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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Shelga

Anyone know what time tomorrow we can expect the Supreme Court judgement?

SeaBreezes

Leroy42 wrote: »

Whether he had a point of not, the effect is that this trip is a complete and utter disaster for Johnson. Forget the presser, apart from the drama of it it is a non event.

What it telling is that there was no big handshake with Juncker, no claim of future prospects and positivity. And then Luxembourg PM seemed genuinely angry (I saw that not knowing the man so could be wrong).

The only reason for these visits is to try and move things along in ones favour. By any measure, today Johnson did the complete opposite.

His spin doctors will be out in force telling everyone that the mighty Luxembourg tricked him, it was a set up. Johnson had no choice. And this twin idea that the EU is so soft as to be about to collapse whilst at the same time being so strong that the UK is being bullied continues on.

If this was just today, you could possibly found a way to ignore it. But not after the press conf given by Leo last week. The EU are very clear on their position, they are not about to blink, not about to climbdown.

I wonder if this is all deliberate. He asked for the meeting, he set it up and would likely know in advance the setup for press conference. No new plans, just time wasting and frustrating the EU team, Suspicious timing after a weekend editorial that says 'the angrier I get the stronger I get' and now, magically there is something the UK media can all get angry about...

Mr.Nice Guy

A lot of comments are viewing the events of today through an Irish prism.

Thing is if the Johnson/Cummings tactic is to position the EU as the fall guys for No Deal, and merely to engage in sham talks, then today's events do him no harm. In fact it's quite possible Johnson's approval rating will even go up due to Bettel's comments being perceived as a slight by the British electorate, which will make the trip quite useful for him.

There's an echo here of Tusk's cherry-picking joke, which many outside the UK saw as a harmless quip but was taken as an insult by many within the UK. Here's an assessment from Nick Boles, who left the Tories over their handling of Brexit:

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1173612421082169344

I'd say he's correct on the first two points but not the last. It has to be remembered Brexit is a British (really English) nationalist movement. Having outsiders slag off their PM, however valid the reasons may be, will only serve to help the nationalist movement, since nationalism thrives on external antagonism.

I'd maintain Bettel got it tactically wrong today. The approach from Juncker, and Varadkar a week ago, was a wiser path to tread. Don't give these guys the narrative to sell back home that they want. Bettel, to use a Blair phrase, walked himself into an elephant trap.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

The real question is what happened in the near 2 hour (as I heard somewhere) meeting with Bettel? What went so badly that Bettel felt the need to talk like he did. Nobody is suggesting that it was all a set-up, so are we supposed to believe that Bettel was so annoyed with Johnson's decision not to attend the press conf that he said what he said?

No chance. As I said earlier, on its won one could argue that Bettel simply misspoke, got carried away without Johnson beside him to hold him back, but that falls apart when you consider the speech Leo gave. Different in tone, but the message is the same in both.

I saw someone speculating that the actual meeting must have gone terribly for Bettel to tear into Johnson like that. He probably gave Bettel a load of meaningless waffle and the latter was getting more and more annoyed listening to it.

Leroy42

The real question is what happened in the near 2 hour (as I heard somewhere) meeting with Bettel? What went so badly that Bettel felt the need to talk like he did. Nobody is suggesting that it was all a set-up, so are we supposed to believe that Bettel was so annoyed with Johnson's decision not to attend the press conf that he said what he said?

No chance. As I said earlier, on its won one could argue that Bettel simply misspoke, got carried away without Johnson beside him to hold him back, but that falls apart when you consider the speech Leo gave. Different in tone, but the message is the same in both.

Professor Moriarty

The Telegraph not too impressed by their correspondent tonight. Top three headlines:

How Boris Johnson took his begging bowl to the EU - and Luxembourg laughed in his face

Brexit latest news: Boris Johnson walks into ambush as Luxembourg's PM holds press conference next to empty podium

Boris Johnson was humiliated in Luxembourg. Was that what the EU wanted all along?

Gunmonkey

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Imagine you had agreed a deal with someone to buy a car. The next day they came back and said, actually when I got home the wife said she doesnt agree so the deals off.

