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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Sparko

A man has apparently been arrested in Birmingham for attacking the constituency office of Jess Phillips while shouting fascist.

Just reported on Sky News now.

A Dub in Glasgo

Akabusi wrote: »

With the performance yesterday his great plan was likely to try and goad the opposition into an early election, they rightly haven't fallen for that and if anything he'll have turned off a lot of moderates with his comments on Jo Cox.

Now he will look for an extension, he has no other choice, his simple message will be that he had was forced into it by a parliament who want to go against the people's will.

His promise will be to elect him with a strong majority and he will deliver Brexit no matter what the opposition try.

However the likely outcome of another election is that Johnson will have a lower number of seats than he has now.
In England on one side, the Brexit party will be eating away at him and on the other the Lib Dems will gobble up most of the moderates. I think Labour will perform similar to how it did last time. They will lose votes to the Brexit party in the hard line leave areas but gain some of the moderates to make up for this somewhat.
The Conservatives could end up not winning any seats in Scotland.
The Brexit Party could pick up somewhere around 3 - 5 seats because Johnson failed on the Oct 31st promise and where they don't win them they just dilute the Tory vote.
The Lib Dems gain about 10 - 15 seats, mostly from previously held Conservative seats but also a few Labour.
The DUP will loose 1 if not 2 seats to the Alliance Party, maybe SF could loose one to them as well.

I just don't see where Johnson gets enough votes to get a majority. Most likely in my mind is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and if really needed the SNP but that will come at the price of independence for Scotland.

Not sure I see your optimism

If Labour still perform broadly as before and Lib Dems only gaining 10-15 seats, they will still be behind. The only way it can work is if the SNP are in the equation and they will inisist on a section 30 order to hold an independence referendum in Scotland (not the same thing as independence for Scotland). Swinson has performed verbal gymnastics about mandates and second referendums where most folk see her hypocrisy. she may even lose her seat

J Mysterio

Boris today doubled down on his language to 1922 Committee. What a sonofabitch.

Mr Johnson told a meeting of the influential 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs today that he had no intention of watering down his description of the rebel legislation.

He was rebuked by Commons Speaker John Bercow last night for repeatedly referring to the so-called Benn Act as the 'Surrender Act', prompting howls of derision from opposition MPs.

But Mr Johnson reportedly told his backbenchers that ‘they [Labour] are trying to drive us off the word surrender because they know it is cutting through’.

Source

J Mysterio

Akabusi wrote: »

With the performance yesterday his great plan was likely to try and goad the opposition into an early election, they rightly haven't fallen for that and if anything he'll have turned off a lot of moderates with his comments on Jo Cox.

Now he will look for an extension, he has no other choice, his simple message will be that he had was forced into it by a parliament who want to go against the people's will.

His promise will be to elect him with a strong majority and he will deliver Brexit no matter what the opposition try.

However the likely outcome of another election is that Johnson will have a lower number of seats than he has now.
In England on one side, the Brexit party will be eating away at him and on the other the Lib Dems will gobble up most of the moderates. I think Labour will perform similar to how it did last time. They will lose votes to the Brexit party in the hard line leave areas but gain some of the moderates to make up for this somewhat.
The Conservatives could end up not winning any seats in Scotland.
The Brexit Party could pick up somewhere around 3 - 5 seats because Johnson failed on the Oct 31st promise and where they don't win them they just dilute the Tory vote.
The Lib Dems gain about 10 - 15 seats, mostly from previously held Conservative seats but also a few Labour.
The DUP will loose 1 if not 2 seats to the Alliance Party, maybe SF could loose one to them as well.

I just don't see where Johnson gets enough votes to get a majority. Most likely in my mind is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and if really needed the SNP but that will come at the price of independence for Scotland.

Good analysis, fully agree with all of that.

Fionn1952

Akabusi wrote: »

With the performance yesterday his great plan was likely to try and goad the opposition into an early election, they rightly haven't fallen for that and if anything he'll have turned off a lot of moderates with his comments on Jo Cox.

Now he will look for an extension, he has no other choice, his simple message will be that he had was forced into it by a parliament who want to go against the people's will.

