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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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eagle eye

Corbyn is well past the point of ever being respected as a leader.

Mr.Nice Guy

In a 'normal' situation this would be a huge blow to a serving PM, but in the abnormal situation of Brexit I don't expect this to hurt Johnson much.

His position is that he wants a General Election. A vote of No Confidence gives him that and he is likely to relish the opportunity. Labour are an absolute shambles at the moment and their position on Brexit is messy and muddled. If they don't force a General Election he can continue talking about how his hands are being tied.

Those who are in the Brexiter camp have been fed a diet of how the judges are the enemy of the people since 2017-ish. They will lap up a narrative of 'Boris and the people' vs the 'remoaner judges' and 'remoaner parliament' without any bother.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the next opinion polls show Johnson has moved further ahead of Corbyn in terms of popularity.

I do think though if England goes down the road of rallying behind Johnson after all this that it will push more Scots further down the independence route.

Bottom line is people already have their minds up on what they think of Brexit. The ruling today is unlikely to have changed anyone's thinking on the subject imo. The only ones seemingly wanting to sit on the fence are Labour and it's they who will pay the price for their indecisiveness.

Roger_007

Corbyn is talking about what Labour is going to do when Labour are in government.
As long as Corbyn is the leader, Labour will not be elected to government. He is too left wing even for many life-long Labour voters. The Labour Party has been taken over by the hard left. Many of the sitting moderate Labour MPs will be deselected for the next election and replaced by harder left wing candidates.
It's like being back in the Michael Foot days when Labour made themselves unelectable and allowed Thatcher free reign for 10 years.
Corbyn is a liability on two fronts, he is too left wing and he is completely inept as a leader.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From Corbyn's speech:

His is a born-to-rule government of the entitled who believe that the rules they set for everyone else don’t apply to them. That’s what today’s supreme court judgment spells out with brutal clarity. There was no reason – “let alone a good reason”, the judges concluded – for the prime minister to have shut down parliament. He thought he could do whatever he liked just as he always does. He thinks he’s above us all. He is part of an elite that disdains democracy. He is not fit to be prime minister. Let me quote the supreme court’s conclusion: “Unlawful, null and of no effect and should be quashed” – they’ve got the prime minister down to a tee.

Bit of leadership from Corbyn at last.

Its not leadership, he's just criticising the Tories. He never has a problem with doing that, its basic. If he wanted to show leadership he could... eh.. Take a position on Brexit. He wants to be all things to all men untill (if) he gets in to power, then we see the real Corbyn.

It's disgraceful that he isn't taking a position given all we know now (and what was obvious to many long ago). He has pervaricated for three years and now his big idea is to have another referendum, without advising what the best choice might be. If Corbyn can't provide proper leadership on such a fundamental issue to the viability and future of the UK, what use is he at all?

The Tory party have been absolutely all over the place and have set new many new all time lows, inventing new forms of disgrace and scandal. Labour have had a completely open goal to shoot at for some time and yet they keep kicking it out of play.

I see many Labour voters declaring their intention to vote for the Lib Dems precisely because of the lack of labour leadership. Lib Dems policy could not be more clear and unambiguous. Lib Dems only have about 29 MPs at the moment.

Water John

It's actually a very good address by him. I wouldn't be his greatest fan, but I'd have him any day, instead of Johnson, Mogg and co.
The 10 years of austerity has pillaged the UK.

Joe_ Public

Are the Lib Dems back to being a second referendum party now?

J Mysterio

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Are the Lib Dems back to being a second referendum party now?

Revoke party.

Joe_ Public

J Mysterio wrote: »

Revoke party.

Yeah, that's what i thought. But then i heard their party leader talk about a people's vote on the bbc this morning which i dont know if there's a leak, but she also tweeted this too:

https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1176457346827972609

Memnoch

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its not leadership, he's just criticising the Tories. He never has a problem with doing that, its basic. If he wanted to show leadership he could... eh.. Take a position on Brexit. He wants to be all things to all men untill (if) he gets in to power, then we see the real Corbyn.

It's disgraceful that he isn't taking a position given all we know now (and what was obvious to many long ago). He has pervaricated for three years and now his big idea is to have another referendum, without advising what the best choice might be. If Corbyn can't provide proper leadership on such a fundamental issue to the viability and future of the UK, what use is he at all?

The Tory party have been absolutely all over the place and have set new many new all time lows, inventing new forms of disgrace and scandal. Labour have had a completely open goal to shoot at for some time and yet they keep kicking it out of play.

I see many Labour voters declaring their intention to vote for the Lib Dems precisely because of the lack of labour leadership. Lib Dems policy could not be more clear and unambiguous. Lib Dems only have about 29 MPs at the moment.

The difficulty for posters on these forums is that they are looking at this issue from a very narrow perspective. We might be utterly opposed and befuddled to the thinking in the United Kingdom but we have the luxury of ignoring it. Corbyn does not.

Let's be clear. There will not be another referendum without a general election. In fact, if the conservatives remain in power there will not be a referendum at all.

