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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson's big wheeze was to prevaricate and deflect until the very last minute and then dump his plan on the table hoping to force the EU to accept.

I don't think he is any sort of genius, but he can't be that thick. It has to be just nonsense to distract from his real plan which is No Deal (Not My Fault).

That is also a really, really stupid plan, whether it succeeds or not, but it's not as stupid as drinking the Brexiteers koolaid and imagining the EU is going to blink.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think he is any sort of genius, but he can't be that thick. It has to be just nonsense to distract from his real plan which is No Deal (Not My Fault).

That is also a really, really stupid plan, whether it succeeds or not, but it's not as stupid as drinking the Brexiteers koolaid and imagining the EU is going to blink.

Well, everyone knows the EU always caves. He's painted himself into a corner with his rhetoric. Full-throated oomph, bulldog spirit, boosterism, yadda yadda. You know you're losing when May starts looking more statesmanlike. Mind you, he's still miles ahead of Corbyn in the polls though, which tells you all you need to know about Corbyn.

An Ciarraioch

Foster's speech to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce seems to be mainly backing Johnson's SPS plan rather than saying anything new - open to NI-specific solutions to protect supply chains, but remains opposed to either version of the backstop, or a customs union:

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/unique-history-and-geography-dup-leader-arlene-foster-opens-door-to-northonly-solutions-in-brexit-deal-38512138.html

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Foster's speech to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce seems to bel

Irrelevant now - Johnson doesn't have a majority even with the votes the Tories bought from the DUP. Foster is just keeping up appearances in case Johnson lasts long enough to pay his tab.

Leroy42

Johnson is not looking for a new deal from the EU (although may revert to NI only backstop).

His whole plan is to get a deal through HoC, that is what all the bluster and threats are about. Proroging is about reducing the time that MPs have to waste not arriving at any consensus. He will try to force through the plan with little or no debate.

Parliament back on 14th, queens speech, days debate. EU will only pass if the HoC already has so it has to be done by 18th so Johnson can deliver to EU on 19th.

That's is his one and only plan. There is,IMO, no plan B. If it fails I honestly think they have no idea what comes next. They have placed everything on this.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnson is not looking for a new deal from the EU (although may revert to NI only backstop).

His whole plan is to get a deal through HoC, that is what all the bluster and threats are about. Proroging is about reducing the time that MPs have to waste not arriving at any consensus. He will try to force through the plan with little or no debate.

Parliament back on 14th, queens speech, days debate. EU will only pass if the HoC already has so it has to be done by 18th so Johnson can deliver to EU on 19th.

I wonder will Johnson present the HoC with a fantisy version of the deal which has not been approved by the EU taskforce, hope it passes through Westminster and then try to force the EU to sign up to it to avoid no-deal. If the EU refuses then he can blame them for failing to ratify a deal that the HoC had approved.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Mind you, he's still miles ahead of Corbyn in the polls though, which tells you all you need to know about Corbyn.

It tells you all you need to know about the British electorate.

Kermit.de.frog

The big DUP row back has begun.

They are talking about special status for the north now.

Seems like damage limitation exercise for the inevitable.

gooch2k9

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The big DUP row back has begun.

They are talking about special status for the north now.

Seems like damage limitation exercise for the inevitable.

I hope the British media highlight what a thorn in the side the DUP have been throughout this whole process. Regardless of your viewpoint on Brexit, a reasonable compromise could have been reached two years ago without them.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

It tells you all you need to know about the British electorate.

And Corbyn. Leaders need to inspire. At that, Corbyn is useless.

Varta

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I wonder will Johnson present the HoC with a fantisy version of the deal which has not been approved by the EU taskforce, hope it passes through Westminster and then try to force the EU to sign up to it to avoid no-deal. If the EU refuses then he can blame them for failing to ratify a deal that the HoC had approved.

I'm fairly sure the EU would flag that to MPs.

farmerval

What I thought really showed the British media up was no-one appeared to speak to the protesters in Luxemburg.

They were all too happy with their story of Europe being rude or humiliating their prime minister.

Imagine if some actual journalists interviewed these people to find some/all were British people living in Eu that and were disgusted at how their government was dealing with their future in Europe. If that was the case it would have had a very different slant, possibly one that no-one in British media seems inteterested in.

Spanish Eyes

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not at all, I thought things were going quiet until the EU summit on 17th October, but instead we have had nonstop fireworks at the UKs Supreme Court!

The Government took a kicking at the outset, but then recovered somewhat.

I still think they will lose.

In fairness the SC hearing is something to keep an eye on, but they are just posturing. I hope they knock it out the pass. But sure who knows now.

Word on the street is, if SC says it was ok to prorogue, well.... it could be done at any time, ad infinitum going forward. That is mad IMV.

beggars_bush

gooch2k9 wrote: »

I hope the British media highlight what a thorn in the side the DUP have been throughout this whole process. Regardless of your viewpoint on Brexit, a reasonable compromise could have been reached two years ago without them.

