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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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coolshannagh28

The Labour party are in as big a mess as the Conservatives and Corbyn and a minority of hard left associates are calling the shots and yesterday defied their conference to get their own way , this strategy will not play well in an election which Corbyn is unenthusiastic about.

super_furry

Labour are the real winners here. It ends their disastrous conference early and all the headlines about how divided they are, suddenly disappear.

Igotadose

So, assuming Parliament's back in a day or so, what next? It'll be September 25th, 36 days till October 31 (assuming Parliament meets every day including weekends). All that's in place, is the current WA, nothing's happened viz. any kind of other deal showing up for Parliament to vote on. Heck, the EU's not seen anything other than some notes that can't be shared with individual governments.

Next move? Call for an extension now, for an election in, say, 3 weeks? Once the election's decided, isn't it a few weeks before the new government comes in?

So, it's either:
1. repeal A50
2. Pass the existing WA
3. Ask for an extension (3 months, say), for an election, a new government, and another attempt at an orderly withdrawal?
4. Dither for the remaining 5 weeks doing nothing and promising the deal's coming to Parliament soon for ratification?

I guess I'm asking how long between election results are received that a new government's formed. That can take awhile I believe and isn't bound by any schedule.

Itssoeasy

Jesus I’m not surprised that the Supreme Court ruled against Boris Johnson but I’m shocked at the clarity and the unanimous nature of the ruling. It was in plain English and no way to be misrepresented.

Kalyke

Can the HoC impeach Johnson?

LeinsterDub

Kalyke wrote: »

Can the HoC impeach Johnson?

What would that achieve? A simple VONC will do

VinLieger

What i really love is the potential for the Tories to miss their conference window is Bercow reopens immediately

dfx-

Sam Russell wrote: »

BBC reporting that this verdict was totally a surprise, unseen by everyone.

the expected fudge here was that there would be a split in favour of it being justiciable, but then not go all the way to call it unlawful.

ArmaniJeanss

Igotadose wrote: »

Next move? Call for an extension now, for an election in, say, 3 weeks? Once the election's decided, isn't it a few weeks before the new government comes in?

On your bolded point, minimum of 35 days needed for a GE (between calling it and having it) so 3 weeks not possible.
Maybe call it tomorrow and have it on the 31st October

Bannasidhe

VinLieger wrote: »

What i really love is the potential for the Tories to miss their conference window is Bercow reopens immediately

But their conference would be TV gold.
Will they turn on Boris?
Spin like tops to support Boris?
Will the famous Tory long knives come out?
Will Theresa May cackle through the whole thing causing a nightmare for the sound engineers???

Kalyke

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What would that achieve? A simple VONC will do

Surely impeachment would mean he would be tried by the HoC...or maybe the HoL?

sjb25

Bercow "HOC resumes tomorrow 11.30"

For Forks Sake

sjb25 wrote: »

Bercow "HOC resumes tomorrow 11.30"

When's Boris due back from the UN?

Sparko

For Forks Sake wrote: »

When's Boris due back from the UN?

Due to fly out of NY tomorrow morning, returning to London tomorrow night local time.

That was the original schedule - presumably being hastily reviewed now.

Harry Palmr

If Johnson attempts to suspend parliament again I can see a barricade being mounted in the Palace of Westminster and I'm not joking at all. This could be the most dramatic period for the Houses since the Long Parliament era

Itssoeasy

It's just gone 7am in New York where Boris Johnson is today and I'd say the full english he's most likely having isn't tasting that nice. Did I hear right and the brexiteers want to appeal this to the ECJ ?

VinLieger

sjb25 wrote: »

Bercow "HOC resumes tomorrow 11.30"

So no tory conference, fantastic!

Hoisted by their own petard

prunudo

Surely if there is a GE they'll need an extension. From reading this and the previous X thread whatever deal happens it needs to be done by the 17th Oct for the European Council meeting. So if they call an election parliament will be abolished as they'll be on the campaign trail. So nobody will be there from the UK side to negotiate any deal or amendments.

robinph

VinLieger wrote: »

What i really love is the potential for the Tories to miss their conference window is Bercow reopens immediately

All MP's back in parliament. No vote proposed to close for conferences, or if one is proposed by the Torys everyone else says no as they have done theirs so they don't need the time off. Tory MP's disappear from the HoC for a week and the opposition MP's take over fully and vote through whatever the hell they like as there is nobody on the government benches.

What happens if the HoC is open, but the leader of the house (Mogg) doesn't turn up to set out each days order of business?

Dytalus

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It's just gone 7am in New York where Boris Johnson is today and I'd say the full english he's most likely having isn't tasting that nice. Did I hear right and the brexiteers want to appeal this to the ECJ ?

It's a national matter, not involving EU law. They can't refer it to the ECJ - as much as that be the final, ironic, punchline.

Itssoeasy

Dytalus wrote: »

It's a national matter, not involving EU law. They can't refer it to the ECJ - as much as that be the final, ironic, punchline.

