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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
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Seth Brundle

John Lewis issues a stark warning...

UK retailer John Lewis has issued a stark warning on the possible impact of a no-deal Brexit as the retail group reported a £25.9 million (€33 million) pretax loss before exceptionals for the first half of its financial year.

“Should the UK leave the EU without a deal, we expect the effect to be significant and it will not be possible to mitigate that impact,” the partnership’s chairman, Charlie Mayfield, said in a statement.

“We have ensured our financial resilience and taken steps to increase our foreign currency hedging, to build stock where that is sensible, and to improve customs readiness. However, Brexit continues to weigh on consumer sentiment at a crucial time for the sector as we enter the peak trading period.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/john-lewis-issues-stark-no-deal-brexit-warning-1.4015957

Water John

Vinlegar, that's the best short synopsis of UK's problem. She nailed it in less than two minutes. An expert with clarity. The two things every Brexiteer hates.

gooch2k9

Out of interest, when is Mrs Merkel's "30 day deadline" up? Considering the UK have proposed no realistic alternatives to date.

VinLieger

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Out of interest, when is Mrs Merkel's "30 day deadline" up? Considering the UK have proposed no realistic alternatives to date.

It wasn't a real deadline, the UK rags seized upon a purposeful mistranslation of her basically saying "there's time enough to get things sorted in 30 days if we really want to" and turned it into "you have 30 days"

gooch2k9

VinLieger wrote: »

It wasn't a real deadline, the UK rags seized upon a purposeful mistranslation of her basically saying "there's time enough to get things sorted in 30 days if we really want to" and turned it into "you have 30 days"

Oh I'm aware of that, but they seized on it and have gone very quiet on it since.

Johnson must have run out of energy and determination.

Seth Brundle

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Out of interest, when is Mrs Merkel's "30 day deadline" up? Considering the UK have proposed no realistic alternatives to date.

I think Sept 20th (as they met on Aug 21st) but as mentioned, it isn't a deadline, just something the UK press incorrectly interpreted as one.

Imreoir2

VinLieger wrote: »

It wasn't a real deadline, the UK rags seized upon a purposeful mistranslation of her basically saying "there's time enough to get things sorted in 30 days if we really want to" and turned it into "you have 30 days"

Thats not even what she was saying, it was more "we have not been able to find an alternative to the backstop in 3 years, perhaps you can find the answer in 30 days, good luck with that, you know where to find us when you come up with something".

trellheim

The point about the SIEM is well made - there is no agreement on trading electricity in the intra-island market in a no-deal

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

The point about the SIEM is well made - there is no agreement on trading electricity in the intra-island market in a no-deal

Something many people pointed out several threads back but it was added to the project fear list i believe

Zubeneschamali

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I think Sept 20th (as they met on Aug 21st) but as mentioned, it isn't a deadline, just something the UK press incorrectly interpreted as one.

Well, yes, but since the British Press seized on it as a 30 day reprieve for Boris, they will presumably hammer him in front page capitals when he reaches the 30 day "deadline" and still has nothing?

Just kidding, of course on the relevant day they will say nothing at all, and if anyone kicks up a fuss, they will explain that it was never a real deadline, that was just a misunderstanding.

Leroy42

I am staggered that there seems so little push back about the Yellowhammer document. From the bits on the media tht I have read and heard, the discussion seems to revolve around whether it is base or Worst case!

Nobody seems to be outraged that Brexit has even the possibility of creating food shortages, price hikes, medicine shortages, massive tailbacks at the border. That a government can publish a document like this and the overall reaction amounts to little more than a shrug of the shoulders is baffling to me.

"We are putting in place preparations to avoid these outcomes" seems to be the government line. But no-one, that I have heard, has asked for examples. How do they deal with the medicines? Is there a cost involved, how long will it continue, when it will return to pre-Brexit levels? When will the UK actually see the benefits of Brexit?

What outcome can different parts of the public expect to see and when? Poor, middle class etc. Just yesterday the government rowed back on there visas for students (was 4 months now 2 years) so already immigration is going to go up.

Seth Brundle

Although I didn't hold out much hope for it, it is still a pity.

Legal challenge to British Brexit strategy dismissed in Belfast
One of applicants was high-profile victims’ campaigner Raymond McCord

A Belfast High Court judge has rejected an application that it would be unlawful for the British government to leave the European Union without a deal....
...
He said there was no substance to the suggestion the United Kingdom would be acting unlawfully if it withdrew from the European Union without a withdrawal agreement.

