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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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VinLieger

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Fixed what?

Considering the Irish government have been betrayed by Brexit Britain, their responses are timid, I hope if Britain try to force us to put up a border the Irish government's actions (or the EU's) are not

The UK wont be forcing us to do anything, its just a simple fact that if they go no deal there has to be a border for us to retain our status in the single market

ElectronVolt

VinLieger wrote: »

The UK wont be forcing us to do anything, its just a simple fact that if they go no deal there has to be a border for us to retain our status in the single market

There also has to be one on their side to maintain compliance with obligations under WTO rules - hence they need a deal. Otherwise, the trade disputes and lawsuits will begin.

L1011

Gyimah joins the Lib Dems. Doesn't change the "majority" figure but does leave one less potential returnee in the short term at least.

Capt'n Midnight

ElectronVolt wrote: »

There also has to be one on their side to maintain compliance with obligations under WTO rules - hence they need a deal. Otherwise, the trade disputes and lawsuits will begin.

Apparently not even the BBC understand this

https://asset-1.soup.io/asset/14446/1972_14f9.jpeg

The UK government has already said most tariffs will be abolished for EU goods coming to the UK, if there is no deal. But the EU doesn't have to do the same.

Actually that last sentence should state that under WTO Most Favoured Nation rules the EU cannot offer the UK any special treatment until a trade deal is done or very nearly done.

And right now it's not even clear that the UK is actively negotiating.

The only exception is if the EU abolishes tariffs for all countries which isn't going to happen for political and economic reasons,

Infini

Saw this on the journal.ie basically a write up of Tony Connollys analysis to how Boris has a lot to answer for on Brexit.

https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-connelly-boris-johnson-eu-4807448-Sep2019/

Sum's up as well how Boris started this all off with his shítposting in the Daily Telegraph before other's started mimicking his BS (explains the origin of all this).

Additionally a fun little tidbit but Liverpool and Merseyside voted remain with a factor in all of this being that the sun was banned in those regions after their bullshít over the Hillsborough disaster.

Another good point made as well that the EU has been getting out there informing people about how it works in an attempt to counter voter apathy, the kind of shítpost articles that have spewed from the Daily Fail etc and to inform people what they get from the EU which has in part helped to cause populist parties to row back their own exit plans expecially with how the Brits are making an utter clusterfúck of their own situation.

GM228

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So lying to the monarch is treason. And the current Home Secretary, Pritti Patel, used to be in favour of capital punishment (as was Gove). I must check out Paddy Power's odds on Johnson being beheaded.

Lying to the Monarch is not treason, in fact lieing to the Queen is not an offence under any heading.

briany

This current Conservative government is a total lame duck, and it continues to lose MPs with Sam Gmiyah joining the Lib Dems.

So, if we come into October and the Conservatives are still poised to take the UK off the cliff, what's to stop the opposition once again moving to take control of parliamentary business and tabling an alternative deal? I mean, I know the opposition is not exactly ideologically unified, but if Johnson's government only weakly feigns the intention of reaching a breakthrough with the EU, the opposition are still agreed on one thing, and that is that they don't want no-deal. So, in this scenario, the only option left would be to have another marathon session of legislation where the opposition can force through a deal at the last minute, right under Johnson's nose.

Water John

Parliament will instruct someone else to deliver an ext request to the EU, if as he says, Johnson refuses to do it.

Enzokk

All the talk of a new deal seems quick for me. Ian Dunt had this to say earlier today about the backstop and a new deal and how we have been here before,

Week in Review: A deal is as unlikely as ever

The chatter begins. It always starts quietly at first, then slowly builds up. Maybe there is hope, after all. Maybe a deal with Europe can be done. Maybe Boris Johnson is the man to do it.

Then come the news reports. The prime minister is startled by the implications of no-deal. The DUP are softening on regulatory separation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The Europeans are willing to change or erase the backstop.

It's becoming almost a tradition. Expectation builds, slowly and from multiple angles, reaches a crescendo and then finally breaks on the cold, horrible shores of reality.
Reports now suggest the Europeans would accept changes to the backstop. But these would amount to the backstop in all but name: regulatory and customs alignment as an insurance policy against the failure of 'alternative arrangements'.

It goes on to say that the problem he has is the same as May. He will need Labour votes to get a deal through and deal he brings back, even with a NI only backstop, will not have the assurance the Labour leavers need on employment rights and a customs union. So how could they back a worse deal than they rejected under May?

