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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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quokula

J Mysterio wrote: »

Try as I might, I just can't understand the logic of creeps like Michael Gove.

What he is saying is the survival of the Tory party is more important than the evisveration of the UK in a No Deal crashout. That's madness. The height of irresponsibility and selfishness. How he can say that without blushing is beyond me, what a cretin.

Because the UK media give them a complete free pass on any scrutiny, so they can brazenly say stuff like that and most voters don't even realise the implications.

Professor Moriarty

FrankPoll. wrote: »

Says who

Is there really a handful of capitalists sending Britain to the wall

My assumption is no deal is s bluff but a bad one so al the disaster capitalist talk is misplaced IMO

Here's two to get you started. Crispin Odey, a major donator to Boris Johnson. Ben Habib, a Brexit Party MEP.

Rjd2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm considerably more nuanced than you might think I am..

You aren't though. :P

Anyone who criticises Corbyn is brainwashed by the right wing media. God forbid you can form an opinion by yourself without the aid of the telegraph.

Corbyn is right on more things than the tories when it comes to politics, but on Brexit he has been poor. He should have been calling for a second referendum a long time ago and making an argument to remain.

Their is no Brexit that won't hurt the people who he represents and supposedly fights for. You may such a stance is politically naive, but if somehow Brexit happens, then he has to take some blame for it.

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Try as I might, I just can't understand the logic of creeps like Michael Gove.

What he is saying is the survival of the Tory party is more important than the evisveration of the UK in a No Deal crashout. That's madness. The height of irresponsibility and selfishness. How he can say that without blushing is beyond me, what a cretin.

I can't read the article, he isn't backing a no deal is he?

Just saying vote for the Boris deal or the party is ****ed?

Doubt the Boris deal would be great, but would be some effort for it to be worse than no deal.

Professor Moriarty

Rjd2 wrote: »

You aren't though. :P

Anyone who criticises Corbyn is brainwashed by the right wing media. God forbid you can form an opinion by yourself without the aid of the telegraph.

Corbyn is right on more things than the tories when it comes to politics, but on Brexit he has been poor. He should have been calling for a second referendum a long time ago and making an argument to remain.

Their is no Brexit that won't hurt the people who he represents and supposedly fights for. You may such a stance is politically naive, but if somehow Brexit happens, then he has to take some blame for it.

In fact, had a committed Remainer been leader of Labour in June 2016, the current debacle wouldn't exist. Yet again, Corbyn was watery at best. His lack of commitment was a decisive factor in Leave's win.

J Mysterio

Rjd2 wrote: »

I can't read the article, he isn't backing a no deal is he?

Just saying vote for the Boris deal or the party is ****ed?

Doubt the Boris deal would be great, but would be some effort for it to be worse than no deal.

There is no Boris Deal. There is the May negotiated WA and there is a No Deal crashout.

The EU are kind enough after all this time and all this time wasting to still accept fresh ideas or a change of position on red lines, but nothing is forthcoming and it doesn't look like anything serious will be tabled. Cherries, cherries and more cherries.

What Gove is effectively saying is that the UK must leave on Oct 31 - deal or no deal - to save the Tory party. Never mind the country.

Patser

Enzokk wrote: »

Spain is looking for reciprocal treatment for the citizens in the UK and British citizens in Spain.

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1176011727856685056?s=20

So essentially it comes down to how the UK will treat Spanish citizens post Brexit, that will determine how their citizens are treated in Spain. Thank goodness for those immigrants from the UK that they have a compassionate and empathetic Home Office that will ensure they will only get the best of both worlds.

I wonder is it pure coincidence Spain come out with this, a few days after the UK Dept for Brexit posted a few tweets directly aimed at the damage a no deal would do to Spain - UK imports billions in cars, fruit and veg, also British tourists spend millions in Spain, so we can mess you up Spain.

Today Spain responds 100,000s retired UK ex-pats live here, who'll suddenly find their lives a lot harder, most will have to return home and their Spanish homes will be worthless. Your problem then UK

Igotadose

Patser wrote: »

I wonder is it pure coincidence Spain come out with this, a few days after the UK Dept for Brexit posted a few tweets directly aimed at the damage a no deal would do to Spain - UK imports billions in cars, fruit and veg, also British tourists spend millions in Spain, so we can mess you up Spain.

