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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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An Ciarraioch

Very promising - tomorrow's Times says the DUP are prepared to accept some regulatory checks in the Irish Sea - perhaps we really are inching towards a deal?

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1172262586013880342

Headshot

I see Question Time on tonight coming from Norwich.

Guests are MPs Brandon Lewis, John Healey and Jeffery Donaldson, Professor of EU Law Catherine Barnard and broadcaster Afua Hirsch

johnnyskeleton

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit hard man Steve Barclay thinks the solution to the backstop lies in going to individual countries and attempting to undermine the joint EU position. No surprise they target the Polish govt as a soft spot incidentally.

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1172201675513323520

Worrying that he makes a big point of the Polish parliament being prorogued for the election. Its as if he is aware that there is a scandal but he doesnt understand that its the fact that Johnson prorogued parliament on a false pretence in an attempt to bypass parliamentary scruinty at a time when the whole UK politicial establishment should be working full out that is the problem, rather than prorogation of parliament itself.

Its a bit like being caught standing over a dead body holding a kitchen knife and in response saying "look, that guy over there also owns a kitchen knife, I dont see what the big deal is"

reslfj

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tell that to the British/Brexiteers!

Do they care much or alt all, it they are not living in NI?

Lars

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

That Twitter thread is an abomination.

It's not even amusing a anymore. That is not actual voters in the responses. Yes there will be some that read it and like it but they are actually extremely well built automated bots. Triggers by key words or by posts by particular politicians. Their goal is clear. To make the politician think they are on the right path and there is a large swade of people out there backing them or conversely not backing them on that topic. And the other is to amplify and make other marginal undecided voters that's a huge swathe of people are angry on the internet.

Twitter has a bloody lot to answer for. There should be an automation farm hunting out this stuff and clearing accounts.

Frankly I think people should have to enter a mobile phone and authorise from the device to obtain an account.

It's now a battlefield for military mind games.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

The only person that individual should be talking to Michel Barnier. Talking to the Poles about the WA and removing the backstop is rather outrageous (and a waste of time). They (UK) really are a pariah EU state.

Also, surely if there is an election coming up what's to say the people they are talking to now will be the same people that go to the EU Summit in October?

On the NI only backstop, somehow everyone is missing the fact that even if he gets it passed in the HoC, they will need time to legislate for Brexit and Theresa May wanted around 3-4 months for all of this to be sorted. I doubt he will be able to get the deal passed and then all of the subsequent legislation done before the 31st October if he has a new deal on the 18th October.

He will surely have to ask for an extension either way even if he is able to get a new deal and get it through parliament.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1172080932590968832

Bit of a somber thread to read. The Brits have yet to propose any real alternatives to the backstop...so the clock will keep on ticking.

McGiver

Strazdas wrote: »

lawred2 wrote: »

That Twitter thread is an abomination.

The only person that individual should be talking to Michel Barnier. Talking to the Poles about the WA and removing the backstop is rather outrageous (and a waste of time). They (UK) really are a pariah EU state.

Aligning themselves with the Polish clerofascist regime shows where they stand really. With this pace, they're gonna knock Orbán's doors next, and then Erdoğan's....

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

That Twitter thread is an abomination.

The only person that individual should be talking to Michel Barnier. Talking to the Poles about the WA and removing the backstop is rather outrageous (and a waste of time). They (UK) really are a pariah EU state.

Itssoeasy

lawred2 wrote: »

That Twitter thread is an abomination.

Yeah it's greatest hits of disillusion.

woohoo!!!

Varta wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is not a wish list at all.

To defeat the Tories, Labour have to get them to own Brexit and the shambles they have made of it.

To this end they set up a Royal Commission to shine flood lights on all the lies and illegal activity, and name names, and if possible prosecute. This takes time, but the drip drip of it will stick nasty stuff to the nasty party.

To prevent them getting credit for 'the end of austerity' the Gov of NU will implement all the new measures and claim credit for them.

To get over the 'Will of the People' argument, they Revoke Art 50 to stop the clock and stop the uncertainty. They then start the whole ref thing anew with a Citizen's Assembly to determine what 'Leavers' want, and form the new Ref question, and hold that ref with Remain vs the new proposal, having the certainty that it will be implemented rapidly, since the netgotiations are well understood this time. They will have a plan.

It is only then that newly invigorated, united Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems, go to the country. The Tories will by then have morphed into One Nation Tories vs Brexit Tories.

A quick election now will continue the current chaos with no end in sight

Definitely a wish list. The UK is in disarray. The word unity has been erased from the language.

Agree. There's factions within in both sides who hate their own side more than they hate the Brexiteers/Remainers. Witness Tory contempt for BP, Labour's divisions, Lib Dems hate for Labour, SNP with their own agenda and so on. Regardless of any GE result, there's very little to suggest enough votes for any deal that the EU would consider. And they're running scared of actually setting up a new government to replace Johnson's and they're even more scared to press the revoke article 50 button. They're an utterly riven mess that sooner or later will push away the Troublesome lot in NI and the increasingly uppitity Scots.