As for Cameron, he is the reason the UK is a mess. There was no reason to call a referendum as the public weren't clamoring for one. It was an internal Tory problem that he wanted to be rid of. There is zero reason to feel any sympathy for him. He misjudged the problem of the EU for the country and it is costing the UK.

I always go between who has been the worse leader, May or Cameron, but it always comes back to the fact that May wouldn't have been put in the impossible position had it not been for Cameron.

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1172596340905467907?s=20

briany

Water John wrote: »

Parliament will instruct someone else to deliver an ext request to the EU, if as he says, Johnson refuses to do it.

The EU can still turn down an extension request. I don't know how likely this would be in the event, but I have the feeling that if they do grant it, the whole thing will go off the boil for a couple of months, and the net result is that we'll return to a crisis situation after Christmas.

So the EU may think a bit more tactically. The only way the UK may move on this is if they're presented with some sort of real jeopardy to break the deadlock. Examples being forced to take a longer extension or really going off the cliff. Now, if they want think even more tactically again, they may do well to present that kind of ultimatum in October because if they don't, they could be dealing with a clear Conservative majority in January that isn't interested in a deal as it's currently being offered.

retalivity

Guardian/Observer poll has tories and brexit party at 50% combined vote if there was a general election, up 2% & taking a point each off the lib dems and the greens. I know the majority for leave voted at the time, and i thought that if a vote was held again, sense may see it through, but it appears that the country is not for turning.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/14/sam-gyimah-former-tory-minister-slams-populist-johnson-as-he-joins-lib-dems

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

This current Conservative government is a total lame duck, and it continues to lose MPs with Sam Gmiyah joining the Lib Dems.

So, if we come into October and the Conservatives are still poised to take the UK off the cliff, what's to stop the opposition once again moving to take control of parliamentary business and tabling an alternative deal? I mean, I know the opposition is not exactly ideologically unified, but if Johnson's government only weakly feigns the intention of reaching a breakthrough with the EU, the opposition are still agreed on one thing, and that is that they don't want no-deal. So, in this scenario, the only option left would be to have another marathon session of legislation where the opposition can force through a deal at the last minute, right under Johnson's nose.

Lib Dems are the party of remain, they will never agree to table a deal that would see the UK leave the EU. Labours policy is to make the Conservatives own Brexit so they can blame them for all the problems infront of remainers and for not getting Brexit right infront of Brexiters.

Capt'n Midnight

If neither Tory + DUP or Labour get a majority at the next election then cancelling Article 50 will be on the Lib Dems wish list for a coalition

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Lib Dems are the party of remain, they will never agree to table a deal that would see the UK leave the EU. Labours policy is to make the Conservatives own Brexit so they can blame them for all the problems infront of remainers and for not getting Brexit right infront of Brexiters.

It's a losing strategy for Labour, in that case. They're going to take damage as well, the longer this thing goes on, losing voters to the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party.

The Lib Dems might be the party of Remain, but some party of Remain they'll be if presented with the stark choice of a crash-out and they do nothing to mitigate the potential damage of that.

johnnyskeleton

briany wrote: »

The Lib Dems might be the party of Remain, but some party of Remain they'll be if presented with the stark choice of a crash-out and they do nothing to mitigate the potential damage of that.

I think it is a fair position for them to say theyre against Brexit therefore vote against ang kind of Brexit. Theyve been consistent on this and they are a small party so their MP votes dont make too mu h of a difference.

However, the whole Uk political esrablishment can be blamed for playing party politics at a time when some kind of national consensus should be sought. If only there was some way that they could politicially get together and try to agree a position that works for most of them

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

I always go between who has been the worse leader, May or Cameron, but it always comes back to the fact that May wouldn't have been put in the impossible position had it not been for Cameron.

It wasn't that impossible when she got into power. At that point Brexit was a blank slate and a whole pile of useful promises "no one ever said we'd leave the single market" /" only a mad man would suggest we'd leave the single market", "once we have a deal of course we will put it back to the people to decide" etc.

She could have unified the people "48-52 means that the people have voted to leave but want a really close relationship but just outside, we'll establish a cross parliament body to work out...." etc.

However she did the exact opposite.
And she did so because of her own racist prejudices.