Today Spain responds 100,000s retired UK ex-pats live here, who'll suddenly find their lives a lot harder, most will have to return home and their Spanish homes will be worthless. Your problem then UK

UK brought to its knees, having to go hat in hand to Europe, by the combined might of Ireland, Spain and Luxembourg. Bluster'll only get you so far, BoJo's at his 'level of incompetence'.

VinLieger

Patser wrote: »

I wonder is it pure coincidence Spain come out with this, a few days after the UK Dept for Brexit posted a few tweets directly aimed at the damage a no deal would do to Spain - UK imports billions in cars, fruit and veg, also British tourists spend millions in Spain, so we can mess you up Spain.

Today Spain responds 100,000s retired UK ex-pats live here, who'll suddenly find their lives a lot harder, most will have to return home and their Spanish homes will be worthless. Your problem then UK

Don't forget the added burden placed on the NHS of that many pensioners suddenly arriving home.

Also the beautiful irony will be that many likely voted for brexit yet when they return they wont be eligible for the NHS as you need to be a resident for 6 months'.

ArmaniJeanss

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In fact, had a committed Remainer been leader of Labour in June 2016, the current debacle wouldn't exist. Yet again, Corbyn was watery at best. His lack of commitment was a decisive factor in Leave's win.

Nothing much Corbyn could do in June 2016.
Cameron never reached out to him for cross-party support at all because it wasn't needed. Because Dave was an absolute expert at winning these things (2 elections, AV voting, Scotland, 100% success rate, mr invincible) and didn't need anyone sharing the credit.
So Corbyn was pretty much side-lined by the leaders of the Remain campaign, and the broadcasting rules which require equal coverage of both sides concentrated on the 'government' side.

Corbyn gave a few weak interviews, and a few actually excellent written columns which got roundly ignored.

ambro25

Patser wrote: »

I wonder is it pure coincidence Spain come out with this, a few days after the UK Dept for Brexit posted a few tweets directly aimed at the damage a no deal would do to Spain - UK imports billions in cars, fruit and veg, also British tourists spend millions in Spain, so we can mess you up Spain.

Today Spain responds 100,000s retired UK ex-pats live here, who'll suddenly find their lives a lot harder, most will have to return home and their Spanish homes will be worthless. Your problem then UK

France and Luxembourg have long taken, and publicised, similar reciprocity-based legislative measures concerning resident Brits potentially caught out by Brexit.

Other EU member states most probably as well, but I take my daily news from UK, FR and LU, so might have missed them.

That said, the tone of such earlier publicising was always friendlier/positively spun, with the focus on the continuity afforded to those Brits, rather than the rights taken away from them. So yes, you could be onto something here. An unfortunate development if so, as that is only going to attract more rethoric.

An Ciarraioch

If the UK is still in the EU in November, four parties would poll over 20%:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176087917149728768

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Try as I might, I just can't understand the logic of creeps like Michael Gove.

What he is saying is the survival of the Tory party is more important than the evisveration of the UK in a No Deal crashout. That's madness. The height of irresponsibility and selfishness. How he can say that without blushing is beyond me, what a cretin.

What is more galling is that during the leadership election he was open to the idea of extending article 50. Now all of a sudden it has become a matter of life and death of the party?

It seems like, from twitter, the ruling from the Supreme Court is going to be made tomorrow at 10h30.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176101638634950656?s=20

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Nothing much Corbyn could do in June 2016.
Cameron never reached out to him for cross-party support at all because it wasn't needed. Because Dave was an absolute expert at winning these things (2 elections, AV voting, Scotland, 100% success rate, mr invincible) and didn't need anyone sharing the credit.
So Corbyn was pretty much side-lined by the leaders of the Remain campaign, and the broadcasting rules which require equal coverage of both sides concentrated on the 'government' side.

Corbyn gave a few weak interviews, and a few actually excellent written columns which got roundly ignored.

He has a long history of Eurosceptism and this was a major factor in his watery 'endorsement' of Remain as Leader of the Opposition. That and his lack of charisma meant that populists like Farage and Johnson shone much brighter.

