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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Andrew00

6 o clock news....lorenzo is main headline

igCorcaigh

pauldry wrote: »

Was wondering how a deep low could remain deep when it hits the colder waters of our Atlantic

Its the jet

So Lorenzo leaves the warm waters of the Azores and heads North into the cold Atlantic but the jet picks it up then and it loses less of its intensity. So look at the jet forecast and thats a likely track for Lorenzo

Whats more likely though it that no one will know for 60 to 70 hours

Yes, it's the jet stream, but high pressure on the North is squeezing it too I think.

It's like predicting which side of a balloon will balloon out under pressure, if you know what I mean.

Maybe a butterfly in the azores might flap its wings.

thomasm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just a reminder for people who might be worried, in NHC-speak, "Storm Force" means anything from gale-force (34 knots) up, so storm force on a chart does not necessarily mean something very strong and may not include what we would call Storm Force 10 or 11. Plus their numbers are 1-minute averages, which are about 10% higher than the standard 10-minute averages that we would be used to and that Met Éireann use. Bottom line, don't panic when you see the chart.

Why is the a little kink for Waterford, Kilkenny and Wexford in the maps taking them out of the path

sdanseo

pauldry wrote: »

Was wondering how a deep low could remain deep when it hits the colder waters of our Atlantic

Its the jet

So Lorenzo leaves the warm waters of the Azores and heads North into the cold Atlantic but the jet picks it up then and it loses less of its intensity. So look at the jet forecast and thats a likely track for Lorenzo

Whats more likely though it that no one will know for 60 to 70 hours

Ophelia was perhaps 970mb at landfall. I'm sure Sryan or Gaoth will correct me on the exact figure before long

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2017&maand=10&dag=16&uur=000&var=1&map=1&model=avn

Debby in 1961 was probably a slight bit weaker having been less intense and peaking at 961mb in the mid Atlantic.

While everyone will think of Ophelia first, Debbie's is the more similar track here and by all accounts was the worst of the two storms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)#/media/File:Debbie_1961_track.png

Andrew00 wrote: »

6 o clock news....lorenzo is main headline

Pathetic excuses for journalists. But then it's RTÉ so nobody could even pretend to be surprised.

Storm 10

Nothing wrong warning people in advance if does not happen happy days fair play to them

4068ac1elhodqr

No harm sticking it on the news, even when they very clearly mention a high level of uncertainty about it (currently).

If the supermarket shelves become bare of bread & bottled water on both Tues & Wed,
it means the shelve stackers can do a couple of full overnight restacks, for the last second panic buyer surge at 08:00 Thurs.

jimmynokia

Dublin Live strike again
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/hurricane-lorenzo-meteireann-weather-ireland-17003213

r93kaey5p2izun

I'm an avid weather watcher but rarely post - following this from the start as this could be the first big storm since I returned to outdoor work last year. Thanks for all the updates here. I'm really surprised at RTE news this evening hyping it up when it's still so uncertain. Interesting to watch how it all develops either way.

igCorcaigh

sdanseo wrote: »

Ophelia was around 970mb at landfall.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2017&maand=10&dag=16&uur=000&var=1&map=1&model=avn

Debby in 1961 was probably a slight bit weaker having been less intense and peaking at 961mb in the mid Atlantic.

While everyone will think of Ophelia first, Debbie's is the more similar track here and by all accounts was the worst of the two storms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)#/media/File:Debbie_1961_track.png

I know I asked this before, and I know Ophelia wasn't technically a hurricane when it hit us...

But the wind speed of Ophelia were equivalent to a hurricane in Cork when it hit? I remember someone saying it was equivalent to a Cat 2 maybe?

Just always wanted to safely witness a hurricane, checking if Ophelia would be a comparable experience (in Cork anyway) ...

Mental Mickey

According to the News, it could veer right on the west coast, and head straight over Ireland....?

pad199207

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

SleetAndSnow

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I know I asked this before, and I know Ophelia wasn't technically a hurricane when it hit us...

But the wind speed of Ophelia were equivalent to a hurricane in Cork when it hit? I remember someone saying it was equivalent to a Cat 2 maybe?