His promise will be to elect him with a strong majority and he will deliver Brexit no matter what the opposition try.

However the likely outcome of another election is that Johnson will have a lower number of seats than he has now.
In England on one side, the Brexit party will be eating away at him and on the other the Lib Dems will gobble up most of the moderates. I think Labour will perform similar to how it did last time. They will lose votes to the Brexit party in the hard line leave areas but gain some of the moderates to make up for this somewhat.
The Conservatives could end up not winning any seats in Scotland.
The Brexit Party could pick up somewhere around 3 - 5 seats because Johnson failed on the Oct 31st promise and where they don't win them they just dilute the Tory vote.
The Lib Dems gain about 10 - 15 seats, mostly from previously held Conservative seats but also a few Labour.
The DUP will loose 1 if not 2 seats to the Alliance Party, maybe SF could loose one to them as well.

I just don't see where Johnson gets enough votes to get a majority. Most likely in my mind is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and if really needed the SNP but that will come at the price of independence for Scotland.

Pretty closely in line with what I'd expect at the moment, but by Christ, things are so volatile right now that any predictions will have very wide margins of error, sufficiently wide that really, depending on the prevailing mood of the day, there could be anything from a Tory majority to a complete collapse.

Dohnjoe

There were so many comments about Bojo absolutely having to resign, he's a shameless populist, why for one second would he resign?

Also if there were a general election, it's likely the CONs would win (with a coalition) and Boris would be head of that. I don't see him going anywhere any time soon.

GM228

Some more court document reading, this time the motion for the Scottish Court of Session Inner House to use its nobile officium power to request the extension:-

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ml1e5etv6utt6fn/Petition.pdf?dl=0

With Johnson stating last night he will not comply with the Benn Act and some movement from the Inner House expected in the coming days expect plenty more popcorn moments.

Bannasidhe

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think the mood has changed on this. And it wasn't because "they didn't like him". It was because such a government would depend on Tory rebels; for whom supporting a Labour PM would be career suicide. Corbyn being Corbyn, doesn't help, but these days, he's looking like a far better option than Johnson and that's without any change in his fence-sitting exploits.

Swinson was fairly adamant.
Anyone but Corbyn -including Harriet Harmen who would still have been a Labour PM so I'm not sure the argument that it was about party not person holds water.

For whatever reason is it ridiculous to complain that the current PM is playing fast and loose with conventions while seeking to do the exact same thing yourself.

If the PM is going to be removed, and it is not possible for a member of his/her party to form a government (which is what happened when May was 'removed' ), the convention is that the leader of the largest opposition party would be invited to try and form a government, even a minority 'caretaker' government to guide the ship of State until a GE can be held.

There is no 'as long as you approve of them' clause.

Joe_ Public

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This, of course is party political jockeying for the upcoming election instead of any sort of Unity government.

After an actual VoNC, the 14 day clock ticking would get things moving: propose Corbyn, vote nope, propose Swinson, vote Hell no, head scratch, propose Ken Clarke, well, OK then.

But with Johnson cornered in his #10 office, there is no deadline to agree on a caretaker PM just yet.

Correct. Everybodys playing politics which is what political partys are designed to do after all. Personally, i think it would be a great move for Corbyn to be statesmanlike and voluntarily, after some haggling of course, agreeing to step aside for someone like Harriet Harman. Whether he'll countenance it is another matter, possibly not. I dont say Kenneth Clarke because there would be too much irony in it for me that they compromise on someone who has consistently voted for brexit, albeit that is his own compromise position.

Akabusi

With the performance yesterday his great plan was likely to try and goad the opposition into an early election, they rightly haven't fallen for that and if anything he'll have turned off a lot of moderates with his comments on Jo Cox.

Now he will look for an extension, he has no other choice, his simple message will be that he had was forced into it by a parliament who want to go against the people's will.

His promise will be to elect him with a strong majority and he will deliver Brexit no matter what the opposition try.

