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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Frank Bullitt

Sammy Wilson is speaking on the radio right now.

Said Operation YellowHammer should be called Operation Whiteflag.

People of NI must be mortified listening to this.

Sam Russell

Gintonious wrote: »

Sammy Wilson is speaking on the radio right now.

Said Operation YellowHammer should be called Operation Whiteflag.

People of NI must be mortified listening to this.

They are big into flags in NI.

Frank Bullitt

He is still barking on, the delusion is head spinning.

Leroy42

I read the McWilliams article and I found his line pretty interesting:

The British exports more to Ireland than it does to China with its population of 1.4bn.

Inherent in that of course is the old chinese maths. If only we could sell 1 car to every person in China we would be billionaires!

And the article itself raises the reality that Ireland has used the EU far better than the UK in that we have widened our export markets, increased FDI etc whilst the UK has remained stuck in previous relationships.

Whilst I would argue that this is a pretty casual argument (it doesn't mention Financial Services for eg) I think it gets down to the nub of the Brexiteer argument. There is clearly a case that the UK has failed to move with the changing global economy in terms of where it exports and imports.

And while it may seem pretty dramatic to turn away from the EU, the thinking seems to be that it is exactly what the UK needs. Take away the comfort blanket to force UK business to go out and make new opportunities.

Frank Bullitt

Sammy now saying that there is no way the EU can put up a boarder to monitor the movement of goods. It's all scaremongering from the EU of course.

Says the boarder in the Irish Sea would hurt the Belfast Agreement, but on the Island...he just mutters off.

FrancieBrady

Gintonious wrote: »

Sammy Wilson is speaking on the radio right now.

Said Operation YellowHammer should be called Operation Whiteflag.

People of NI must be mortified listening to this.

After spending the conflict/war demanding the border be closed he now admits it is impossible.

Incredible cheek and Miriam is not fit for him tbh.

Frank Bullitt

FrancieBrady wrote: »

After spending the conflict/war demanding the border be closed he now admits it is impossible.

Incredible cheek and Miriam is not fit for him tbh.

All of this will only get worse over the next few months.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I read the McWilliams article and I found his line pretty interesting:

Inherent in that of course is the old chinese maths. If only we could sell 1 car to every person in China we would be billionaires!

And the article itself raises the reality that Ireland has used the EU far better than the UK in that we have widened our export markets, increased FDI etc whilst the UK has remained stuck in previous relationships.

Whilst I would argue that this is a pretty casual argument (it doesn't mention Financial Services for eg) I think it gets down to the nub of the Brexiteer argument. There is clearly a case that the UK has failed to move with the changing global economy in terms of where it exports and imports.

And while it may seem pretty dramatic to turn away from the EU, the thinking seems to be that it is exactly what the UK needs. Take away the comfort blanket to force UK business to go out and make new opportunities.

This isn't entirely fair. The UK didn't treat the EU as a comfort blanket; in fact UK international trade has boomed during their membership of the EU; it's vastly higher, as a percentage of GDP, than it ever was during even the most golden era of the British empire. The UK is more of a global trading nation than at any other time in its history.

It's true that they sell more to us than they do to China. But, then, we sell more to them than we do to China. In neither case is this a surprising or a bad thing. It's a combination of (a) geography, and (b) Chinese trade policy. (Mostly (a), if we're honest.) The notion that by Brexiting the UK can persuade China to change its trade policy to advantage the UK is not a terrribly compelling one.

JPF82

Someone on BBC radio now when he was losing his argument just started challenging the host with the whole "Do you not believe in Britain, do you not believe in the British people?"

2 world wars, 1 world cup mentality. "EU intransigence" causing all the problems.

Stop moaning ffs

Gintonious wrote: »

All of this will only get worse over the next few months.

The upshot/silver lining is people like himself will be made to eat their words when and if brexit does eventually happen and the realities and consequences start to take hold. Hopefully their respective constituents remember all this come time for the next election.

Frank Bullitt

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The upshot/silver lining is people like himself will be made to eat their words when and if brexit does eventually happen and the realities and consequences start to take hold. Hopefully their respective constituents remember all this come time for the next election.

I do hope so, he was challenged on the poll results from the weekend that people in NI favour the backstop etc, and he had no response to it in any real form.

There was a very sobering point made about the boarder. If we do not ensure the safety of the single market, then we will be left out on our own, so we have to ensure that we protect the single market.

McGiver

Enzokk wrote: »

In a another example of blaming the leak instead of the message that was leaked, No.10 is furious that their own reports are out there for all to read.

