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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Mental Mickey

Missed the jaysus forecast. What's the latest?

lcasey90

Regardless of the outcome I'm finding this interesting seeing how our weather systems interact with each other. It's also interesting to see how well the models can work when there is so many variables involved

TTLF

When’s the ECM run out?

irishgeo

Snow Garden wrote: »

Interesting. This could be like Storm Ali which was very strong in Galway/Mayo. It hit hard between 8am and 11am.
The damage was made worse by the fact the trees still had leaves. I saw 2 trees uprooted on the 20 min drive to work but there were many more already fallen.

ahh yes the drive home after nightshift was fun that morning, took ages. Most interesting thing was someone coal bunker flying across stone walls in fields and then across the n17. luckily i had seen it coming.

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

I think the Met and the other Govt Depts concerned with civil protection are concious of the accusations of crying wolf over previous weather alerts and that rather than feed into that tabloid narrative they will hold fire on advance warnings until they have model resolution to a high confidence and can assemble the National Emergency Coordination Group to orchestrate a concrete warning level at 24 to 36 hours notice with certain advice to schools, workplaces and homeowners.

I should declare I personally don't think they did cry wolf in relation to notable events in recent years, they used the best data available and certain people in the media and public life need to get some perspective about the science of this stuff.

Oneiric 3

Pretty crap quality gif animation here, but shows all the complications that forecasters and the models have to face regarding Lorenzo at the moment, from that large trough exiting Canada, the disorganized jet stream over the N Atlantic and ridge to the NW that doesn't know what to do with itself.
Chart is based on the ICON 6hr analysis + 5 hour forecasts for the last couple of days (may take a whileen to load)

igCorcaigh

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ophelia was the stongest storm I ever witnessed in Cork anyway. It was extraordinary in both strength and how long it lasted. I appreciate it may have been local event but have no doubt it was fierce in Cork

It was scary AF!

We were off work on the Monday morning.
I sat inside enjoying the storm, but had all the curtains closed for fear of something coming through the window.

Imagine being outside in it!

JanuarySnowstor

Ophelia was the stongest storm I ever witnessed in Cork anyway. It was extraordinary in both strength and how long it lasted. I appreciate it may have been local event but have no doubt it was fierce in Cork

igCorcaigh

US2 wrote: »

I don't think it was the strongest you've whitnessed. Syran has a nice chart with windspeeds from storms over recent years, Ophelia was beaten in many areas I think.

Just talking about in my area of Cork city.
I remember Darwin too, but it didn't seem so bad to me. Localised, I guess, which is always the case with these things.

Wasn't Darwin the one that took the roof off of the train station?

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

That thought keeps coming to my mind too...

US2

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

I don't think it was the strongest you've whitnessed. Syran has a nice chart with windspeeds from storms over recent years, Ophelia was beaten in many areas I think.

igCorcaigh

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

She explained it well.
Always had a soft spot for Evelyn an exceptional forecaster I'm sure most would agree. She was actually a loss for us when she got promoted and left the TV broadcasts

OT, but I love our weather forecasters.
Eagle is a loss.

Delighted when RTE scrapped their plans to replace them with idiot TV presenters years ago.

Sorry, OT.

igCorcaigh

sryanbruen wrote: »

Roche’s Point had a max 10 minute mean wind speed of 115 kph which was a new October record for Ireland. Big analysis on Ophelia here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/OpheliaReport.pdf

Cheers for that.

Just below an equivalent of Cat 1 then.
Wow, I can't even imagine what a real hurricane must be like.

It never looks too bad on the Weather Channel.

