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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

Have labor not offered that interim single purpose government?

SFAIK they have. I was responding to Woohoo's suggestion to install a new government which would not just secure a Brexit extension but would also negotiate a revised deal and conduct a referendum on it. There isn't a sufficient inter-party consensus for that programme (Lib Dem policy is to revoke, for example) and, even if there were, as it would take many months to do all that the programme for government would also have to have a coherent position and cross-party support on other major issues that might require attention in the meantime (like whether to back US action against Iraq, for example).

I don't think a shared rejection of no-deal Brexit is a sufficient basis for the government that Woohoo suggests.

VinLieger

Forty Seven wrote: »

Not without defending that position likely with the army they cannot. The procedure and the norm is a voc.

LOL you are absolutely clueless, they have 14 days after a VOC to elect a new PM

Forty Seven

VinLieger wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

No. It cannot.

Yes it can, its literally a basic part of parliamentary procedure, just because the government looses its majority doesn't mean an election must be called, if the opposition can gather a majority of votes a new PM and Government can be installed.

Not without defending that position likely with the army they cannot. The procedure and the norm is a voc.

VinLieger

Forty Seven wrote: »

No. It cannot.

Yes it can, its literally a basic part of parliamentary procedure, just because the government looses its majority doesn't mean an election must be called, if the opposition can gather a majority of votes a new PM and Government can be installed.

Forty Seven

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

Point out that it was Johnson's cavalier approach and political cock ups that threw away a majority. Point out that a new GE is far from guaranteed of returning a decisive result to get a WA passed given it was the ERG were the ones who scuppered the first WA. Point out that the Tories have precided over chaos long enough.

What has any of that got to do with my point?

Forty Seven

VinLieger wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

If parliament has no confidence then......

It can elect a new PM from the current membership.

No. It cannot.

Forty Seven

lawred2 wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

Seizing control! Typical Brexit talk as if everything is a military maneuver. For lads who still see the world through ww2 comic books.

There is no seizing control. This government no longer has a majority in parliament. Parliaments all over the world are not usually in the business of playing second fiddle to minority governments. Especially ones that are seen to be acting so dishonestly and without scruples as this one.

Maybe read the context first? It was woohoo suggesting seizing control and installing a new leader. All the while lamenting the use of surrender. I stand by my comment.

woohoo!!!

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

Point out that it was Johnson's cavalier approach and political cock ups that threw away a majority. Point out that a new GE is far from guaranteed of returning a decisive result to get a WA passed given it was the ERG were the ones who scuppered the first WA. Point out that the Tories have precided over chaos long enough.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

There is one good thing that might come from this farce though and it might be that more people might wake up over there to the absolute guttertrash level of stupidity that this whole debacle has dragged Britain down to.

Those who ought to "wake up" are those most indoctrinated in the cult. Wether through deliberate choice or passive complacency, they are insulated from the wider world view of Britain. They don't believe the country is being dragged down; rather, they are fighting bravely against the Germans, against Brussels, against all kinds of mythical enemies.

VinLieger

Forty Seven wrote: »

If parliament has no confidence then......

It can elect a new PM from the current membership.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is, there isn't a majority for a new PM.

What there is a majority for is avoiding a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. But that's a purely negative policy on a single (albeit important) policy issue; it's nothing like enough for a programme for government. And, once 31 October has passed, it's nothing at all.

At the moment the only remotely credible alternative government is one whose programme is limited to (a) taking the minimal steps necessary to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, and (b) proceeding immediately thereafter to an early general election. And the only justification for installing even this interim government would be if Johnson refuses to observe the law requiring him to seek a Brexit extension, or if he resigns rather than do so.

Have labor not offered that interim single purpose government?

lawred2

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

Seizing control! Typical Brexit talk as if everything is a military maneuver. For lads who still see the world through ww2 comic books.

There is no seizing control. This government no longer has a majority in parliament. Parliaments all over the world are not usually in the business of playing second fiddle to minority governments. Especially ones that are seen to be acting so dishonestly and without scruples as this one.

Forty Seven

Panrich wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

If there is a majority for a new PM, then parliament is entitled to elect a new PM.

What mandate does Johnson have?

If parliament has no confidence then......

Peregrinus

Panrich wrote: »

If there is a majority for a new PM, then parliament is entitled to elect a new PM.

The thing is, there isn't a majority for a new PM.

What there is a majority for is avoiding a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. But that's a purely negative policy on a single (albeit important) policy issue; it's nothing like enough for a programme for government. And, once 31 October has passed, it's nothing at all.

At the moment the only remotely credible alternative government is one whose programme is limited to (a) taking the minimal steps necessary to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, and (b) proceeding immediately thereafter to an early general election. And the only justification for installing even this interim government would be if Johnson refuses to observe the law requiring him to seek a Brexit extension, or if he resigns rather than do so.

murphaph

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

The Brexit mess cannot be resolved with a GE because a GE is a multi-faceted opinion poll. This thing needs to go back to the people to be decided, with the REAL options on the ballot paper:
-Leave with no deal
-Leave with May's deal (or softer variant thereof)
-Revoke and remain

Simple PR STV referendum and you have your answer. Will of the people and all that.