Just always wanted to safely witness a hurricane, checking if Ophelia would be a comparable experience...

a gusts of 84kts (155km/h) was recorded at roches point, cork airport had 126km/h (before loss of power) is all i could find for the station.

Looking at it though, the track was almost right over us with the 'purple' marker on the NOAA graph covering most of ireland, as opposed to the current one. Lorenzo wont be like ophelia at all i think, but depends on path and if it can intensify again

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

I know this has been asked before, but do ME have access to models that the public don't?

igCorcaigh

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

a gusts of 84kts (155km/h) was recorded at roches point, cork airport had 126km/h (before loss of power) is all i could find for the station.

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

dublinman1990

Evelyn Cusack will be on the 6.1 news after the break folks to give us updates on Lorenzo.

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

They played it very safe during Ophelia, and as I have said before I would rather they did that than anything else. Three people died during a period where generally speaking everyone was told be be indoors. It's not unreasonable to suggest that could have been higher had the warning not been in place.
It's a questiuon of balance between causing undue panic & wrapping us all in bubble wrap vs. being complacent.

I think the thread in general has been underestimating the GFS. Latest track, like this morning, pulls the storm much closer to us and then fishtails back over Northern Ireland givign mean winds certainly into Orange Warning territory for coastal parts (again, red warning speeds right on the coasts but not warranting red for those entire counties).

84-602UK.GIF?30-12

dsmythy

Storm 10 wrote: »

Nothing wrong warning people in advance if does not happen happy days fair play to them

How's about tomorrow's 6 o clock news when we might actually know what's likely. It could still spin off west and give us a near warm day.

*generic great day for the drying joke*

Gaoth Laidir

thomasm wrote: »

Why is the a little kink for Waterford, Kilkenny and Wexford in the maps taking them out of the path

Friction over land.

sryanbruen

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

Roche’s Point had a max 10 minute mean wind speed of 115 kph which was a new October record for Ireland. Big analysis on Ophelia here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/OpheliaReport.pdf

Mental Mickey

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

pad199207

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Jet stream

GooglePlus

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Think she was referring to the models.

dsmythy

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Thats two existing areas which it might hook up with and be led a certain way as a result.

sdanseo

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

GooglePlus wrote: »

Think she was referring to the models.

pad199207 wrote: »

Jet stream

She was saying that the Jet Stream (westerly flow of high level, high speed air across the Atlantic) is splitting into two streams as it often does. The question over the track is to do with which of those it "hitches a ride on"

Fair dues to Evelyn I thought she explained it very well. Yes there are more charismatic weather presenters out there but she got the main facts across and did look quite concerned at the possibility of a storm but not of a hurricane.

JanuarySnowstor

She explained it well.
Always had a soft spot for Evelyn an exceptional forecaster I'm sure most would agree. She was actually a loss for us when she got promoted and left the TV broadcasts

igCorcaigh

sryanbruen wrote: »

Roche’s Point had a max 10 minute mean wind speed of 115 kph which was a new October record for Ireland. Big analysis on Ophelia here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/OpheliaReport.pdf

Cheers for that.

Just below an equivalent of Cat 1 then.
Wow, I can't even imagine what a real hurricane must be like.

It never looks too bad on the Weather Channel.

igCorcaigh

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

She explained it well.
Always had a soft spot for Evelyn an exceptional forecaster I'm sure most would agree. She was actually a loss for us when she got promoted and left the TV broadcasts

OT, but I love our weather forecasters.
Eagle is a loss.

Delighted when RTE scrapped their plans to replace them with idiot TV presenters years ago.

Sorry, OT.

US2

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

I don't think it was the strongest you've whitnessed. Syran has a nice chart with windspeeds from storms over recent years, Ophelia was beaten in many areas I think.

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

That thought keeps coming to my mind too...

igCorcaigh

US2 wrote: »

I don't think it was the strongest you've whitnessed. Syran has a nice chart with windspeeds from storms over recent years, Ophelia was beaten in many areas I think.

Just talking about in my area of Cork city.
I remember Darwin too, but it didn't seem so bad to me. Localised, I guess, which is always the case with these things.

Wasn't Darwin the one that took the roof off of the train station?