Its not even that simple. Its more like:

EU: Ok, so how about €20000 for the car?
UK: will check with the missus *on phone* Ok she said that deal is not good enough!
EU:.....
UK:.....
EU: ...umm....are you going to make a counter offer or tell me what you do want?
UK: ehhhhh I'll give ya €50 and a bag of cans...oh and I got an All Cash with €5 on it here!
EU: I'm not giving you a car for that, everyone will want that deal, it will bankrupt me!
UK: ok ok yeesh....I have lots of other offers, great offers....technology, thats one!
EU: erm...so you will wire me the money or..?
UK: no, I will pay with "technology"....and if we cant reach an agreement I will just take the keys and drive off in the car!
EU: ehh...no, I would just call the police on you, you would be arrested and you and your families lives ruined when you go to jail! Thats a stupid idea.
UK: nuh uhh, I will get away with it and have a free car and you wont, you idiot hurhurhur!

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Of course he should have had the press conference. I mean he'd have mostly likely trotted out the same rubbish about wanting a deal he's said since he took office and his supporters at home would clap and say "well done prime minister" or something to that effect.

That was his real problem...he have looked a complete fool saying that while Bettel was roasting him at the other podium...might even have argued with him he seemed that genuinely angry.
Boris wimped out, no doubt about it.

swampgas

Leroy42 wrote: »

What it telling is that there was no big handshake with Juncker, no claim of future prospects and positivity. And then Luxembourg PM seemed genuinely angry (I saw that not knowing the man so could be wrong).

If Johnson had any goodwill left, maybe some way to delay the conference or move the crowd further away would have been found. But Johnson is toxic in the EU, they know him far too well. He has earned his unpopularity in diplomatic circles, there will be little willingness to make life easy for him now or in the future. Serves him bloody well right, to be frank.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Ah come on, it would have been a circus had he gone out. The crowd were cheering the Luxembourg PM for sticking it to him. Had he been out he would have been booked and it would have been uncomfortable for all. Maybe he deserves it, but I can see why he gave it a wide berth.

As I say I feel a bit dirty defending him, but on this occasion I'm not sure he was in the wrong.

He should have tried once he knew Bettel was going ahead, it was incredibly disrespectful. If the crowd drowned him out he could have just left.

Of course he should have had the press conference. I mean he'd have mostly likely trotted out the same rubbish about wanting a deal he's said since he took office and his supporters at home would clap and say "well done prime minister" or something to that effect.

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Ah come on, it would have been a circus had he gone out. The crowd were cheering the Luxembourg PM for sticking it to him. Had he been out he would have been booked and it would have been uncomfortable for all. Maybe he deserves it, but I can see why he gave it a wide berth.

As I say I feel a bit dirty defending him, but on this occasion I'm not sure he was in the wrong.

Isn't it very telling that when he goes to an EU state, there isn't a single British person to support him? Pro-Johnson people would have been free to stand there and cheer him on.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Ah come on, it would have been a circus had he gone out. The crowd were cheering the Luxembourg PM for sticking it to him. Had he been out he would have been booked and it would have been uncomfortable for all. Maybe he deserves it, but I can see why he gave it a wide berth.

As I say I feel a bit dirty defending him, but on this occasion I'm not sure he was in the wrong.

He should have tried once he knew Bettel was going ahead, it was incredibly disrespectful. If the crowd drowned him out he could have just left.

Itssoeasy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Seriously, if by any miracle UK does not leave the eu, would anyone want them sniping and giving out (Farage and others) ad infinitum? They will be a thorn in the side forever more given their superior stance and hubris lol.

I think the issue is over now. They should just go and leave us all alone. But I do realise their decision will impact us and many others, another sign of their cavalier attitude towards their neighbours. But so be it.

Clean break needed now.

There's that stupid phrase again. Why in the hell are people under this illusion that once brexit is "sorted"( whatever sorted will mean by the end of this mess) that it'll be all grand again ? Regardless of what brexit happens, there won't be anything like a clean break. I don't know about others but I'm sick to the back teeth of brexit. It's unbelievable to see a nation like the U.K.who have done many good things in the world over the centuries and been responsible for so many advances in many areas of people's lives, to display so complete and utter stupidity over this one issue.

The U.K. Press and the usual quarters can spin this any way they like. Boris Johnson couldn't handle a few protestors and also because he'd have another moment like in Dublin where he'd say one thing and the leader opposite with say the exact opposite he'd look stupid.

bilston

Strazdas wrote: »

But there was no onus on Bettel to cancel the press conference either. There were 140 journalists present, mostly international.

Yeah, that's correct, although is it standard procedure for protestors to be present at a press conference following a meeting between two leaders?

Leroy42

bilston wrote: »

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

Whether he had a point of not, the effect is that this trip is a complete and utter disaster for Johnson. Forget the presser, apart from the drama of it it is a non event.

What it telling is that there was no big handshake with Juncker, no claim of future prospects and positivity. And then Luxembourg PM seemed genuinely angry (I saw that not knowing the man so could be wrong).