Panrich

Forty Seven wrote: »

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

If there is a majority for a new PM, then parliament is entitled to elect a new PM.

What mandate does Johnson have?

Forty Seven

Seizing control and installing a new leader. Not suspect at all. While refusing proffered elections?

And you think 'surrender bill' is inflammatory?

A Dub in Glasgo

JeffKenna wrote: »

Party before country with the opposition parties I'm afraid. They want to force Boris into asking for an extension thus destroying his credibility with the electorate.

They know Johnson will bait and switch an election date thus forcing the UK to crash out. Parliament quite rightly wants to avoid this crash out situation and want to secure an extension and then a general election

cantwbr1

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I've criticised Bercow b4 but he did superbly yesterday. When will the opposition realise that they urgently need to seize control of parliament, install a PM, get an extension, get a deal, do referendum and get this done?

If this actually happens the headlines in the right wing press will immediately be that a coup has taken place and the UK is now a dictatorship. Johnson and his following will encourage such language

JeffKenna

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The surrender Bill. He repeated it so many times that opposition MPs repeated it. Job done, Cummings happy out, straight from the Trump playbook, play up on people's fears to side step his own failings.

I've criticised Bercow b4 but he did superbly yesterday. When will the opposition realise that they urgently need to seize control of parliament, install a PM, get an extension, get a deal, do referendum and get this done?

Party before country with the opposition parties I'm afraid. They want to force Boris into asking for an extension thus destroying his credibility with the electorate.

woohoo!!!

The surrender Bill. He repeated it so many times that opposition MPs repeated it. Job done, Cummings happy out, straight from the Trump playbook, play up on people's fears to side step his own failings.

I've criticised Bercow b4 but he did superbly yesterday. When will the opposition realise that they urgently need to seize control of parliament, install a PM, get an extension, get a deal, do referendum and get this done?

fash

Tell me how wrote: »

I'd hope you're right, but, I'd be more fearful that it's some sort of a race to the bottom. One side might use the 'sure they did it first approach' 'rather than, let's not stoop to their level'.

Look what happened in the US for Hillary with her 'He goes low, we go high'. In america, the divisions have grown with neither side being particularly morally upstanding at this point once you dig any bit in to it.

I hope, you're right, but if Johnson gets his way, the motivation will be to learn from that instead of trying to lead by a better example.

Just imagine what things will look like after we've had 5 years of Johnson and 5 years of what happened last night...

Tell me how

Infini wrote: »

There is one good thing that might come from this farce though and it might be that more people might wake up over there to the absolute guttertrash level of stupidity that this whole debacle has dragged Britain down to. Lets face it were seeing unprecedented levels of stupidity here. The threats to MPs are just disgusting too whoever sends those should be tossed in the prison for a few weeks for being utterly stupid and vile.

Maybe just maybe this parliment and even some of the more loyal tories might wake up and realise this has gone on too long, that the toxic BS by Farage, Boris, Moggs, Cummings is threatening to sink them entirely and that if theres any way out its that they need to stop Brexit and remove this cancerous stupidity from their ranks.

This feels like its entering its true endgame now its up to opposition to basically agree an exit plan out of this fiasco, Boris needs be removed but not given a GE but someone appointed to replace him that can diasarm this bomb under them. Then they need to have a SERIOUS look at their whole country and challenge and tackle the stupid idiots, the parasites and the corruption that has festered due to this Brexit fiasco.

I'd hope you're right, but, I'd be more fearful that it's some sort of a race to the bottom. One side might use the 'sure they did it first approach' 'rather than, let's not stoop to their level'.

Look what happened in the US for Hillary with her 'He goes low, we go high'. In america, the divisions have grown with neither side being particularly morally upstanding at this point once you dig any bit in to it.

I hope, you're right, but if Johnson gets his way, the motivation will be to learn from that instead of trying to lead by a better example.

Infini

There is one good thing that might come from this farce though and it might be that more people might wake up over there to the absolute guttertrash level of stupidity that this whole debacle has dragged Britain down to. Lets face it were seeing unprecedented levels of stupidity here. The threats to MPs are just disgusting too whoever sends those should be tossed in the prison for a few weeks for being utterly stupid and vile.

Maybe just maybe this parliment and even some of the more loyal tories might wake up and realise this has gone on too long, that the toxic BS by Farage, Boris, Moggs, Cummings is threatening to sink them entirely and that if theres any way out its that they need to stop Brexit and remove this cancerous stupidity from their ranks.

This feels like its entering its true endgame now its up to opposition to basically agree an exit plan out of this fiasco, Boris needs be removed but not given a GE but someone appointed to replace him that can diasarm this bomb under them. Then they need to have a SERIOUS look at their whole country and challenge and tackle the stupid idiots, the parasites and the corruption that has festered due to this Brexit fiasco.

fash

Enter name here wrote: »

Then maybe the wishes of the majority should have been respected first. Respect is earned not given.