It's wishful thinking that they're all of a sudden going to come to their senses before Brexit day when they cannot agree on anything. Maybe in 20 years, maybe never.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit hard man Steve Barclay thinks the solution to the backstop lies in going to individual countries and attempting to undermine the joint EU position. No surprise they target the Polish govt as a soft spot incidentally.

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1172201675513323520

That Twitter thread is an abomination.

Itssoeasy

Steve Bradley is forgetting that the Poles aren't leaving the EU this year and it's not uncommon to shut parliament down before an election. It's called an election campaign. Why would U.K remain MP's complain about a parliament that is dissolved because an election has been called ? Utter rubbish that people will believe.

Edit: Just had a a quick glance at the way the polish lower house works and how elections work. Since 1989 elections are held every four years be PR. Guess when the last election was held ? You'll never guess it lads.

Varta

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is not a wish list at all.

To defeat the Tories, Labour have to get them to own Brexit and the shambles they have made of it.

To this end they set up a Royal Commission to shine flood lights on all the lies and illegal activity, and name names, and if possible prosecute. This takes time, but the drip drip of it will stick nasty stuff to the nasty party.

To prevent them getting credit for 'the end of austerity' the Gov of NU will implement all the new measures and claim credit for them.

To get over the 'Will of the People' argument, they Revoke Art 50 to stop the clock and stop the uncertainty. They then start the whole ref thing anew with a Citizen's Assembly to determine what 'Leavers' want, and form the new Ref question, and hold that ref with Remain vs the new proposal, having the certainty that it will be implemented rapidly, since the netgotiations are well understood this time. They will have a plan.

It is only then that newly invigorated, united Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems, go to the country. The Tories will by then have morphed into One Nation Tories vs Brexit Tories.

A quick election now will continue the current chaos with no end in sight

Definitely a wish list. The UK is in disarray. The word unity has been erased from the language.

Kermit.de.frog

Brexit hard man Steve Barclay thinks the solution to the backstop lies in going to individual countries and attempting to undermine the joint EU position. No surprise they target the Polish govt as a soft spot incidentally.

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1172201675513323520

Strazdas

Varta wrote: »

To be honest, that sounds like a wish list. The longer this goes on the more likely the majority to leave will be even higher. There are people who voted remain who now want to leave. If you are British and you voted to remain, then you have my sympathy. But at this stage the UK is like a gangrenous limb attached to the EU. It has to go. The UK will not be at peace with itself for a very long time and it needs to be on its own to sort itself out.

One thing I suspect might happen is that right wing nationalist England might vote to Leave but Scotland, Wales and NI would vote to Remain (which would be a pretty disastrous outcome in the current climate).

Sam Russell

Varta wrote: »

To be honest, that sounds like a wish list. The longer this goes on the more likely the majority to leave will be even higher. There are people who voted remain who now want to leave. If you are British and you voted to remain, then you have my sympathy. But at this stage the UK is like a gangrenous limb attached to the EU. It has to go. The UK will not be at peace with itself for a very long time and it needs to be on its own to sort itself out.

It is not a wish list at all.

To defeat the Tories, Labour have to get them to own Brexit and the shambles they have made of it.

To this end they set up a Royal Commission to shine flood lights on all the lies and illegal activity, and name names, and if possible prosecute. This takes time, but the drip drip of it will stick nasty stuff to the nasty party.

To prevent them getting credit for 'the end of austerity' the Gov of NU will implement all the new measures and claim credit for them.

To get over the 'Will of the People' argument, they Revoke Art 50 to stop the clock and stop the uncertainty. They then start the whole ref thing anew with a Citizen's Assembly to determine what 'Leavers' want, and form the new Ref question, and hold that ref with Remain vs the new proposal, having the certainty that it will be implemented rapidly, since the netgotiations are well understood this time. They will have a plan.

It is only then that newly invigorated, united Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems, go to the country. The Tories will by then have morphed into One Nation Tories vs Brexit Tories.

A quick election now will continue the current chaos with no end in sight

Varta

Sam Russell wrote: »

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

1. They have control over HoC while they can hold the current coalition together, so they must not waste it.

2. If the form a Gov of Nat Unity, they put in someone like Ken Clarke, put there own speaker in, and say they will have a GE in six or so months.

3. They announce a Royal Commission into the whole sorry mess that was the Leave campaign, and all its illegal activity and all those involved in funding, and the rest. This to report PDQ.

4. They revoke Art 50, and announce a new referendum to be held before the next GE, with a new WA vs Remain, with the new WA to be the result of a wide study, like our Citizen's Assembly.

