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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

I mean after all this time.

All this time week in week out.

How do individuals still think this is new , a revelation or a change in direction.

Media consumption has alot to answer for.

The reality on the ground has not changed, but it is fair to say that the commentary around it has shifted. There was a time when the EU and Ireland were being very cagey about what would happen on the border in a no-deal scenario, even though it was obvious enough that a hard border would be required.

I suppose if you think that there is a reasonably good chance that there will be a deal, there is nothing much to be gained from going into detail about a sensitive and divisive issue that you hope wont arise anyway. When you are staring no-deal in the face though, and that issue becomes more likely to happen, you have to be clear so that people know what is coming.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

True, we can't say anything for certain until such a time it happens and we gauge the reactions. But the depth of anger among very many labour members towards watson seems pretty clear to me, just judging from twitter reactions anyway. I was a bit surprised myself at the scale of it, but it is definitely there. Of course he has his supporters, and brexit has to be a complication, but the membership remains pro-corbyn, that i can see, and i dont see that immediately changing. Watson becoming leader, if even temporarily, would be hugely divisive and, at a minimum, cause a huge rift. Now, not saying the move against him was necessarily right or even prudent, but given his unquestionably provocative behaviour in recent months, i dont believe we should be all that shocked to see it all finally come to a head.

Yes, only a new election will tell what support he has with the base. I agree the pro-Corbyn part of Labour is very vocal against Watson, no doubt about that. But is that reflected among the wider voters as well?

I don't know what the support for Corbyn is among Labour members, I suspect it is still quite high but they would surely have noticed that his performance regarding Brexit has meant a steady decline in the polls for Labour. Could he pull another rabbit out of the hat in a new election and outperform the polls? Yes he can, but if that is your hope then you have to realize he is not the chosen one. Maybe a stepping stone but the poison from the press the past 50 years will not be easily forgotten for many voters and Corbyn conveniently falls into a category they have been printing stories against all this time.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, only a new election will tell what support he has with the base. I agree the pro-Corbyn part of Labour is very vocal against Watson, no doubt about that. But is that reflected among the wider voters as well?

I don't know what the support for Corbyn is among Labour members, I suspect it is still quite high but they would surely have noticed that his performance regarding Brexit has meant a steady decline in the polls for Labour. Could he pull another rabbit out of the hat in a new election and outperform the polls? Yes he can, but if that is your hope then you have to realize he is not the chosen one. Maybe a stepping stone but the poison from the press the past 50 years will not be easily forgotten for many voters and Corbyn conveniently falls into a category they have been printing stories against all this time.

I think if there was a membership vote on Watson's position, he would lose. IMpossible to say for certain, but i'd be fairly confident of that. Latest polling figures i saw suggest Corbyns popularity among labour membership had dropped to around high 50s, it had been up in mid 70s at one point, but it's still not far off the mark around the time he was elected. Its not as high as he'd like it, for sure, but he definitely had a good period around the no deal legislation time so would i'm sure have expected a decent bump. Whether all this damages him, we'll have to wait and see.

I'm personally no dyed in the wool corbynista, by any stretch, but i do feel strongly that his representation in MSM isn't entirely fair and am willing to give him some credit for his brexit position, although that looks increasingly a bust electorally so looks possibly reckless stubbornly adhering to it. One thing, though, i'm not convinced any media savaging of him does as much damage as people assume. All that "dangerous extremist marxist, trotskyite" stuff goes over the heads of anyone under 40 i think, they dont relate to it, but are interested in climate, tuition fees, housing, all the stuff corbyn prefers to talk about. I dont think the media hostility hurt corbyn in 2017 and not sure it'll hurt this time either. If the brexit leakage can stop, i can still see hope for them. But that's a reasonably big if at this stage admittedly.

Shelga

Dominic Raab saying he is confident a deal can be done by mid October. He is living on cloud cuckoo land.

beggars_bush

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1175699316012396545

Some interesting stuff going on in the times

Strazdas

beggars_bush wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1175699316012396545

Some interesting stuff going on in the times

'Close friend' being his girlfriend or mistress if you read the longer reports.

Harry Palmr

The Guardian live blog for the Labour party conference is like a very long car crash

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/22/labour-conference-latest-news-jeremy-corbyn-calls-for-party-to-have-two-deputy-leaders-live-news

Corbyn's cabal is so at odds with the party as a whole his position would surely be untenable were a GE not likely soon, as it is they are probably stuck with him and somehow they look very likely to do worse than the Tories. Utterly dysfunctional.