I know that but I think it was Gavan Reilly who was saying it but wasn't sure if he was being serious or not.

banie01

When an 11 member court of the most learned practitioners of Common Law find against ones spurious arguments by a margin of 11-0....

One would hope that the British public see the chicanery attempted for what it was!
An attempt to subvert Parliament and to impose an undemocratic interpretation of what Brexit means.

If Britain wants to leave, let the choice of what No-Deal means be the basis of that and at least have another referendum...

Basically Boris Johnson has been labelled a liar by the highest UK court!
I wonder if he is considering an appeal to the ECJ? (Sarcasm of course)

robinph

Johnson will be making a statement in the US within half an hour apparently.

Be interesting to see what kind of noises he makes. Is it going to be that the judges are enemies of the people, how terrible it is that MP's now get to go back and do their job, try to distract us with a dead cat or just say that we are working really hard on getting a deal with the EU but it's top secret and you can't know about it until after they have said no and I'll then cry about how the EU are big meanies?

Charles Babbage

robinph wrote: »

What happens if the HoC is open, but the leader of the house (Mogg) doesn't turn up to set out each days order of business?

Mogg's position is fatally compromised, as he is supposed to represent the house but went to the Queen to illegally close it.

Boris might survive, but Mogg needs to go.

Zubeneschamali

prunudo wrote: »

So nobody will be there from the UK side to negotiate any deal or amendments.

There aren't any ongoing negotiations and there aren't going to be any amendments before October. Johnson's crew just took May's deal and crossed out the backstop and pretended that was a real proposal, and the EU rejected it instantly.

Next thing that happens is Westminster somehow gets to ask for an extension to at least Jan 31st and a general election. The EU may force a longer extension just to quiet things down a bit.

CrabRevolution

It's interesting how one of the major theories driving brexit is that every British organisation or institution is superior to any other in the world, but that the EU is inhibiting it. British companies are being held back by EU trading arrangements, EU regulations are making the UK suffer, EU courts are making the "wrong" decisions that the UK has to abide by, EU immigration is bad for the Health System etc.

Yet when these very same businesses, experts, doctors, judges etc. come to conclusions that aren't explicitly pro-brexit, we're told that they don't know what they're talking about, or are part of some devious plot to undermine the UK.

The Brexiters say UK judges are traitors.....but simultaneously want them to be the highest law authority in the UK.

They say big corporations are evil elitists....but promise to create a regulatory wasteland to help them make as much money as possible.

Chips Lovell

In theory, Parliament could now seize control of the process. If it could agree on what kind of Brexit arrangement it wants, it could essentially force to government to pursue that line.

However, I think another election is now the most likely outcome. Johnson wants one because he think he can win. Corbyn wants one too, but only if crashing out on October 31 is ruled out (which it now is).

Quite possible that Corbyn will now agree to vote for an election in exchange for Boris requesting another lengthy extension from the EU. Johnson has nowhere else to go.

If there is an election, the campaign will be dominated by Brexit and will be vicious. There's a chance it could lead to the biggest realignment in British politics since the 1920s.

Quin_Dub

##Mod Note##

Another reminder , several one liners deleted since this was first posted.

Don't make us have to ban people.

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Mod Note

I know this is a fast moving thread and, today in particular, people may be quite excited/passionate about what's happening. However, please do read the charter and heed it. In particular;

Please remember that we are not a blog, a news feed nor an announcement forum - if you are not willing to discuss what you post, then please don't post it. Thread will be locked and posters may face a sanction for repeatedly breaking this rule. This forum is for discussion and debate and we will not tolerate soapboxing. If you are here to "shout everyone down" with your opinions, we will see you as a negative contributor to the forum and will take appropriate action. High standards of debate and quality posts / threads are required. Repeated one liner, low quality style posts will result in a ban.

Keep your language civil, particularly when referring to other posters and people in the public eye. Using unsavoury language does not add to your argument. Examples would be referring to other people or groups as scumbags, crusties, sheeple, shills, trolls, traitors or saying that recently deceased people should “rot in hell” or similar. Repeated use of terms like that will result in a ban from the forum.

You can make your point without having to resort to unparliamentary language.

Inquitus

Chips Lovell wrote: »

If there is an election, the campaign will be dominated by Brexit and will be vicious. There's a chance it could lead to the biggest realignment in British politics since the 1920s.

The remain vote is splintered across various parties, in FPTP unless the Brexit Party cannibalises the Tories we could well see Johnson returned with a working majority. Corbyn is deeply unpopular, if Labour changed leader, and came out with a clear Brexit position that would shift things, but its as likely as Johnson resigning today.

Zubeneschamali

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Quite possible that Corbyn will now agree to vote for an election in exchange for Boris requesting another lengthy extension from the EU. Johnson has nowhere else to go.

He could do the right thing and fire Cummings, resign as PM, announce he won't run in the upcoming election and go back to doing comedy columns in the Telegraph.