However the likely outcome of another election is that Johnson will have a lower number of seats than he has now.
In England on one side, the Brexit party will be eating away at him and on the other the Lib Dems will gobble up most of the moderates. I think Labour will perform similar to how it did last time. They will lose votes to the Brexit party in the hard line leave areas but gain some of the moderates to make up for this somewhat.
The Conservatives could end up not winning any seats in Scotland.
The Brexit Party could pick up somewhere around 3 - 5 seats because Johnson failed on the Oct 31st promise and where they don't win them they just dilute the Tory vote.
The Lib Dems gain about 10 - 15 seats, mostly from previously held Conservative seats but also a few Labour.
The DUP will loose 1 if not 2 seats to the Alliance Party, maybe SF could loose one to them as well.

I just don't see where Johnson gets enough votes to get a majority. Most likely in my mind is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and if really needed the SNP but that will come at the price of independence for Scotland.

Zubeneschamali

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Nor when you have small opposition parties and independents saying we must unite against Boris but not under the leader of the largest opposition party

This, of course is party political jockeying for the upcoming election instead of any sort of Unity government.

After an actual VoNC, the 14 day clock ticking would get things moving: propose Corbyn, vote nope, propose Swinson, vote Hell no, head scratch, propose Ken Clarke, well, OK then.

But with Johnson cornered in his #10 office, there is no deadline to agree on a caretaker PM just yet.

prawnsambo

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Nor when you have small opposition parties and independents saying we must unite against Boris but not under the leader of the largest opposition party not even temporarily for a clearly defined period of time because we don't like him.

Like Corbyn or not, the electorate returned 246 Labour MPs at the last GE under his leadership. The LibDems got 12. It strikes me as petulant not to just form a temporary govt of Unity with Corbyn (as leader of the largest bloc) installed as pro-tem PM.
Do they think he is going to go full Stalin and declare the Soviet Republic of Great Britain?!?!?

What they are doing is keeping Boris there, complaining he doesn't respect the conventions while wanting to overturn a convention that doesn't suit them.

Ya couldn't make it up.

I think the mood has changed on this. And it wasn't because "they didn't like him". It was because such a government would depend on Tory rebels; for whom supporting a Labour PM would be career suicide. Corbyn being Corbyn, doesn't help, but these days, he's looking like a far better option than Johnson and that's without any change in his fence-sitting exploits.

Bannasidhe

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Very hard for a Unity government to agree terms for a deal with the EU when it is made up of Bollocks To Brexit LibDems, Norway+ types and ex-Tory supporters of May's deal.

I think they will call an election rather than try this, and hope the next Parliament has a clearer consensus.

Nor when you have small opposition parties and independents saying we must unite against Boris but not under the leader of the largest opposition party not even temporarily for a clearly defined period of time because we don't like him.

Like Corbyn or not, the electorate returned 246 Labour MPs at the last GE under his leadership. The LibDems got 12. It strikes me as petulant not to just form a temporary govt of Unity with Corbyn (as leader of the largest bloc) installed as pro-tem PM.
Do they think he is going to go full Stalin and declare the Soviet Republic of Great Britain?!?!?

What they are doing is keeping Boris there, complaining he doesn't respect the conventions while wanting to overturn a convention that doesn't suit them.

Ya couldn't make it up.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

A provisional government of national unity could ask for an extension, agree on principles for a deal with the EU based on close alignment with the SM and CU. Agree changes to the Political Declaration with the EU on that basis and ratify the existing WA with the priviso that the WA and Political Declaration as a package will go back to the people for a referendum.

Very hard for a Unity government to agree terms for a deal with the EU when it is made up of Bollocks To Brexit LibDems, Norway+ types and ex-Tory supporters of May's deal.

I think they will call an election rather than try this, and hope the next Parliament has a clearer consensus.

Bannasidhe

eagle eye wrote: »

As insane as everything is that's going on right now I have this feeling that Johnson has an end game. I've no idea what it is but what he is at is just too crazy. I just can't believe he is that stupid.

He strikes me as a 'It'll be grand' kind of man. He has, through bullying, bluff, bluster, and acting the buffoon managed to become Prime Minister.
He has always played fast and loose, had a casual relationship with the truth, flip flopped according which position was most advantageous, taken credit for other people's work, been known to utterly fail to do his own work, been fired for lying, - and yet - he became PM.

But now he is at the endgame and I'm not sure he knows what to do next.

