Rjd2 wrote: » Good post this.:) However I don't believe their is any deal whatsoever in the works and I don't think he has the numbers no matter if he does. The vocal remainer MPS of the Tory party will vote no, while I don't see him getting many non Tory/Dup voters,,,Skinner, Hoey, Stringer, Flint, Field.... Is that enough? And even then not totally sure of those 5:pac:
schmittel wrote: » Johnsons/Cummings strategy has come off the rails big style, largely because I think they underestimated the ability of the opposition to work together, and now they seem to have doubled down on everything which does not look good! Having said that I still think it's possible Johnson will get a deal done by 31st October, and I think the following has been his strategy all along, i.e I think much of what he have seen so far is design to get get MPs to back down and approve a deal, not to try and make the EU blink. All he has to do is: 1) Get past Tory conference without having to discuss or defend any specifics of whatever deal he is proposing - he has been vague enough and secretive enough so far, that this wont be a problem. 2) Ask the EU to agree to the original WA deal with the customs border down the Irish Sea. The EU will say fine, but only if you can demonstrate how you think you'll get it past the HoC. He'll say sure, I have the largest party, all I have to do is win over those who voted down May's deal. Don't worry my 21 Tory rebels I expelled are voters for a deal. 3) Tell the DUP to back it or he will have a UI border poll in Northern Ireland, and tell them Cummings will be working his 'genius' to spin No Deal or UI, you decide. Under those circumstances DUP will back it. 4) A lot of the hardcore Brexiteer/ERG who voted down Mays deal are now on govt payroll, they will vote as whipped. The resolute Spartans - Mark Francois, hard man Steve Baker et al - will be told 'I expelled Churchill's grandson, and the Father of House from the party, you don't think I won't do the same to you?" No point in grandstanding to your constituents if we will deselect you for the imminent election." They will also vote as whipped. 5) Tell the EU he has his entire party and DUP on board, and presumably rebel Tories who voted for May's deal, and then say whilst this is technically a majority, it does not leave much margin for error in case some of them go rogue. Remind the EU that one of the main reason the May's vote lost 3 times was that Remainer MPs knew they in the absence of a deal there would be an extension. Hence ask the EU to categorically rule out an extension in advance of the vote in the HoC, thereby ensuring the vote in HoC is binary WA or No Deal, rather than WA or extension. If needs be the EU can throw a member state a bung to veto it. Spain springs to mind. They can hold their hands up and say without a current formal government in place we cannot approve an extension, our hands are tied etc. 6) Johnson presents this to HoC and says it is this or No Deal, GE to follow, knock yourself out, either way I am happy. It might sound nonsense, but the EU is nothing if not pragmatic, and the above offers them a way to resolve this mess, preserving the integrity of the single market, the GFA, and allows them to move on. And far as Johnson is concerned, there has been much speculation on this thread as to whether he has some left field legal chicanery with which he can bypass the Benn bill. I think that is nonsense, the reason he is so confident that he will not have to ask for an extension is he believes he can persuade the EU to rule one out before the deadline.
MrMusician18 wrote: » Doesn't he have to ask for an extension or bring back a deal? Surely if he wants no deal he can bring back a deal from the EU that won't pass the Commons. He can then blame the Commons for no deal.
Inquitus wrote: » He needs the ERG, the DUP, the Lab Leavers you mention and some of the Tories who got turfed out of the party. Personally, I don't think this i possible.
woohoo!!! wrote: » They don't want a deal and never have. A brexit with benefits is a great sell but is not deliverable. This is why they're using pre-ref arguments about no deal being a possibility. 3 plus years of gaslighting with previous 40 years of anti EU guff. They see the dangers of the opposition getting organised and are throwing tantrums. They'd rather see the country burn.
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » As far as i know if he doesn't ask for for an extension formally nor come back with a deal the uk automatically exits the EU.
MrMusician18 wrote: » What happens though if he comes back with a deal that is unacceptable to the Commons?
murphaph wrote: » Any further extensions should be on our (EU) terms. They should align with EU budget cycles and be much longer so companies and people can plan more than 3 months into the future.
GM228 wrote: » Letter sent from the GLA to Johnson today:-https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1177676558795968512?s=19
SeaBreezes wrote: » Just curious can anyone list what preparations have been made in Ireland for Brexit? I read about 2 new ferries and that aer lingus will carry belly cargo. Also that Lidl and aldi have moved warehouses here. Anyone know of other preparations?
woohoo!!! wrote: » Anecdotally I'm hearing some busineeses have very little to no work lined up for the next 2 months. Developers and investors are holding off the building projects. Warehouses are full to the brim. All down to the uncertainty caused by Westminster. I think we're going to see a contraction in the economy and wider than the directly affected sectors.
AllForIt wrote: » In the same week that Labour Party MP Paula Sherriff calls on the PM to use less inflammatory language such as 'surrender' (well known dog whistle call to rioting and of course deeply racist) , her colleague Tom Watson today says on Twitter that "The Torries have become a sinister extremist sect....". Well it's not like anyone would have expected to see consistency in the Labour party these days so I suppose one shouldn't really be in any way surprised.https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1177641878939942913 It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.
greenfield21 wrote: » Support for brexit is still there, no point in another extension now. Just cut them free and hope for the best.
AllForIt wrote: » It seems that if your on the right side of the Brexit argument you can just about say whatever you like and are exempt from feeling thoroughly ashamed of yourself.
Remainers are quick to notice irresponsible language when they are called ‘saboteurs’, traitors’ or ‘enemy of the people’, but some of these same people are less quick to recognise how unacceptable it is to call leavers ‘racists’, ‘fascists’ or supporters of a coup.
schmittel wrote: » Agreed. In the aftermath of the toxic Commons debate Brendan Cox, husband of Jo Cox, wrote an intelligent commentary piece on the current divisive language. I was particularly impressed he of all people had the presence of mind to recognise:https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brendan-cox-hate-filled-language-20291646