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

It wasn't that impossible when she got into power. At that point Brexit was a blank slate and a whole pile of useful promises "no one ever said we'd leave the single market" /" only a mad man would suggest we'd leave the single market", "once we have a deal of course we will put it back to the people to decide" etc.

She could have unified the people "48-52 means that the people have voted to leave but want a really close relationship but just outside, we'll establish a cross parliament body to work out...." etc.

However she did the exact opposite.
And she did so because of her own racist prejudices.

True, and that is why she will be one of the worst with Cameron, but Cameron opened decades of trouble for the country by proposing a referendum nobody outside of his own party was clamouring for.

Just think it through, if as you say and a lot of voters would have accepted they took a Norway deal because it was such a close result, do you think any leader that proposed it would have shut the argument down if they were still party to ECJ rulings and EU regulations and rules they have no say over? Would Farage be kept quiet to clamour for a total break?

The arguments then would have been about having to follow regulations without a say and how terrible that is and how they need a further break. The only way the argument quietens down is if remain won, and even then Farage confirmed he would not be quiet.

So as bad and idiotic May has been, the fact that she only became leader because of Johnson counts against him as well and her mistakes are in effect his mistakes then. Without his referendum we aren't discussing Brexit, and she probably would have resigned in shame after Windrush was exposed and she was still Home Secretary.

prunudo

I'm still not sure they'll get a Northern Ireland backstop through parliament. The Tories may get it past the EU leaders but there's still so many differing views on whether Brexit should be hard, soft or even go ahead, plus the likes of erg who want no deal.
At the moment all the commentary is about stopping a no deal and to be fair the opposition have clubbed together to stop that, but scratch beneath the surface they'll be a lot of opposing opinions.
Sure even just yesterday, Nicky Morgan said she vote remain again if there was another red and she's in cabinet.

alentejo

Looking at the latest polls, the Tories seem have gained points. Not much hope. At this stage we need to let them crash out and start picking up the pieces afterwards. I just can't believe that a large proportion of Brits (English mainly) want out at all costs. Very sad times.

Jamiekelly

Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, was on Sophie Ridge just now and I have to say, the media in the UK are a complete failure. He was allowed to spout absolute rubbish and Ms. Ridge didn't challenge him on a single point. He started talking about how the UK is currently negotiating a deal with the EU which is catagorically false by the EU's own admission but was never questioned about it. He then goes on to say they are working to get the backstop removed and that they are talking with all the main political party leaders to get it done. Despite the SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and UUP not even getting a look in thanks to a collapsed assembly. Did she ask him about it? No, of course she didn't. Spinelessness means success at SKY NEWS it seems.

Seth Brundle

Boris looks to be staying on course...

Boris Johnson will tell outgoing European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday that he will defy a new act of parliament and refuse to discuss or accept any offer to extend the UK’s membership even if a Brexit deal cannot be agreed, Downing Street has said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/johnson-to-tell-juncker-he-won-t-discuss-brexit-extension-1.4018749

prunudo

Jamiekelly wrote: »

Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, was on Sophie Ridge just now and I have to say, the media in the UK are a complete failure. He was allowed to spout absolute rubbish and Ms. Ridge didn't challenge him on a single point. He started talking about how the UK is currently negotiating a deal with the EU which is catagorically false by the EU's own admission but was never questioned about it. He then goes on to say they are working to get the backstop removed and that they are talking with all the main political party leaders to get it done. Despite the SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and UUP not even getting a look in thanks to a collapsed assembly. Did she ask him about it? No, of course she didn't. Spinelessness means success at SKY NEWS it seems.

I read somewhere, could have been on this thread, that under the Boris government, any cabinet minister must pre arrange the questions the media will ask them beforehand. Adam Boulton refused to do this, this may explain the easy ride they get on BBC at the moment.

firemansam4

retalivity wrote:

Guardian/Observer poll has tories and brexit party at 50% combined vote if there was a general election, up 2% & taking a point each off the lib dems and the greens. I know the majority for leave voted at the time, and i thought that if a vote was held again, sense may see it through, but it appears that the country is not for turning.

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.
The UK need to have there Brexit, if they do go no deal then the best we can hope for is when the implications of that decision start setting in then they soon come back looking for a deal.

Igotadose

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.
The UK need to have there Brexit, if they do go no deal then the best we can hope for is when the implications of that decision start setting in then they soon come back looking for a deal.