VinLieger

Strazdas wrote: »

'Close friend' being his girlfriend or mistress if you read the longer reports.

Do we know a bit more about what the loud arguments with Carrie Symonds were about now?

Strazdas

VinLieger wrote: »

Do we know a bit more about what the loud arguments with Carrie Symonds were about now?

He's been with a lot of women apparently (one wonders if he has been 'dating' more than one at the same time). They always seem to be young ambitious types trying to further their careers.

A Shropshire Lad

Shelga wrote: »

Dominic Raab saying he is confident a deal can be done by mid October. .

Not if hes involved

johnnyskeleton

Deleted User wrote: »

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has told Sophy Ridge on Sunday that a 'No-deal Brexit' will mean a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Is that Junker saying times up to Ireland, we have tried to stand by you but now its time you moved on the Backstop.

Basically, the UK have been pedalling the idea that a hard border can be avoided by good intentions and non legally binding promises not to impose a border while ignoring the reasons why a border would be necessary. Juncker is basically saying that times up Britain telling lies about a hard border and they must agree to the backstop as a legally binding insurance policy in, what the UK gov says is the highly unlikely scenario, that they cant find any other solution to the border.

So UK says they need a year but can come up with a solution. Great. Enter the backstop to show us youre serious or else leave on no deal and cause a hard border. No more dillusional talk of vague solutions. Thats the message.

johnnyskeleton

beggars_bush wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1175699316012396545

Some interesting stuff going on in the times

Mod note:

Misuse of power and the personal life of the UK PM are tangental to Brexit and might be suitable to a thread of their own.

An Ciarraioch

Colm McCarthy had a very instructive article on the differing approaches of the Irish and UK constitutions as to how referenda should be conducted and implemented - inferring (though he doesn't explicitly state it) that a hypothetical Irexit would have required an initial referendum to begin negotiations, followed by a second one to decide whether to leave on such terms or to stay:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/colm-mccarthy-camerons-tragic-spin-of-bottle-to-quit-eu-on-undefined-terms-38521249.html

A Shropshire Lad

Ireland has the concept of Referenda explicity written into the consitiution.

The UK doesnt have that concept. In fact, they dont have a written constitution.

Whats happening in the UK is a country slowly falling apart because the people and the parliament have been put at odds with one another

Strazdas

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Ireland has the concept of Referenda explicity written into the consitiution.

The UK doesnt have that concept. In fact, they dont have a written constitution.

Whats happening in the UK is a country slowly falling apart because the people and the parliament have been put at odds with one another

Referendums have very little status or legality within the UK system. Cameron totally abused the process by announcing the referendum result was binding and that it could never be overturned (knowing this to be a lie and nonsense).

Infini

[Deleted User] wrote: »

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has told Sophy Ridge on Sunday that a 'No-deal Brexit' will mean a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Is that Junker saying times up to Ireland, we have tried to stand by you but now its time you moved on the Backstop.

Everyone knows a hard border was an inevitability in yhe event of a crash out. Publically they wouldn't say but no doubt privately theres been discussions on this.

Realistically though in the short to medium term this isnt the main issue the main circus will be at Dover but if theres no cop on from the British some customs measures will ultimately be needed.

That being said the POLITICAL situation in Northern Ireland will be the one to watch because not only would the backstop be a mandatory part of any agreement the Brits sign but likely the pressure could shift to a Border Poll for a united ireland in a few years and a passing of that will negate the border as an issue after that.

The DUP will pay a heavy price for their idiocy they were offered the best deal given the cirumstances but turned their nose up at it. When things hit the fan and jobs and other buisnesses crash there will be murder over it and the DUP are the ones who caused it.

briany

Infini wrote: »

Everyone knows a hard border was an inevitability in yhe event of a crash out. Publically they wouldn't say but no doubt privately theres been discussions on this.

Realistically though in the short to medium term this isnt the main issue the main circus will be at Dover but if theres no cop on from the British some customs measures will ultimately be needed.

That being said the POLITICAL situation in Northern Ireland will be the one to watch because not only would the backstop be a mandatory part of any agreement the Brits sign but likely the pressure could shift to a Border Poll for a united ireland in a few years and a passing of that will negate the border as an issue after that.

The DUP will pay a heavy price for their idiocy they were offered the best deal given the cirumstances but turned their nose up at it. When things hit the fan and jobs and other buisnesses crash there will be murder over it and the DUP are the ones who caused it.