The Labour Party is as split on the issue of brexit as the rest of the country. On top of that there is a sizable group of labor MPs whose only goal is to keep Corbyn out of power at all costs and this has been the case since again leadership of the party.

The Labour Party is offered a clear policy position. Therefore referendum between a sensible leave option and remain. This is as centrist and balanced a position as is possible in the United Kingdom right now.

The Lib Dems have the luxury of making this their single issue. They know that labor cannot take such a stance because it would be too politically destructive to them. And considering the starting position they have nothing to lose.

It would be useful if people would consider the realpolitik of the current UK situation when understanding the motivations of the various actors involved.

Memnoch

Deleted User wrote: »

I hate Corbyn. The nonsense coming from him. "Within three months...."

edit: Coward. He brings it back to the "rich paying their share". Where's the position? Why should I vote for him if I were British?

Brexit matters. Now. This year.

Have you ever not hated him?

Memnoch

Roger_007 wrote: »

Corbyn is talking about what Labour is going to do when Labour are in government.
As long as Corbyn is the leader, Labour will not be elected to government. He is too left wing even for many life-long Labour voters. The Labour Party has been taken over by the hard left. Many of the sitting moderate Labour MPs will be deselected for the next election and replaced by harder left wing candidates.
It's like being back in the Michael Foot days when Labour made themselves unelectable and allowed Thatcher free reign for 10 years.
Corbyn is a liability on two fronts, he is too left wing and he is completely inept as a leader.

Please take a look at the last labor manifesto. It is as centerleft as it gets and I would be very surprised if the new manifesto for an upcoming general election would be substantially more to the left of that.

Of course this will not stop the establishment from continuing to try and smear him as some kind of extremist nor will it prevent people like yourself from buying the propaganda wholesale any more than the British public at large were able to resist the anti-European propaganda from the same establishment.

If Corbyn is unelectable it is thanks to the same propaganda that made brexit possible. Essentially, an undermining of democratic processes to enrich a chosen few.

[Deleted User]

My post that said "this is a joke" got deleted. But it is a joke. This is an incredibly important speech as the opposition. After the Supreme Court judgement, this should be hard-hitting stuff.. and it's all just nonsense. "We will do everything anyone has ever dreamed of." and barely a word of Brexit throughout.

What the hell is going on. Why can't they oppose the Torys and the government?

J Mysterio

Corbyn's position is assuming that the EU grant:

1. Time for general election.
2. Time to renegotiate the entire WA.
3. Time for 2nd referendum.

J Mysterio

Memnoch wrote: »

It would be useful if people would consider the realpolitik of the current UK situation when understanding the motivations of the various actors involved.

Also, this is very condescending. We have been discussing this for years and are very clued in indeed.

Joe_ Public

Can some people please inform us how, apart from virtually opposing every bill brought by the government since the invocation of A50 which can be argued they hadn't much choice, labour aren't actually opposing? If that isn't opposition, maybe the proper definition could be clarified?

VinLieger

Corbyn and the labour party refusing to take a stance on what way to go in the 2nd referendum is literally repeating the exact same mistake Cameron made, without a real government campaign for remain there is every likelihood the same shenanigans will occur again.

Which in my in my opinion is exactly what Corbyn wants.

Memnoch

J Mysterio wrote: »

Corbyn's position is assuming that the EU grant:

1. Time for general election.
2. Time to renegotiate the entire WA.
3. Time for 2nd referendum.

Corbyn is not in power. He cannot force revoke or a second referendum without a general election.

The conservatives will not consent to either as things stand. Parliament might be able to frustrate Boris Johnson's attempts for an ordeal but there are not enough MPs to be able to push through a referendum or revocation as things stand.

The EU can try to play chicken with the British Parliament and refuse to allow further time without some kind of concession. But I think they would recognize that as a very risky proposition and would, in all likelihood, grant an extension on the basis of a general election that should clarify things one way or the other.

Corbyn's options currently are limited. He is calculating that a general election is the only possible route out of this mess. Boris Johnson has made the same calculation as have the Lib Dems. That is most likely to be the short term and game for all parties involved.

J Mysterio

Ok. Corbyn's position is assuming that the EU will grant:

1. Time for general election.

And - if Labour win a majority:

2. Time to renegotiate the entire WA.
3. Time for 2nd referendum.

Chips Lovell

Corbyn has offered an utterly reasonable alternative plan. If it was anyone else, he'd be a shoe in at the next election.

However, hatred of him shouldn't be underestimated and there's a lot of voters who'll be put off by the prospect of a Corbyn premiership. You can bet your bottom dollar that half the Tory's campaign will be "do you want a communist in Downing Street".

And unfortunately for Labour, Corbyn has a habit of playing into their hands on this front.

Memnoch

J Mysterio wrote: »

Also, this is very condescending. We have been discussing this for years and are very clued in indeed.

Yet, it seems to not be factored in in countless posts on a daily basis when discussing the issue.

This is understandable of course but merits pointing out in my view.

Professor Moriarty

Memnoch wrote: »

Corbyn is not in power. He cannot force revoke or a second referendum without a general election.