Indeed- and the vast majority in the UK who voted in 2016 - certainly 25-30 million- voted to remain in the single market "no-one is talking about leaving the single market" " only a mad man would leave the single market" etc. Furthermore the majority today are being denied their voice. You should respect the Will of the People.

Mr.Nice Guy

I was watching a bit of the Westminster coverage and I thought it reached a new low at times. From the Attorney-General Cox screaming that the parliament was a disgrace, to Johnson later in the evening ramping up the rhetoric of 'betrayal' and 'surrender' etc., it's obvious the UK is heading down a very dark road. And I'm not sure those behind this strategy know the dangerous path they're going down.

It seems the Johnson/Cummings strategy is to play the populist card. To portray Boris as the man of the people, bravely taking on the establishment elites trying to thwart a 'clean Brexit'. The judges are the enemy. So is the parliament. So is the speaker. Basically everyone not on their side.

It's incredible to me that anyone could buy these old Etonians styling themselves as anti-Establishment, but there will be an element of the public that laps this up. Obviously the gameplan is to hope this approach leads to an overall majority. I think the strategists then believe they'll be able to move towards trying to reach a concensus on the back of this whopping mandate they're convinced they'll get. But the forces they're unleashing as part of this strategy aren't going to be so easily put away.

What I'm not sure they've considered is what happens if the strategy only serves to lead to more stalemate and delay? If an election doesn't offer a way forward, and there are yet more extensions demanded, then surely at that point the only way out of the quagmire is a second referendum.

And what happens if in this second referendum, the Remain vote were to win by, say, 52-48%? Are we really to believe that the Leave voters - who have been fed for years a diet of 'betrayal' and 'plots' by the right-wing media, warning them of an insidious agenda by the establishment to thwart Brexit - that these folks are are all just going to leave the stage quietly with a shrug of their shoulders?

If even 1% of that 17.4m people are outraged enough to the point of wanting to vent their frustrations through violence, we're talking over a hundred thousand people. Even if we halve that number, 0.5% is tens of thousands. More than enough to cause years of unrest and mayhem. For context, the dissidents in NI have been estimated to be in the hundreds.

I'm not sure the Tories that are screaming their daily invective quite know what a whirlwind they may potentially reap years down the line. Imagine some young bloke from a Leave family in a working class area of England. He's hearing a daily diet in his home about the enemies of the people looking to overthrow democracy etc. Now imagine the atmosphere if/when a second referendum comes about and is won by a narrow majority, and possibly the economy on a downturn around the same time with job losses, and possibly the break-up of the UK itself if Scotland decides to get the hell out, you're talking about some serious, serious anger being built up.

Responsible leadership would be to dial this stuff down and try to get a degree of cooperation going. Maybe even consider a national unity government. Instead the UK parties are ramping up the divisiveness. I can see this ending in tears.

I see a certain parallel with what de Valera went through in the late 30s and 40s when trying to manage the threat of the IRA - many of whose members would have grown up listening and believing the fiery rhetoric that de Valera himself would have been saying in the early 20s. This is from J.J. Lee's Ireland 1912-85:

De Valera was regularly taunted with reneging on his own earlier persona, as when William Norton, leader of the Labour Party, enquired, 'am I to understand that hunger strikes or thirst strikes of this nature which were right in 1922 and 1923 are wrong in 1939?' De Valera equally regularly replied that the constitution of 1937 had invested the state with a new legitimacy and 'there were no longer any obstacles in the way of any section to utilising constitutional means'.

I wonder if one day Tories like Johnson and Cox are going to have to answer questions as to why it was okay for them to query the morals and agendas of the judicial system, but not whatever new radical group may have eventually emerged down the line, which might choose to ask these questions with more than just mere words.

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

First European Commissioner to slam Johnson, ironically the UK Commissioner.

https://twitter.com/JKingEU/status/1176963566752210949?s=19

A former UK ambassador to Ireland incidentally. He was here at the time of the Queen's visit.

GM228

First European Commissioner to slam Johnson, ironically the UK Commissioner.

https://twitter.com/JKingEU/status/1176963566752210949?s=19

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

It feels like we passed some sort of point of no return today. The outrage over the direction of the county under this government and its behaviour is at absolute fever pitch.

Shamefully, Nikki Morgan is still supporting Boris and portraying herself as some sort of moderating influence or voice of sanity in cabinet. Really, she is an enabler and a careerist.

Amber Rudd meanwhile has now fully denounced Johnson and his tactics. Rightly.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1176953986126999554

Not sure Boris can handle the pressure either, maybe illustrated by his walking out of parliament after 3 hours. Must have been much more comfortable for him sniping from the sidelines. Not as easy to be front and centre with ultimate responsibility,

He's not good at the dispatch box : it's nearly always rambling nonsense from him

Patser

This moment on newsnight is also going viral. A Tory MP in trying to defend Johnson's behaviour today, stutters and then say we should all feel sorry for him for the pressure he's under. the reaction of the other guests make it.

https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1176982099859058689