WomanSkirtFan8

Shelga wrote: »

Dominic Raab saying he is confident a deal can be done by mid October. He is living on cloud cuckoo land.

always was. I mean this is the guy who apparently didn't know how important the Dover to calais is as a trading route is to the UK's economy.

Professor Moriarty

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

always was. I mean this is the guy who apparently didn't know how important the Dover to calais is as a trading route is to the UK's economy.

Anything Raab says must be understood in the context of personal ambition. He'll say or do anything if it suits his political future. Truth and reality is a distant second.

A Shropshire Lad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Anything Raab says must be understood in the context of personal ambition. He'll say or do anything if it suits his political future. Truth and reality is a distant second.

Raab is the embodiment of an untrustworthy slippery politician. A mouth full of soundbites and an unconvincing grin. Would stab anyone in the back for gain, as he did with May.

Professor Moriarty

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Raab is the embodiment of an untrustworthy slippery politician. A mouth full of soundbites and an unconvincing grin. Would stab anyone in the back for gain, as he did with May.

Very well put.

Calina

According to David Allen Green, UK Supreme court result to be issued at 10.30 UK tomorrow.

Tell me how

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Raab is the embodiment of an untrustworthy slippery politician. A mouth full of soundbites and an unconvincing grin. Would stab anyone in the back for gain, as he did with May.

He doesn't have the charisma to pull off the quintessential stereotype politician of shaking your hand while stabbing you in the back and smiling to your face.

Beggars belief how he has gotten so far with such an empty arsenal. He couldn't even feign intelligence on the matter through sheer bravado in the manner David Davis could while being equally bereft of any significant knowledge or strategy.

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As a Leader of the Opposition in a time of crisis, Corbyn is useless. His political ideology is at variance with most party voters and the large majority of the British public. His position on Brexit is at variance with party members and most MPs. He remains a charisma free zone. He has dithered and prevaricated on Brexit (probably deliberately so) to the point where nobody can say what Labour's position is on Brexit. Even if there were a definitive position, it would change tomorrow. His failure to lead throughout the Brexit fiasco is a disgrace. It is no wonder that his approval rating have been consistently dire despite the dreadful performances of May and Johnson. He is the Tory party's best friend.

He also bears some responsibility for Brexit because, as leader of the Labour party, he completely failed to mobilise the vote in the referendum. He barely campaigned during the referendum campaign and helped to give an open goal to the lying corrupt and criminal antics of the vote leave campaigns

Corbyn is partially responsible for Brexit, because he wants brexit to happen, and he used his position as the leader of the 2nd biggest political party in Britain to help bring that about.

briany

Tell me how wrote: »

Beggars belief how he has gotten so far with such an empty arsenal. He couldn't even feign intelligence on the matter through sheer bravado in the manner David Davis could while being equally bereft of any significant knowledge or strategy.

They don't call him Dominic 'I didn't know the Dover-Calais route was so important' Raab for nothing.

serfboard

Tell me how wrote: »

Beggars belief how he has gotten so far with such an empty arsenal.

Whenever someone posts here something about a Tory moron, I first make the assumption that they represent a safe Tory seat. And, of course he does:

Wikipedia wrote:

Raab was elected to Parliament at the 2010 election to represent Esher and Walton, a safe Conservative seat in Surrey.

And Raab didn't have to challenge the sitting MP, Ian Taylor, who stood down at the 2010 election. Funny enough, Taylor was a Europhile - this was posted in 2009:

Conservative Home wrote:

With David Curry, also leaving the Commons, Mr Taylor is one of the parliamentary party's last EU enthusiasts. Ken Clarke MP and John Gummer MP will be even more isolated in the next Parliament.

And after that was written, John Gummer also stood down as an MP in 2010.

NotToScale

That statement about Dover was fairly shocking as he seemed to be looking at just the bulk tonnage of freight, rather than the type of traffic. Dover is hugely busy for Ro-Ro and passenger traffic and a lot of the short shelf-life urgent freight, notably food, comes in on Ro-Ro routes, not in bulk container freight.