I think the idea that a day of reckoning will come for Brexiteers is a bit naive. We've had three years to see just how slippery these characters are. The DUP will just deflect, deflect, deflect, and their voter base will accept this. If anything I wonder if economic hardship will entrench the DUP base being that poor economic and social conditions seem to enhance sectarianism and division.

NotToScale

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Ireland has the concept of Referenda explicity written into the consitiution.

The UK doesnt have that concept. In fact, they dont have a written constitution.

Whats happening in the UK is a country slowly falling apart because the people and the parliament have been put at odds with one another

The UK's constitution is actually mostly written. It's just not codified into a single document.
It's basically just a large web of references to hundreds (if not thousands) of acts of parliament, and some other documents, accepted protocols and procedures and, of course, all the judgements in common law precedent that have built up over the history of the country.

The problem is that the UK's constitution is also a bit of a state of mind and is largely based on people acting in good faith. There was an article in the Economist back in 2018 (look it up, as I can't paste yet) that referred to the 'Britain’s good-chap model of government is coming apart.' as people have stopped taking the traditions of these systems as seriously as they ought to.

In a written constitutional system like our own, or like that in the US, France, Germany etc there would be a clearer sense of where the limits are, although even in those systems, someone actually has to observe, use and enforce the rules for them to be meaningful - and many rights in written constitutions are also implied by court interpretation, rather than expressly written. If you look at the situation in the US at the moment for example, Trump has probably committed a lot of acts that should be triggering impeachment proceedings under their constitution, but if the political bodies just let it all slide by and don't act, their checks and balances will become meaningless.

In the UK, the current constitutional case before the Supreme Court, and probably others that may yet follow, will be fundamental in showing whether the UK's constitution has any real meaning or not. UK parliamentarians (and also those sitting in the Lords, on the Privy Council and other bodies) also need to step up to the plate and start holding the system to its own standards. If they don't, those standards slip and change and effectively the whole fabric that holds British political systems together will unravel and become something else. That's how dangerous the current situation is!

NotToScale

briany wrote: »

I think the idea that a day of reckoning will come for Brexiteers is a bit naive. We've had three years to see just how slippery these characters are. The DUP will just deflect, deflect, deflect, and their voter base will accept this. If anything I wonder if economic hardship will entrench the DUP base being that poor economic and social conditions seem to enhance sectarianism and division.

I'm not sure about this. I think the DUP may well discover that they're left with a smaller support base - i.e. the hardcore of Northern Ireland Unionism. Where they'll lose out is with voters who've perhaps voted along sectarian lines due to just inertia or who have been very focused on constituency politics and vote for who they perceive to be a strong representative for their area or community. Also, many of those from more analytical and educated backgrounds are probably starting to really put what the DUP stands for under a microscope in a way they might not have a few years ago.

There's a growing support for the Alliance Party and other cross-community parties like the Greens that were not born of the societal divides in Northern Ireland.

A lot of commentators, and the DUP itself, seem to underestimate the pragmatism and progressiveness that has emerged in Northern Irish society. A lot of people are sick to their back teeth of the endless instability and us/them nonsense and just see themselves as Northern Irish.

If you couple that with the DUP's socially regressive positions on LGBT rights and abortion, I think you're also going to see a hardening but shrinking core of support. Those issues aren't about national identity politics, they're huge societal ones and there's been a shift in attitudes.

If the Northern Irish economy goes into turmoil because of DUP policies, I can't really see that been forgiven by business and farming communities either.

In Britain it's a bit similar in some ways as the Tories are turning into UKIP/Brexit party and are driving a lot of the middle into the arms of the Lib Dems. It'll be interesting to see what happens as a lot of their new voters are hardliners who typically vote, or tended to vote for far right parties, while they're losing the 'respectable conservatives' to the centre.

If the Lib Dems play it right, they could really clean up, but they will need candidates in more constituencies and also will need a clear message on a wider range of policies.

I think in the UK you could be witnessing the end of the 'capital' vs 'organised labour' dichotomy of politics, which in reality is something that belongs in the mid 20th century. It's a country that could benefit a lot from PR voting and a more centrist and pragmatic type of politics, but whether that will ever happen or not is all to play for.

Brexit, in my view anyway, could end up being something that transforms the UK into a country that, ironically, could politically look a lot more like other Northern European countries, including Ireland, with politics becoming more about a centrist consensus building process.

It's impossible to predict this far out, but I really don't think the UK electorate is as dogmatic and lacking pragmatism as the current political commentary or the tabloids.

FrankPoll.

