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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Comments

Gaoth Laidir

Interesting that the UKMO are completely disregarding their own model when generating the FAX charts, instead favouring something more like the ECM/NHC official.

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs has been exceptional in this event with every run for the last 2 days taking the storm West of Ireland. The other 2 have come kicking and screaming over to gfs thinking this morning. Interesting how Met Eireann backed the ecm and showed the undercut and even noaa were slow to acknowledge the gfs could be right.
Let they be no doubt who won this model battle and keep in mind the Icon is also performing very well of late

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The gfs has been exceptional in this event with every run for the last 2 days taking the storm West of Ireland. The other 2 have come kicking and screaming over to gfs thinking this morning. Interesting how Met Eireann backed the ecm and showed the undercut and even noaa were slow to acknowledge the gfs could be right.
Let they be no doubt who won this model battle and keep in mind the Icon is also performing very well of late

Game over now?!

M.T. Cranium

Too soon to declare any outcome certain, although the majority of guidance shows a near miss to the west of Ireland. Expecting some better model consensus by tonight or 00z runs for Tuesday morning.

GoneHome

munsterlegend wrote: »

Game over now?!

Not necessarily, could all change again, still three/four days out at this stage.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest microwave scan ar around 5 am this morning. Current intensity 90 kts.

munsterlegend

GoneHome wrote: »

Not necessarily, could all change again, still three/four days out at this stage.

Yeah I know was just joking with JS who said game over yesterday morning!

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Interesting that the UKMO are completely disregarding their own model when generating the FAX charts, instead favouring something more like the ECM/NHC official.

They are not. That is the UKMO 00z, raw.

There is a risk of a serious event affecting Ireland toward the end of the week.

It is too soon to be calling solutions.

jirafa

'Impossible to predict' how Hurricane Lorenzo will hit Ireland

The Head of Forecasting at Met Éireann has said it is impossible to predict how Hurricane Lorenzo will affect Ireland, but the storm's trajectory should become clearer over the next 48 hours.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0930/1079067-hurricane-lorenzo-ireland/

Jpmarn

Until we get a consensus of all the models it is still uncertain wether the storm is coming at us or not. Even if Lorenzo avoid us and stay west of us it is going to energise the whole North Atlantic region. Expect a lot of windy weather next week but nothing too severe.

Snow Garden

Radio 1 weather said it would probably be a miss to the west. Unlikely to make landfall. The track might change so one to watch.

Villain

ECMWF chart update on Lorenzo

ps2png-gorax-blue-001-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-qOuGFz.png

Graces7

Jpmarn wrote: »

Until we get a consensus of all the models it is still uncertain wether the storm is coming at us or not. Even if Lorenzo avoid us and stay west of us it is going to energise the whole North Atlantic region. Expect a lot of windy weather next week but nothing too severe.

very expressive word is that..

pauldry

Uncertain is also a dangerous weather term

jirafa

A mention of Lorenzo on UK Met Office - Monday morning forecast.towards end of video.

Monday morning forecast - 30/09/19
30th Sept - National weather forecast presented by Alex Burkill

Oneiric 3

Everything spins.

Oneiric 3

Graces7 wrote: »

Oh dear! There go my supplies! Worry not as well stocked for just such an event

Whatever comes, ready here, but would rather it didn't. and very grateful for the forewarning. THANK YOU!

west mayo offshore island....

No need to be concerned yet Graces7. Pretty much everything on here is just theory and idea tossing at this stage.

Reati

Graces7 wrote: »

very expressive word is that..

Someone works for a American MN using words like that! :P

Graces7

pauldry wrote: »

Uncertain is also a dangerous weather term

Hoping they are just covering their backs... such a volatile situation - another emotive term :rolleyes:

Gaoth Laidir

One thing's for sure...it should be very mild on Friday! Some scope for some large Föhn warming north of mountains.

Graces7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

No need to be concerned yet Graces7. Pretty much everything on here is just theory and idea tossing at this stage.

Oh not concerned in that way. What happens happens. Just wait and see time.

Too used to the gales out here to worry but just nice to know a few hours ahead.

And nothing I can do! Just hunker down and wait it out.

The only storm that rattled me recently was Callum. It was a hellion. The road near Belmullet was destroyed; yet everyone here downplayed it as it was a west coast event. Offshore and on the very edge.

Fascinating the way though the forecasters are being so evasive!

highdef

Reati wrote: »

Someone works for a American MN using words like that! :P

Surely it would've been spelled as "energize" if that was the case. :P

Storm 10

If it does happen to arrive as a storm going to be a lot of Coastal flooding we currently have the highest tides of the year in Galway that are topping over the quay walls and it's flat calm

Widdershins

Surprised Darwin hasn't been mentioned much here. Where I live it was epic. Trees dropping left right and centre, literally. I had to drive for a family emergency and they were falling like dominoes along the main road to town, the only road that hadn't been blocked or officially closed around here. Very surreal sight.

Sorry, will let ye get back to business

The Mig

Should I go for the bread and milk now for the week just in case?

Gaoth Laidir

NHC update.

Currently 90 knots. Forecast track shifted a little west and further away from Ireland and intensity slightly higher as a result. Extratropical and 65 kts at 52N 30W at 06Z Friday morning.

Macy0161

jirafa wrote: »

The Head of Forecasting at Met Éireann has said it is impossible to predict how Hurricane Lorenzo will affect Ireland, but the storm's trajectory should become clearer over the next 48 hours.

Evelyn Cusack did well, with the presenter trying to hype it up in a very tabloid way (imo). Pulled it back to the message that things will become clearer over coming days.

dacogawa

Moved back a bit East at the very last moment on the new GFS run.

gfs-0-84.png?6

igCorcaigh

Sorry, but what does the colour indicate on those charts? Air pressure?

SleetAndSnow

First time in a while GFS has moved it back now. Nothing is over yet