In his judgment, he referred to the “evolving, fluctuating and uncompleted Brexit saga”.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/legal-challenge-to-british-brexit-strategy-dismissed-in-belfast-1.4015929

LuckyLloyd

Leroy42 wrote: »

I am staggered that there seems so little push back about the Yellowhammer document. From the bits on the media tht I have read and heard, the discussion seems to revolve around whether it is base or Worst case!

Nobody seems to be outraged that Brexit has even the possibility of creating food shortages, price hikes, medicine shortages, massive tailbacks at the border. That a government can publish a document like this and the overall reaction amounts to little more than a shrug of the shoulders is baffling to me.

"We are putting in place preparations to avoid these outcomes" seems to be the government line. But no-one, that I have heard, has asked for examples. How do they deal with the medicines? Is there a cost involved, how long will it continue, when it will return to pre-Brexit levels? When will the UK actually see the benefits of Brexit?

What outcome can different parts of the public expect to see and when? Poor, middle class etc. Just yesterday the government rowed back on there visas for students (was 4 months now 2 years) so already immigration is going to go up.

The belief in Brexit is akin to devout religious faith. Brexit is existential for the faithful. It is beyond fact, beyond logic, beyond debate. The people voted for it on a given day so it must happen, no matter the cost or consequence.

trellheim

Its worse than that. In the worst case, with the SEM problems, if not addressed the lights actually go out in northern Ireland as we sell them most of their electricity and that market is regulated by the ECJ eventually.

(this is why the proposal a while back for a fleet of barges with gennys).

Professor Moriarty

David Sassoli, the new president of the European parliament, speaking today:

No Backstop = No Agreement.

trellheim

and- EU Parliament have ... guess what... a veto over any deal or agreement ....

trellheim

HERE WE GO FOLKS

Trust the express to spin it like this as the EU caving... lads its a fking intervention to what you wanted originally.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1177064/brexit-news-irish-border-backstop-EU-deal-boris-johnson

EU offers Northern Ireland-only backstop - a deal they pedalled from the very start...
THE European Union is ready to offer Boris Johnson the Northern Ireland-only backstop in a desperate bid to strike a Brexit deal.

[Deleted User]

Leroy42 wrote: »

I am staggered that there seems so little push back about the Yellowhammer document. From the bits on the media tht I have read and heard, the discussion seems to revolve around whether it is base or Worst case!

Nobody seems to be outraged that Brexit has even the possibility of creating food shortages, price hikes, medicine shortages, massive tailbacks at the border. That a government can publish a document like this and the overall reaction amounts to little more than a shrug of the shoulders is baffling to me.

"We are putting in place preparations to avoid these outcomes" seems to be the government line. But no-one, that I have heard, has asked for examples. How do they deal with the medicines? Is there a cost involved, how long will it continue, when it will return to pre-Brexit levels? When will the UK actually see the benefits of Brexit?

What outcome can different parts of the public expect to see and when? Poor, middle class etc. Just yesterday the government rowed back on there visas for students (was 4 months now 2 years) so already immigration is going to go up.

I agree with this. There is very little about it being discussed in an urgent manner. The Brexit runaway train is fast approaching, and many of us are in the dark as to what that will bring.

I was also a bit in the dark until six weeks ago when I was talking to a farmer from Connacht. He has beef cattle, and suddenly no factories would take them (abattoir). The cattle were approaching their sell by date. Some of them had 2 weeks to go. I never heard the outcome, but it did make me realise the ripple effect this would have on rural farming communities.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Nobody seems to be outraged that Brexit has even the possibility of creating food shortages, price hikes, medicine shortages, massive tailbacks at the border. That a government can publish a document like this and the overall reaction amounts to little more than a shrug of the shoulders is baffling to me.

Everyone with sense already knew all of that. It is obvious.

The reason folks are focusing on Base vs. Worst Case is because:

1) The Government are still lying

2) The real worst case is obviously much worse than this

Itssoeasy

trellheim wrote: »

HERE WE GO FOLKS

Trust the express to spin it like this as the EU caving... lads its a fking intervention to what you wanted originally.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1177064/brexit-news-irish-border-backstop-EU-deal-boris-johnson

The EU are offering is it ? The backstop is a solution to the red lines that the UK had and the backstop was suggested by the UK... wait for it first.

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The EU are offering is it ? The backstop is a solution to the red lines that the UK had and the backstop was suggested by the UK... wait for it first.

most people reading that have no interest in detail whatsoever - so remembering details from a few years ago which would probably have been misreported at the time is an unreal expectation.

that this was agreed but for the charge of the DUP brigade won't even have registered with most readers of that rag..

trellheim

the fact that the express are spinning it like that means its there for Boris to run with if he wants.....