The only reason for these visits is to try and move things along in ones favour. By any measure, today Johnson did the complete opposite.

His spin doctors will be out in force telling everyone that the mighty Luxembourg tricked him, it was a set up. Johnson had no choice. And this twin idea that the EU is so soft as to be about to collapse whilst at the same time being so strong that the UK is being bullied continues on.

If this was just today, you could possibly found a way to ignore it. But not after the press conf given by Leo last week. The EU are very clear on their position, they are not about to blink, not about to climbdown.

bilston

lawred2 wrote: »

something about making your bed and lying in it comes to mind

Again, I wouldn't disagree with that either

bilston

lawred2 wrote: »

Why not? Does he not believe in nor have confidence in his own words? It's his Brexit.

Well I can't argue with this because I don't think he is a devoted Brexiteer. It's just convenient for him.

But again I'm just saying that I understand why he didn't go out and speak in front of a crowd that were clearly opposed to him.

lawred2

bilston wrote: »

Ah come on, it would have been a circus had he gone out. The crowd were cheering the Luxembourg PM for sticking it to him. Had he been out he would have been booked and it would have been uncomfortable for all. Maybe he deserves it, but I can see why he gave it a wide berth.

As I say I feel a bit dirty defending him, but on this occasion I'm not sure he was in the wrong.

something about making your bed and lying in it comes to mind

bilston

lawred2 wrote: »

Why not? Does he not believe in nor have confidence in his own words? It's his Brexit.

Where were all the ooomph and vigour and hulk like powers that we've all been told is needed to deliver Brexit?

Or is it that that's just all bluster to cover for ignorance and being deeply ill informed?

Ah come on, it would have been a circus had he gone out. The crowd were cheering the Luxembourg PM for sticking it to him. Had he been out he would have been booked and it would have been uncomfortable for all. Maybe he deserves it, but I can see why he gave it a wide berth.

As I say I feel a bit dirty defending him, but on this occasion I'm not sure he was in the wrong.

An Ciarraioch

bilston wrote: »

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

Theresa May would have, and Thatcher would probably have relished it.

lawred2

bilston wrote: »

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

Why not? Does he not believe in nor have confidence in his own words? It's his Brexit.

Where were all the ooomph and vigour and hulk like powers that we've all been told is needed to deliver Brexit?

Or is it that that's just all bluster to cover for ignorance and being deeply ill informed?

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

But there was no onus on Bettel to cancel the press conference either. There were 140 journalists present, mostly international.

Seth Brundle

bilston wrote: »

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

Like I said earlier, if he can't publicly defend the effect his policies will have, not only on his country but also in Europe, then he should not be in the job.

Joe_ Public

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1173578797171560448

Not sure, but i imagine that comes from the cameron book.

bilston

quokula wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1173607985911873542

The BBC really is nothing more than a Tory propoganda distributor these days.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but maybe he had a point. It would have been chaotic if he had taken part with protestors there cheering the Luxembourg PM and probably booing him. No politician in their right mind would have taken part.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Cameron's book is more about excusing himself from the whole Brexit mess when the sh!t really hits the fan in the UK. Getting his excuses in early.

A Shropshire Lad

Imagine you had agreed a deal with someone to buy a car. The next day they came back and said, actually when I got home the wife said she doesnt agree so the deals off.

Strazdas

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

What did Johnson go there for today exactly ? Did he have anything to propose ?

Seems to have just been a PR job / propaganda exercise by Johnson. He set up the meeting himself and wasn't invited there.

Spanish Eyes

Oh and while I am on a roll, why are the commentators talking about a DEAL. They have one, it was rejected by Parliament, I don't get it.

So because the original Deal that was negotiated amongst all countries in EU and approved by them doesn't actually suit UK, they are talking about ANOTHER DEAL. NO, it is another negotiation for another deal. Start all over again. But nothing will satisfy them IMO now. So out they go and bloody good riddance.

Idiotic hubristic attitude is so evident.

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Will you purchase his book, because this is what it is all about. Cameron has been very silent up to now, but book launch, and all of a sudden he is verbose.

As if he needs the money either, but I think I read somewhere that the proceeds are to go to charity or something. I dunno if that's true though.

Definitely wont purchase it, but will have a look when it becomes available in local library down the line. Obviously, he's on a book tour, but i would guess deep down a part of him will be thinking his political redemption has to start somewhere. Blair seems to have got there after how many years??

Edit: yes, definitely true about the charity.