JanuarySnowstor

She explained it well.
Always had a soft spot for Evelyn an exceptional forecaster I'm sure most would agree. She was actually a loss for us when she got promoted and left the TV broadcasts

sdanseo

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

GooglePlus wrote: »

Think she was referring to the models.

pad199207 wrote: »

Jet stream

She was saying that the Jet Stream (westerly flow of high level, high speed air across the Atlantic) is splitting into two streams as it often does. The question over the track is to do with which of those it "hitches a ride on"

Fair dues to Evelyn I thought she explained it very well. Yes there are more charismatic weather presenters out there but she got the main facts across and did look quite concerned at the possibility of a storm but not of a hurricane.

dsmythy

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Thats two existing areas which it might hook up with and be led a certain way as a result.

GooglePlus

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Think she was referring to the models.

pad199207

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

Jet stream

Mental Mickey

Evelyn Cusack just said something about it splitting in 2 with one storm heading towards Iceland and the other over us.

Correct me if I've heard that incorrectly.

sryanbruen

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

Roche’s Point had a max 10 minute mean wind speed of 115 kph which was a new October record for Ireland. Big analysis on Ophelia here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/OpheliaReport.pdf

Gaoth Laidir

thomasm wrote: »

Why is the a little kink for Waterford, Kilkenny and Wexford in the maps taking them out of the path

Friction over land.

dsmythy

Storm 10 wrote: »

Nothing wrong warning people in advance if does not happen happy days fair play to them

How's about tomorrow's 6 o clock news when we might actually know what's likely. It could still spin off west and give us a near warm day.

*generic great day for the drying joke*

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

They played it very safe during Ophelia, and as I have said before I would rather they did that than anything else. Three people died during a period where generally speaking everyone was told be be indoors. It's not unreasonable to suggest that could have been higher had the warning not been in place.
It's a questiuon of balance between causing undue panic & wrapping us all in bubble wrap vs. being complacent.

I think the thread in general has been underestimating the GFS. Latest track, like this morning, pulls the storm much closer to us and then fishtails back over Northern Ireland givign mean winds certainly into Orange Warning territory for coastal parts (again, red warning speeds right on the coasts but not warranting red for those entire counties).

84-602UK.GIF?30-12

dublinman1990

Evelyn Cusack will be on the 6.1 news after the break folks to give us updates on Lorenzo.

igCorcaigh

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

a gusts of 84kts (155km/h) was recorded at roches point, cork airport had 126km/h (before loss of power) is all i could find for the station.

Oh. Thank you. And they were gusts.

Sustained winds for a Cat 1:

74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

And Ophelia was the strongest windstorm I've experienced. A real hurricane must be something all together different.

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

I know this has been asked before, but do ME have access to models that the public don't?

SleetAndSnow

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I know I asked this before, and I know Ophelia wasn't technically a hurricane when it hit us...

But the wind speed of Ophelia were equivalent to a hurricane in Cork when it hit? I remember someone saying it was equivalent to a Cat 2 maybe?

Just always wanted to safely witness a hurricane, checking if Ophelia would be a comparable experience...

a gusts of 84kts (155km/h) was recorded at roches point, cork airport had 126km/h (before loss of power) is all i could find for the station.

Looking at it though, the track was almost right over us with the 'purple' marker on the NOAA graph covering most of ireland, as opposed to the current one. Lorenzo wont be like ophelia at all i think, but depends on path and if it can intensify again

pad199207

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

Mental Mickey

According to the News, it could veer right on the west coast, and head straight over Ireland....?

igCorcaigh

sdanseo wrote: »

Ophelia was around 970mb at landfall.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2017&maand=10&dag=16&uur=000&var=1&map=1&model=avn

Debby in 1961 was probably a slight bit weaker having been less intense and peaking at 961mb in the mid Atlantic.

While everyone will think of Ophelia first, Debbie's is the more similar track here and by all accounts was the worst of the two storms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)#/media/File:Debbie_1961_track.png

I know I asked this before, and I know Ophelia wasn't technically a hurricane when it hit us...

But the wind speed of Ophelia were equivalent to a hurricane in Cork when it hit? I remember someone saying it was equivalent to a Cat 2 maybe?

Just always wanted to safely witness a hurricane, checking if Ophelia would be a comparable experience (in Cork anyway) ...