Watch Steve baker's twitter for white smoke

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Trust the express to spin it like this ]

EU offers Northern Ireland-only backstop - a deal they pedalled from the very start...

Pedalled?

Shocking stuff, an alleged newspaper verging on actual illiteracy on the front page.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone with sense already knew all of that. It is obvious.

The reason folks are focusing on Base vs. Worst Case is because:

1) The Government are still lying

2) The real worst case is obviously much worse than this

Everybody didn't know. It was rumoured, it makes perfect sense if you look at it, but the government had claimed it was all 'project fear' and therefore a large amount of people see it as little more than a largely unlikely scenario. It might happen, but as Leadsom said yesterday she might be hit by a bus in the morning, the inference being that it is very unlikely to happen.

Infini

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/amber-rudd-proportional-representation-voting-system-speech-brexit

While I don't agree with her history and politics, and realise PR would give nutters like BP a bigger say, Proportional representation is more democratic, and we have seen how the UK political system has failed.

To be fair PR would mean the nutters like BP would only be able to have a more accurate amount of representation: ie small amount. It would not be able to do what the conservatives have done in the past and be able to have a majority with less than 40% of the vote.

The UK system is badly in need of a reform their media needs to be held to account for publishing blatently false or misleading headlines and articles, they need a written constitution at this point to modernise their system and purge archaic and irrelevant law from their statues and of course FPTP needs to be chucked in the bin as it's distorting the representation as well as disenfranchising voters in "safe seat" areas.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

the government had claimed it was all 'project fear' and therefore a large amount of people see it as little more than a largely unlikely scenario.

Everyone with sense knew, just like everyone with sense knew the government were lying.

The Brexiteers will continue to pretend not to know this stuff, when the reality is they knew all along but don't care as long as they get Brexit.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Everyone with sense knew, just like everyone with sense knew the government were lying.

The Brexiteers will continue to pretend not to know this stuff, when the reality is they knew all along but don't care as long as they get Brexit.

You say that, and logic would lead one to agree, but look at the headlines in the papers today. Hardly a word.

The majority of people simple don't understand what is going on, especially when the likes of Gove came out and blatantly lied when the report was first leaked and Leadsom simply dismisses the report.

When the likes of the BBC don't press this is a leading story then it is no wonder that people can easily dismiss it.

Rather than the acceptance that this will happen, people are too easily convinced that it only may happen, and even then only for a short time and sure bravado and a sense of daring-do will sort it out.

Nobody is thinking of the people already struggling to make ends meet being forced to pay more for food or electricity. Nobody is thinking about those in social care that need to pay more for medicines but for which the budgets won't be increased.

There is a significant amount of people within the UK with the 'I'm all right' attitude and this is being feed by the politicians.

Dyr

trellheim wrote: »

HERE WE GO FOLKS

Trust the express to spin it like this as the EU caving... lads its a fking intervention to what you wanted originally.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1177064/brexit-news-irish-border-backstop-EU-deal-boris-johnson

Britain victorious as Germans offer to take ownership of Dunkirk

trellheim

Jolyon Maughams been hinting at something to come out this afternoon ...

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

To be fair PR would mean the nutters like BP would only be able to have a more accurate amount of representation: ie small amount. It would not be able to do what the conservatives have done in the past and be able to have a majority with less than 40% of the vote.

The UK system is badly in need of a reform ... and of course FPTP needs to be chucked in the bin as it's distorting the representation as well as disenfranchising voters in "safe seat" areas.

As time wears on, this looks (to me, at least) like the most profound change that will come out of the Brexit Era. During the "have an election" debate at the start of the week, there was that one Tory who pointed out that the next election would be a four-way contest, and traditional Red vs. Blue make-up of Parliament would probably never be seen again.

All the recent polls show the same. While there is maybe, just maybe, an outside chance that the Tories could scrape a majority at some point in the future, the polls indicate that the next government will be controlled by either the SNP or the Lib Dems, either in the form of a coalition or through a confidence and supply agreement.

A side-effect of Brexit and Boris' failed prorogation coup has been to force Labour into coordination (if not outright collaboration) with both the LibDems and the SNP to defeat the Tories. The chances of the Lib Dems subsequently getting into bed with the Tories must be somewhere below zero; and the SNP are not known for leaning towards Conservatism either.

So it seems like the UK will have a minority Labour government for at least five years, and as I've said before, the price of support from the LibDems will be the introduction of proportional representation. This would, in fact be a boon to Labour, as the Brexit Party would be more likely to take safe seats from the Tories than Labour.