5. Put into action all the Tory spending already announced.

The result of these is to put distance between the current Tory shambles, while not disrespecting the original referendum, while not implementing it.

Also, there is a danger that a GE could result in a majority for a Brexit outcome based on a very low vote of less than 40%. A referendum has to get at least 50%.

In six months, the heat will have gone out of Brexit when a constant level of Gov information on the EU and its advantages are put to the people.

To be honest, that sounds like a wish list. The longer this goes on the more likely the majority to leave will be even higher. There are people who voted remain who now want to leave. If you are British and you voted to remain, then you have my sympathy. But at this stage the UK is like a gangrenous limb attached to the EU. It has to go. The UK will not be at peace with itself for a very long time and it needs to be on its own to sort itself out.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

Because being in power is the whole point of a political parties existence.

And it not just the control of the HoC, as can be even more clearly seen in the US, being on power allows a party to lay significant control that can last far beyond their term.

Setting the speaker, hiring civil servants, setting up investigations, dolling out money to their favorite areas, amending the voting rules etc etc.

woohoo!!!

Sam Russell wrote: »

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

1. They have control over HoC while they can hold the current coalition together, so they must not waste it.

2. If the form a Gov of Nat Unity, they put in someone like Ken Clarke, put there own speaker in, and say they will have a GE in six or so months.

3. They announce a Royal Commission into the whole sorry mess that was the Leave campaign, and all its illegal activity and all those involved in funding, and the rest. This to report PDQ.

4. They revoke Art 50, and announce a new referendum to be held before the next GE, with a new WA vs Remain, with the new WA to be the result of a wide study, like our Citizen's Assembly.

5. Put into action all the Tory spending already announced.

The result of these is to put distance between the current Tory shambles, while not disrespecting the original referendum, while not implementing it.

Also, there is a danger that a GE could result in a majority for a Brexit outcome based on a very low vote of less than 40%. A referendum has to get at least 50%.

In six months, the heat will have gone out of Brexit when a constant level of Gov information on the EU and its advantages are put to the people.

This is eminently sensible advice of course, which is to say that the UK will do the exact opposite, tie themselves in more knots with cunning plan and counter plan, all ignoring the salient point, this is only about the WA and PD, nothing more. They're never going to learn and the EU knows it.

Sam Russell

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

1. They have control over HoC while they can hold the current coalition together, so they must not waste it.

2. If the form a Gov of Nat Unity, they put in someone like Ken Clarke, put there own speaker in, and say they will have a GE in six or so months.

3. They announce a Royal Commission into the whole sorry mess that was the Leave campaign, and all its illegal activity and all those involved in funding, and the rest. This to report PDQ.

4. They revoke Art 50, and announce a new referendum to be held before the next GE, with a new WA vs Remain, with the new WA to be the result of a wide study, like our Citizen's Assembly.

5. Put into action all the Tory spending already announced.

The result of these is to put distance between the current Tory shambles, while not disrespecting the original referendum, while not implementing it.

Also, there is a danger that a GE could result in a majority for a Brexit outcome based on a very low vote of less than 40%. A referendum has to get at least 50%.

In six months, the heat will have gone out of Brexit when a constant level of Gov information on the EU and its advantages are put to the people.

Leroy42

Johnson has no ability to get a deal passed in the HoC, he is now under serious accusation that he lied to the Queen for goodness sake! He would first have to bring back those he recently kicked out of the party, get the ERG on board and get the DUP to agree to the very thing they said they never would. He then needs to get some Labour MP's on board, when they can see that there is no way out for Johnson other than a GE, so why vote for any deal?

The EU were badly burned by TM on the original WA, when it was not only defeated by historically so. They invested massive time and effort into that and were let down by a PM not delivering their side of the bargain. Why would they risk being burnt again when all the signs are that Johnson has lost control of his own party never mind the HoC.

Don't worry about the tweets about EU leader 'liking' Johnson, or that they are open to possible alternatives. The key speech this week was delivered by Leo in Dublin. It was a deliberate, and pretty vicious (in diplomatic terms) slap down by the EU (and it would have been cleared by the EU prior IMO).

That is where the EU really stands. All the rest is just diplomats being diplomats.

Imreoir2

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

It depends on what he wants, if he really wants to force no-deal and then go for a quick election, it does him no good to shaft the DUP yet. If he wants to deliver some kind of Brexit deal before the election then he will shaft them soon.

Itssoeasy

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

No idea but he seems to be doing just that.

beggars_bush

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

Might need them after an election

MadYaker

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

Varta

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

It really is very hard to see the EU deal with anyone other than the PM. The last thing they would do is come to an agreement with a document signed by judges. Just imagine the fallout from that. No, they have kept a respectable distance from the carry on in the UK and they will continue to do so.

A Dub in Glasgo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.

Exactly. It's everyone's get out jail free card.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.