No 10 furious at leak of paper predicting shortages after no-deal Brexit

What I found interesting is not that they are trying to distance themselves from the report, Gove is saying that in the 3 weeks that they came in things have changed because they are throwing £2bn at the problem. How throwing money at a problem that you cannot control, port checks in other countries, seems to have escaped Gove.

It is that some of the warnings has not been relayed to the associations that seems to think it is important for them to have this relayed to them.

So very much head in the sand stuff from the UK.

I think at this stage of the Brexit cult evolution and coming of Orwellian government in the UK, it will be labelled as Project Fear, fake news, fake news and again fake news aka "The Trump Method".

I don't see any evidence of public organising demonstrations or marches to protest this. I think they'll crash out, the government are intent on doing that, 35-40% of population support it, 30% don't care at all and 25% are remainers who are too weak to protest and are let's say lukewarm at best overall (given that the campaign was convicted of breaking law, there was foreign collusion, lies, industrial scale of social media manipulation, government stopping investigation and trying to bend constitution - all very serious).

Pedro K

Gintonious wrote: »

I do hope so, he was challenged on the poll results from the weekend that people in NI favour the backstop etc, and he had no response to it in any real form.

There was a very sobering point made about the boarder. If we do not ensure the safety of the single market, then we will be left out on our own, so we have to ensure that we protect the single market.

What station was the interview on, please?

storker

Leroy42 wrote: »

And while it may seem pretty dramatic to turn away from the EU, the thinking seems to be that it is exactly what the UK needs. Take away the comfort blanket to force UK business to go out and make new opportunities.

New opportunities which Ireland took advantage of while in the EU. But according to Brexiteers, that's not possible. :rolleyes:

trellheim

I'm convinced Number 10 was aware of the leak.

Allows them to react to (the inevitable ) EU disinterest this week by saying the leak undermined Boris's position.

Also allows them to gauge reaction to doomsday scenario.

No doubt in my mind, Cummings/Johnson/Give were aware what was coming.

They even set it up after the election by say leaks would not be tolerated.

Mandatory Yes Minister Quote " the ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top" ( must rewatch that series, it is absolutely timeless )

If it got leaked then Cummings leaked it , I've been watching the lobby like a hawk to see what they are peddling , this is the attack grid as someone said above at a certain cohort of MPs to get back in line.

On another topic, has anyone seen Johnson do open interviews recently beyond selfies/vox pops , apparently he can't be trusted on his own atm

prawnsambo

Pedro K wrote: »

What station was the interview on, please?

RTE Radio 1 I assume, seeing as it was Miriam O'Callaghan.

54and56

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The upshot/silver lining is people like himself will be made to eat their words when and if brexit does eventually happen and the realities and consequences start to take hold. Hopefully their respective constituents remember all this come time for the next election.

I'm afraid the Brexit base will be fed (and happily swallow) a load of mantra which will basically explain away any problems as being something the EU didn't have to do but is choosing to do to punish the UK but we'll show them the battle of Britain spirit etc etc and anyone questioning this mantra will be labelled a "collaborator" or "traitor" etc.

Massive delays and tail backs at Calais = French side imposing unnecessary bureaucracy and delays.

Welsh lamb sales collapse = EU refusing to sign a GATT 24 arrangement which would see a 10 year stand still simply because they want to punish the UK

UK manufacturers make thousands of people redundant = EU bureaucracy deliberately disrupting the JIT supply chains modern manufacturers rely on just to punish the UK

NI farmers have to pour hundreds of millions of gallons of milk down the drain and cull dairy herds because they cannot access processing plants in ROI due to tariffs and logistical challenges of keeping NI and ROI sourced milk separate post Brexit - RoI imposing punitive regulations and tariffs on NI to try to force a United Ireland.

DUP - "We didn't surrender to the IRA so we're not going to surrender to the EU" blah blah blah

And so on........

storker

JPF82 wrote: »

Someone on BBC radio now when he was losing his argument just started challenging the host with the whole "Do you not believe in Britain, do you not believe in the British people?"

2 world wars, 1 world cup mentality. "EU intransigence" causing all the problems.

Sounds familiar...

"We now need national socialist ardor rather than professional ability to settle matters in the east"
- Adolf Hitler

For those who are believers in Godwin's Law, I'm just highlighting the similarity in logic, not saying that Brexiteers are as bad as Hitler, etc... The laws of supply and demand and of commerce and logistics won't care about how much someone believes in Britain today, any more than bullets and shells cared about the strength of someone's national socialist beliefs in the 1940s.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Mandatory Yes Minister Quote " the ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top" ( must rewatch that series, it is absolutely timeless )

If it got leaked then Cummings leaked it , I've been watching the lobby like a hawk to see what they are peddling , this is the attack grid as someone said above at a certain cohort of MPs to get back in line.