The conservatives will not consent to either as things stand. Parliament might be able to frustrate Boris Johnson's attempts for an ordeal but there are not enough MPs to be able to push through a referendum or revocation as things stand.

The EU can try to play chicken with the British Parliament and refuse to allow further time without some kind of concession. But I think they would recognize that as a very risky proposition and would, in all likelihood, grant an extension on the basis of a general election that should clarify things one way or the other.

Corbyn's options currently are limited. He is calculating that a general election is the only possible route out of this mess. Boris Johnson has made the same calculation as have the Lib Dems. That is most likely to be the short term and game for all parties involved.

If Corbyn truly cared for Labour, he would resign. That would be the best option.

[Deleted User]

"The tide is turning.The years of retreat and defeat are coming to an end. Together, we’ll take on the privileged, and put the people in power. Thank you."

So nice in times of normality.

This is the entire British Isles looking to some opposition that could offer anything, and we're nearly three years at it. Where is it? Where's the actual position?

Memnoch

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Corbyn has offered an utterly reasonable alternative plan. If it was anyone else, he'd be a shoe in at the next election.

However, hatred of him shouldn't be underestimated and there's a lot of voters who'll be put off by the prospect of a Corbyn premiership. You can bet your bottom dollar that half the Tory's campaign will be "do you want a communist in Downing Street".

And unfortunately for Labour, Corbyn has a habit of playing into their hands on this front.

He has not played into their hands at all. It is just relentless propaganda from a determinedly united establishment to stop him from taking any real action on wealth inequality and closing tax loopholes.

J Mysterio

Memnoch wrote: »

Yet, it seems to not be factored in in countless posts on a daily basis when discussing the issue.

This is understandable of course but merits pointing out in my view.

And what was your point? That Corbyn is in a difficult position because he has 'leavers' and 'remainers' both in his party? Maybe that's because he refuses to state his position as leader of the Labour party. As I said, he wants to be all things to all people. It's political cowardice really.

MadYaker

Can Bojo call a vote of no confidence in himself to trigger an election?

Memnoch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If Corbyn truly cared for Labour, he would resign. That would be the best option.

Why? So that the establishment can continue as before? And nothing substantive changes in the slow, inexorable decline towards a total corporatocracy?

[Deleted User]

Memnoch wrote: »

Why? So that the establishment can continue as before? And nothing substantive changes in the slow, inexorable decline towards a total corporatocracy?

Because he is at odds with most Labour voters.

Joe_ Public

MadYaker wrote: »

Can Bojo call a vote of no confidence in himself to trigger an election?

Absolutely. Every chance he'll do it, just to be able to bang on again about labour running "frit", when they refuse to fall into the trap. Gives him something to blather on about if nothing else.

Memnoch

J Mysterio wrote: »

And what was your point? That Corbyn is in a difficult position because he has 'leavers' and 'remainers' both in his party? Maybe that's because he refuses to state his position as leader of the Labour party. As I said, he wants to be all things to all people. It's political cowardice really.

Some people say that he is an ideologue who does not compromise. You are having a go at him for taking a practical position and in my opinion the only one that can actually lead to an ultimately positive result of either revoking brexit or achieving a second referendum.

I think your distaste is down to your personal bias rather than an objective assessment of his actions.

And you illustrate my point perfectly. It's very easy for you to call it political cowardice when you do not have to factor in the realpolitik. Ultimately, he cannot change anything without winning the general election. Clearly, he feels that going hard remain will not achieve that. You can disagree with the strategy that does not make it cowardice.

Sam Russell

Memnoch wrote: »

Corbyn is not in power. He cannot force revoke or a second referendum without a general election.

The conservatives will not consent to either as things stand. Parliament might be able to frustrate Boris Johnson's attempts for an ordeal but there are not enough MPs to be able to push through a referendum or revocation as things stand.

The EU can try to play chicken with the British Parliament and refuse to allow further time without some kind of concession. But I think they would recognize that as a very risky proposition and would, in all likelihood, grant an extension on the basis of a general election that should clarify things one way or the other.

Corbyn's options currently are limited. He is calculating that a general election is the only possible route out of this mess. Boris Johnson has made the same calculation as have the Lib Dems. That is most likely to be the short term and game for all parties involved.

Well there is talk of a Gov of National Unity. If there is a vote of NC carried by the HoC, then there is a window of 14 days to form such a Gov. The choice of PM might be an issue, but a stooge PM such as Ken Clarke who is retiring at the next election would allow an opportunity to settle Brexit.

If the aim of such a Gov is to get a second vote, the best way to achieve that is to agree that a second referendum is held within six months with a GE immediately afterwards. In the meantime, they revoke Art 50, on the basis that they make Art 50 declaration immediately if the vote is for Leave, with the WA already negotiated. The political declaration is nothing, and the Backstop is an irrelevance if a SM and CU applies to NI.

The problem with a GE preceding the 2nd Ref, is that a popular vote as low as 33% might be enough to return a majority pro-leave Gov, where the deselection of pro-remain candidates has occurred, while the Ref needs a popular vote in excess of 50%.

It is a mess of gigantic proportions. Democracy is in the balance.