There's a large amount of data on UK ports, in very easy to understand format from the UK Department for Transport and it's extremely well laid out and infographical. It's fairly inexcusable for anyone in officialdom or the media to be commentating on this topic without being briefed at this stage, yet I'm seeing and hearing it all the time.

I remember during the bank crisis here, pretty much everyone had a fairly developed knowledge of economics within a few months and there really weren't that many people here making stupid statements. In the UK it seems like a lot of people are still quite happy to just quote things said in the Express or whatever. I mean we could have easily gone down a rabbit hole of eurosceptic, blame someone else nonsense during the financial crisis, and a few did, but the vast majority did not and generally correctly blamed our own policies and Fianna Fail took a huge electoral hit for that, and rightly so - that's how political responsibility should work.

In the UK, however, they're jousting at overseas windmills and imagined monsters to solve domestic problems.

https:// assets.publishing.service.gov.uk /government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/762200/port-freight-statistics-2017.pdf

Delete the extra spaces (I can't post URLs yet)

murphaph

Patser wrote: »

I wonder is it pure coincidence Spain come out with this, a few days after the UK Dept for Brexit posted a few tweets directly aimed at the damage a no deal would do to Spain - UK imports billions in cars, fruit and veg, also British tourists spend millions in Spain, so we can mess you up Spain.

Today Spain responds 100,000s retired UK ex-pats live here, who'll suddenly find their lives a lot harder, most will have to return home and their Spanish homes will be worthless. Your problem then UK

And it'll be the poorer pensioners living off the state pension that will have to go home. This cohort does NOT contribute all that much to the Spanish economy as they don't have much to contribute. The better off ones will be able to stay in Spain.

J Mysterio

I've seen this statement from No.10 being replied to on Twitter in a number of different contexts, but the shocking thing is the statement itself. Official No.10 spokespeople are now using this type of language? 'Remainiacs'?

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175802705891274753

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I've seen this statement from No.10 being replied to on Twitter in a number of different contexts, but the shocking thing is the statement itself. Official No.10 spokespeople are now using this type of language? 'Remainiacs'?

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1175802705891274753

You'll not that "the public" in the eyes of No.10 are those who voted to leave. If you're not a Brexiteer, you don't even exist.

Jizique

serfboard wrote: »

Whenever someone posts here something about a Tory moron, I first make the assumption that they represent a safe Tory seat. And, of course he does:

And Raab didn't have to challenge the sitting MP, Ian Taylor, who stood down at the 2010 election. Funny enough, Taylor was a Europhile - this was posted in 2009:

And after that was written, John Gummer also stood down as an MP in 2010.

Constituency voted remain - wealthy city types who enjoy their ski and summer hols, kids at uni etc

Joe_ Public

Dont think anyone could argue this has been a good weekend for Jeremy Corbyn, some of his brexit stance is beginning to appear pigheaded now, rather than brave and rational as it needs to be. Stubborn personality, bad advice, maybe both. How much long term damage it does remains to be seen.

I would argue two things in relation to labour leader, though. Firstly, all his colleagues and rivals arguing for a second referendum with a remain position never, as far as i am aware, state clearly how that referendum would be framed. How would they go about it? What precisely are the yes/no options on any ballot paper? I heard Tom Watson restating his position on this this morning, but he didn't state nor was asked what the terms of that second vote would be. The only people i've heard actually addressing this point is the labour leadership and a few of his close colleagues. Not saying anyone has to like what they're advancing and maybe it's naive and unworkable anyway, but at least they are trying to address it. I give them a bit of credit for that. The Lib Dems, quite cleverly you'd have to say, just ran away from it.

Secondly, i dont personally see how any significant blame attaches to Corbyn for the leave vote. I mean, 65% of labour voters opted for remain which looks about right to me. Maybe people think that's in spite of him, maybe so, but i dont know how much higher people think that should have been. I've heard it said that corbyn then couldn't wait to have A50 invoked, but it was never his decision anyway and the reality is if he had dithered on it, Theresa May would very likely have gone to the country and campaigned on Labour "disrespecting the will of the people". Whatever his own personal preference, he was caught in a bind on that one.

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

... Yet again, Corbyn was watery at best. His lack of commitment was a decisive factor in Leave's win.

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

Lars