In my opinion, they don't need to have their Brexit. Some percentage of them *want* to leave the EU, whatever they think that means, by whatever means is in their heads. Want never equals need. Only a slight majority favored leaving in a non-binding referendum. 3 years later and they're no closer to leaving than they were the day before the referendum, albeit they will be forced to leave on Oct 31 according to the plans they have in place today, in catastrophic fashion per their government's published predictions.

Akrasia

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.
The UK need to have there Brexit, if they do go no deal then the best we can hope for is when the implications of that decision start setting in then they soon come back looking for a deal.

I think a 2nd referendum would result in a remain victory, but even if it didn't, it would certainly rule out a hard brexit.

It depends on the wording and the structure of the vote, there are essentially 3 options that can be put on the ballot.
1. Remain
2. Leave with whatever the best currently available deal happens to be
3. Leave with no deal.

Whether this is run as a 3 way vote with 3 options on the table, or it's run as two parts (Leave V Remain, and if leave wins, another vote, deal or no deal)
Or if No deal is left off the options list entirely, A 2nd referendum would comprehensively rule out 'No Deal' and provide a significant opportunity to cancel the whole brexit fiasco once and for all.

The leave vote is split, and if remain is taken off the table, the vast majority of remainers would vote for the softest brext on the table. No deal extremists cannot get enough votes to win a referendum

If there is to be a 2nd referendum, the UK should learn from the first, and have an independent referendum commission, and active policing of advertising and social media campaigns which are misleading and inaccurate

Akrasia

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Boris looks to be staying on course...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/johnson-to-tell-juncker-he-won-t-discuss-brexit-extension-1.4018749

He's trying to bluff the EU into capitulating but the EU has already seen that he's holding a busted flush, but he's determined to go all-in on a hand that has already lost. The EU only have to call his bluff and Johnson will be forced to either fold, or go through with his bluff, get arrested, and have the EU letter sent in anyway nobile officium by the Scottish court of Session.

beggars_bush

retalivity wrote: »

Guardian/Observer poll has tories and brexit party at 50% combined vote if there was a general election, up 2% & taking a point each off the lib dems and the greens. I know the majority for leave voted at the time, and i thought that if a vote was held again, sense may see it through, but it appears that the country is not for turning.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/14/sam-gyimah-former-tory-minister-slams-populist-johnson-as-he-joins-lib-dems

Stiff upper lip and all that

Enzokk

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.
The UK need to have there Brexit, if they do go no deal then the best we can hope for is when the implications of that decision start setting in then they soon come back looking for a deal.

As long as the question is clear and the vote is run in a responsible way then I would have no qualms if they voted to leave for an option. I also think that if people are given an option, whether to leave without a deal (maybe remain would win 65%-35% if those are the options) or the more likelier to win, a deal (maybe 55%-45% for remain) the result would be a remain victory.

The problem leave would have is Northern Ireland and no-one is going to campaign on effectively cutting off one part of it, and if you do then the deal is soft remain. If it is soft remain you lose all say over the rules so it is better to remain even if you don't like it. This was clear once negotiations started and the facts will not change in the meantime.

Joe_ Public

Personally, i dont understand why people put so much faith and significance in these polls. The same polling companies that had the tories struggling in 2015, labour likely forming a government, mucked up the 2016 referendum and had Labour trailing by 20+ points in 2017. If there's any lesson there, it's to either believe the opposite or at least something significantly different to what they seem to be telling you. We dont even know the basis around which the next election will be fought yet, and we've never been in more volatile political times. Only thing i'm confident about is tories wont get a majority, but just a hunch, nothing more.

Irish Praetorian

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.
The UK need to have there Brexit, if they do go no deal then the best we can hope for is when the implications of that decision start setting in then they soon come back looking for a deal.

I'm sorry but what is that based on exactly? I've been following the tracking polls for various post Brexit referenda and the point you make might have been true for the first year or so. However, since then the numbers of people who think A: the vote to leave the EU was the wrong decision and B: who would vote to remain in a hypothetical second referendum, have only been increasing.

Ideally, such a referendum might take the form of an alternative vote; Remain, May's Deal, No Deal - eliminate the option with the lowest support and transfer its votes to the other two. Frankly, I think at this point if the country voted No-Deal it would be a lot more palatable and most of the complaints from the earlier referendum would be null and void. It might still be a silly idea, but it would at least be an endorsed silly idea.