DUP might actually cause No Deal Brexit

Would it bother Arlene and co?
Doubtful

maebee

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The big DUP row back has begun.

They are talking about special status for the north now.

On a visit to Dublin on Wednesday, Ms Foster signalled her openness to particular Brexit solutions that acknowledge the “unique history and geography” of Ireland - as long as they respect the constitutional position of the North within the UK.

Agreed. It does look very much like a row back from the DUP. This is very un-DUP like sentiments. Publicly stating the "unique history and geography” with the Republic is a change (for the better).

Looks like it has finally dawned on Arlene that NI is a wee bit different to the other parts of her United Kingdom.

Headshot

beggars_bush wrote: »

DUP might actually cause No Deal Brexit

Would it bother Arlene and co?
Doubtful

They would be over the moon as it effectively puts a border between the North and South. A huge back step to unification in their eyes.

lawred2

maebee wrote: »

On a visit to Dublin on Wednesday, Ms Foster signalled her openness to particular Brexit solutions that acknowledge the “unique history and geography” of Ireland - as long as they respect the constitutional position of the North within the UK.

Agreed. It does look very much like a row back from the DUP. This is very un-DUP like sentiments. Publicly stating the "unique history and geography” with the Republic is a change (for the better).

Looks like it has finally dawned on Arlene that NI is a wee bit different to the other parts of her United Kingdom.

forgive me here but what a bunch of time wasting tw@ts

it's very possible that this would have been done and dusted without Arlene's 'timely' intervention when TM was in Brussels..

and we've circled the drain for two years while those short thinking witless clowns wrapped themselves in flags for them to do the predictable to all about turn when they finally realized there was no more room in the little corner they'd boxed themselves into for themselves and their flegs.

Ardillaun

I can understand why some Protestant farmers voted for Brexit; it’s the sort of tribal groupthink we have often indulged in on our side of the fence. In any such matter, I would urge people to look to their own financial situation first because nobody else really gives a fig.

Sierra Oscar

The Taoiseach has held a meeting with Arlene Foster this evening, I doubt it would have been held if there wasn't some movement behind the scenes.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1174437235183280129

LeinsterDub

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1174427356854984704
BBC defending Kuenssberg. Nothing to see here seems to be their attitude

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

If it fails I honestly think they have no idea what comes next. They have placed everything on this.

If it fails, the opposition have already passed a law saying he must ask for an extension, so he will do that, not his fault, traitor remaoner backstab etc.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

it passes through Westminster and then try to force the EU to sign up to it to avoid no-deal. If the EU refuses then he can blame them for failing to ratify a deal that the HoC had approved.

He might imagine the EU is that stupid, but I don't think he can imagine Parliament is after the kicking they've administered recently.

Kermit.de.frog

I reckon Boris has had a word with Arlene that the bus is coming and they'll have to put on a brave face and sell it to the DUP grass roots.

I have zero doubt he will abandon them as the path of least resistance and they know that.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

It tells you all you need to know about the British electorate.

Ed Milliband reached the depths of Corbyn's horrific unpopularity after the national security scandal where he mis-ate a sandwich.

The billionaire controlled British newspapers might possibly be somehow responsible.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I reckon Boris has had a word with Arlene that the bus is coming and they'll have to put on a brave face and sell it to the DUP grass roots.

Your faith that Johnson has some sort of idea what's going on is touching.

Mr.Nice Guy

I'm not convinced the DUP are shifting their stance. I think it's more likely they sense there will be a backlash coming against them in an inevitable election for being unreasonable, and so they want to be able to say to the electorate, "but we were reasonable. Arlene Foster even met with the Taoiseach at an event in Dublin. But we made it clear the constitutional position of NI couldn't be affected", yadda, yadda, yadda.

I think it's all optics. Whatever solution ends up being created to solve this mess, I'd be astonished if it occurs with DUP cooperation. I suspect, much like with the Anglo-Irish Agreement and GFA, it will happen with them outside, howling about betrayal.

Zubeneschamali

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I doubt it would have been held if there wasn't some movement behind the scenes.

Why?

Of course Varadkar will meet them if they ask, but there is no reason to suppose there is any real movement behind the scenes, especially from, of all people, the DUP.

Kermit.de.frog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Your faith that Johnson has some sort of idea what's going on is touching.

The FT reported today he is well aware now after meeting Barnier.

Seth Brundle

Headshot wrote: »

They would be over the moon as it effectively puts a border between the North and South. A huge back step to unification in their eyes.

It would also mean an end to that dreadful GFA and it's ambitions to give equality to non-unionists.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The FT reported today he is well aware now after meeting Barnier.

Not sure if you are serious. If joking, ha ha, good one.