Cummings on the other hand -I think he'd be happy to just watch it all burn knowing he caused it.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

This was the result of the vote for recess,

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1177208985981804544?s=20

This is why there is no rush for an election. Why would any opposition give up this power? You get to humiliate the government at every turn. Rees-Mogg has just mentioned in parliament that the country wants an election. I don't think that is right, I think they will be tired of elections by now, 2015, 2016 referendum, 2017 and now again in 2019. That doesn't shout that people will be looking for another election.

the amazing thing is that 289 MPs still voted to not work in the month leading up to Brexit

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

*cough*

https://twitter.com/LittleGravitas/status/1177209400332881921

When your own family don't respect you and you are PM...

My guess is Cummings but the Brexit elite is an interesting theory.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

He let something blurt out yesterday along the lines of "If I never heard the word 'Brexit' once during 2020, I would be very happy".

I can agree with him on that!

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I've absolutely no doubt that's the primary goal. Brexit is just a tool to further that aim.

He let something blurt out yesterday along the lines of "If I never heard the word 'Brexit' once during 2020, I would be very happy".

J Mysterio

*cough*

https://twitter.com/LittleGravitas/status/1177209400332881921

When your own family don't respect you and you are PM...

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

This was the result of the vote for recess,

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1177208985981804544?s=20

This is why there is no rush for an election. Why would any opposition give up this power? You get to humiliate the government at every turn. Rees-Mogg has just mentioned in parliament that the country wants an election. I don't think that is right, I think they will be tired of elections by now, 2015, 2016 referendum, 2017 and now again in 2019. That doesn't shout that people will be looking for another election.

Payback. Karma's a bitch at times.

Enzokk

This was the result of the vote for recess,

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1177208985981804544?s=20

This is why there is no rush for an election. Why would any opposition give up this power? You get to humiliate the government at every turn. Rees-Mogg has just mentioned in parliament that the country wants an election. I don't think that is right, I think they will be tired of elections by now, 2015, 2016 referendum, 2017 and now again in 2019. That doesn't shout that people will be looking for another election.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Selling dolphin as fish would be false advertising, unethical and probably illegal.

And his target audience would likely know that.

If dolphin was the only thing wrongly attributed and unethical maybe illegally promoted in this restaurant, its future would look much brighter indeed.

But very far from everyone in the audience seem to have even the most basic knowledge.

Lars

Dyr

One thing I wonder about is who Johnson has around him in Parliament. Most leaders have their own cabal of MPs who've put the leader in but Johnson appears wholly reliant on the ERG and brexiteers. They know he is a chancer who doesnt really believe in Brexit. He knows that they only see him as a means to a single end, delivering brexit on Halloween. No one in the Tories appears to have any interest in Johnson as a PM other than to achieve a short term goal

Johnson has only one hope to remain PM, deliver brexit and go to the country.

There is no clever Plan B.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Some analysts think the plan by him and Cummings is to hold and win a general election by whatever means necessary. Brexit is almost a total sideshow.

I've absolutely no doubt that's the primary goal. Brexit is just a tool to further that aim.

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

As insane as everything is that's going on right now I have this feeling that Johnson has an end game. I've no idea what it is but what he is at is just too crazy. I just can't believe he is that stupid.

I disagree yesterdays scenes look like a man at the end of his tether and desperately flailing around for something to grab onto.

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

A Prime Minister refusing to obey the law is making his own government redundant. It allows the extension letter to be sent and then general election to take place

I thought there was a move to send it regardless of what Boris did. Apologies.

Strazdas

eagle eye wrote: »

As insane as everything is that's going on right now I have this feeling that Johnson has an end game. I've no idea what it is but what he is at is just too crazy. I just can't believe he is that stupid.

Some analysts think the plan by him and Cummings is to hold and win a general election by whatever means necessary. Brexit is almost a total sideshow.

DOCARCH

VinLieger wrote: »

Also fvcking lol Tory conference recess has just been voted down. Hilarious.

What did they expect after proroguing parliament and tone yesterday!

eagle eye

As insane as everything is that's going on right now I have this feeling that Johnson has an end game. I've no idea what it is but what he is at is just too crazy. I just can't believe he is that stupid.