On another topic, has anyone seen Johnson do open interviews recently beyond selfies/vox pops , apparently he can't be trusted on his own atm

Actually the books; Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister are sometimes better than the TV series imo. The narrative adds something that the TV series couldn't do. There's also little snippets from 'private papers' included that are hilarious.

I think it's less to do with trusting Johnson and more with managing the message. Awkward questions from journalists are... well... awkward.

Frank Bullitt

Pedro K wrote: »

What station was the interview on, please?

It was Miriam O'Callaghans show.

Stop moaning ffs

Where to even begin with this??? A border in the sea would be catastrophic for the Northern Ireland economy apparently. Give my head peace.

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1163170902739161088?s=21

trellheim

todays fun with numbers

euro to sterling .915996

Paddy Power Bets

2nd Ref in 2019 NO 1/25, Yes 15/2

2nd VONC in 2019 Yes 1/14 No 6/1

No Deal Brexit in 2019 : YES 13/10, (anything else) 4/7

The Trellheim special : Queen to take up permanent residence in Ireland : 150/1

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit

AlmightyCushion

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Where to even begin with this??? A border in the sea would be catastrophic for the Northern Ireland economy apparently. Give my head peace.

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1163170902739161088?s=21

In reality it would likely be the exact opposite. Northern Ireland would both be in the UK and the single market. It would see loads of companies setting up there to take advantage of that. It would probably be the best thing to happen to the Northern Ireland economy.

Stop moaning ffs

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

In reality it would likely be the exact opposite. Northern Ireland would both be in the UK and the single market. It would see loads of companies setting up there to take advantage of that. It would probably be the best thing to happen to the Northern Ireland economy.

The blind dogs in the street know this. Everyone in NI knows this too. Which it’s why it’s so baffling the DUP don’t get one over on everyone by backing it.
They’ll be single handedly to blame for the outcome.

AlmightyCushion

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The blind dogs in the street know this. Everyone in NI knows this too. Which it’s why it’s so baffling the DUP don’t get one over on everyone by backing it.
They’ll be single handedly to blame for the outcome.

Nah, just like all other extremely pro brexit people, they'll just blame it on the big, bad, un-elected bogeymen in the EU.

Stop moaning ffs

Corbyn promising another referendum if labour get in after the next election.
Good luck with that Jeremy.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's true that they sell more to us than they do to China. But, then, we sell more to them than we do to China. In neither case is this a surprising or a bad thing. It's a combination of (a) geography, and (b) Chinese trade policy. (Mostly (a), if we're honest.) The notion that by Brexiting the UK can persuade China to change its trade policy to advantage the UK is not a terrribly compelling one.

But we are not pretending that we can replace much of the 51% of our exports to the continental EU with markets like China.

The Single Market was the single biggest ever boon to the UK economy. Although cut off by the Channel it allowed the UK to integrate into supply chains with nearby prosperous markets. The extent of their lunacy in losing thay is hard to describe.

McGiver

ath262 wrote: »

some interesting stats mention in a link included in that article, a UK Parliament / House of Commons Library report on EU trade published July this year, some key point include
The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports).

UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).

Wales, followed by Northern Ireland and the North East of England had the highest percentage of goods exports going to the EU of all the countries and regions in the UK in 2018.

Sounds like the greatest impact will be on some of the poorest regions on the UK

It's 55% if you include EFTA i.e. count the whole EEA.
And it's 65% if you include EU enabled FTAs with third countries.

swampgas

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

In reality it would likely be the exact opposite. Northern Ireland would both be in the UK and the single market. It would see loads of companies setting up there to take advantage of that. It would probably be the best thing to happen to the Northern Ireland economy.

But that potential economic success must be terrifying for the DUP. A scenario where NI is successful with a border in the Irish sea, with NI closely aligned with their old enemy across the border, combined with a GB economy likely sunk into recession, would mean that cooperation with Ireland and the EU would be a much more attractive option for many in NI than sticking with Westminster.

Their supporters might start to think the unthinkable, and start to consider whether a united Ireland is really such a bad idea.

Given an existential threat like that, the DUP's attitude is quite predictable. They must feel like they are looking into the abyss.

McGiver

Jeremy Corbyn:

While Brexit is the framework of the crisis we face, the problems facing our country run much deeper.
...
Labour offers the real change of direction the country needs: a radical programme to rebuild and transform communities and public services, invest in the green jobs and high tech industries of the future, and take action to tackle inequality and climate crisis.

Whilst I agree with the Labour policy in general and agree that UK faces huge issues, I maintain he's an idiot and/or a liar - if they crash out there's no way they can fund the 'radical rebuild programme'. None. Zero. And also no time as all gov/budget focus will be on firefighting.