sul rodando para oeste com rajadas até 100 km/h e ondas de sudoeste com altura significativa 7 a 9 metros.

Snow Garden

Supercell wrote: »

Will my wheely bins be blown over by this on Thursday, I'm highly concerned, should I start making plans?

At this early point, you should start planning a life where you have to live inside that wheely bin. Start by getting into it and seeing how many loaves of Brennans bread you can fit in beside you.

Gaoth Laidir

irishgeo wrote: »

Ahh yes easy spot the people from the east who don't have to put up with it. Yes the guy whose comment was Ireland has dodged a bullet except the North west really takes the biscuit.

The same guys who are hanging out on the edge of cliffs or on rocks by the sea in a storm unaware of the danger they are in.

I suppose you all be just excited should the storm bring a few deaths as well. But you won't care because you all safe in your wind free house's in Dublin.

Not after the curry I had last night.

The cold front to the storm's NW is now evident

20191001.1000.goes16.x.wv1km.13LLORENZO.85kts-962mb-327N-405W.100pc.jpg

20191001.1000.goes16.x.wv1km.13LLORENZO.85kts-962mb-327N-405W.100pc.jpg

GooglePlus

irishgeo wrote: »

Ahh yes easy spot the people from the east who don't have to put up with it. Yes the guy whose comment was Ireland has dodged a bullet except the North west really takes the biscuit.

The same guys who are hanging out on the edge of cliffs or on rocks by the sea in a storm unaware of the danger they are in.

I suppose you all be just excited should the storm bring a few deaths as well. But you won't care because you all safe in your wind free house's in Dublin.

So you want people to be less passionate about a passion of theirs, as it's upsetting you for some reason?

piplip87

irishgeo wrote: »

Ahh yes easy spot the people from the east who don't have to put up with it. Yes the guy whose comment was Ireland has dodged a bullet except the North west really takes the biscuit.

The same guys who are hanging out on the edge of cliffs or on rocks by the sea in a storm unaware of the danger they are in.

I suppose you all be just excited should the storm bring a few deaths as well. But you won't care because you all safe in your wind free house's in Dublin.

So are they hanging out on the edge of Thier cliffs or are they in Thier houses in Dublin ?

What about a heatwave ? Do you excited about a heatwave ? That could also cause a couple of deaths ?

What point are you making ? People are not allowed to get excited by a storm that may or may not happen because it may be dangerous ?

endainoz

I live I north Clare, we get the brunt of most of Atlantic storms and I know what it's like to deal with huge swells and high winds. I love to see the power of nature in it's full force. Obviously it's not good when you can have damaging gusts where people can get badly hurt or worse and it can be a pain when I have outside work to do with the farm during this weather.

But we know how to take precautions around here, I love to follow these forums during a weather event and the vast majority of posters here know well what they are talking about. Weather is a favourite pasttime of ours around here!

Snow Garden

irishgeo wrote: »

Ahh yes easy spot the people from the east who don't have to put up with it. Yes the guy whose comment was Ireland has dodged a bullet except the North west really takes the biscuit.

The same guys who are hanging out on the edge of cliffs or on rocks by the sea in a storm unaware of the danger they are in.

I suppose you all be just excited should the storm bring a few deaths as well. But you won't care because you all safe in your wind free house's in Dublin.

I live in Connemara. Quit the ghoulish virtue signalling. I cannot help loving big storms but I will be very well prepared and I will help in the cleanup.

lleti

Any chance of a red warning for Dublin?

o1s1n

irishgeo wrote: »

Ahh yes easy spot the people from the east who don't have to put up with it. Yes the guy whose comment was Ireland has dodged a bullet except the North west really takes the biscuit.

The same guys who are hanging out on the edge of cliffs or on rocks by the sea in a storm unaware of the danger they are in.

I suppose you all be just excited should the storm bring a few deaths as well. But you won't care because you all safe in your wind free house's in Dublin.

Really looking forward to checking in on this forum once the storm hits. Always a fascinating read.

Snow Garden

lleti wrote: »

Any chance of a red warning for Dublin?

Very unlikely.

Loughc

lleti wrote: »

Any chance of a red warning for Dublin?

All signs point to no really.

JCX BXC

Met Éireann have issued an advisory in advance of Storm Lorenzo:

Met &#201 wrote: »

Status: Yellow
There it a high probability that Storm Lorenzo will track close to or over Ireland later on Thursday and early Friday, giving high seas, severe winds and heavy rain. <br>Warnings will be issued Wednesday morning.
Weather Advisory for Ireland
There it a high probability that Storm Lorenzo will track close to or over Ireland later on Thursday and early Friday, giving high seas, severe winds and heavy rain.
Warnings will be issued Wednesday morning.

Valid: Thursday 03 October 2019 12:01 to Friday 04 October 2019 12:00

Interesting that they say warnings will be issued tomorrow morning.

Loughc

JCX BXC wrote: »

Met reann have issued an advisory in advance of Storm Lorenzo:

Interesting that they say warnings will be issued tomorrow morning.

Most likely yellow warnings.

JCX BXC

Loughc wrote: »

Most likely yellow warnings.

True, but I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see orange for counties Clare to Donegal. Hard to know yet though, with so much uncertainty still existing about the track of Lorenzo, even only 2 days out.

Oasis1974

endainoz wrote: »

I live I north Clare, we get the brunt of most of Atlantic storms and I know what it's like to deal with huge swells and high winds. I love to see the power of nature in it's full force. Obviously it's not good when you can have damaging gusts where people can get badly hurt or worse and it can be a pain when I have outside work to do with the farm during this weather.

But we know how to take precautions around here, I love to follow these forums during a weather event and the vast majority of posters here know well what they are talking about. Weather is a favourite pasttime of ours around here!

If the cows get blown over by the hurricane on there sides let say are they able to get up themselves or do they need help that's a serious question?

JanuarySnowstor

Orange a certainty for the Northwest as a minimum. We don't get all this hype for yellow warnings. The gfs and icon have upgraded a fair bit this morning.
I'm thinking nationwide yellow with a red coastal warning for west/northwest

ZX7R

JCX BXC wrote: »

Met Éireann have issued an advisory in advance of Storm Lorenzo:

Interesting that they say warnings will be issued tomorrow morning.

Not really interesting,they will only is warmings 24/48 hours in advance in a situation like this normal protocol.

Daz_

Oasis1974 wrote: »

If the cows get blown over by the hurricane on there sides let say are they able to get up themselves or do they need help that's a serious question?

if this isn't a piss take then i don't know what is!

Gaoth Laidir

Looks like a general chat thread may be needed at this stage...

Smashmouth

Oasis1974 wrote: »

If the cows get blown over by the hurricane on there sides let say are they able to get up themselves or do they need help that's a serious question?

The fire brigade has to be called to get them up again.

JanuarySnowstor

The arpege now also going for it. We have full model agreement now in the storm crossing Ireland. My experience is these ex hurricanes pack an extra punch. Time will tell.
As for the model battle you'd have to say the euros trounced the gfs

73bc61lyohr0mu

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The arpege now also going for it. We have full model agreement now in the storm crossing Ireland. My experience is these ex hurricanes pack an extra punch. Time will tell.
As for the model battle you'd have to say the euros trounced the gfs

Excellent. I love a good storm.

[Deleted User]

lleti wrote: »

Any chance of a red warning for Dublin?

Yep.

*****RED WARNING FOR DUBLIN*****

There ya go. Tell your boss a fella on the internet told you.