I think the DUP will lose mainstream voters back to the UUP if brexit goes wrong

An Ciarraioch

The official Labour executive motion on Brexit - biggest problem is the contradiction between the promise to avoid a hard Border, yet only offering a "close relationship with" the Single Market:

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1175782655629123584

jochenstacker

NotToScale wrote: »

The UK's constitution is actually mostly written. It's just not codified into a single document.
It's basically just a large web of references to hundreds (if not thousands) of acts of parliament, and some other documents, accepted protocols and procedures and, of course, all the judgements in common law precedent that have built up over the history of the country.

This description kinda projects a mental image of several large folders containing thousands of hand scrawled noted on various pieces of paper including napkins, that, over time, have been dropped several times, gathered up, stuffed into a large box that has been upended several times to look for a specific scrap of paper with people rummaging through them to find stuff and, on occasion, fistfuls of scrap paper get stuffed into the box.

edit:
Just like the English language, which is a total mashup, I thought this kind of eccentric attitude was what made England so charming and endearing.
It also means that the country cannot handle any kind of serious internal conflict like Brexit.
I am saddened to see England in such a sorry state.

AbusesToilets

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Colm McCarthy had a very instructive article on the differing approaches of the Irish and UK constitutions as to how referenda should be conducted and implemented - inferring (though he doesn't explicitly state it) that a hypothetical Irexit would have required an initial referendum to begin negotiations, followed by a second one to decide whether to leave on such terms or to stay:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/colm-mccarthy-camerons-tragic-spin-of-bottle-to-quit-eu-on-undefined-terms-38521249.html

Any chance of a copy paste? Paywalled

Hoppy Jack

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Any chance of a copy paste? Paywalled

Indo articles aren’t paywalled. Just register an email address to access

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The official Labour executive motion on Brexit - biggest problem is the contradiction between the promise to avoid a hard Border, yet only offering a "close relationship with" the Single Market:

twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1175782655629123584

Labour want workers rights and the common market / single market but without free movement.

They want full access to the EU market while being able to nationalise industries and blocking foreign workers. A country wide closed shop if you will.

It's a different set of cherries they want to pick, it's been called sneaky brexit.

EU has been adamant about the four freedoms being indivisible if that's any clue to how it will go down over there.

fash

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1175832293363126273
More "project fear for you but not for me".

Professor Moriarty

fash wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1175832293363126273
More "project fear for you but not for me".

Here's the IT article. From the article:

Both British politicians and diplomats have briefed counterparts strongly that the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for Ireland are so disastrous that compromise is likely, senior Irish officials say.

And:

However, it now emerges that Mr Barclay, other British ministers and British diplomats have delivered even harder messages in private around Europe in recent weeks.

The British briefings have been relayed to Dublin through a network of business and diplomatic contacts.

So, behind Ireland's back, the Tories have been hyping up the disastrous consequences for their nearest and dearest neighbour if the UK doesn't get its way. What would you expect from a donkey but a kick.

FrankPoll.

No- Deal brexit is a big bluff and no-one in Europe is falling for it

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here's the IT article. From the article:

Both British politicians and diplomats have briefed counterparts strongly that the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for Ireland are so disastrous that compromise is likely, senior Irish officials say.

And:

However, it now emerges that Mr Barclay, other British ministers and British diplomats have delivered even harder messages in private around Europe in recent weeks.

The British briefings have been relayed to Dublin through a network of business and diplomatic contacts.

So, behind Ireland's back, the Tories have been hyping up the disastrous consequences for their nearest and dearest neighbour if the UK doesn't get its way. What would you expect from a donkey but a kick.

I feel very confident with the idea of a phonecall (not that it is being suggested) between Michel Barnier and Simon Coveney ahead of Barnier meeting Barclay.

Both Coveney and Barnier will A, have been expecting this and B, will know how to deal with it.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here's the IT article. From the article:

Both British politicians and diplomats have briefed counterparts strongly that the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for Ireland are so disastrous that compromise is likely, senior Irish officials say.

And:

However, it now emerges that Mr Barclay, other British ministers and British diplomats have delivered even harder messages in private around Europe in recent weeks.

The British briefings have been relayed to Dublin through a network of business and diplomatic contacts.

So, behind Ireland's back, the Tories have been hyping up the disastrous consequences for their nearest and dearest neighbour if the UK doesn't get its way. What would you expect from a donkey but a kick.

What do they mean by 'disastrous'? Nearly every economic forecast says No Deal would be nothing remotely like 2008-09 (the crash cost the state something like €60bn and led to 15% unemployment).